£390,000 @ 2.62 bet on Brexit

Does that mean there was a single bet of that amount?

I'm no expert.

It's either a single bet OR I believe a number of bets totalling that before a bet went the other direction.
And I think (been a while since I thoguht about this) the money is 1/2 that as a figure, due to the wierd way they total the bet is calculated both ways. Hold on..

Yes, the figure traded is twice the actual money bet, just tested with a whopping large bet from my vast bank

And if you add to it, it adds to the spike.

Okay, so that's £195,000 bet on Brexit by one person as it would be unlikely 2 people would want to go large at the same odds.

Does he know something?

The amounts shown on the graph page just show the amounts matched at those odds which can be over any time, if you look at the actual graph though you can see a spike of just over £400K (£200K+ backer, £200K+ layer) , you can also see that spike covers odds of around 2.62 to 3, so the large bet that came in was a lay bet of £200K+ taking all available prices from 2.62 up to 3 to accomadate all that £200K.

"The amounts shown on the graph page just show the amounts matched at those odds which can be over any time"
I think you mean in the table beside the graph. The graph itself is time dependent, the traded is sum over all time.

"you can also see that spike covers odds of around 2.62 to 3, so the large bet that came in was a lay bet of £200K+ taking all available prices from 2.62 up to 3 to accomadate all that £200K."

Not sure about this, it looks like that on the graph but it's hard to tell, also the traded has a similar amount slap bang on 2.62, and I *think* the traded amounts show actual traded values, not the final bet value input. There is I think a historical bets archive on the site that could settle this if people cared enough.

Why could it not be true that a single back bet mopped up a bunch of lay bets near 2.62 ?

More I think about it, I'm fairly sure not. I've seen fat fingers before mop up bets and you see the individual bits taken on traded. What it may be of course, is it's a booky or someone trading off a liability?
I remember one world cup at a certain time of day in morning loads of big bets would come in, and some of us had come to conclusion it was asian bookies adjusting themself before they shut for the day. But it's a very large amount to be sitting to be matched.

A bookie arbing on here- nothing out of the ordinary

Sir Donald bet

With something like a Brexit bet, could it be someone or a company hedging because they have a financial interest in Stay? E.g. an EU worker who is virtually guaranteed a job for life and fat pension if we stay, but will certainly lose his job if we leave?

I'd consider doing something like that in such a position. Could well be positive expected utility.

Does he know something?

Obviously not as his bet Rocketed to the Moon & fizzled out like a cheap Asda sparkler to the precise Decimal Point

Drifting Like a Barge

May 21, 2016 -- 12:25AM, Mc Moonbeam wrote:

Does he know something? Obviously not as his bet Rocketed to the Moon & fizzled out like a cheap Asda sparkler to the precise Decimal Point

Couldn't it have been someone laying (rather than backing) a massive load at once, though?

Yes , It's simply weight of money Patra

The Back side of the market would've been 1.45 & if you check that side was over 1 million matched at that price !

So you could've just layed instead for like 0.5% difference

I actually lumped on @ 1.45 & was a breaking point in the market & now layed a large chunk off @ 1.31 so have a nice bet to Stay

The Government Panic seems unreal , had a leaflet through my door yesterday , the one side all Scare slogans why we should Stay , turned over expecting to see the flip side ... Nothing !!

Just a 'Make sure You Vote'

Yeah, I can imagine. Not in the country, so imagining will have to do.

Glad to see you posting again, Mooners.

Cheers my Man .. hope you been keeping well in that sun

The Leopard
20 May 16 14:03
Joined: 05 Apr 06
| Topic/replies: 28,360 | Blogger: The Leopard's blog
Why could it not be true that a single back bet mopped up a bunch of lay bets near 2.62 ?


The graph shows the price for that spike starts at around 2.62 and ends at 3 so it would have been a lay bet because the price went up once the available cash from 2.6 was taken and ended around 3 either because there was enough cash available at 3 to finally accomadate the bet or they'd put in odds of 3.

WOW ....makes my 75p bet seem like pennies