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Chit Chat
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21 Jan 10
22:57
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Date Joined:
14 Sep 04
Good evening Study. :)
Just a quick question regarding that discussion the other night concerning the odds of dealing certain hands at brag.
After the first card has been dealt ( let's assume it is the 7 ♥ ) there remains a pool of three cards from which the next must fall to keep alive the chance of trips ( 7 ♦ 7 ♣ 7 ♠ ) but four cards are still active for the potential straight flush ( 5 ♥ 6 ♥ 8 ♥ 9 ♥ )
Should this fact have any bearing on your calculations, sir?
Just a quick question regarding that discussion the other night concerning the odds of dealing certain hands at brag.
After the first card has been dealt ( let's assume it is the 7 ♥ ) there remains a pool of three cards from which the next must fall to keep alive the chance of trips ( 7 ♦ 7 ♣ 7 ♠ ) but four cards are still active for the potential straight flush ( 5 ♥ 6 ♥ 8 ♥ 9 ♥ )
Should this fact have any bearing on your calculations, sir?
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he is out tonight pm
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For anyone else looking in, we were discussing which hand was rarer in the game of brag:
Three of a kind or a straight flush. Trips wins in most games of course, but Study pointed out that there are actually fewer permutations of the running flush. |
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3 of a kind is 3/51 * 2/50 imo = 1/425
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Cheers Joe. I'll bump the thread tomorrow in that case, sir.
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don't know how to work out easily the running flush. don't play brag but i presume you can't run through the ace..... K A 2 isn't a run is it? in which case the calc is a little more complicated.
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Correct sir. QKA is a run. KA2 is not.
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did think about this yesterday as it happens.
played pool tonight and it suddenly appeared quite obvious to me that there is no way i could put top spin on a ball, |
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Study has calculated that there are fifty-two potential variations of trips, but only forty-eight ways to hit a straight flush.
And I believe him, but does it automatically follow that a straight flush is rarer based on my question in the original post? |
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Thanks Rob. :)
I did feel that the general consensus regarding topspin was swinging my way towards the end. Enjoyable debate. |
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Hello - just got in.
To answer you question PM,... I don't know! It might have a bearing, but i would have thought that 52 chances against 48 is still favourite, as 3 cards are dealt to everyone straight out so there's no depending on subsequent cards. |
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Thinking about it - From your 1st post,
if you have the 7hearts, you can't necessarily draw any of the surrounding for the next 2 cards, for example - you draw a 9hearts, then the ONLY card available becomes the 8hearts (ie ONE card), whereas a 2nd 7 would still give 2 chances. |
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Hi Study. :)
This has got me quite interested. Your figures appear irrefutable, sir, and yet with one card down it occured to me that a running flush had the greater potential. |
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Sorry, crossed posts there.
Yes, what you say is true, but there is still a four card pool from which to keep one's hopes of a straight flush alive. And only three for trips. And, of course, one of these four may well fall as the 6 ♥ or the 8 ♥ |
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What made me think of this by the way, Study, is that I must of played a million hands of brag in my time and, although I could easily be mistaken, I have a sense of witnessing more running flushes than trips.
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so, if it's the 6 or the 8 there are 2 possibles for the last card,and if its a 5 or 9 there is only one!.
which means (on average) : One of 4 for the second card then One of 1.5 for the 3rd - except if the 1st card is an Ace (or indeed a King or a 2). Any card for trips is One of 3, then one of 2 for every 1st card. |
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and, by the way - you must be mad playing that much Brag :)
The game gets on my nerves (especially when some greedy git plays blind all night) |
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Yes, sir, that seems to be the facts of it.
Very interesting question by the way. Maybe we should start a new thread with a more appropriate title to see what the combined brains of Chit Chat think on the matter? |
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Feel free mate ;)
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