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The latest yougov survey has a gambling question which is roughly as follows:
You are offered the following set of gambles, each of which has two possible prizes. The gamble would be based on the outcome of a fair coin toss. The set of gambles and prizes are shown below. If you were offered a free choice of any of these, which one would you choose?
1 - heads wins £28, tails wins £28
2 - heads wins £24, tails wins £36
3 - heads wins £20, tails wins £44
4 - heads wins £16, tails wins £52
5 - heads wins £12, tails wins £60
6 - heads wins £2, tails wins £60
7 - Don't know
I suspect that the chit-chatters top choice will be different to that of the general public. Just a feeling.
You are offered the following set of gambles, each of which has two possible prizes. The gamble would be based on the outcome of a fair coin toss. The set of gambles and prizes are shown below. If you were offered a free choice of any of these, which one would you choose?
1 - heads wins £28, tails wins £28
2 - heads wins £24, tails wins £36
3 - heads wins £20, tails wins £44
4 - heads wins £16, tails wins £52
5 - heads wins £12, tails wins £60
6 - heads wins £2, tails wins £60
7 - Don't know
I suspect that the chit-chatters top choice will be different to that of the general public. Just a feeling.
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i assume it's free to play.....
the correct answer is 5 (average win of £36)
the correct answer is 5 (average win of £36)
At a guess, the question was commissioned by an academic doing research in behavioural economics.
As a one-off, I'd probably go for (2). For repeated plays, (5) has the highest expected value as @DStyle says. I can't see why anyone would prefer (6) to (5) so maybe there is a typo.
As a one-off, I'd probably go for (2). For repeated plays, (5) has the highest expected value as @DStyle says. I can't see why anyone would prefer (6) to (5) so maybe there is a typo.
Drat - a mistake.
The 2nd last option should read
6 - heads wins £2, tails wins £70
apologias
The offer is for one play only.
The 2nd last option should read
6 - heads wins £2, tails wins £70
apologias
The offer is for one play only.
number 5 obviously, who wouldn't do that?
the prize pot is higher than any of the others. £72.
the prize pot is higher than any of the others. £72.
ok number 6 is the same value @ £72,
but still go for 5 as gtd to make more on the lower side.
but still go for 5 as gtd to make more on the lower side.
No obvious answer.
If you're hungry, subject to JSA sanctions, home is a park bench and employment impossible, the answer is (1). You need every possible guaranteed penny to get to the end of the week.
If you're Billy Big B0llocks, and a few quid either way is going to make zero difference to your life, then go for the revised (6) (£2 or £70). You might as well have a free shot at the biggest possible prize, as it makes no difference if you don't get it.
If you're hungry, subject to JSA sanctions, home is a park bench and employment impossible, the answer is (1). You need every possible guaranteed penny to get to the end of the week.
If you're Billy Big B0llocks, and a few quid either way is going to make zero difference to your life, then go for the revised (6) (£2 or £70). You might as well have a free shot at the biggest possible prize, as it makes no difference if you don't get it.
its like deal or no deal
2 boxes left 5,000 and 250,000
you get offered 50,000
you have a 50% chance of a prize pot of 255,000
You should always gamble but most people would take 50,000
2 boxes left 5,000 and 250,000
you get offered 50,000
you have a 50% chance of a prize pot of 255,000
You should always gamble but most people would take 50,000
id go with box 1.
at least you've had a day out & you've walked away level
at least you've had a day out & you've walked away level
ah, i miss read.
i think id change then to box 7 "don't know"
i think id change then to box 7 "don't know"
does it tell you what steak you have to plaice ?
really need to know what the stake is... if it's a free spin, I'd have to go with 4
5 or 6 - probably 5 but it would depend if i'd been drinking
5 Compared with 1 you are staking 16 to win 32 on an even money shot.
Bets 2 to 4 stake lower amounts at the same odds.
Bet6 stakes 26 to win 42 so not such good odds.
So over all I would choose bet 5.
Bets 2 to 4 stake lower amounts at the same odds.
Bet6 stakes 26 to win 42 so not such good odds.
So over all I would choose bet 5.
Would add that compared with bet 5, bet 6 stakes the extra £10 at evens on an evens shot so no value for the extra stake.
whoops, not even that, stake £10 and either get £10 back or lose it compared with 5.
The game is free to play ( 'free' is in the description of the game ). You get to play one time only.
should be an option that incurs a loss, eg heads lose 10, tails win 90 ....
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