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SATURDAY 18th MARCH 2017 Share the results
Show in draw order
LUNCHTIME DRAW - 12:51:20
23
29
30
43
45
47
9
TEATIME DRAW - 18:02:47
27
29
30
43
45
47
9
Previous
Day
Fri 17th
Show in draw order
LUNCHTIME DRAW - 12:51:20
23
29
30
43
45
47
9
TEATIME DRAW - 18:02:47
27
29
30
43
45
47
9
Previous
Day
Fri 17th
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Replies: 42
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Absolutely unbelievable
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Wow. Some maths whizz will be able to tell us the odds of that happening.
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Has one result a bearing on the others?
I've no idea what they mean. |
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Is this a random lottery draw?
If so any two successive sets have the same probability as any other two successive sets. |
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do they just do these things twice a day , years since i was a betting shop regular but thought they were every 15 mins or so
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yorkshire rose my fav
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It's a random draw done twice a day which is broadcasted from SIS studios to all betting shops live
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So it's like the national lottery. To predict two consecutive cards is going to be massive odds especially in draw order. Isn't one card in any order something like 14 million to 1? In draw order, you would have to multiply that by (I think) six factorial. So for two consecutive cards in order it would be that number (14million x 6 factorial) squared divided by 2. Adding in the extra number 9 you would multiply again by 43 squared.
It's a long time since I studied stats so I'm very rusty. If any statisticians could give their opinion I would be obliged. |
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That won't be in the order they came out.
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Good to see you posting again, Huggy, after a long absence. Hope you're in reasonable fettle.
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That's why I multiplied by 6 factorial Aka. The National Lottery (6 from 49 in any order) is around 14 million to one.
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u back on the payout huggy ?
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especially in draw order
Sorry Foinavon saw that and never read the rest. |
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No probs Aka, do you think the rest of it is OK?
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49!/6
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thats wrong sorry had two many
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I think it's about 94 x 10^21
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@Foinavon
When I said I never read the rest actually what I meant was I couldn't get my head round it. Too taxing for my brain nowadays.  |
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It's tough for me too Aka
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From first principles ((49!/42!)^2)/2 = 9.37 x 10^22
Which is more or less the same answer as I got by the circuitous "National Lottery estimate" route. |
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I'd normally call bollocks on these "omg what are the chances of that" posts, but when you move in to the 8 billion to one range it becomes far more likely that there's been a ****-up of some kind. Like if you bet on black 20 times in a row and red came up every time - is it now more likely the game is ****?
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Dave I was in Vegas a few years ago and 17 came up 6 times in a row. I can't be bothered to work out the odds of that happening but it must be astronomical.
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2,565,726,409/1
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no kenny the first 17 could have been any number, ie the event was a number coming up 6 times in a row, so any number probability 1 repeating once odds 37-1 (2 zeroes in vegas) etc.
So its ~79 million to one 38^5. Funnily enough there's another vegas story that illustrates my point. Someone won a multi-million dollar keno jackpot where I think you have to get something redic like 15 numbers from 20 drawn from 1-80. It was so unlikely that they investigated everyone involved and quickly discovered insider collusion. I know weird things happen, but I still think that in the case of these 49s numbers the probability of some sort of glitch is much larger that the event occuring at random. |
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That seems VERY unlikely.
Which would mean there are doubts about the national game, given that it works the same way. |
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don't know how it works studyform - is it a strict and open as the nat lotto? My only point really is when something occurs that as unusual as this, it's worth a look at the procedure.
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They have a machine like the national lottery, and an independent adjudicator loading the balls and running the draw!
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It's shown live on SIS twice a day (used to be 3 times in the summer til a few years ago).
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dave, I know it's double zero and I've accounted for that. So it's 37x37x37x37x37x37. Don't complicate it.
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Dave I was in Vegas a few years ago and 17 came up 6 times in a row. I can't be bothered to work out the odds of that happening but it must be astronomical.
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I don't do the 47s because I don't know which balls are non triers and I am sure the draw affects the result.
I remember being in a casino when 0 came up in 3 out of 5 spins. All the systems players were wiped out and a little old lady who put her 50p chips on 0 and 3 thought she was in heaven. |
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I saw Eddie Large in a Bradford casino in 81. He was with Norman Collier,they'd been appearing in Aladdin at the Bradford Alhambra, with Syd of course. Very funny man, out of character. After changing cash for chips 3 times, he threw his 4th deposit on the table and said there goes this week's rent. After finally losing all his deposits, he started to leave the table, and muttered, I can't believe my luck. If I was in a marching band I'd be the pianist, a brilliant line I use now and then.
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Don't know what they're like these days, but when I worked at SIS it would have been easy to rig or pre-record a draw and have it right off, especially if the rampant homosexualist who used to be the invigilator had his eye on you.
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kenny, the event is a "number" coming up 6 times in a row not specifically "17" coming up 6 times in a row. Slippy Blue would still have made the observation if 5 or 32 had come up 6 times in a row. So the first roll is not counted in calculating the probability.
00 0 1-36 are 38 numbers so the odds are 38^5 not 37^5. |
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An invigilator from a big accounting firm can hardly be very motivated. He was thinking that at this point in his career he'd be taking large backhanders from the likes of Enron and he is actually the equivalent of a circus clown.
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I'll have a think about that over a pint tonight, dave.
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Basically Slippy was wondering what the odds of a number coming up 6 times in a row, dave, so my answer is correct as far as I can see.
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your answer is "correct" (tho you are still wrong about the 2 zeroes) for someone asking what are the odds of specifically 17 coming up 6 times in a row, but that isn't the phenomenon observed. The phenomenon observed is a number repeating 5 times.
In the OP we aren't considering the odds of 23, 29 etc coming up and then 27 29 etc coming up after, just the odds of the second set. The first occurrence is ignored just like in Slippy's observation. |