Chit Chat
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02 Oct 16
22:07
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Date Joined:
29 Aug 06
What is your Autumn / Winter forecasts ?
Has went from summer to autumn to almost winter in a fortnight ,colder night in many places but a very mixed bag of forecasts doing the rounds from an Indian summer (a think that comes in oct/nov
) to an early winter , queue the worst winter for 50/100/1000 years headlines depending on what chip wrapper you read .
Last year they wove a tale of el nino bringing the worst snow for 50/100/1000 years but it never materialised .
No doubt this years weather scaremongering will start soon ,prob after the tale end of the worst tropical storm for 50/100/1000 years brings some sort of weather at end of weak .The winter weather scare stories will start to develop ,bringing all sorts of worry and fear about not having enough coats/wellies to food supplies are gunna run out .
For an accurate guide to what lies ahead i thought Chit Chat would be the best port of call ,what have the berries been like on the trees ? have the cows been lying belly up with thar heads under thar wings ?
some chilly nights for oct and due to get colder going into end of next week but after that supposed to be warmer but not much on the long range winter forecast ,anyone reckon we will see a proper winter this year ?
Has went from summer to autumn to almost winter in a fortnight ,colder night in many places but a very mixed bag of forecasts doing the rounds from an Indian summer (a think that comes in oct/nov
) to an early winter , queue the worst winter for 50/100/1000 years headlines depending on what chip wrapper you read .Last year they wove a tale of el nino bringing the worst snow for 50/100/1000 years but it never materialised .
No doubt this years weather scaremongering will start soon ,prob after the tale end of the worst tropical storm for 50/100/1000 years brings some sort of weather at end of weak .The winter weather scare stories will start to develop ,bringing all sorts of worry and fear about not having enough coats/wellies to food supplies are gunna run out .
For an accurate guide to what lies ahead i thought Chit Chat would be the best port of call ,what have the berries been like on the trees ? have the cows been lying belly up with thar heads under thar wings ?
some chilly nights for oct and due to get colder going into end of next week but after that supposed to be warmer but not much on the long range winter forecast ,anyone reckon we will see a proper winter this year ?
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I have a horrible feeling that the "Blob" of anomalously warm surface temperatures that first appeared in the North Pacific at the end of 2013 is currently overriding every other factor when it comes to UK winters. The three winters since then have all been horribly mild, and the Blob is still there. So I'm going for another mild one for 2016-17.
Never mind. After we were fortunate enough to have the coldest UK December for a century in 2010, I don't think we have anything to complain about for a while. Whole generations have come and gone without experiencing that amazing blue Arctic light over snowfields in the south of England around the shortest day. Sunrise at the solstice in Somerset 2010:  |
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Lovely sight Screaming, we need another like that to cull the slug population. Unfortunately the trend seems to be warmer and wetter and 2010 now looks like an anomaly for Somerset.
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I'm not so sure. This was the preceding winter:
 Winter 2009-10 is largely forgotten because of the record-breaking cold of the following December, but in many ways it was a better one, because the snow and ice kept reappearing throughout the season. This one was November 2005, before camera phones got any good. You can tell it's Somerset by the Yeovil Town scarf (first ever season in League One):  And just as a reminder of the extraordinary cold of December 2010, a view towards the Blackdown Hills on Christmas morning:  |
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so prior to 2010 were you getting much of a winter ?
The weather in the UK has changed remarkably ,mostly driven by the gulf stream shift and its weakening . I dont worry so much about the warming of the Pacific and its warm blob as i do the warming (allegedly ) of the Atlantic and its cool blob ,both are prob symptoms of the same cause . Hopefully a decent cold winter ,with reasonable snow levels in the north and i can sell those 200 sledges that i bought on a whim at a warehouse firesale in the summer . as soon as i bought emm i knew it would never snow in Scotland again ...a small price to pay . |
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Yes. Those three pictures above are from 2009, 2005 and 2010 respectively. To get three years like that in a decade in the balmy West Country tells me that there's been no sudden shift in the UK's climate: it's still maritime, and it still needs a hell of a lot of things to come right to hold back the mild westerlies off the Atlantic, but do they still come right as often as they ever did.
Go back exactly a hundred years. There'd been some heavy snow in 1908-9, but then hardly anything, with 1912-13 in particular producing nothing in the south. Everyone wondering why the UK climate had changed. Then 1916-17 saw snowfall after snowfall, the troops freezing in the trenches and monumental drifts in the Midlands, the West Country and even Ireland. Just look on the last five years in the same way as one of those annoying days when the favourites keep winning and it looks like you're never going to get a result again. And then, boom! A couple of 5/1 winners and you realize nothing ever changed. |
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nice dog
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She sends her love, Capt.
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Yes the winter of 1916 was very bad ,absolutely horrendous conditions .
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