Remain-Leave POLLING thread

LATEST #EURef poll

Ipsos Mori
Leave 53% (+10)
Remain 47% (-10)


wow

brilliant cartoon sums it up. 







https://mobile.twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/743362625145208832/photo/1

GO Farage

.
http://www.breitbart.com/london/2016/06/16/breaking-point-ukip-launches-largest-ever-national-ad-campaign-immigration/

that shockingly bad new politics spokeswomen on sky beth rigby has  just nonchantly got the latest poll wrong saying the latest poll shows a 6% lead for remain when she meant leave,absolutely shocking and if it was a mistake sky should flag it up every 30 mins for the rest of the day or face been censored.
apologises if ive got it wrong and theres a poll out showing 6% remain vote today ,but listening to john curtis polling expert on bbc 10 mins ago i dont think so ,he confirmed poll giving leave 6 point lead,
sky and their buffoons and bimbo,s are an absolute disgrace

she,s now on saying all polls favouring brexit so she dropped an almighty clanger earlier on absolutly shocking

Britain Elects ‏@britainelects  · 2m2 minutes ago 

EU referendum poll:
Remain: 47% (-13)
Leave: 53% (+13)
(via Ipsos Mori, phone / 11 - 14 Jun)
Excluding DKs
Methodology changes

Great watching media flapping about the polls, using any methodology on why the polls are changing, rather than stating the obvious.

Britain Elects ‏@britainelects  · 2m2 minutes ago 

EU referendum poll:
Remain: 42% (-2)
Leave: 45% (+7)
(via Survation, phone / 15 Jun)

Prof. John Curtice's

now no fav--to close

obviously i,m an outer but it seems to me brexit have just kept the same team on the pitch fighting trying to fight the popints in their favour,whilst remain have moved every day wheeling out b list celebs who are mostly despised by the people who,ll be voting,so far today we,ve had
neil kinnock
geldoff even after yesterdays debacle on qt tonight
mark carney
its never ending conveyor to blivion from my biased eyes,if the same no marks were wheeled out for brexit even i might vote for remain
just more evidence of how out of touch they are,has anyone seen mr rose been missing for 8 weeks

there are whispers that Mr Juncker is suffering from depression and is poorly (p1ss head) and may be considering stepping down

Alastair Campbell
Alastair Campbell‏ @campbellclaret

Newspapers devoted to stirring hate and anger against politicians with progressive values busy preparing their admiring obits of Jo Cox

shocking from campbell typical new labour and i,m a labour supporter

I've read on here that the smaller and more numerous bets are for Leave, but the bigger and fewer bets are for Remain. Hence Remain still ahead on the odds due to weight of money.
Does anyone know a source for this claim?

It would be sweet if it was true - it's would be nice to see big bettors lose money in a free market ( betfair odds being the nearest thing we have to a free market of opinion ).

Our local rag has been doing an online poll among readers. More than 3500 votes in a very heavily slanted Labour area of England and votes Leave amount to 72% versus 25% Remain. I reckon only one result next Friday if they are reliant on labour voters supporting Remain.

very similar situation here treetop, 72% leave v 28% remain... South Wales Evening Post.
around 900 votes so far.

correction, 72% leave, 23% remain, 5% undecided

I am convinced the London media and MP's all believe in their own misunderstanding that the rest of UK does as they tell them what is good for them ????

I am speechless, just read these freds from EMP.

.
http://www.breitbart.com/london/2016/06/16/eu-commissioner-claims-jo-cox-mp-murdered-supporting-migrants-eu/

Bremain

betfair odds

1.49 In
3.00 Out

1000 dead heat

Switzerland has formally withdrawn her long-standing application to join the European Union (EU), as only “a few lunatics” now want to be involved with the bloc. The verdict comes just one week before Britons go to the polls to decide on whether to retain their membership of the political union.
Twenty-seven members of the Council of States, Switzerland’s upper house, voted in favour of cancelling the application, against 13 who opposed the motion. Two abstained, the Neue Zürcher Zeitung has reported.

The vote ratifies an earlier vote held by Parliamentarians in the lower house in March, which saw the motion to withdraw the application agreed to with an overwhelming majority of 126 in favour, 46 against.

In response to the federal vote, Switzerland’s foreign minister Didier Burkhalter confirmed that his country will now give formal notice to the EU to consider the Swiss application officially withdrawn.

