Could leave be the best bet we have seen for some time?

No

It's been a value bet for ages.

It does look good value for the in play market.

Plenty of good arguments on here for getting out with nothing of any consequence offered for staying.
Same on the tv debates with the stayers resorting to personal abuse as their only weapon.
Looks like the remainers are faltering so yep could be as you say the best bet for some time.

The North east have a history of getting the count in first.....and they will be more leave than remain.

Had a small bet at 3.2, then another one at 3.9. No appetite on my part for continuing to follow the prices out. Just one way this market is going, with only news which causes the price to drift having any effect.

I mean, now they've got the evidence to prove that shooting an MP boosts share prices, this is not a market I feel like second-guessing.

4.2 now, I think a good bet would be back at 4.2 with putting a lay in at 3.2, thus  leaving a free even money bet if the leave market wins.

Buy the rumour sell the fact.

Exactly.

If you back at 4.2 and put in a lay at 3.2, you're much more likely either simply to lose your stake or to give away 2/3 of your profit.

I'd rather have a bet on Leave with a stake you're comfortable to lose and just let it run.

TheBetterBettor 22 Jun 16 09:35 Joined: 10 Jan 12 | Topic/replies: 7,699 | Blogger: TheBetterBettor's blog
The North east have a history of getting the count in first.....and they will be more leave than remain.


When will I find out how my area voted?

4am, Wales (22 counting areas)

4am, Northern Ireland (18 counting areas)

5am, North East (12 counting areas)

5am, Scotland (17 counting areas)

5am, London (33 counting areas)

5am, Yorkshire & Humber (21 counting areas)

6am, West Midlands (30 counting areas

6.30am, East Midlands (40 counting areas)

6.30am, South West (38 counting areas)

7am, Eastern (46 counting areas)

7am, North West (39 counting areas)

7am, South Eastern (68 counting areas)


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/20/when-are-the-eu-referendum-results-what-time-will-we-know-the-wi/

Sadly, no.

The playing field is not level. I'm surprised the odds are still relatively close.

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/eu-referendum-results-be-announced-regional-declaration-times-in-time-order_uk_5767d0b6e4b01fb65863c73a

Declaration Times For Each Local Counting Area In

Chronological Order (See Alphabetical List Here)

