Cheltenham Festival
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Well it has reached that point where all value is now gone and taking part in Cheltenham antepost with weather changing late and a dominating stable with so many options for switching late are making it lethal to back at the measly prices on offer.
Ballyburn short price for the Supreme switched late so losing stakes on it and those backing in the Sun Alliance Hurdle having the carpet pulled from under their feet late. If both races were taken nrnb he was around evens to odds on for both.
Gaelic Warrior off the back of a poor performance being put in the Arkle quite late then bolting up winning easily after the late’ish withdrawal of original fav Marine Nationale.
Constitution Hill pulled late from the Champion Hurdle.
Henderson withdrawing horses due to x such as second favourite Jonbon on the day from the Champion Chase.
I somehow made a profit from this mess starting the week before the meeting and mainly on the day so far but only because i was hardly involved antepost which i showed a loss of £1,300 for due to horse race switching late.
Goodbye Cheltenham antepost it was nice knowing you over the years.
Ballyburn short price for the Supreme switched late so losing stakes on it and those backing in the Sun Alliance Hurdle having the carpet pulled from under their feet late. If both races were taken nrnb he was around evens to odds on for both.
Gaelic Warrior off the back of a poor performance being put in the Arkle quite late then bolting up winning easily after the late’ish withdrawal of original fav Marine Nationale.
Constitution Hill pulled late from the Champion Hurdle.
Henderson withdrawing horses due to x such as second favourite Jonbon on the day from the Champion Chase.
I somehow made a profit from this mess starting the week before the meeting and mainly on the day so far but only because i was hardly involved antepost which i showed a loss of £1,300 for due to horse race switching late.
Goodbye Cheltenham antepost it was nice knowing you over the years.
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All you can look forward to now on here is insiders laying late switchers in the week before.
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Sir Gino favourite for the Triumph for a long time withdrawn from tomorrows race along with Shiskin yesterday for the Gold Cup.
Anyone with nrnb on those at odds of Evens must be well relieved. |
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> All you can look forward to now on here is insiders laying late switchers in the week before.
I thought BF were supposed to have some sort of police force to prevent this? It's easily spotted too. |
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Ricci Richi told about 400 people at a preview show week before Cheltenham I was at the following:-
1) Gaelic Warrior announced as running in Arkle (and take 8/1 now)  2) Monkfish would run in Gold Cup 3) Lossiemouth would run in Mares (unless Stateman was injured before decs) 4) Lossiemouth would not run in Mares next season as he wants her to run in Champion Hurdle whatever. It’s his favourite horse and he is desperate for her to at least have a go. He kept saying back her now if you want as if fit she will definitely go there. First 3 were correct. If you then take 5/2 fav out of Mares then others look at other potential options then to me Brighterdaysahead at 10/1 is just about value if you think she will improve for extra distance and another year development. She is one of the only potential players in this division looking at this years races ? Only bet I’ve had for next year. |
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When will she go chasing?
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No plans to go chasing at this stage.
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The confidence with which Elliott had been talking about her warrants her being given the benefit of the doubt. one would assume that Lossie is going to have to be tested against State Man at some point through the season and using him as a gauge to compare to Constitution Hill you'd think that she'd need to be comfortably on top of him for them to be confident of taking on C. Hill, providing all is well with him of course I wouldn't rule out her rocking up in the Mares, you've also got Ballyburn potentially as a player and maybe even Sir Gino, I don't think he is a certainty to go chasing as a 5 year old.
I wonder if Lossie could take on State Man at Punchestown? |
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Racing post news feed:
Dawn Run remains the only horse in the history of the sport to have won the Champion Hurdle and the Gold Cup, but Willie Mullins thinks he might have finally found another one capable of emulating the legendary mare in the shape of last week's glorious Gallagher Novices' Hurdle winner Ballyburn. The audacious double has rarely been tried, or even thought about by trainers, but Ballyburn is a unique individual who could have the necessary speed and stamina to have a crack at it according to the man who knows him best of all. Dawn Run won the Champion Hurdle in 1984 and followed up in the Gold Cup two years later for Willie's father Paddy, and connections of Ballyburn will have a big decision to make this summer about whether to stick around over hurdles for another season or switch to fences. By the sound of things, Mullins is keen to have a crack at the 2025 Champion Hurdle and he feels that the first leg of the famous Dawn Run double might be the trickiest to achieve as he is convinced Ballyburn is every inch a chaser. Speaking about the prospect of trying to follow in the hallowed hoofprints of Dawn Run with Ballyburn, Mullins said: "You have to look for the right horse who could do it, and it struck me that he would fit the bill in my book. He might be the right horse to try and do it with. "If he happens to be lucky enough to win a Champion Hurdle, and that will be tough, he could do it because he looks like a real chasing model. He's a horse who you could attempt it with." |
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Lossiemouth is off to French champion next. That will be it for the season from what he said.
