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SontaranStratagem
02 Jan 19 18:52
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Date Joined: 30 Aug 17
| Topic/replies: 14,089 | Blogger: SontaranStratagem's blog
Horses the big one?

Football seems to be no better in some games, better off backing with the bookie?
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Report mouse muldoon • January 2, 2019 6:55 PM GMT
Exchanges best unless you are a master of disguise or have an army of footsoldiers.
Report McCoy Carp • January 2, 2019 7:30 PM GMT
https://www.proformracing.com/NEWS/230/bookies-vs-exchange-prices-surprising...
Report moisok • January 2, 2019 7:32 PM GMT
shirley, with soccerball one just picks out the winners and those who put the pig skin in the onion bag?
Report SontaranStratagem • January 2, 2019 7:41 PM GMT
Page not working Mccoy Carp
Report McCoy Carp • January 2, 2019 7:43 PM GMT
Don't get it, I open link in new tab and it works for me & don't think you have to be logged in or anything.
Report scandanavian_haven • January 2, 2019 7:47 PM GMT
the forum has been playing up for a while, this happens every now and again, always sorts itself out.
Report Escapee • January 2, 2019 7:50 PM GMT
If acknowledge that Bookmakers don't pay enough to retain intelligent people who know what they're doing, and you wish to exploit that, then betting against a bookie is profitable although it has logistical problems ( being limited etc ).

But if you're above average intelligence and prepared to work at it, then the market depth of an exchange is far more profitable.

or you can just be a muggle and lose on both and blame someone/something else for losing.
Report mouse muldoon • January 2, 2019 7:51 PM GMT
Exchanges with a bot.
Report Escapee • January 2, 2019 7:51 PM GMT
*if 'you' acknowledge....
Report McCoy Carp • January 2, 2019 7:52 PM GMT
Basically the article is saying night before prices beat early morning prices (8.30 am) beat mid morning prices (10.30 am) beat BSP beat SP in that order providing your bookmaker offers BOG. It seems less and less boomakers pricing up night before with BOG & quite a few leave it until 10 am now when their card has been marked and value gone.
Report SontaranStratagem • January 2, 2019 7:52 PM GMT
I'm never likely to make profit but was intrigued by what would be better out of the two

Exchanges seem to offer bigger prices and with the place betting it looks the better of the two though imo
Report Escapee • January 2, 2019 7:58 PM GMT
@Sontaran

It's a situational thing
I.E.
if 3 places pay,
and there are 2 hot favourites ( say 4/5 and 6/5 ) and the next horse is 14's (This is a fast disappearing bookie 'rick' situation)
then betting the 14's to place on the bookies will give you better odds than on an exchange
Report McCoy Carp • January 2, 2019 8:03 PM GMT
One thing with just betting on the exchange - it holds my bankroll. It's easier to manage my money plus I can put bets on a lot quicker rather than checking oddschecker logging into different accounts and placing bets. Plus if you're automated, once it's set up you don't have to do anything. Also you can lay, bet in running, arb etc. I occasionally do the 1st, never the other 2. Single win bets on the horses, (no ew or place nonsense) with the aim of hitting a big BSP once in a while - that's where the exchange really scores.
Report SontaranStratagem • January 2, 2019 8:08 PM GMT
Cheers escapee

Mccoy

Its when it comes to singles I'm more intrigued

Like backing Wolves tonight in a single would have been better with the bookie as the 5% commission on the exchanges would have meant less profit
Report Escapee • January 2, 2019 8:11 PM GMT
Hey MoCoy Carp.. Happy

I've got some vague memories of us getting on quite well in the distant past. maybe the poker forum? (and old cranky 2005->2009ish Betfair poker)

You're name rings a bell, but 'wear and tear' on my memory retrieval systems is clouding any firm stuff at the moment.

Does my name jog any of your memories?
Report mouse muldoon • January 2, 2019 8:12 PM GMT
The name escapes him.
Report McCoy Carp • January 2, 2019 8:19 PM GMT
Sontaran, I only use the exchange for horse racing betting so I don't know. If you manage to find a big price winner on the horses then there's a good chance the BSP will be better than the bookies SP - sometimes a lot better.

escapee, possibly, but I'm more likely to have remembered your poker alias. I was rockme. What great times it was for poker back then on Betfair.
Report DenzilPenberthy • January 2, 2019 8:20 PM GMT
In response o the OP - If ANYONE can bet early prices on horse racing i.e 5pm the day before they should because it's virtually impossible to lose even if you are clueless and if you can't win doing that it's time to pack in.
Betting on exchanges alone is far more difficult to win even the hero of some Hugh Taylor (not me I'm far better) says he'd be happy with a 5% profit on racetime markets and disappointed with the ROI he hits on morning prices if he was betting the day before,this should hold true for everybody as it's the freedom to bet at a price which stops the progression of horse racing punters and begins the demise of so many.
Report DenzilPenberthy • January 2, 2019 8:22 PM GMT
*stopping of freedom*
Report mouse muldoon • January 2, 2019 8:26 PM GMT
5% is a grand return in the last few minutes if you can tip plenty in.
Report mouse muldoon • January 2, 2019 8:27 PM GMT
Although if you're 40% PC you'll still be in the net with that.
Report Escapee • January 2, 2019 8:28 PM GMT
but I'm more likely to have remembered your poker alias.