Counting Officer    Region    Count completion time
Foyle    Northern Ireland    12.30am
Sunderland    North East    12.30am
Wandsworth    London    12.30am
City of London    London    12.45am
Hartlepool    North East    1.00 -1.30am
Newcastle upon Tyne    North East    1.00am
Oldham    North West    1.00am
Swindon    South West    1.00am
West Tyrone    Northern Ireland    1.00am
Belfast East    Northern Ireland    1.15am
Belfast South    Northern Ireland    1.15am
Belfast West    Northern Ireland    1.15am
Islington    London    1.30-3.00am
Belfast North    Northern Ireland    1.30am
Eilean Siar    Scotland    1.30am
Isles of Scilly    South West    1.30am
Lagan Valley    Northern Ireland    1.30am
Merthyr Tydfil    Wales    1.30am
North Down    Northern Ireland    1.30am
North Hertfordshire    Eastern    1.30am
Salford    North West    1.30am
Stirling    Scotland    1.30am
Stockport    North West    1.30am
Strangford    Northern Ireland    1.30am
Wigan    North West    1.30am
Denbighshire    Wales    1.45am
Basildon    Eastern    2.00am
Blaenau Gwent    Wales    2.00am
Clackmannanshire    Scotland    2.00am
Dover    South Eastern    2.00am
Ealing    London    2.00am
Hart    South Eastern    2.00am
Ipswich    Eastern    2.00am
Malvern Hills    West Midlands    2.00am
Neath Port Talbot    Wales    2.00am
North Antrim    Northern Ireland    2.00am
North Tyneside    North East    2.00am
North Warwickshire    West Midlands    2.00am
Nuneaton and Bedworth    West Midlands    2.00am
Oxford    South Eastern    2.00am
Richmondshire    Yorkshire & Humber    2.00am
Sandwell    West Midlands    2.00am
Shetland Islands    Scotland    2.00am
South Lanarkshire    Scotland    2.00am
South Norfolk    Eastern    2.00am
South Tyneside    North East    2.00am
Tamworth    West Midlands    2.00am
Upper Bann    Northern Ireland    2.00am
Westminster    London    2.00am
Wrexham    Wales    2.00am
Gibraltar    South West    2.00am (Gibraltar time)
East Ayrshire    Scotland    2.15am
Falkirk    Scotland    2.30 - 3.00am
Castle Point    Eastern    2.30 am
Merton    London    2.30 am
Wellingborough    East Midlands    2.30- 3.00am
Oadby & Wigston    East Midlands    2.30-3.00am
Angus    Scotland    2.30am
Barking & Dagenham    London    2.30am
Barrow-in-Furness    North West    2.30am
Broxbourne    Eastern    2.30am
Caerphilly    Wales    2.30am
Conwy    Wales    2.30am
Crawley    South Eastern    2.30am
Darlington    North East    2.30am
Dundee City    Scotland    2.30am
East Antrim    Northern Ireland    2.30am
Harlow    Eastern    2.30am
Havant    South Eastern    2.30am
Hertsmere    Eastern    2.30am
High Peak    East Midlands    2.30am
Hyndburn    North West    2.30am
Isle of Anglesey    Wales    2.30am
Lambeth    London    2.30am
Lincoln    East Midlands    2.30am
North Dorset    South West    2.30am
North Lanarkshire    Scotland    2.30am
Ribble Valley    North West    2.30am
Rugby    West Midlands    2.30am
Rushmoor    South Eastern    2.30am
South Antrim    Northern Ireland    2.30am
South Lakeland    North West    2.30am
St. Helens    North West    2.30am
Staffordshire Moorlands    West Midlands    2.30am
Swansea    Wales    2.30am
Woking    South Eastern    2.30am
Watford    Eastern    3-.00-4.00am
Corby    East Midlands    3:30- 4.00am
Hammersmith & Fulham    London    3.00-3.30am
Sutton    London    3.00-3.30am
Tandridge    South Eastern    3.00-3.30am
Telford & Wrekin    West Midlands    3.00-3.30am
Basingstoke & Deane    South Eastern    3.00-4.00am
Gateshead    North East    3.00-4.00am
Harrow    London    3.00-4.00am
Thurrock    Eastern    3.00-4.00am
Tower Hamlets    London    3.00-4.00am
Tunbridge Wells    South Eastern    3.00-4.00am
Worcester    West Midlands    3.00-4.00am
Babergh    Eastern    3.00am
Barnsley    Yorkshire & Humber    3.00am
Bolton    North West    3.00am
Boston    East Midlands    3.00am
Bracknell Forest    South Eastern    3.00am
Bridgend    Wales    3.00am
Bury    North West    3.00am
Cambridge    Eastern    3.00am
Camden    London    3.00am
Cannock Chase    West Midlands    3.00am
Charnwood    East Midlands    3.00am
Chelmsford    Eastern    3.00am
Chesterfield    East Midlands    3.00am
Chorley    North West    3.00am
Colchester    Eastern    3.00am
Copeland    North West    3.00am
Dacorum    Eastern    3.00am
Durham    North East    3.00am
East Londonderry    Northern Ireland    3.00am
East Lothian    Scotland    3.00am
East Renfrewshire    Scotland    3.00am
Eastleigh    South Eastern    3.00am
Enfield    London    3.00am
Epsom and Ewell    South Eastern    3.00am
Exeter    South West    3.00am
Fylde    North West    3.00am
Gosport    South Eastern    3.00am
Gwynedd    Wales    3.00am
Haringey    London    3.00am
Hastings    South Eastern    3.00am
Inverclyde    Scotland    3.00am
Knowsley    North West    3.00am
Maidstone    South Eastern    3.00am
Mid Suffolk    Eastern    3.00am
Midlothian    Scotland    3.00am