Switzerland’s application to join the European Economic Area, the precursor to the EU, was lodged in 1992, but a referendum held the same year on the matter saw the Swiss people narrowly turned down the prospect of closer ties to the bloc, putting the application on ice.

It has never been seriously revived in the intervening 24 years, prompting Mr. Burkhalter to previously comment that the application has long been considered invalid.

Nonetheless, Thomas Minder, an independent representative said he was keen to “close the topic fast and painlessly,” adding that only “a few lunatics” still wished to join the EU.

His colleague Hannes Germann of the Swiss People’s Party compared the symbolic nature of the vote to Iceland’s decision to drop its own application in 2015. “Iceland had the courage to withdrew their application for membership and no volcano erupted,” he joked.

And Damian Mueller of the Free Democratic Party said it was necessary “to make a clean sweep”.

But others have argued that it was a pointless discussion as the EU no longer considers Switzerland a candidate country. Filippo Lombardi of the Christian Democratic People’s Party said that it was “not very clever to discuss it once again,” calling the debate about Switzerland’s accession at this stage “a bit ridiculous”.

Although Switzerland has never been a part of the EU, it is a member of the single market. Switzerland is also one of the richest countries in the world, with a GDP per capita of US$ 80,675 in 2015, according to the International Monetary Fund. Britain’s GDP per capita in the same year was nearly half as much at US$ 43,771.

Christoph Blocher, the Swiss former MP who led the charge to keep Switzerland out of the EU in 1992, has told The Spectator that Project Fear was deployed in that referendum, too. One politician predicted at the time that if it didn’t join, within five years it would be begging to do so “on its knees”.

In fact, those predictions never came to pass. “The Monday after the Sunday, the Bourse rose,” Mr. Blocher recalls.

But he agrees that Britain wouldn’t get the same deal as the Swiss post-Brexit: “No, you’d get a much better deal.”

His conclusion: “I think if you [Britain] leave the EU it will be very good for you.”

Britain Elects ‏@britainelects  · 3m3 minutes ago 

EU referendum poll:
Remain: 48%
Leave: 48%
(via SurveyMonkey / 08 - 15 Jun)
Pollster not a member of the British Polling Council.

EU referendum poll:
Remain: 53%
Leave: 47%
(via BMG, phone / 10 - 15 Jun)
Excluding DKs.

7m
Britain Elects‏ @britainelects
BMG EU referendum polls, with undecideds:

Online:
Remain: 41% (-3)
Leave: 51% (+6)

Telephone:
Remain: 46%
Leave: 43%

(10 - 15 Jun)

Britain Elects ‏@britainelects   

With the latest BMG, Survation and Mori polls our #EUref averages stand at:
Remain: 42.9%
Leave: 47.6%

Alistair Campbell cant help himself



Alastair Campbell Verified account 
‏@campbellclare
t 
The freedom Britain needs is freedom from a nasty Brexit Lie Machine run by tax dodgers and multi-millionaire liars fuelling anger and hate

cant have many mirrors in his home.

"Death to traitors, freedom for Britain"


This guy is doing his best for remain.

Britain Elects ‏@britainelects  · 2m2 minutes ago 

Two #EUref polls tonight: Opinium for the Observer and YouGov for the Times.

Not sure if it's reliable.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2016/06/17/exclusive-poll-eu-support-falls-after-jo-cox-murder/86031038/

Opinium EU Referendum Poll. Both Remain and Leave 44%

Britain Elects ‏@britainelects  · 7m7 minutes ago 

Two more #EUref polls tonight: a YouGov for the Sunday Times, and a... YouGov for Good Morning Britai

Britain Elects ‏@britainelects  · 5m5 minutes ago 

and a Survation phone poll for the Mail on Sunday.

From the Guardian:
The EU has given us cheap mobile phone roaming charges, cheaper flights and proper compensation when things go wrong. It has helped clean up the environment, improving our rivers and beaches. It has given us unprecedented freedom to travel visa-free across the continent. And I’m voting out.

Why? I know a painter/decorator who has not been able to raise his wages for 15 years. There’s always someone else, he says, willing to work for less. A driver who arrived from Turkey 18 years ago, who says the bus companies used to pay more than £12 an hour, but can now pay £10 or less because they have so many takers (and yes, the irony is noted). A care-home cleaner in a rundown seaside town who reckons her hopes of ever getting more than the minimum wage are zero. Each blames an influx of workers from the EU. Each of them are voting out. Tell them the EU protects workers’ rights and they just laugh.

