Is Hilary worth a big bet at 1.21?

Should be 1.05, so I'd say yes.

But the Brexit victory means that you just can't trust people to do the right thing. So...

big bet no way,big drift Thursday morning when Trump tells everyone his big secret on Wednesday night.

I've had 1000+ bets on it  so i guess i have followed it more closely .

1.21 seems about right to me now (i closed my bets ages ago) .

She should win comfortably, but one thing i think underestimated all the way through is just how disliked Hilary is...

Pollsters using projections from 2012 are tending to assume people who came out to vote for Obama will be there for Hilary , many will not be .

Why is she so unpopular?  Just that email thing?

She looks fookin scarey to me rob.

No , the email thing is only such a big deal because she was so hated already.

She is seen as a phony  ( check out how her accent has changed so many times ) hated by conservatives as the archetypal East Coast Lberal , not liked by many liberals as she has been a servant of Wall Street.

There is a strong dislike of her personally.

Another reason for caution is that Trump's scandals are not surprising . It is not nearly as damaging as if these tapes had come out for someone running as a family values guy .

she;s the lesser of two evils, that's all. she'll celebrate like she;s popular but she beat a baby in a wig

need to find MD to lay off my bet

shes also a woman and how many males will vote for her ?

too many unknowns imo to lump on


chances are you will get a decent bet as exit polls are released after the vote

rob dylan, there`s a good thread on the `Specials` forum, just above `Chit Chat; I think it might answer some of your questions, particularly in relation to Hillary`s crimes.

She's sick in many ways? I think she'll cross the line and then hand it over to president Kaine. Started with a kaine end with a kaine?

It started with a kiss, I never thought it would come to this

When I was in the US in March, I was surprised by the number of reasonable-seeming people saying they were as bad as each other (they were both big favourites by then for the primaries, I think). Both Democrats and Republicans seemed disbelieving that they were the options they had. I heard this a lot:

Q)How can you tell when Hillary Clinton is lying?
A)Her lips move.

Not that funny, but it shows how people think.

The best reason to pile onto Hillary is that I'm surprised how little she's shortened since the Trump groping stuff came out (Trump was 5.6 at the end of the second debate and is 6.4 now). Women make up half of the electorate and you'd have thought that "grab them by the p*ssy) would not endear him to them. Also, fivethirtyeight.com's three models now have Clinton at 85%, 88.3% and 90.3% (see below).

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

I think it is closer than that

Yes I know Trump has lost a lot of votes, because of these sexual groping allegations, but even so.

Trump's wife has forgiven him, I think others may. If you believe any of them in the first place of course.

I don't!

I am not a good judge I have to admit though

I just think Trump would be a much better President than Clinton, which is what the vote is for.

I think she's a shoe in but is her health a worry? What if she drops dead before the election, is your bet void or is it just tough luck? If the bet was voided I'd have a couple of quid on her.

It just shows how crazy the election is when you can buy your way to President.

If I were you, I would wait until after or around the 3rd debate. There may well be some fluctuations during and just after, as the effect of the candidates' performance begins to register with the public. At present 1.19 is getting down to the levels that you would ideally want to lay at. However, if you really want to cash in at this stage. maybe you should consider putting up a proportion of your satke at 1.23 - 1.26 ready to catch any spikes that may be caused by any irrational perception of whoever has "won" the debate or any Wikileaks hysteria, trash talk or exagerrated rumours about health etc. Last night there was an item on Newsnight about Clinton Under Secretary of State Patrick Kennedy trying to get the FBI to change the classification of some of her E-mails. Analysts thought that this would be damaging in any other election. But the whole thing hardly affected the market at all. I got some 1.23 taken this morning despite this supposedly damaging info, and Hillary price quickly fell back down to 1.2. It seems likely that Trump fans will react to anything that could possibly cast doubt on her credentials, and may cause a spike or two in the next few days. For example when Wikileaks made an announcement a couple of weeks ago, there was a lot of hype about it and the price went right up to about 4.4 even though there was absolutely nothing in the "announcement". I doubt if you will be able to get those kind of prices again. And, needless to say you won't get the 1.6 plus that was available when she was supposedly at death's door. But you might be able to get much better than 1.21, as Trump tries to fling as much mud as he can before his campaign implodes.

Oct 18, 2016 -- 10:59AM, Ovalman. wrote:

I think she's a shoe in but is her health a worry? What if she drops dead before the election, is your bet void or is it just tough luck? If the bet was voided I'd have a couple of quid on her.It just shows how crazy the election is when you can buy your way to President.

That can't be a serious consideration, surely. Even if you assume she has a 10% chance of dying per year, the odds of her kicking the bucket in the next 3 weeks would be about 0.6%. I think that would be a pretty heavy overestimate, too. I mean, I guess running for president is very stressful, so she's more likely to die next week than in an average week, but on the other hand she doesn't seem to be at death's door yet. I'd say the odds of her dying before the election would be around 0.2%, or less.

