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Chit Chat
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04 Jun 15
11:47
Joined:
Date Joined:
21 May 10
With doubts over those at the top of the market, there may well be value elsewhere.
At the moment I'm leaning towards Hans Holbein.
Zawraq is out, btw
At the moment I'm leaning towards Hans Holbein.
Zawraq is out, btw
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Golden Horn
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Jack Hobbs is the puck on races so far.
Piled on. |
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Golden Horn does tick a lot of boxes but his owner, who knows a thing or two about pedigrees, has expressed doubts as to whether he'll stay.
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Jack Hobbs is the puck on races so far.
Really? A Wolverhampton maiden, a hcap and 2nd in the Dante. |
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whatever someone tells me is a cert
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Dante form is the best so far.
Golden horn won't stay the derby trip. |
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I agree MT, I couldn't be backing Golden Horn at 7/4 and I'm not going to argue with Anthony Oppenheimer.
But, imvho, 'staying' is a relative concept. He'll stay the trip if the opposition isn't up to much. |
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Might have a bash at Moheet, based purely on breeding.
The Craven and Guineas was never his trip anyway, despite him falling out the stalls and having to be snatched up in the latter. |
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On breeding, Jack Hobbs isn't the likeliest stayer either. I'll not be touching either of them but I'd rather be on Golden Horn.
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Moheet's dam, by Pivotal never raced over further than 7f RTB. Not sure he fits the breeding bill either.
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10p each-way on the favourite.
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I can see you are careful with your money so steer clear of a firm called Pandora Turf Accountants, heard bad stuff about their pay out limits.
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If you wanna open pandora s box then
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Yes agree. Just think jack Hobbs has the best derby profile this year.
If I'm wrong it won't be the first time but at 66-1 and 33-1 I'm happy. Got a few bets today if they win I'll be topping up in morning. |
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Mikael
I only have rudimentary knowledge of breeding and rely pretty much solely on Doseage Profiling plus a couple of bespoke spreadsheets I've done which looks at sires that stamp precocity (or conversely, slow maturing) progeny. Moheet looked an interesting performer purely on that basis. |
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Been totally underwhelmed by the Derby for many years now, I know I am in a minority & I know its worth tens of millions to a potential winners connections but to me its a race full of so called promising three year old's which does produce the odd genuine superstar but many of the runners have yet to really prove their worth & a large percentage of the runners in the race often end up as listed class or below.
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I`d agree with you there pumphol.
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Is that a 'NO BET' then?
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I'm glad you agree Shane
 Probably Nick, I remember in the 80's or early 90's backing a horse I am pretty sure it was a 200/1 shot & was collared for third on the line ( wish I could remember the name of it )been several years since I have even looked at the form for the race BEFORE the night before the race, I do like Epsom as a track for fining winners as its unique & horses for courses is certainly apt at the track not a comment you could use for the Derby as almost all of the horses would never have run at the track before the race. |
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Might try a Lay of Jack Hobbs if the price contracts between now and the off.
Beaten horses in the Dante Stakes have a terrible record in the Derby (bar Workforce) and I don't think ANY beaten horse from the Dante has ever then reversed the form with its Dante conqueror. |
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The other negative for Golden Horn is that he made his debut at Nottingham. It's extremely rare for a Derby winner to start at a lower grade track.
Although, tbh, I don't know how many Dante winners debut at minor tracks. |
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...obviously the same goes for Jack Hobbs (Wolverhapton mdn)
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Fancied Zawraq because of how well he settled over a slow run 9 furlongs; didn't think he had too much to find with Golden Horn/Jack Hobbs.
The only thing that's put me off Golden Horn is that he was keen LTO despite it being a stronger run race over shorter. That being said, that's the only reason I can find and there's bound to be a good pace set tomorrow to help calm him down. He's 5 or 6 pounds clear of Jack Hobbs and 10 pounds+ clear of everything else. Wins IMO. |
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The other negative for Golden Horn is that he made his debut at Nottingham.
funnily enough Slip Anchor won his 2yo maiden at nottingham (2nd start) and oh so sharp won on her debut there; not sure if anything like that has happened ever since? |
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Not sure but all Derby winners over the last 10 years made their debuts at Grade 1 tracks
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To say Golden Horn wont stay is a guess, Cape Cross offspring win at any distance. Given GH racing form so far i cannot see why a dante winner not staying 2f extra, anyone know the last dante winner not to stay 1m4f ?
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Giovanni Canaletto ,needs to improve but the flood of money for it reminds very much of the gamble on Gleneagles for the guineas, a lot of money in a short space of time especially from these connections could be significant !
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I'm going to the derby for the first time...look at me, look at me
 Anyway I'll probably back Jack Hobbs. |
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Nothing, I wan't be having a bet.
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pumphol. 04 Jun 15 14:20
I remember in the 80's or early 90's backing a horse I am pretty sure it was a 200/1 shot & was collared for third on the line . https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TrMqPtfg9zA Bit later than I thought 1998, third everywhere but the line  |
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*won't*
I'll do Elm Park in the placepot cometition though and will have that in my perm. |
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When do you think you'll get over this?
 Actually, I did have a look through the results. Started at 1995 and worked backwards. |
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It was 17 years ago but has been long in the memory & seems longer maybe I'll be able to move on at some stage
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Pretty sure I took 250/1 in the morning
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I've done Hans Holbein, Storm The Stars and Moheet in a small combination reverse forecast
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I've backed Hans Holbein at 16/1, Moheet at 33s and Success Days at 18/1, all ew.
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Nowt. I don't bet in selling races..
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Storm The Stars 20/1 e/w, for me.
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Giovanni Canaletto has been well backed. 6/1 from 10s earlier.
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