Cheltenham Festival

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16 Nov 22 02:33
Date Joined: 02 Sep 14
| Topic/replies: 1,102 | Blogger: Paterson92's blog
At the current time of writing, GDC is a best priced 3/1 for the Gold Cup and 7/1 best price for the Ryanair.

It was a similar scenario this time last year when he was a far shorter price for the Brown Advisory (3m) than he was for the Turners (2m5f) where he of course ended up running in the latter. There seemed to be an assumption he would be a 3 mile chaser simply because he was upped to 3 miles over hurdles at Punchestown at the end of the previous season. However, that remains his only run over 3 miles to date. Which makes me think, is he priced solely on the basis that “Allaho will definitely be going for the Ryanair again, so GDC must be their Gold Cup horse”? Or is it because Mullins himself said in his stable tours that he’s a Gold Cup horse. I mean you surely can’t get any more concrete evidence in relation to a horses Cheltenham target than it coming from Mr Mullins himself ….

Whilst on the subject of Allaho and Mr Mullins, we’ve went from Allaho being an intended runner in the King George (dependant on him running in the Clonmel Oil or John Durkan beforehand), to now having a setback which has ruled him out of all engagements this side of Hogmanay. Now it’s touch and go if they can get a run into him before Cheltenham or not, but “shouldn’t matter because he goes well fresh” …. call me cynical but I’ll believe it when I see it.

GDC made his seasonal reappearance last year over the festive period before having one more run at the Dublin Racing Festival prior to running in the Turners at Cheltenham. As it’s mid November, it’s looking likely he will follow a similar path to Cheltenham this season, albeit in open company this time round. So, given this fact …

1) he’s 3/1 fav for the Gold Cup based on the assumption all is well with Allaho.
2) if Allaho wasn’t in the betting, Galopin would be no bigger than 6/4 for it right now.
3) we are to assume Mullins will throw a relatively inexperienced/lightly raced horse such as GDC into a Gold Cup despite the fact he will likely only have 2 runs prior to Cheltenham.
4) as it stands the horse has ran over 3 miles once in its life and that was over hurdles in April 2021
5) we’ve no clue if his first run of this season will even be over 3m.
6) Mullins has a habit of targeting the “easier” or “winnable” race when it comes to Cheltenham.

In the last 10 years, 7 of Mullins “Turners Novice Chase” runners ran in the following years Gold Cup and 4 ran in the following years Ryanair:

2021 - Asterion Forlonge (Gold Cup)
2021 - Blackbow (N/A)
2020 - Melon (Ryanair)
2020 - Faugheen (N/A)
2020 - Tornado Flyer (N/A)
2020 - Bapaume (N/A)
2019 - Real Steel (Gold Cup)
2019 - Pravalaguna (N/A)
2019 - Voix Du Reve (N/A)
2018 - Kemboy (Gold Cup)
2018 - Invitation Only (Gold Cup)
2017 - Yorkhill (Champion Hurdle)
2016 - Black Hercules (N/A)
2016 - Outlander (Gold Cup)
2015 - Vautour (Ryanair)
2015 - Valseur Lido (Ryanair)
2014 - Felix Yonger (N/A)
2014 - Mozoltov (N/A)
2014 - Djakadam (Gold Cup)
2013 - Aupcharlie (N/A)
2013 - Marito (N/A)
2012 - Sir Des Champs (Gold Cup)
2011 - Blazing Tempo (Ryanair)

All things considered and in my opinion, there are far worse ante post bets than GDC for the Ryanair at 7/1 - especially when he’s as short as 3/1 with some firms for the race and a general 5/1.
Pause Switch to Standard View Galopin Des Champs 7/1 Ryanair Chase
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Report 04arsenalfc. November 16, 2022 1:46 PM GMT
Completely agree with Allaho the vibes would put me off massively - to be backing a horse at 13/8 ante post I'd be expecting it to be pretty much certain to turn up and based on the last few weeks I certainly dont think that's the case. Going to Cheltenham without a run as well wouldn't fill me with confidence if he was to turn up.
Report Paterson92 November 16, 2022 3:45 PM GMT
Couldn’t help but notice Paddy/BF have pushed Allaho out to 7/4 overnight and have cut Galopin from 7’s to 5’s simultaneously. Only 365 have GDC at 7’s now - I’ve had a few quid on anyway and will see how it plays out over the coming months.
Report impossible123 November 16, 2022 4:18 PM GMT
I think Galopin Des Champs (GDC) could run in The Ryanair (only) if Allaho deputises for A Plus Tard in the Gold Cup, and GDC has have mishaps in his jumping this season.