Other things are more likely, e.g. Assange really has something on her and manages to get it out before the election. The big concern for me would be the standard accumulation of unknown unknowns that make backing heavy favourites a bit worrying.

Don`t know how the bookies would treat Hillary backers` were she unable to continue, but all bets on here would stand, definitely not voided.

Should either she or Trump drop out for whatever reason, who would replace them would depend on when it happened;
Before the election? Nov 8
Between the election and the Electoral College voting? Dec 19
After that, but before the Congress counting of those votes? Jan 6
Between then and the inauguration? Jan 20

Procedures are in place for each eventuality, and the two parties have entirely different ways of doing things.

Yes I know Trump has lost a lot of votes, because of these sexual groping allegations, but even so.

Trump's wife has forgiven him, I think others may.


will trump be giving the others a life of luxury ?

right up to about 4.4

Correction: about 1.44

I think I am right in saying the moderator on wednesday is more right leaning so Hillary will be unlikely to get as easy run as before.

I think Trump has performed well in the first two events and I suspect he will win wednesday's unless he goes of on a tangent.

With this being the final debate it will probably get decent viewing figures so there may be a clinton drift after.

Personally I think Clinton is too short at the momenet, yes she has the backing of the main stream media and Trump has all kinds of bad publicity at the moment but I wonder whether the effect is as big on the public as the media are suggesting.

Polls in recent times have been very unpredictable and in a two horse race it wont take many to swing the election. I suspect there are plenty of people who will vote trump but will never admit it.

Clinton will probably win but 1.2 is a bit short for me at the moment. There is also the possibility of another wild card coming out of the woodwork.

donny osmond  • October 18, 2016 6:08 PM BST 
Yes I know Trump has lost a lot of votes, because of these sexual groping allegations, but even so.
Trump's wife has forgiven him, I think others may.

will trump be giving the others a life of luxury ?

No he wont, which is why they are miffed. When you are as rich and powerful as Trump there is no need to grope anybody,

unless they want it

^^^Correct, re. the moderator. He`s from Fox, the only US nationwide  TV station to be supporting Trump, and it`s the first time anyone from Fox has done it. So, we surely can hope for a bit of help from him, relative to the last two, at least!

As with Brexit, there are a number of `shy` voters, too inhibited to admit to pollsters that they support Trump, but most online polls, where voters don`t have to face the questioner, have him not only winning, but romping it.

Still three weeks to go, with who knows what ammunition from either side, but particularly from Assange; another health scare, even the possibility of being shot at!
Don`t forget if, for whatever reason, Trump was no longer her opponent, she`d lose for sure.

All in all , far far too many negatives to make her price anything but a lay, especially now, with that third debate just 24 hours away.

there is a song called Trump Card by Bag a tell.

ever noticed if you declare yourself the winner before the end, people jump to your side.
nobody wants to be on the losing side.

when kennedy beat nixon the vote was fairly even

when kennedy got shot an opinion poll found 75% of
americans claimed to have voted for him !

exit polls are banned in uk before polls are closed because of their
potential influence on voters

exit polls tend to be far more accurate than opinion polls

Donald Trump Is Winning - Bill Mitchell and Stefan Molyneux

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zCb_lmE1SJ0

PaddyPower website, says they are paying out on Hilary win now

lump on OP

65% of the betting is going on trump with 35% of bets on Hillary
but the large bets going on Hillary.
but the bookies have cut trump from 11/2 to 4/1 because more people are backing trump for smaller stakes according to sky news.

Looking like a 1/100 shot the way she's destroyed him tonight at the gala dinner,fantastic whover wrote that for her great delivery best thing I've ever heard her do by a longway,it's game over!!

@thegiggilo -- Looking like a 1/100 shot the way she's destroyed him tonight at the gala dinner,fantastic whover wrote that for her great delivery best thing I've ever heard her do by a longway,it's game over!!

Half right. Hillary had the better joke writer but her delivery was terrible -- a bit like Mrs Thatcher used to be, reading out jokes she did not really get.

Clinton and her team are too experienced in politics to take anything for granted and are aware of the risks in relaxing with just over 2 wks to go in the campaign. Re those emails, no smoking gun yet, but potentially could be very damaging.

"Trump has lost a lot of votes, because of these sexual groping allegations"

Another one come forward yesterday, I think that was the 10th. Any more...?

Clinton will probably win but wouldn't take those short odds, anything could happen in next 2 wks. Amazing Trump has got this far, thought he was expected to drop away after the first few wks, Dump Trump ! And the opposite has happened, game not over yet !