When companies launch recruitment drives in eastern Europe they blame skills shortages in Britain. Really? If a big business wants to hire, say, drivers on £25 an hour, it will find it can do so easily; what they really mean is that they can’t find people willing to work for £10 an hour or less, with antisocial hours to boot. Meanwhile, workers here rejecting low wages are told they are lazy, chavvy and feckless when they refuse to be part of the so-called “jobs factory of Europe”.

Meanwhile, as wages for people in low-income groups are pegged back, rents rise. Many times I interviewed Britain’s biggest buy-to-let landlord, Fergus Wilson, and many times he told me how well he was doing from eastern European migrants, who filled nearly all his properties and kept his rental income booming.

Rents in parts of the country are at catastrophic levels, snatching as much as 60% of pay. Migration is only part of the reason why that is happening. But when George Osborne declares house prices will fall by 18% if Britain quits, he’s giving the game away. He is saying membership of the EU keeps prices and rents much higher than they would otherwise be. Young people struggling with ludicrous rents, take note.

it doesnt quite make sense that rents are inflated and wages suppressed

how can the migrants on minimum wages pay such high rents ?


shirley they have better options elsewhere in europe ?

because they live 9,10,12 to a house,use iit like a studuio for a week in magaluf somewhere to lay your head whilst not at work ,its not a home to them

Poles share 10 to a room

Thats why they call their mates
Buddies

donny you seem as clued up as the labour party,theres millions living the story of what imigrants are doing to the working man in the uk,and politicans listen to them as though there making it up

Probably down to that are prepared to share, basically have a room for stupid money.

I work for a leccy board and go into houses all the time, frightening how many  i see in some houses, every room is a bedroom apart from the kitchen and the toilet.

so where did the landlords get these houses from ?

with all the sweeties osbourne has given btl over the years,i no he put a tax on them this yeat but theyve built up huge supply with cheap loans ,tax breaks

but who sold them ?

landlords are sometimes just renting it themselves for say £200 a week, pay the rent on time and move 12 guys in at £50 a week

can u start another thread,to talk about rents

latest polls

BMG were supposed to put out their final EU poll yesterday, but it was put back for a day because of the murder of Jo Cox and eventually emerged this morning. BMG carried out parallel telephone and online polls, and unlike ICM who no longer find any difference at at in their dual-mode experiments, BMG continue to find a big gulf:

    In their online poll BMG found topline figures of REMAIN 41%, LEAVE 51%, Don’t know 9%. Like other recent polls this reflected a big shift towards leave, with remain down by 2 points, Leave up by 6 points


Third is a poll from a company called qriously, whom I have never previously heard of. As far as I can tell the poll was conducted by embedding survey questions in adverts on smartphone apps. The data is weighted by age, gender, region, past vote and education so is making an effort to produce representative results – the question is to what degree, if at all, the sampling method is capable of producing a representative sample, which we cannot really tell. Their poll between the 13th and 16th June found topline figures of REMAIN 40%, LEAVE 52%, Don’t know 9% – so more favourable towards Leave than any other polling. They also released figures for people interviewed on Friday morning after Jo Cox’s murder, which were REMAIN 32%, LEAVE 52%, Don’t know 16% – a significant movement from Remain to don’t know.

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/

adios motherfruckers

EU referendum poll:
Remain: 45% (+3)
Leave: 42% (-3)
(via Survation, phone / 17 - 18 Jun)

Wheh hungary tried to leave the USSR the russians rolled T54s in to stop it.
I wonder if we'll see Leopard 2s on Trafalgar Squaare?

If the polls still aren't safe for Remain, maybe the BBC + C4 will just repeat
"Didn't you get the message? If you vote leave you're a mental fascist"
on a loop.

Every time i log onto the bbc website they have a new brexit scare story. The remain campaign has been sickening all along.

Like JC said earlier the bbc have dropped the migration story, absolutely nothing on their website in the build up to the vote.

Absolute filth, embarrassed to think i live in a democratic country.

Only when you step back you realise what is going on.

bbc are establishment-ask Laura

32s
Britain Elects‏ @britainelects
EU referendum poll:
Remain: 42% (+3)
Leave: 44% (-2)
(via YouGov, online / 15 - 16 Jun)
Chgs. from 12 - 13 Jun

& you've got this piece of filth coming out with stuff like this..