But, with any of Mr Mullins antepost is often a graveyard bet given history.
Report Paterson92 November 16, 2022 6:20 PM GMT
That is definitely another possibility/scenario but I personally don’t see Allaho running in the Gold Cup under any circumstance this season. Even if APT missed Cheltenham for any reason, I still don’t see them rolling the dice with Allaho. They’ll want to go for 3 in a row in the Ryanair. Being another year older and wiser he may have a better chance of staying the Gold Cup trip but I doubt it and I think they do as well.

I just have a gut instinct they’re downplaying Allaho’s “setback” and wouldn’t be entirely shocked if we didn’t see him at all this season after they keep us guessing for months. If that’s the case, I’m fairly certain they’ll take the easier Ryanair option with Galopin Des Champs rather than rolling the dice for the Gold Cup.
Report Paterson92 November 18, 2022 3:48 PM GMT
Has been heavily backed for the King George today by the looks of things … interesting.
Report irishone November 19, 2022 7:07 AM GMT
Its a bit too early in the season to be making a case for anything being in a race at Cheltenham. If you lived with race horses you would know what they are like. Most who come on here have no clue.

Of course Trainers target Cheltenham races but over 75% of the time they miss their targets.

Half of what they say about horses turns out to be untrue ...just read their quotes after they win earlier in the season ...and over 90% of those that do make their targets dont win anyway good luck with that.
Report irishone November 19, 2022 7:08 AM GMT
As for Allaho in the gold cup .....dream on
Report impossible123 December 3, 2022 6:16 PM GMT
Shishkin could be this way bound after the drubbing over 2m or Gold Cup. But no supplementation for the King George though.

From 2m straight to 3m 2f? Leave it out Hendo. Maybe consider retirement after such an illustrious career over 2m hurdles and chases.
Report Bentring December 4, 2022 8:27 AM GMT
Retirement would be kinder I think he's gone at that top level and something is bothering him possibly the hard race in ascot or something they can't find
Report Paterson92 December 6, 2022 2:21 PM GMT
Galopin Des Champs 1 of 8 entered in the John Durkan over 2m4f on Sunday.

Previous winners:

2021 - Allaho
2020 - Min
2019 - Min
2018 - Min

Allaho and Min both went on to run in the Ryanair at Cheltenham …
Report layingisthewayforward December 8, 2022 10:48 PM GMT
I think it's a fair shout. Not sure they'll go the gold cup route this year and if they do turn up here instead he'll be favourite imo.
Report Paterson92 December 11, 2022 2:52 PM GMT
Richard Thompson talking to Nick Luck about Allaho:

"We're still hopeful that he'll be back before Cheltenham, maybe a prep run in February. We're still very much hopeful that he's coming back but you know with these things, you've got to be realistic. It's probably 50-50."

I can’t help but feel Allaho won’t be seen this season and Galopin will go for the easier race … 7/1 still around for the Ryanair.
Report Hibore December 11, 2022 11:11 PM GMT
I find it hard to see an angle that GDC doesn’t run the Gold Cup. If he runs over 2.4 and wins it proves his well-being…if he gets beat they go up in trip. He’s always been touted as a stayer and his easy 3mile hurdle win over Statler doesn’t prove his stamina but is another tick in the box.
The only scenario that might make him swerve the race would be APT coming back to form and blitzing his field in his next race. Otherwise why let L’presse or Protectorat win when they are inferior to you ? It could be a poor Gold Cup…..
Report Paterson92 December 13, 2022 9:56 AM GMT
Surely there’s far more angles to say that he doesn’t run in the Gold Cup?