Milton-Keynes    South Eastern    3.00am
Monmouthshire    Wales    3.00am
Moray    Scotland    3.00am
New Forest    South Eastern    3.00am
Newham    London    3.00am
North Ayrshire    Scotland    3.00am
North Devon    South West    3.00am
North East Lincolnshire    Yorkshire & Humber    3.00am
North West Leicestershire    East Midlands    3.00am
Orkney Islands    Scotland    3.00am
Pendle    North West    3.00am
Perth and Kinross    Scotland    3.00am
Peterborough    Eastern    3.00am
Reading    South Eastern    3.00am
Renfrewshire    Scotland    3.00am
Rochdale    North West    3.00am
Runnymede    South Eastern    3.00am
Sedgemoor    South West    3.00am
Shepway    South Eastern    3.00am
South Bucks    South Eastern    3.00am
Southend-on-Sea    Eastern    3.00am
Southwark    London    3.00am
St Albans    Eastern    3.00am
Stevenage    Eastern    3.00am
Stratford-on-Avon    West Midlands    3.00am
Thanet    South Eastern    3.00am
Torbay    South West    3.00am
Torfaen    Wales    3.00am
Trafford    North West    3.00am
Uttlesford    Eastern    3.00am
Warwick    West Midlands    3.00am
West Berkshire    South Eastern    3.00am
West Dunbartonshire    Scotland    3.00am
West Oxfordshire    South Eastern    3.00am
West Somerset    South West    3.00am
Weymouth    South West    3.00am
Wokingham    South Eastern    3.00am
Wycombe    South Eastern    3.00am
Wyre    North West    3.00am
Fife    Scotland    3.30-4.00am
East Dunbartonshire    Scotland    3.30-4.30am
Aberdeen City    Scotland    3.30am
Barnet    London    3.30am
Bournemouth    South West    3.30am
Brent    London    3.30am
Burnley    North West    3.30am
Carlisle    North West    3.30am
Carmarthenshire    Wales    3.30am
Cheltenham    South West    3.30am
Dartford    South Eastern    3.30am
Dudley    West Midlands    3.30am
Dumfries & Galloway    Scotland    3.30am
Edinburgh, City of    Scotland    3.30am
Epping Forest    Eastern    3.30am
Erewash    East Midlands    3.30am
Fermanagh and South Tyron    eNorthern Ireland    3.30am
Flintshire    Wales    3.30am
Forest of Dean    South West    3.30am
Gedling    East Midlands    3.30am
Greenwich    London    3.30am
Halton    North West    3.30am
King’s Lynn & West Norfolk    Eastern    3.30am
Kingston upon Hull    Yorkshire & Humber    3.30am
Lancaster    North West    3.30am
Melton    East Midlands    3.30am
Newark and Sherwood    East Midlands    3.30am
Newport    Wales    3.30am
Newry and Armagh    Northern Ireland    3.30am
Portsmouth    South Eastern    3.30am
Powys    Wales    3.30am
Preston    North West    3.30am
Purbeck    South West    3.30am
Redbridge    London    3.30am
Redcar & Cleveland    North East    3.30am
Rhondda Cynon Taf    Wales    3.30am
Rochford    Eastern    3.30am
Rossendale    North West    3.30am
Scarborough    Yorkshire & Humber    3.30am
South Derbyshire    East Midlands    3.30am
South Down    Northern Ireland    3.30am
South Hams    South West    3.30am
South Somerset    South West    3.30am
Suffolk Coastal    Eastern    3.30am
Surrey Heath    South Eastern    3.30am
Taunton Deane    South West    3.30am
Three Rivers    Eastern    3.30am
Walsall    West Midlands    3.30am
West Lothian    Scotland    3.30am
Ashfield    East Midlands    4.00-5.00am
Bassetlaw    East Midlands    4.00-5.00am
Eden    North West    4.00-5.00am
Middlesbrough    North East    4.00-5.00am
Northumberland    North East    4.00-5.00am
Torridge    South West    4.00-6.00am
Derbyshire Dales    East Midlands    4.00-7.00am
Allerdale    North West    4.00am
Argyll & Bute    Scotland    4.00am
Ashford    South Eastern    4.00am
Bedford    Eastern    4.00am
Birmingham    West Midlands    4.00am
Blackburn    North West    4.00am
Blackpool    North West    4.00am
Bolsover    East Midlands    4.00am
Breckland    Eastern    4.00am
Brentwood    Eastern    4.00am
Brighton & Hove    South Eastern    4.00am
Broadland    Eastern    4.00am
Bromley    London    4.00am
Bromsgrove    West Midlands    4.00am
Canterbury    South Eastern    4.00am
Cardiff    Wales    4.00am
Ceredigion    Wales    4.00am
Chiltern    South Eastern    4.00am
Craven    Yorkshire & Humber    4.00am
Croydon    London    4.00am
Daventry    East Midlands    4.00am
Doncaster    Yorkshire & Humber    4.00am
East Hampshire    South Eastern    4.00am
East Hertfordshire    Eastern    4.00am
East Riding of Yorkshire    Yorkshire & Humber    4.00am
East Staffordshire    West Midlands    4.00am
Eastbourne    South Eastern    4.00am
Elmbridge    South Eastern    4.00am
Fareham    South Eastern    4.00am
Forest Heath    Eastern    4.00am
Gloucester    South West    4.00am
Hambleton    Yorkshire & Humber    4.00am
Harrogate    Yorkshire & Humber    4.00am
Havering    London    4.00am
Horsham    South Eastern    4.00am
Huntingdonshire    Eastern    4.00am
Lewes    South Eastern    4.00am
Lewisham    London    4.00am
Lichfield    West Midlands    4.00am
Mansfield    East Midlands    4.00am
