Cheltenham Festival
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running plans still up in the air and the irish look way ahead and facile vega appeals, form there for all to see and the trip could well bring out improvement and now a decent price around 8/1 nrnb , could go arkle but looks as tho further will suit . 2nd in the supreme and lots of back form .
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this will cut up with a fair few going elsewhere fact or file,found a fifty il et temps could all go elsewhere at the fest just think 8/1 nrnb looks very fair imo.
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What we have seen this season, I think Ginnys Destiny deserves to be favourite.
Recent history tells us the Irish novices are normally better, but nothing really stands out to me. Fact To File has a big reputation but got beat first time out, won a nothing race on 2nd start and won last time in what turned out to be a walk over. Facile Vega looks like a step up will suit, but Mullins looks convinced he is a 2 miler. He jumps slowly so may struggle in both the Arkle and Turners. |
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I think the biggest danger to Fact To File is him not running.
Ginny's Destiny has very much had the run of things on the front end, and was fortunate to beat Grey Dawning. It's likely a poor renewal, but I still don't see him having enough class. |
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Apparently Fact ran a very good time at Leop., even though it was a match and even though he was heavily eased. I think it's very hard to take a view of the Turners until we know whether he runs there or the RSA.
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His time was good, but happy to ignore that when he was not in a race and pretty much a solo.
I do not doubt he could be good, but he is priced up on the chat from Mullins and not what he has done on the race course. |
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Yes, that's fair Brandy, but it's not unusual for a horse to be priced on potential (especially in novice races, but even in gold cups). He looks the real deal to me, but I've been wrong before.
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Brandy if someone ran 100 meters on his own in less than 10 seconds easing down would you say you can ignore that as it was a solo.
The nothing race @ xmas he beat Zanahiyr 17 lengths who had run 3rd in last 2 champion hurdles & made Bob OLINGER PULL OUT ALL THE STOPS EARLIER IN THE SEASON. @ drf He ran the last circuit to the last faster than El Fabiolo before being eased to a trot over the line. I think hes the real deal. What i dont like is the prospect of him being pushed to the Brown Advisory because connections have other options(but not as good). I m a great believer they should do whats right by the horse and hes already demonstrated hes got plenty of speed . What he hasnt demonstrated (yet) is his stamina and the Brown Advisory is the wrong option to find out imo. |
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That's a fair point, Geoff.
But I, and I am sure many others, have seen many good performances on the clock when a horse has had a solo. I don't doubt that Fact To File could be top class, but 6/4 makes little appeal to me when I have seen this 'time' scenario so many times. Before last seasons festival, Davy Russell said he was riding Zanahiyr to pick up the pieces in the Champion Hurdle. I would not have him as the 3rd best horse in that race. |
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I would agree with that assertion re Zanahiyr Brandy, but by the same token yer cant dismiss Fact To File on the basis it was a nothing race. He demolished him by 17 lengths.
Zanahiyr still ran 3rd to Constituiton Hill @ Aintree and as stated earlier bustled up a rejuvenated Bob Olinger (over bobs best trip) earlier in the season. All about opinions but makes an interesting discussion. I will still keep nibbling @ Fact To File for Turners here @ 9s. The market and vibes was Gaelic was running in the Irish Arkle but didnt. |
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Be a brave man to bet against the market at this point imo - Theu usually know. GL though.
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I think he will run in the Brown Advisory and think he'd win either race as I am not bothered about his stamina, just watch his last run and run the later handicap alongside it where the 136 horse carried 23lbs less just so you can get the real feel of how impressive the earlier race was
The whole race, the final circuit, at all points, they were comfortably in front only from the last when he was heavily eased did they catch up. From the start of the final circuit, after they'd gone half a mile or so versus El Fabiolo they were ahead to the 2nd last and level to the final fence. He looks as if the step up in trip will suit him even better although that said you'd probably want to be with him in an Arkle too!! The sky is the limit for this horse. |
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If we take the last run from Fact To File literally then surely the Turners would be the logical race for him.
