Cheltenham Festival
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30 Dec 25
16:48
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Date Joined:
07 Sep 15
My 5 shorties are Sir Gino (7/4), Lulamba (6/4), Fact To File (10/3), Teahupoo (5/2) and Final Demand (1/1). How many of these are solid betting propositions for a minimum treble and upward bets? Will a lowest odds win treble recoup the stake money?
Apart from Sir Gino, possibly Lulamba and a new recruit(s) to the Festival the rest of the entire Cheltenham casts are pretty nondescript where this Festival is concerned ie nothing special.
Apart from Sir Gino, possibly Lulamba and a new recruit(s) to the Festival the rest of the entire Cheltenham casts are pretty nondescript where this Festival is concerned ie nothing special.
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Hope you didn't invest in Sir Gino. I make Marine Nationale the banker of the meeting at the moment but no doubt he will run badly tomorrow and scupper that one. I am reluctant to back any novices over hurdles or fences yet but No Drama This End looks to be way ahead of GB rivals. I am not really convinced about Lulamba yet and certainly not at less than 7/2. Teahupoo is the best of the older horses and the Stayers is the most reliable race in which to back a previous winner. Just a lingering doubt about Bob Olinger after last year. Dinoblue seems pretty bomb proof but the opposition is yet to be confirmed. Good luck if you go ahead.
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And now Final Demand bites the dust!
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Fates and weather have skewed antepost post badly than ever. As such, a watching brief until Festival week with nrnb. I think Final Demand will do better with a sounder surface, a better price too, I hope.
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Final Demand is inclined to back off fences. I’d back him over hurdles but he’ll still be daft odds over fences at Cheltenham.
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FD is 5/1 from 6/4. One bad race esp on bad ground does not constitute a loss in ability or fate. This alone is incentive for backing if he turns up.
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So many changes in markets after day 1 but the going could explain some of it. The novice hurdle was a very close finish between three so perhaps none are exceptional. Majborough looked a completely different horse but Cheltenham could test his jumping with the ups and downs. Golden Ace still looks outstanding value for the CH.
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Bad ground is a lame excuse. Since when did it inconvenience Mullins horses? FD doesn’t fancy fences.
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Fact To File ran a stormer. He was 100x better today than he was in the King George. There's a major difference in opinion between the Ryanair markets here and online too. He's odds-on (with most) against 4.3 here. This could be due to JP having him and Jon Bon for the Ryanair.
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He sure did. I think he was given a poor ride in the John Durkan and that could have taken the edge off in the KG. He has certainly overturned the form with Gaelic Warrior in no uncertain terms. Plenty of horses have had an off day in the KG then have gone on to win the GC. Certainly worth a go as the first two in the race last year have regressed.
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If you go a slow pace you usually get close results see The new one's last race hth
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Whatever the original plan, JP will be asking himself which of his horses has the best chance of winning the Gold Cup and as things stand it has to be Fact to File.
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Fact To File has been beaten in every 3m+ competitive chases bar one. I think Fact To File would be a near cert in The Ryanair, if ridden with confidence.
Gaelic Warrior was still hurting from his exuberance run in the John Durkan, and King George on Monday. However, Fact To File was looked after once he was not performing early in the King George. Jango Baie, The Jukebox Man, Bainbridge, Haiti Couleurs and Gaelic Warrior will once again outstay Fact To File at Cheltenham. |
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Fact To File has been beaten in every 3m+ competitive chases bar one.
Brown Advisory and Irish Gold Cup ? |
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What and where were the signs of Gaelic Warrior "hurting" in the Irish Gold Cup?
He pulled hard for the first two miles! |
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I don't think there was any exuberance in king George as they crawled the whole race,if anything Gaelic warrior would have travelled a hell of a lot better if they went quicker he couldn't cope with the sprint finish.
No one will fear Bannbridge as he's not going there. |
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Apparently the Sun Alliance was slowly run, and he was long odds-on. Only 6 took part. He'd be my 'lay' of the meeting, if fav.
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The markets are swaying toward The Ryanair and Gold Cup for Fact To File and Gaelic Warrior respectively. However, a change is always likely given the connections despite less than two weeks to go prior to the Festival.