Mendip    South West    4.00am
Mid Devon    South West    4.00am
Mid Sussex    South Eastern    4.00am
Mid Ulster    Northern Ireland    4.00am
Mole Valley    South Eastern    4.00am
Newcastle-under-Lyme    West Midlands    4.00am
Norwich    Eastern    4.00am
Pembrokeshire    Wales    4.00am
Redditch    West Midlands    4.00am
Rother    South Eastern    4.00am
Rotherham    Yorkshire & Humber    4.00am
Rushcliffe    East Midlands    4.00am
Ryedale    Yorkshire & Humber    4.00am
Scottish Borders    Scotland    4.00am
Selby    Yorkshire & Humber    4.00am
Sevenoaks    South Eastern    4.00am
Solihull    West Midlands    4.00am
South Cambridgeshire    Eastern    4.00am
South Ribble    North West    4.00am
South Staffordshire    West Midlands    4.00am
Southampton    South Eastern    4.00am
St. Edmundsbury    Eastern    4.00am
Stafford    West Midlands    4.00am
Stoke-on-Trent    West Midlands    4.00am
Stroud    South West    4.00am
Swale    South Eastern    4.00am
Tendring    Eastern    4.00am
Test Valley    South Eastern    4.00am
The Vale of Glamorgan    Wales    4.00am
Tonbridge & Malling    South Eastern    4.00am
Wakefield    Yorkshire & Humber    4.00am
Waltham Forest    London    4.00am
Waverley    South Eastern    4.00am
West Dorset    South West    4.00am
West Lancashire    North West    4.00am
Wirral    North West    4.00am
Wolverhampton    West Midlands    4.00am
Wyre Forest    West Midlands    4.00am
York    Yorkshire & Humber    4.00am
Kirklees    Yorkshire & Humber    4.30-5.00am
Aylesbury Vale    South Eastern    4.30am
Bexley    London    4.30am
Braintree    Eastern    4.30am
Broxtowe    East Midlands    4.30am
Chichester    South Eastern    4.30am
Christchurch    South West    4.30am
East Dorset    South West    4.30am
Great Yarmouth    Eastern    4.30am
Hackney    London    4.30am
Isle of Wight    South Eastern    4.30am
Kingston upon Thames    London    4.30am
North East Derbyshire    East Midlands    4.30am
North Lincolnshire    Yorkshire & Humber    4.30am
Poole    South West    4.30am
Sheffield    Yorkshire & Humber    4.30am
South Oxfordshire    South Eastern    4.30am
Spelthorne    South Eastern    4.30am
Stockton-on-Tees    North East    4.30am
Teignbridge    South West    4.30am
Tewkesbury    South West    4.30am
Vale of White Horse    South Eastern    4.30am
Warrington    North West    4.30am
Welwyn Hatfield    South Eastern    4.30am
Wiltshire    South West    4.30am
North Norfolk    Eastern    5.00-6.00am
Reigate & Banstead    South Eastern    5.00-6.00am
South Gloucestershire    South West    5.00-6.00am
Aberdeenshire    Scotland    5.00am
Amber Valley    East Midlands    5.00am
Blaby    East Midlands    5.00am
Bradford    Yorkshire & Humber    5.00am
Calderdale    Yorkshire & Humber    5.00am
Central Bedfordshire    Eastern    5.00am
Cheshire West    North West    5.00am
Coventry    West Midlands    5.00am
Derby    East Midlands    5.00am
East Cambridgeshire    Eastern    5.00am
East Devon    South West    5.00am
Glasgow City    Scotland    5.00am
Gravesham    South Eastern    5.00am
Highland    Scotland    5.00am
Hillingdon    London    5.00am
Hounslow    London    5.00am
Kensington and Chelsea    London    5.00am
Kettering    East Midlands    5.00am
Leeds    Yorkshire & Humber    5.00am
Liverpool    North West    5.00am
Luton    Eastern    5.00am
Manchester    North West    5.00am
North Kesteven    East Midlands    5.00am
Plymouth    South West    5.00am
Richmond Upon Thames    London    5.00am
Slough    South Eastern    5.00am
South Ayrshire    Scotland    5.00am
South Holland    East Midlands    5.00am
Tameside    North West    5.00am
West Devon    South West    5.00am
West Lindsey    East Midlands    5.00am
Wychavon    West Midlands    5.00am
Cotswold    South West    5.30am
Fenland    Eastern    5.30am
Guildford    South Eastern    5.30am
Herefordshire    West Midlands    6:00-7:00am
Nottingham    East Midlands    6.00-7.00am
Bath & North East Somerset    South West    6.00am
Bristol    South West    6.00am
Cherwell    South Eastern    6.00am
Cornwall    South West    6.00am
East Lindsey    East Midlands    6.00am
East Northamptonshire    East Midlands    6.00am
Hinckley & Bosworth    East Midlands    6.00am
Maldon    Eastern    6.00am
Medway    South Eastern    6.00am
Northampton    East Midlands    6.00am
Rutland    East Midlands    6.00am
Sefton    North West    6.00am
Shropshire    West Midlands    6.00am
South Kesteven    East Midlands    6.00am
South Northamptonshire    East Midlands    6.00am
Wealden    South Eastern    6.00am
Windsor and Maidenhead    South Eastern    6.00am
Adur    South Eastern    6.30am
Leicester    East Midlands    6.30am
North Somerset    South West    6.30am
Winchester    South Eastern    6.30am
Worthing    South Eastern    6.30am
Arun    South Eastern    7.00am
Cheshire East    North West    7.00am
Harborough    East Midlands    7.00am
Waveney    Eastern    7.00am