But we know Mullins has to juggle horses around to try and be as competitive as possible in every race. He could step Facile Vega up to the Turners? If he doesn't then he needs to keep Fact To File to the intermediate trip. But then who does he have for the 3 miler? |
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I think Facile Vega would suit the Turners although a stiff test which he's never had over 2 miles would see him in a better light also, however, if GW is to run at the festival I think he can only run in the Arkle for fear of blowing his head off and tiring over the longer trip, the old course might not suit as well but the shorter trip will help, his jumping out to the right gets worse the more tired he gets so they could just let him go and y and burn them all off over the 2 miles. FTF looks like he'll make way and step up in trip to 3 miles IMO.
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If I was Mr mullins' I'd save GW for Aintree and/or Punchestown. GW will not be rewarded with a win at Cheltenham regardless of distance - the track does not suit him. It's a hindrance. I firmly believe he'd be run out of his feet over 2m, and more likely to make mistakes too. He threw away a big handicap hurdle race at the Cheltenham Festival jumping to his right over 3m; 12f is unlikely either.
Any effort by GW at Cheltenham is unlikely to generate a win despite his effort, I think. |
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Oh dear
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Aye ... Some amazing insight at times,exactly what we look for this far out.
IMP ... Have you thought of a career in racing,you appear to have many of the attributes required in abundance. You would make a perfect Clerk Of The Course in my opinion,leaving no stone unturned. |
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'nocturnal', dealing with humans is challenging at times; training horses and dealing with staff is way beyond me - too many imponderables to get right most of the time. Also, I do not have the patience. I know my limits.
GW was slick and won well on a right-handed track, but left-handed he's a liability for punting. The X'mas King George at Kempton is right up his street. Imagine Gaelic Warrior, Shishkin (if unsuccessful at Cheltenham) and Il Est Francais turning up. It could be one of the best King George's ever if everyone arrives there having won at Aintree, Punchestown and France. winning. |
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impossible 123
What a 2 bob flimper you are. You recommend double odds boosts to a £5 max….fine, you might win an extra bag of sweets. Worst of all you (after being told repeatedly) Gaelic Warrior who cannot go LEFT HANDED maybe better suited to Aintree which is a far tighter left handed track than Cheltenham. I’m cutting you loose hear…. but do your fracking homework before spouting nonsense. |
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Sorry, Aintree slipped my mind as a left-handed track. I had Ascot/Kempton in mind, and Punchestown; Gaelic Warrior was 2nd fav for the King George at X'mas prior to his dismal run at Leopardstown.
£5 max on double-odds at 9/1 for consecutive weeks could add-up to something rewarding come event time eg Guineas/Derby/Oaks/National. This is another way one is less likely to be flagged up. However, repeatedly gaining advantage over sp on a regular basis is bound to attract the attention. Horseracing is a recreational sport. I'd take it or leave it. As such, I play bookies at their own game. Otherwise, will give the game up totally. There are so many alternatives such commodity/equity, etc. |
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With Fact To File confirmed for the Brown's today, who will be the Mullins representative here?
Will he step Facile Vega up in trip or rely on Gaelic Warrior? |
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i dont think willie would like to put Gaelic warrior
in this race Patrick might, so would Davy but it ges to the bottom of horses like Champ |
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Champ never ran in it.
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Looks like Facile Vega has been rerouted here. The market is indicating so; the horse is friendless in The Arkle. Similarly, Gaelic Warrior here.
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Facile Vega seems Turners bound….anyone think American Mike got a chance if running? Don’t fancy any of the top5 on the exchange much,,,
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I think American Mike is one of those horses best suited from a punting point of view of waiting to see how he is in running before backing him, he has lots of talent and is probably capable of winning plenty but it's just a case of whether he's on a going day or not
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I'll opt for Facile Vega over Gaelic Warrior, if both turn up. The latter's been backed, but the course could be his downfall. He threw away a valuable handicap because of it.
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Was this h'cap the boodles worth £45,000 not all festival races are valuable.
Same horse won €88,500 at last years DRF in a h'cap going the same way round. Of the 2 horse's you mentioned I couldn't have either of them for any of those 2 races |
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American Mike to be supplemented for the Browns
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Is this a fact, Brandy?
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American Mike is set to be supplemented for the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase, while My Trump Card could outrun his odds in the Albert Bartlett. There are fascinating handicappers, too, the likes of Ndawwi and Wodhooh in the Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle, The Goffer in the Ultima, Cleatus Poolaw in the Pertemps Final, and Pied Piper will be back to try to call the tune in the County Hurdle under claimer Danny Gilligan, having gone so close last year.
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Danny might be on holiday
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