He wants to give her the opportunity to win next year’s Champion Hurdle whatever the opposition. Doubt he’ll change target from what he said as was telling people to bet on her and was saying 100% where she’ll go. Nick Luck was there and not sure if he’s mentioned it ? |
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By the next champion hurdle it will be 3 years since Constitution Hill's career best. He may well be regressing by then. Doubt he'll scare off too many of the Mullins big guns.
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With the Mares race being a practical gimme they'll want to know beforehand exactly where they stand with her compared to her stablemates, if she hasn't shown to be at least on a par with them beforehand will they really bother or will they take the gimme of the Mares.
I wonder if Ricci is now quietly kicking himself for not running her in it this year with next years renewal looking potentially the strongest for years, there could be at least four top notchers in it. |
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Usual Post rubbish , Night Nurse 2 Champion hurdles and a Gold Cup second probably sets the standard .
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After dissing Cheltenham antepost i just got a decent bet on for next year lol. Who’d have thought it. Definitely not at nrnb prices!
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i agree and it has been for quite a few years
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Not sharing, Eric?
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Nothing original near the top of the market :)
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Looks like Brighterdaysahead will run in mares hurdle on Sunday. Could be a cracker of a race if all principles stand their ground.
Should get a good pointer if my Mares Cheltenham bet which is getting bigger and bigger is a goer or not. |
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Brighterdaysahead very impressive today. Maxed out my bets with Betfair and Skybets at 10/1 for mares. Can’t see it going anywhere else at this stage.
Only 325 days to wait |
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Had a few bets for 25 week after fezzie,,,been very quiet since ,,itching to get involved but your right ,,no juice in the prices,,,Bookies suffering big time .Sad places these days was in yesterday morning for 1/2 hour…must of been 30 races on from all round the world,,virtual going off left right and centre ,,bingo lotto,,machines …no winder racing going to the **** house
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Anyway I half like Majborough …Browns the preferable ?
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Do you think Mullins will pitch a 5 year old in the Brown's?
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Starting to look at certain races to see if any value. Firefox looks a potential Arkle horse but with Ballyburn’s target unknown 8/1 not really that tempting. Richi told everyone at Sun’s Cheltenham preview in March that Lossiemouth would definitely run in Champion Hurdle next year (win or lose 2024 Mares Hurdle) so no reason to think that is incorrect. With Jade De Grugy apparently going chasing now I still think Brighterdaysahead could still go Mares grade1 over Mares Chase grade2. Surely must be a conversation as other Mares will switch from Turners or whatever called now to the Chase. I think it’s madness going chasing with Grade 1 hurdle at your mercy if others go elsewhere?
Like the look of Let it rain of Skeltons in Mares Novice. 14/1 and Majborough in RSA also at 14/1. Will start making few bets in next week. |
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The news I was waiting for. The dream is still there
Brighterdaysahead will stay over hurdles for another season as connections have decided to aim her at the Mares' Hurdle at the 2025 Cheltenham Festival rather than send her chasing at the age of five, while Gordon Elliott has also revealed that Champion Hurdle runner-up Irish Point will miss the entire season with a setback. Speaking during the summer, Gigginstown racing manager Eddie O'Leary said Brighterdaysahead would be going straight over fences this term, but there has been a rethink in the camp and she will instead remain over hurdles with her reappearance set to come in the Grade 3 Bottlegreen Hurdle on Friday week, a race won 12 months ago by Irish Point. Elliott told the Racing Post: "We were originally going to go over fences with Brighterdaysahead, but we've had a few discussions over the last few weeks and the fact that she is only five means we have decided to stay over hurdles this season. "We think she's a very talented mare and she's still very young. There will be plenty of time to go chasing with her." He added: "She will start off in the Grade 3 hurdle at Down Royal and her ultimate aim will be the Mares' Hurdle at Cheltenham in March. She looks terrific and she's strengthened up a lot over the summer. Jack [Kennedy] sat on her the other day and he was over the moon with her." |
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Who said antepost betting is dead
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Who said antepost betting is dead
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Couple of interesting runners over last couple of days. Yesterday, Inthepocket jumped impeccably and routed the field at Wexford. A very promising novice hurdler he was always touted as a chaser and didn’t disappoint. 10/1 might seem short in October but he was so impressive that he could be the main threat to Ballyburn even now.