Northern Ireland will vote to get the sovereignty back.

Tower Hamlets    London    3.00-4.00am


could be late due to extra 50 million postal ballot papers

That's probably why the odds are bigger than  would be expected, people  thinking that it will be  ****, me included.

*r1gged

I had a punt yesterday.

A r1gged vote? This isn't the United States of America!

No, Die Linke but it will be the United States of Europe if we remain.

this is going to be close- very close

Shorting up a wee bit now at 3.6

just gone to 3.4, maybe there's a new news headline somewhere

Jun 22, 2016 -- 10:16AM, TheBetterBettor wrote:

Northern Ireland will vote to get the sovereignty back.

and they'll get the troubles back if they are sucessful

Never noticed news stories shortening the Leave odds before, only lengthening them. Whatever, I'll be glad to be proved wrong and see you get 3.2 for your trade, MMH.

Brexit odds shortened today - 5/2 & 11/4 now from 3's along the board this morning.

Get in.......Now the days come a lot of these remainer's won't show
at the booth, they'll just crawl back under their rocks.....No fight in them types

British havn`t got the nerve to vote leave.

Sadly I agree lfc1971

We are too greedy.
We are too risk adverse.

anjem choudary says muslims arn't allowed to take part in this,

so worth pointing this out if you see any muslims @ the polling booths tomorrow.

When I googled it, says he wants to remain..

