Forums
Welcome to Live View – Take the tour to learn more
Start Tour
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
FifthGeneration
07 Dec 09 15:50
Joined:
Date Joined: 22 Dec 08
| Topic/replies: 2,156 | Blogger: FifthGeneration's blog
Big moment, penny & 1/4 million, don't usually watch this by the way!
Pause • Switch to Standard View Deal or No Deal - Now
Show More
Loading...
Report SwindonBoy • December 7, 2009 3:51 PM GMT
she so deserves it
Report backtolay • December 7, 2009 3:52 PM GMT
She's either fearless or must really hate her kids and grandkids
Report SwindonBoy • December 7, 2009 3:53 PM GMT
omg sick :(
Report matthew0 • December 7, 2009 3:54 PM GMT
what was her last offer??
Report FifthGeneration • December 7, 2009 3:54 PM GMT
She must have a few quid already (i hope)
Report FifthGeneration • December 7, 2009 3:54 PM GMT
88k
Report silverwasp • December 7, 2009 3:54 PM GMT
88k
Report travelling_man.. • December 7, 2009 3:54 PM GMT
They now hate her!
Report Far From Trouble • December 7, 2009 3:54 PM GMT
MELTDOWN
Report SwindonBoy • December 7, 2009 3:54 PM GMT
88k
Report matthew0 • December 7, 2009 3:55 PM GMT
jeez.
Report silverwasp • December 7, 2009 3:55 PM GMT
greedy b1tch
Report lmfao • December 7, 2009 3:57 PM GMT
brave girl- admirable lady- life winner imo
Report JimmyK • December 7, 2009 4:02 PM GMT
one of lifes winners there, just a good person who came on to play the game till the end.
Report Big Charlie • December 8, 2009 3:26 PM GMT
MUG imo

I'd have definitely taken the £88k.

Be different if it was £75k and £250k, then I'd say 'no deal'
Report Aberdeen Angus • December 8, 2009 3:28 PM GMT
She did the right thing
2/1 for an even money bet
Chance to win 250K and not risking any of her own money :)
Report No chatname registerd • December 8, 2009 3:33 PM GMT
I desperately wanted her to Win.

How refreshing to say a bold, fearless, risk-taking FEmale!
Report P • December 8, 2009 3:34 PM GMT
she was stupid.imvho......
Report JUGADOR MEJOR • December 8, 2009 3:35 PM GMT
Where are you watching this show a parallel universe?
Report Big Charlie • December 8, 2009 3:37 PM GMT
Only for premium charge betfairians
Report JUGADOR MEJOR • December 8, 2009 3:42 PM GMT
I pay PC, quite a lot actually !!!!
Report Trading Places • December 8, 2009 3:47 PM GMT
nice bored...250k still there
Report Big Charlie • December 8, 2009 3:49 PM GMT
:)
Report Gene Hackman • December 8, 2009 3:55 PM GMT
It's not fixed by the way.
Report Brodie • December 8, 2009 4:18 PM GMT
She's probably been there a few weeks and I look at it that £88k is a good whack.

The odds are irrelevent as is the value because this is a one shot deal, she doesn't come back and play another 50 games.

If the one box contained 1p and the other 1 billion quid ,people are saying they would turn down an offer of 100 million because they would be getting 9-1 about an even money shot. Reality people! ;)
Report Hoss • December 8, 2009 4:55 PM GMT
How can the odds be irrelevant ? The banker uses odds to try and get the contestant to deal for a price lower than the true odds. The mugs are the people who settle for less.

The truth is you can't beat the banker, the only way of getting true value is to play it to the end and accept what's in your box.

