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The famous political pollster Nate Silver predicts an 85% chance of Democrats taking control of the House of Representatives on Nov 6. That's a pretty confident forecast, but he was spectacularly wrong about Trump's chances in 2016 so who knows?
Anybody prepared to stick their neck out with a prediction? Back along all of the deranged Trump haters on here were crowing about a "blue wave" being on the cards - which might happen of course as it's quite common in the midterm elections for the opposition to do very well - but the loony lefties have gone all quiet about that possibilty lately. It's like they're not so sure anymore.
Anybody prepared to stick their neck out with a prediction? Back along all of the deranged Trump haters on here were crowing about a "blue wave" being on the cards - which might happen of course as it's quite common in the midterm elections for the opposition to do very well - but the loony lefties have gone all quiet about that possibilty lately. It's like they're not so sure anymore.
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Maybe they don't want to answer if you're just going to call them loony lefties, libtards etc. Anyway, whichever party is in power as President will normally take a hit in the midterms. The Senate should be safe for the GOP as more dems are up for re-election than GOP in the senate. I remember reading 75% for dems to take the house not so long ago, and I'd be surprised if the dems don't do that,though perhaps not the blue wave some expect. As you say though the pollsters weren't correct on Trump.
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Shame bf doesn't seem to be offering individual race markets.
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Many political pundits define an election 'wave' as any where one party gains twenty or more seats.
It would be rather interesting if Democrats gained twenty-two seats next Tuesday, technically a 'blue wave' result, but not enough to wrest control of the House from Republicans. |
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I was heavily involved for the 2016 election, when Hillary was 1.1x om the night. Those crazy prices were entirely informed by polls and the likes of Silver, with some pollsters giving The Don as little as 2% chance of winning. Why would we now believe those same pollsters? Why will they be any better at picking up the shy Republican voters? Ignore them, they talk tosh, there`s a red tsunamicoming!
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DEMOCRTATS to have a 15 seat majority in the house and GOP gain one seat in the senate is my podiction
by rights with all the blue hype the DEMS should really sweep both houses and if they do not it is a failure on average the presidents party loses 30 seats on average.Bush managed to gain seats in 2002 but that was after 9/11 which was a factor in the midterms. so we will see what happens no doubt if Trump loses seats the liberal media will be ecstatic even though history says the governing party will lose seats |
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i believe there is a lot of secret Trump voters who the pollsters can not factor into the polls.i think this happened in 2016 and we will see if it happens in 2020.mid terms are different when many local issues come to the fore
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Like I said earlier it would be hard for them to take both houses purely down to the fact that the dems are defending more seats than the reps in 2018. They simply don't have many seats to contest in the senate.
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Still waiting for a prediction from the o/p. Kudos for fitting deranged, loony lefties and haters into a sentence but you omitted mob fyi.
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Tbt's red pencil not the sharpest in the box i'm afraid.
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