I don’t know the stats but certainty from a Willie Mullins perspective, there can’t be many of his second season novices who won’t have ran in a 3m chase when their intended target being the Gold Cup is just 3 months away and only one run over 3m previously, with that being over hurdles.

The John Durkan (2m4) has been rescheduled for December 19th and that’s where he’s going according to the trainer (assuming the meeting survives the cold snap). Assuming it does go ahead, it’s highly unlikely he will be seen again until the Dublin Racing Festival at the start of February in which case his only option there would be the 3m Irish Gold Cup.

In my opinion, unless he goes there and wins - that’s the only scenario I can see where he does run in the Gold Cup.

This all has a similar feel to last season when all the stable tours and trainer quotes were pointing towards the Brown Advisory (bookmakers prices especially). Only this time round, the reason he is as short is due to the fact APT ran a stinker at Haydock. I don’t rate the likes of Protektorat and L’Homme Presse all that highly but at least they’re battle hardened 3m+ chasers and shouldn’t be underestimated.

There will also be an element of the trainer feeling as if there is an element of unfinished business at Cheltenham with GDC in terms of a Grade 1 after what happened this year. The reality is, with or without Allaho, Mullins will know where he stands with GDC as that rates his only danger in the Ryanair and over a trip he has stuck to for 90% of his career so far ….
Report Hibore December 13, 2022 11:33 AM GMT
I hope you are right Paterson as I’m on APT for Gold Cup. I backed him again last night at the 10/1 available with B656 which I’m hoping looks huge when/if he runs better in the Irish Gold Cup.

I thought GDC would swerve the DRF but listening to Willie this morning he will run in John Durkan or Tramore over 2m 6f and then Irish Gold Cup over 3m. If he was beaten at DRF then I agree 100% they will consider the Ryanair if Allaho is still injured. Definitely can see them take each other on.

Unfortunately I think that schedule sounds very much Gold Cup is the plan currently rather than Ryanair but the Irish Gold Cup could change everything if he turns up and gets beat.

Interesting Happy
Report Paterson92 December 13, 2022 3:54 PM GMT
I see Paddy/Betfair have pushed Allaho out slightly again to 2/1 for the Ryanair … has Ruby been opening his mouth again :)
Report brandyontherocks December 14, 2022 12:05 AM GMT
Hib, I think the plan for A Plus Tard is the Lexus at Cheltenham  (if he is fully recovered) then straight to Cheltenham as before.

With regards to Galopin Des Champs his target will definitely be the Gold Cup.

Willie, like most trainers now, will only run his best horses a couple of times before Cheltenham. Leaving them fresh for the two spring festivals.
He will run over 3 miles at the Dublin Racing Festival.

If he still runs and jumps aggressively and fails to see the trip out, that is the only scenario I can see where he might end up in the Ryanair.
Report brandyontherocks December 14, 2022 12:10 AM GMT
After all, the only reason he went the Turners route last season was because of his running/jumping style in his first two novice chases.

He may relax more now he is a year older.

If not, then I agree,  7/1 is huge.
Report Bentring December 14, 2022 4:54 PM GMT
Obviously you mean cheltenham and punchestown festivals
Report brandyontherocks December 14, 2022 9:56 PM GMT
Of course.

That is what Willie targets.

Hen Knight was hounded for wrapping Best Mate up in cotton wool years ago. But that is the normal now.
Trainers target the Spring Festivals as that is all that matters now.

Strange how Henderson seems to be the one everyone has a go at but Mullins seems to escape all the abusive comments.

Look at all his top horses, they only have two runs prior to Cheltenham but nobody dares to question his planning.
Report impossible123 December 17, 2022 4:51 PM GMT
Mr Mullins is so predictable (from history) with his star charges that punters have taken it as a given thus no further comments were not needed. And, most do not care either until Cheltenham.
Report Hibore December 19, 2022 2:38 PM GMT
Mullins confirmed Gold Cup as target after JD win.
Report Paterson92 December 19, 2022 4:11 PM GMT
Surely we all know by now nothing is ever as clear cut as W P Mullins opening his mouth when it comes to his horses targets in March. I certainly hope for the sake of racing he truly is Gold Cup bound, but a lot of water under the bridge before then …
Report impossible123 December 19, 2022 5:05 PM GMT
I think this is still a possibility if Allaho is an absentee, and A Plus Tard wins convincingly next time; the latter's win last March was a phenomenon.