Would shut Edmonds up as well.
Report brendanuk1 • December 8, 2009 4:56 PM GMT
cant eat value
Report Brodie • December 8, 2009 5:00 PM GMT
I was saying the odds are irrelevant in certain cases.
Would you gamble £100 million pounds to win a billion because the odds dictated as such?
Of course not.
All relative, and in this case ( I didn't watch the show ) the woman was either rich and didn't need the £88k or caught up in the moment.
It was evens she'd win a penny and evens she'd win £250k.
When you get to ceratin amounts of cash the odds do become largely irrelevant. An hour before, she had nothing and an hour later she could have had £88k. Not a bad rate.
Report Brodie • December 8, 2009 5:02 PM GMT
You can't get 'true value' though Hoss.
If you are getting 11-10 about a coin toss ,then over a period of time you will realise that edge.
With one toss ,you won't.
She was not coming back to play the game again and again.
Report Aberdeen Angus • December 8, 2009 5:02 PM GMT
Evens foe 1p or 250K but still getting 2/1 for even money shot. :)
Report Aberdeen Angus • December 8, 2009 5:03 PM GMT
* for
Report Capt__F • December 8, 2009 5:03 PM GMT
must have been loaded imo
Report Brodie • December 8, 2009 5:04 PM GMT
She went home with 1 penny. It's not about beating the banker ( well it isn't for me ) it's about getting cash.
Report Brodie • December 8, 2009 5:05 PM GMT
Angus ,if I walked up to you in the street and said here is £88k ,its yours, but then said bet it on a coint toss and you could get £250k?
You would bet it? Honestly?
I can understand small amounts but that much?
Report Aberdeen Angus • December 8, 2009 5:07 PM GMT
Would consider it carefully :)
Report Brodie • December 8, 2009 5:09 PM GMT
If your missus was standing next to you I'd wager she'd kill you if you gambled ;)
Women are usually anti-risk aint they :D
Report Fenway • December 8, 2009 5:11 PM GMT
An interesting discussion.

Is the difference between 88k and 250k worth more than the difference between 88k and nothing. Each has their own opinion, based not upon the odds (at least for many people) but upon life's circumstances.
Report Aberdeen Angus • December 8, 2009 5:13 PM GMT
Woman yesterday was 74 who needed 200K for her dream car.
88K was no use to her so right decision to gamble and good odds.
Everyones needs/circumstances differ.
Was gutted for her.
Report Brodie • December 8, 2009 5:16 PM GMT
Is that true ? She wanted a £200k car? What a woman! :D
Report Aberdeen Angus • December 8, 2009 5:17 PM GMT
:)
Report Hoss • December 8, 2009 5:19 PM GMT
If you had an accumulater in the bookies, 6 horses and five had won. you have an even money in the last to win £250,000.

I'm sure the bookie would be happy to offer you half the current value of your ticket to take your betting slip off you.
Report Brodie • December 8, 2009 5:22 PM GMT
You mean there is £125k running on at evens and the bookie offers you £62.5k , hoss?
Report Lisa Simpson • December 8, 2009 5:26 PM GMT
Brodie 08 Dec 18:05
Angus ,if I walked up to you in the street and said here is £88k ,its yours, but then said bet it on a coint toss and you could get £250k?
You would bet it? Honestly?


That's what the game is all about - as a simple maths game and gambling proposition the correct course of action is invariably to open the box. The banker's offers become an irrelvance.
Pyschologically, it's a different matter, and that's what has made the game a success.
Another way to view it is, would you sell your car for half its value? Substitute the word 'box' for car and people do - regularly.
The best course of action is to go on, and hum extremely loudly over all the offers, turn your back to the board and take the amount in your box.
Report Hoss • December 8, 2009 5:28 PM GMT
Yep.
Report Hoss • December 8, 2009 5:38 PM GMT
If I could put it another way, when the banker makes hi final offer your box has an actual value, which is the mean average of the remaining two boxes. Add them both together then halve that number. If I went into my local high street bank with a business plan, which is to outbid the banker by 20% each time, after doing the figures my local bank manager would be falling over himself trying to lend me the money :)
Report brendanuk1 • December 8, 2009 5:42 PM GMT
doesnt make sense to me to use value here, its a once off. Dont blame her for having a go, but in this situation its all pratical no theory
Report Lisa Simpson • December 8, 2009 5:45 PM GMT
Value is the only tool you have :D
Makes no sense not too use it
Report brendanuk1 • December 8, 2009 5:47 PM GMT
the cash amount offered to take away, means more to me than getting value on a coin flip, but each to their own :)
Report Brodie • December 8, 2009 5:50 PM GMT
There's a few on here who WOULD risk a £100 million offer on boxes of 1p and £1billion ,purely because of the odds.
Fair play to you, but don't come crying to me !
Report Brodie • December 8, 2009 5:52 PM GMT
I've decided I would take the £62.5 k hoss. I'd be loathe to be had over by a bookie as would any gambler ,but he's going to get lots of opportunities to lay under the odds and realise his edge.
I've gotta do what's good for me though ,so tyvm gimme the cash.
If he offered me £40k erm..............
Report Lisa Simpson • December 8, 2009 5:55 PM GMT
This notion that becasue it's a one off then value plays no part is flawed. Going back to the coin toss motif, let's say you had to put up £500 on one toss but if you won you'd get back £20000. Or £10,000. Or £5000.
Surely you'd take it? That's all Deal or No Deal does but with generally larger amounts of money and often with people who have no clue. You know, the ones who prepared for the game by asking their friends to choose feckin' numbers - instead of learning basic odds like with 8 numbers left, what are the chances of taking out the 3 highest amounts? ie. the sort of stuff that might be vaguely useful.
Report Brodie • December 8, 2009 5:57 PM GMT
You do agree that it was evens she'd win a penny and evens she'd win £250k?
You are saying that you would risk 100 million to win a billion because you are getting 9-1 about evens ?
Report Brodie • December 8, 2009 5:58 PM GMT
I'm saying that the odds are irrelevant when we get to certain amounts.
Report brendanuk1 • December 8, 2009 6:01 PM GMT
let's say you had to put up £500 on one toss but if you won you'd get back £20000. Or £10,000. Or £5000.