He wants more Muslims in this country so they can take over

Or was that post a cunning ploy by you Ron?, so none of them will vote

In todays Sun he say's he will not be taking part as muslims
are not allowed to vote.

wish he'd told them that before they voted sadiq khan in

?????????????????????
I did not know that was a Muslim rule, or is it because it is Ramadan?

If they don't vote, it would be better for leave

But as we are gamblers, I don't expect odds of 1.3 to be turned over

don't know the reason, it clearly states that in the paper though.

not sure how you'd find out either - always worth remembering he is a total
nut case!

In the end

Most people will stick to what they know

It's a Remain vote,  no doubt.

I have found it Ron!

He is backing Remain because he says the EU stops unfair deportations

Methinks he is thinking of himself there, a somewhat hypocritical stance.

4.8

Just laid some 1.26 Remain. That's a silly, panicky price. Got an overall position of about 3/1 Leave now.

Illustrates the point I was making above though. This is not a market for going in too heavily on Leave and assuming you'll be able to trade out for a free bet. If you think the market has got it wrong, then don't assume it will somehow do a U-turn. Just have a punt at a big price to a stake you can afford and let it run.

I won't be laying off until it gets sub 1.15 or so. I think that there are a lot of people who may feel intimidated into saying that they are voting Out. Have you noticed how many of the "outers" are 2nd, 3rd or 4th generation immigrants. I wonder if they are advocating Out in a kind of misguided (albeit understandable) attempt to be seen to "fit in" more. I wonder how many of these people have been subjected to casual or implied racism or xenophobic attitudes in their lives, and see supporting Out, as a kind of defence mechanism. I wonder just how many of these people will really vote Out?

I also have my doubts about how many of the older generation will be voting for such a big change. The current crop of pensioners are the youngest, most wealthy, healthiest representatives of that demographic there has ever been. Will they really want to cause a change that could jeopardise any of it. I know a lot of pensioners (many of them not that old) and most of them are very well off and have too much to lose to vote Out, just to give Cameron, osbourne et al a bloody nose.

My Italian residential is on remain..

Not a chance the dodgy Masons and Knight Templars will allow a leave vote.. Too many cuckoos in that there leave campaign as well. I personally would have wiped the floor with remains views (guessing) and their tactics, but every single tv 'debate' and other shíte has been way too muffled and disingenuous for my liking. Just why didn't they crucify remain? 'The Donald' is tearing Ma Clinton a new gash in the USA yet these fookwits hardly utter a complaint.

Been about 4.4 most of the morning but now just drifted out to 5.8, with 6.0 being nibbled at 5 minutes ago. Can't see any news stories that would be a reason for this.

Yes clearly states Muslims not allowed to vote ..on the ball is Ron Russian...
http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/682335/Muslim-Association-of-Britain-Brexit-Remain-vote-EU-referendum

there wont be any news stories, its probably early polling on the day
and or trading, theres been a million matched in past 10 minutes or so

Isn't there a final MORI poll out within the hour? The result must already be known to those who compiled it.

MORI poll was at 10.00am, yeah people working there putting some sneaky bets on I reckon.

You'd have to say at 7.0 it looks like remain has weighed in :(

7.8

Can't see any news stories that would be a reason for this.

They saw my post..

It appears that the Bilderberg group decided the result long ago.

Yup

IN drifting out to 1.20 now

1.22 ... and climbing

1.22 vs 5.7

Leave odds halved from 10.5.

Wow that's some swing! I'll put the whisky rope and letter back in the cupboard

Panic over! back into 1.16 now

JC

1.15 / 7.4 

get that rope out again

BLIMEY, I got it right against ALL the odds

Funny, isn't it? All the media claiming the pollsters and the punters got it wrong, but, as you said at the start of the thread, it was actually the polls which pointed to Leave being the bet.

well done stow

well done stow

I jumped in @ 8.2 yesterday lunchtime. If Brexit did trades they would be the best trades in the world 

I didn't bet on the market but I believed the markets and feel like a mug anyway.

stow_judge...props dude u lived up to the 2nd part of ur u/name
hope u and others filled ur boots..respect

Where can I still get on leave @ 11 ?

Cheers Stow I done alright out of that, and well done screaming from beneaththewaves.