Another Native River vs Might Bite spectacle? Let's hope so.
Report irishone December 19, 2022 5:46 PM GMT
"but alot of water under the bridge before then"

so is 7\1 such a good price.....?
Report Paterson92 December 19, 2022 6:31 PM GMT
For what it’s worth, yes I do. I’ve justified my reasoning/angle and although many will disagree (even more so after his impressive performance today), I still believe it’s value. He’s 7/1 for a race where he would be odds on to win if it was run in 3 weeks time instead of 3 months time.

That aside, the Ryanair is the same distance where (bar a last fence unseat/fall) the horse would have a 100% festival record to this point.

After today, his 5 starts over fences have never been a yard further than 2m5f in distance. All last season his supposed plan was to be upped in trip but that didn’t turn out to be the case and here we are again the following season.

He’s now a 2/1 shot for a 3m2f Gold Cup (market EXPECTATION that he will be upped in trip next time out). Whereas he is 7/1 for a 2m5f Ryanair where he is 5/5 at that distance over fences (again, market EXPECTATION that he will be upped in trip next time out).

The horse will only be a 7 year old in March. It’s not entirely farfetched to think they might not go for the big one in March and wait for the following year as an 8 year old … and no, I won’t get into “rolling the dice” and “might not get there” debate. It’s an entirely different argument and for all anyone knows he might not make it this March never mind in 2024. I’m simply saying they’ll send the horse to the race where they believe it has the best possible chance of winning.
Report irishone December 19, 2022 10:39 PM GMT
fact is patterson....we are guessing.... and at this stage even Willie doesnt know ...there are too many variables to justify 7\1 imvho but hey ho good luck to you and you deserve it for coming on here and explaining why you bet it.
Report duffy December 21, 2022 4:44 PM GMT
I don't see how Mullins would even consider the Ryanair, Allaho or no Allaho, he has the fav for the Blue Riband event, but we are being asked to consider if he might step in as a substitute in a lesser race.

I understand the thinking that he has been partial to an easier target but in those instances many would be when there was a real concern with the better race, would Vautour stay, was Quevega good enough etc. When talking to Nick Luck he appeared utterly convinced that the trip will be no concerns saying that he has never had any concerns citing his 3 mile win as a hurdler.

The other noticeable thing from the other day was how settled he was through the race, which is obviously very encouraging.

Isn't the GC looking weaker as we go, the title holder appears under a cloud at the very least, the king of the north Ahoy Senor can't jump, BMG really does have a trip concern as does Protektorat, certainly if it were an end to end gallop and the two coming from left field are coming out of handicap company. L'homme Presse is a big challenger I think at the moment but I certainly think GDC is the most likely winner if his price is a bit on the short side now.
Report irishone December 21, 2022 7:44 PM GMT
You missed sharks
Report duffy December 22, 2022 2:44 AM GMT
and the two coming from left field are coming out of handicap company

Noble **** and Hewick were the two I was referring to....Noble **** win last time just looked plain weirdConfused
Report duffy December 22, 2022 2:45 AM GMT
Report duffy December 22, 2022 2:45 AM GMT
Y E A T S Laugh
Report PeteTheBloke December 22, 2022 2:38 PM GMT
Yeah, they always star out Y e a t s.
It's must be because William Butler of that ilk was an early supporter of Ezra P o u n d, a known anti-semite.

That's how sensitive the BF censors are about early 20th century poetry.
Report duffy December 22, 2022 4:39 PM GMT
It's because Dave y a t e s complained about usGrin
Report PeteTheBloke December 23, 2022 10:27 AM GMT
Report FOYLESWAR December 24, 2022 5:06 PM GMT
**** seems a no no but try yates
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