Former Prime Minister Gordon Brown also hit out at some Leave campaigners who he accused of trying to "hijack" the referendum and turn it into a vote on immigration.

[   This image is no longer available.   ]

Well Brown + Cameron won't give us a vote on immigration anyway will they!

Cameron's a lying pilchard.

Brown sold our gold on the cheap.

Oot, oot, FOOKIN' OOT!

I've never voted on anything re politics in my life.

Brexit will be the first

Im a bit nervous about going tbh, i hope i don't s0d it up

Anyone know why they won't be an exit poll? BBC says first indication of the result won't be until 4am whilst a more definite picture at 7am

Exit poll might make it obvious when they rig it

The people who cast the votes don't decide an election, the people who count the votes do.

Joseph Stalin

Hamsterdam
Anyone know why they won't be an exit poll?

Exit polls for general elections base their calculations on prior known results in the same constituencies, and then use these to calculate swings country-wide

There is no prior known result for this referendum, so this methodology is impossible

REMAIN
Mail on Sunday
Sunday Mail
Sunday Herald
Sunday Post

LEAVE
Sunday Times
Sunday Telegraph

Britain Elects ‏@britainelects  · 8m8 minutes ago 

Understood to be expecting the following #EUref polls:
20/06 ORB
20/06 YouGov
21/06 NatCen
21/06 Survation
23/06 Ipsos Mori
23/06 YouGov

Remain 1.32 who would back that unless you was ITK?

yougov poll taken after tragic death jo cox

Britain Elects ‏@britainelects  · 5m5 minutes ago 

EU referendum poll:
Remain: 53% (+5)
Leave: 46% (-3)
(via ORB, phone / )
Certain to vote.

after jo cox tragedy

Remain: 42% (-2)
Leave: 44% (+1)
(via YouGov, online / 17 - 19 Jun)

Britain Elects‏ @britainelects
EU referendum poll:
Remain: 45% (-)
Leave: 44% (+2)
(via Survation, phone / 20 Jun)

John Major 1st March 1995.....................................................................


"The often unspoken fear of many people – we should address it honestly and clearly and examine it--is that Europe might develop into a super-state, an overarching Government with no national veto, no control over our own borders, prescriptive decisions, a single currency imposed and the nation state retreating to a wholly subordinate role. That fear exists out there... and we should recognise the fact that it exists... I for one would find such a Europe wholly unacceptable for this country. I do not believe that it is remotely likely, but, if that were to be the future, it would not be a future that would be suitable for this country."

WHAT HAPPENED JOHN?

nice find

Nu labour thats what happened.

no Major is a liar and hypocrite is what's happened

no limits under blairs watch when we let all the poles in back in 2003 I think.

6m
Britain Elects‏ @britainelects
EU referendum poll:
Remain: 48% (-)
Leave: 49% (+1)
(via SurveyMonkey / 17-20)
Pollster not a member of BPC.

leave

correct betterbetter and was also responsible for us agreeing to the Lisbon Treaty

"The surveys were mostly conducted after the shock murder of Jo Cox"
Let's hope this turn in the polls is a blip.

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/britains-eu-vote-races-down-061204209.html

I hope Remain harp on about Jo Cox all night at the debate

BBC headline

husband calling it a political murder

the expat vote from within the eu will be high and nearly all of those legible to vote will remain in.

thinkt he ex pat vote form outside the eu will have a lower percentage turnout but will be well over 50% remain.....

The Beckhams (remain)
John Barnes (leave) according to Gove

Gove is beginning to look like Fred Scuttle from the Benny Hill Show.

BBC headline

husband calling it a political murder

yes he's right but not in the way he implies

The disgraceful hype from Cameron and Osborne bears some responsibility for sending Mr Mair over the edge in his mental state. I fully expect every dirty trick in the book to squeeze an extra few votes by the pary machines with lots of experience at the count. My local poll shows 9 Out and only 1 for Remain but we are all over 50.

even Anjem Choudary has an opinion

"British hate preacher Anjem Choudary – who is currently facing charges of supporting Islamic State – has told Breitbart London that he thinks the United Kingdom should stay in the European Union"
“I think that it probably is,” when asked if the European Court’s stance on Islamist extremism is more “desirable” than those of the British government. “There are certain principles and caveats [within EU legislation] that should prevent that [prosecution of Islamists] happening,” he added.