She is risking 88k on a single coin toss. I doubt most people have 88k in cash let alone prepared to risk it on one coin toss. She got caught up in the emotion of the game imo.
Report Big Charlie • December 8, 2009 6:03 PM GMT
Lisa Simpson 08 Dec 18:55
- instead of learning basic odds like with 8 numbers left, what are the chances of taking out the 3 highest amounts? ie. the sort of stuff that might be vaguely useful.


55/1 to wipe out the top 3.

And with just 5 numbers left people are still tempted to go on, even though they are down to 9/1 to knock out the top 3 again, but more importantly, they are 4/6 to knock out the biggest prize on the board.
Report Hoss • December 8, 2009 6:09 PM GMT
Ha ha, I think we'll have to agree to disagree :)

As a somewhat successful gambler, my life is ruled by probabilities and odds. It's what determines wether I bet or not.

I would always let it ride.

If every contestant only opened the box at the end, the average return over a series would be way higher :)

But back to my 1st line, I think we'll have to agree to disagree :)
Report Lisa Simpson • December 8, 2009 6:11 PM GMT
Erm yes I knew what they were Charlie :-|
Report Brodie • December 8, 2009 6:21 PM GMT
The best value was the £88k prize for zero outlay. The woman never had to put her hand in her purse and ante up!
The crappy part is where the banker asked her to actually play with her own money ( the £88k at the end ).
Confused ? I know I am :D ;)
Report Hoss • December 8, 2009 6:25 PM GMT
Brodie, 1 thing I think we can agree on, she was very brave, and accepted her loss with great dignity.
Report Hoss • December 8, 2009 6:30 PM GMT
Or are you agreeing that the banker was a sh1t for only offering £88k for her box when it was worth £125,000.50p :D

Only joking ;)
Report Brodie • December 8, 2009 6:30 PM GMT
OMG theres a gameshow where a million can be won on the toss of a coin ,just been advertised on ch5.
Oh lordy ,get me a calcualtor and aspirin please ;)
Report brendanuk1 • December 8, 2009 6:37 PM GMT
OMG theres a gameshow where a million can be won on the toss of a coin ,just been advertised on ch5.

If it was open auction to bid for right to play on the show, only very very rich gamblers would play.
Report Big Charlie • December 8, 2009 9:28 PM GMT
Lisa Simpson 08 Dec 19:11
Erm yes I knew what they were Charlie


Erm yes I realised that.

But perhaps others didn't.
Report Lisa Simpson • December 8, 2009 9:33 PM GMT
Perhaps they're on the right site then - let's not tell them any more.
Post Your Reply
<CTRL+Enter> to submit
Please login to post a reply.

Wonder

Instance ID: 13539
www.betfair.com