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Use nrnb then if it bothers you that much
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Every horse has a target from yonks out, this year it’s one’s turn to take its chance at glory. I’m a flat man but even this jumper has my mouth watering…
Just watching back comments from trainers on YouTube from past races and it’s amazes me the planning that goes into this  |
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Anyone want a link to a race where he tells you the route?
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Yes 'Delashay'.
I like GW for the Gold Cup but the unexpected and blatant attempt by 'ladcrooks' to steal my deposit has put me off betting since. Also, I do not have much like backing GW. He was backed with impunity in an earlier Cheltenham Festival handicap hurdle race, but made a howler of a mistake at the last yet finished 2nd. |
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I recall what happened to you impossible, it’s disgusting
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The last time L Du Sud raced against the current CC fav Maj in the Arkle there was only 3/4 L between the pair, if as yesterdays article is right and they are correct in that he needs to be fresh to be at his best then 13/8 to 7/1 looks a bit of a big discrepancy in pricing between the pair on the formbook.
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marine nat outta champ chase
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Lord du skud shortened now much closer now odds wise
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LIVENicky Henderson provides Jonbon update after Marine Nationale ruled out of Champion Chase - Majborough now odds-on
Nothing to read there! Click bait headline!  But he’s in real,y good nick apparently before a stone bruise and being found lame and waiting for Aintree!  |
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Hendo has sustained a stone bruise or Jonbon?
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An excuse is likely should he side step for Aintree, like the one Hannon used for Rosie when he missed the Marois!
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Shame Marine Nat misses the festival
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No stone bruise but to be left in as a precaution, all intentions of going to Aintree over 3 miles, but they couldn’t change their mind could they and SUPP FTF on Saturday?
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Clerk of the course to water before Tuesday.
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That ain’t no surprise they’re obsessed with doing so
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Here Brandy, my thoughts from my own form reading vs prices. It’s now 9th March no one said no chance but he’s a fav they have real short for me.
Delashay • March 3, 2026 7:56 AM GMT The last time L Du Sud raced against the current CC fav Maj in the Arkle there was only 3/4 L between the pair, if as yesterdays article is right and they are correct in that he needs to be fresh to be at his best then 13/8 to 7/1 looks a bit of a big discrepancy in pricing between the pair on the formbook. Skelton will try to take Maj off his feet early into making a mistake I’d of thought. Maybe Mullins’ other runner will try to pick up pieces should the JP horse fail because of the tactics. |
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I think the two of Mr Mullins are not keen on a pacey race. Both are susceptible to "walk like an Egyptian" when the pace is furious. Their eyes and feet coordination have tended to be out-of-sync when that happens.
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impossible123 • March 9, 2026 3:57 PM GMT
I think the two of Mr Mullins are not keen on a pacey race. Both are susceptible to "walk like an Egyptian Great description |
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Backed both against the odds on shot, didn’t play out as expected but hey it’s another winner from a defeated runner for Mullins last time out!
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Arkle 2025
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WGkmgdAo4a8 This is worth watching back with yesterday’s Champion chase fresh in mind. Maj was 4/9 and a 5 yr old hadn’t won the Arkle for 19 years since the weights were changed! Brandy you’ll hear Hollies say that Jangeo would of gone for the JLT or whatever, (that’s going back to our was he a second string for Sir Gino discussion) I’m not focusing on that but it’s worth watching to see just how badly outpaced he was before the second last. He ran on and only just got up on the line. Question for you all, did he beat weak a stayer wover two miles? Lord de Skud was well beat over the trip yesterday, faded in this after going in front after Maj skidded. Is he susceptible to being outstayed by a stronger stayers as he seemed to be in the KG, he had every chance to go by but couldn’t. The other two found again towards the line. Might be worth re watching that too as Xmas seems yonks away now. |
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I had a big ? next to L'eau Du Sud after his tame finish in last years Arkle.
Jango Bai was never a two miler and only ran in the Arkle when Sir Gino picked up that infection. Personally, I dont worry too much about looking for a slow stayer to win the Gold Cup. I'd much rather be with a class horse. Im in a fortunate position with the odds on Gaelic Warrior where I can back a couple in here. Jango Baie is definitely one i will want on side. |
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Jango Bai was never a two miler and only ran in the Arkle when Sir Gino picked up that infection
I’ll save you the cut and paste, but it’s nice to see that you now concur that he was the second string going into last years Arkle and I wasn’t so wrong after all!  |