.
http://www.breitbart.com/london/2016/06/21/exclusive-anjem-choudary-says-uk-worse-off-outside-eu-muslim-perspective/

only have to look on front page of mail to see what cameron and the labour luvies have done to this country in this refferendum,a bloke and his kids had some england flags,scarves in his car and someone left a note on his windscreen calling him a racist,now people like me with long memories will remember cameron and his cronies demanding the resignation of emily thornberry for similar comments about a flag of st george hanging out of someones house last year

has TTIP been mentioned anywhere lately?

The European Union plans to bypass national parliaments to implement controversial “free trade” deals, sources have revealed. A leaked letter to the EU’s trade commissioner reveals the Italian government supports blocking democracy on CETA, the “little sister” of the widely opposed TTIP deal.
A report in the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung alleges the European Commission intends to treat the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) deal with Canada as an “EU only” matter.
Sources close to the EU trade commissioner, Cecilia Malmström, reveal the Commission will submit the proposal to bypass national parliaments in July.
.
http://www.breitbart.com/london/2016/06/21/eu-bypass-democracy-trade-deals/

now who said we can change things from within? who said the commission were not unelected dictators?

Unfortuantely most people will be to scared to vote leave because they believe all the scaremongering and can't make their own decisions anymore.

Norway tells the UK, don't let Project Fear intimidate you!
WATCH: Anne Tvinnereim, Deputy Leader of the Norwegian Centre Party, recalls the scaremongering that was heard before her country's last referendum on EU membership. Sound familiar?

"They said we would lose 100,000 jobs. They said the biggest businesses would leave Norway and there would be no more investment. They said the interest rates would increase significantly. They even made a calculation that every Norwegian family would lose £3,000. They said we would be totally isolated if we did not join the EU – they wouldn't want to trade with us and we would have no negotiating power whatsoever. We would be a small, isolated island up in the north with no influence.

"And of course, it was ALL RUBBISH!"

She's right: the year after Norway said no to the EU, unemployment went down and investment went up!

Don't be intimidated into a Remain vote by Project Fear on Thursday. Think of the Norwegians, who held their nerve, stood up to the bullies and are succeeding very, very well as an independent, self-governing democracy – thank you very much!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tXX71EKDKiY

Britain Elects ‏@britainelects  · 11m11 minutes ago 

On which side won the #BBCDebate:
Leave: 39%
Remain: 34%
(via YouGov, online / 21 Jun, post debate)

Britain Elects ‏@britainelects  · 3m3 minutes ago 

EU referendum poll:
Remain: 50% (+2)
Leave: 47% (-2)
(via SurveyMonkey, online)

High percentage of Outters would be more likely to keep that opinion to themselves.... imo.

4.1 out, seems high..

Come in to 3,75  in the last half hour as the Project Fear has been exposed as a lie by the German business leader who says there will be no tariffs.

EU referendum poll:
Remain: 48% (+2)
Leave: 42% (-3)
(via ComRes, phone / 17 - 22 Jun)
22 Jun 2016, 10:00 pm

FATHER-OF-TWO Tom Logan is to front the ‘Don’t Know’ campaign, it has emerged.

Bristol-based Logan, who knows the basics of politics, believes he’s the perfect man for the job as he genuinely does not know who to vote for in the EU referendum.

He said: “I feel very strongly that I don’t know which way to vote or why. I don’t like or trust anyone involved and it all seems rather complicated.

“That’s why we are calling for more information, or perhaps less information because all the information is confusing. To be honest I don’t really know what we want.”

Nikki Hollis, deputy leader of the Don’t Know campaign, told a packed news conference: “I don’t know either. We’re suddenly being asked to think about hardcore economics when we only normally think about more interesting things like going on holiday or television crime drama.

“It’s hard to say what we should do, and it’ll be equally hard to know whether it was the right thing after we’ve done it, because we won’t have done the other thing.

“That’s our message. I think that’s our message anyway. Is that a message?”

The gathered crowd then chanted “We don’t know, we don’t know, we don’t know” as Hollis left the stage.

I'm with Rob Dylan, I will be abstaining, not because "I don't know", (I desperately wanted to vote out) but late information has put me on the fence.

I don't often give financial advice of any sort, but get everything you have on Remain, the surest bet in years.