If you do, let me know as I can't remember it grin:]

But rockme, yea another bell rings... but nothing other than you were a winner, riding the wave ( I was probably 'better' at poker than you at the time but, you had nous )  and a nice bloke,  comes back from memory so far Crazy

anyway, hi and hope you've enjoyed the gambling life etc.
Report DenzilPenberthy • January 2, 2019 8:37 PM GMT
A fairly usual example mouse is that horse I mentioned the other day,Ladbrokes and Corals had it 8/1 which is ridiculous if they've got it ready so I've been out to 2 Laddies and 2 Corals can't get a penny on won't even ring for prices just a fobbing off,get back someones backing it on the exchange @ 6.6 with some £10s at higher so I'm then grateful to get some on @ 7.4/7.6.
Without freedom to bet I'm already 2x stake liability down for nothing 25% on the price,fwiw probably having a saver on the 2nd fav in case it gets loose as it's got good gate speed and there aint much other pace.
Report McCoy Carp • January 2, 2019 8:41 PM GMT
Yeah did ok, but got bored of it (and lost my edge) in the end. Haven't played for 4 or 5 years - maybe more. Used to love mtts but dread the thought now of sitting at a computer for 5-6 hours to get a decent payout. Betfair used to put on some fanatstic promotions (especially around Christmas) and live tournaments. Don't know what the hell happened to the poker on here. The poker forum is dead, it might as well not exist, no one uses it anymore and yet it use to be buzzing.
Report mouse muldoon • January 2, 2019 8:45 PM GMT
No more than you'd expect, Den. UK's bad enough, wouldn't have thought it worth the shoe leather trying to get on the Dubai stuff at that time in the shops. Looks a warm order anyway, £561.78 matched on it out of market total £693.37.
Report mouse muldoon • January 2, 2019 8:47 PM GMT
Just think, the home punters in Sheikhmoland aint allowed a dirham on.
Report DenzilPenberthy • January 2, 2019 8:51 PM GMT
They'll not need to I'd imagine
Report McCoy Carp • January 2, 2019 8:52 PM GMT
Laugh
Report Escapee • January 2, 2019 8:53 PM GMT
My most epic memory of Betfair poker was sitting down at 2 of the $100 $1-$2 nl tables and getting up with $3,400 from one and $1,250 from the other after a couple of hours 'work'

wow the $100 games were so soft in those days, the peak of OMG how easy is this? I guess.
Report McCoy Carp • January 2, 2019 9:05 PM GMT
They had a $50k mtt game that was on @ 8pm weekdays, which I managed to win one night - $8500. Was never any good at cash. Use to like playing it when I was drunk which was fatal.
Report SontaranStratagem • January 3, 2019 10:38 AM GMT
Just done a little research in regards to cover betting or win/placing on the exchanges

Its actually better to cover bet them on 365 if playing with level stakes Crazy

Say £50 on a cover bet 2 or 3 places as oppose to £25 Win £25 place on here for example

So depends on way of betting as well
Report SontaranStratagem • January 3, 2019 10:43 AM GMT
Not all horses though

First Excel for example in the 2:00 Soutwell is better to cover bet on 365

But Always Amazing is better to back win and place on the exchanges

Can't be simple can it Laugh need multiple accounts
Report donny osmond • January 3, 2019 10:51 AM GMT
got to take best price, if you can, wherever you can get it.

its not always on exchange, but usually is.


loyalty is expensive to the loyal these days....

..look after yourself and and the pennies will look after the pounds!
Report The Leopard • January 3, 2019 11:40 AM GMT
I noticed Paddy Power/Betfair are running adds on LBC for the exchange....looks like they are going to do more promotion of it.
Report McCoy Carp • January 3, 2019 11:57 AM GMT
I see Betfair have amended their BOG from the night before to 8am day of the race, not that it affects me as I'm excluded Plain
Report The Leopard • January 3, 2019 12:46 PM GMT
Betfair reveals their problem with their BOG :
.

Report The Leopard • January 3, 2019 12:52 PM GMT
Mr Squirrel : " I've let the Squirrel Nation down Plain "
Report mouse muldoon • January 3, 2019 4:02 PM GMT
9.0, Den.
Report DenzilPenberthy • January 3, 2019 4:06 PM GMT
Not a good sign given the possible negatives
Report DenzilPenberthy • January 3, 2019 4:07 PM GMT
Couldn't have left it above 4/1 though
Report mouse muldoon • January 3, 2019 4:09 PM GMT
GL
Report DenzilPenberthy • January 3, 2019 4:10 PM GMT
Cheers,if it gets wallopped I'll be on next time especially after watching that Lingfield run again.
Report DenzilPenberthy • January 3, 2019 4:17 PM GMT
Next time it is then
Report mouse muldoon • January 3, 2019 4:17 PM GMT
Sad looks hard work, that dirt stuff.
Report SontaranStratagem • January 3, 2019 4:18 PM GMT
It does pay to shop around and get the best possible price and/or scenario where you'd be better off

Exchanges charge 5% so that needs to be taken into account, I'd have been worser off today on the exchanges after the commission

Good job it lost CryCryLaugh
Report SontaranStratagem • January 3, 2019 4:18 PM GMT
Southwell, Mouse?
Report DenzilPenberthy • January 3, 2019 4:19 PM GMT

Jan 3, 2019 -- 4:17PM, mouse muldoon wrote:


looks hard work, that dirt stuff.


Not bad to bet on though because of the number of specialists just need the right one on the right day as ever,far easier than the turf there in the long run.

Report mouse muldoon • January 3, 2019 4:20 PM GMT
Meydan

2 different races from the start, rear division all looked to be struggling.
Report DenzilPenberthy • January 3, 2019 4:25 PM GMT
Just watched the replay ideally you need to travel round there (similar to Southwell) which ATR usually does but it didn't go well at all rear no chance from just before the turn.
Report DenzilPenberthy • January 3, 2019 4:26 PM GMT
They'll probably try and get it in a turf race now because even stepping back up to 7 won't help unless you can travel handy.
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