Today at Chepstow there were 2 interesting winners of the 2 1/2 mile novice hurdles. Nicholls won with Quebecois who pulled away to win very easily in the second division. He is going to the Challow hurdle next. However, Skeltons runner The new lion devastating performance blew me away. Jumped really well and travelled like a dream. He looked a potential superstar and if you didn’t see it I’d strongly recommend watching a replay. He is also going to the Challow and think he will be a short price fav unless something does a similar performance. He was 40/1 for Ballymore after he finished the race and quickly became 25/1. There are worse bets out there and if he was trained by Mullins after that performance would be half those odds. Current Antepost horses Mares hurdle - Brighterdaysahead 10/1 ( plus exchange 12/1 - 32/1) Arkle - inthepocket 10/1 Ballymore - The new lion 40/1 |
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Marine National Could shorten today IF he runs like they hope for Queen Mum…hoping for a big run,,,tho I bet Irish Point for long distance hurdle…
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Can’t see him competing after that run today. Even first time up they must very disappointed.
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Can’t see him competing after that run today. Even first time up they must very disappointed.
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I hear ya,,I’m cursed this year ,,,6 Ap bets all going tits up..Connell said he was happy with the run ,,,Xmas then queen mum he said,,,But yeah if next time he not massive improvement he won’t be going …Think I will hold fire for a while on any more …Majborough 16/1 ,Gerri Colombo 25/1 only 2 onside ,
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Brighterdaysahead was incredibly brave to battle back after being headed over the last. She is truly top class and I’m glad Elliott has basically said she is going Mares hurdle. Only way she goes Champion is if comes up soft or some of the rivals drop out. Mop up mares this year and then can go Novice chasing or champion hurdle following year.
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I’ll be happy to eat my words if March turns out well lol
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Well done Eric, guess you went in on Lossie.
That result obviously cemented which race she is running in and should make Elliott’s mind up for Brighterdaysahead. I’m keeping my Brighterdays champion bets in place in case something happens to Lossie but should be full steam ahead now. 95% of my bets are on Brighterdays and ew on some novices at big odds (Potters charm, New Lion) The other race I’m quite interested in is taking on Ballyburn in Arkle. Obviously wanted to go 2.5 miles but did he really look a slick 2 mile chaser on debut ? Winning on the bridle over 2m3f in egg and spoon race looked impressive but didn’t blow me away like GDC or Gaelic Warrior in recent years. 7/4 is an awful price when he isn’t even 100% to go there. I’ve gone with Inthepocket and topped up at 10/1ew. I’m considering I’eau de Sud as another one to pitch in with to have at least two horses to go to war with. I’ve started backing Ballyburn for Brown Adv and will continue till he runs next time. Mullins is quite pragmatic and really can’t see the point in putting the horse under pressure when he can stroll around (safely as well) and bolt in over 3 miles. Who will be the treat in that race ?? |
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40/1 NewLion and 6/1 - 10/1 Ballyburn RSA improving Antepost position. 22/1 Potters charm pretty good back up.
Waiting for NRNB now before do anything else. |
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Looking good there Hibore it’s going to be an interesting 10 weeks of prep runs before then affecting markets.
This looks a really exciting Festival coming up even compared to last year. Just have one position to place now. The one that got away and i know i should have backed is Sir Gino but it will be good to watch love the Arkle had some great results in it over the years. |
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Cheers Eric. To be honest never been in position like this at start of year. I’ve laid off 33% of BDA in Mares and 20% Champion Hurdle which has paid for accommodation and members seat tickets for Cheltenham. Had to do it as one of the bets is worthless and leaving that on the table isn’t sensible.
Cashed in L’Eau Du Sud bet and reset with WH NRNB 10/1 ew. Think that is acceptable price. Sir Geno looks bomb proof but you never know. Also have the Inthepocket bet at 10/1 and Sunday will see if that needs binning or not. Have multiple bets on Ballyburn Brown Advisory which could work out a good plan if things go as I hope and he runs 2.5 miles next. Can’t see him running in stayers so only one option  New Lion and Potters charm are going straight to Cheltenham so prices will only move when something wins in Ireland from bigger yards over next few weeks. Horses need 2 runs. 20/1 ew Grey Dawning for Ryanair and 33/1 ew Langer Dan Stayers. Neither did much over Xmas but hopefully will freshen up by March. I’m looking at 2.5 Jack Richard’s handicap Chase earlier and thought Johnnywho might be a candidate..but he ran a stinker at Ascot. Think he’s got the ability and 3 miles stretches him it seems. 12/1 WH is too short but anything around 20/1 I’d take. Anyone see any value out there. Getting harder now. |
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It looks like you have a really good spread of bets on to cover the meeting so you will get great entertainment throughout the week while there.
Best of luck with those i am sure you will connect with some. I am concentrating on less races this year than in recent years so going to be a few races of interest, need to make them count. |
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Fair price GB to have 10 or more winners
TIA Ronnie. |
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Hi Ronnie, where did you see the prices ? I’d be all over 10+
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