Cheltenham Festival

Welcome to Live View – Take the tour to learn more
Start Tour
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
19 Mar 22 03:47
Date Joined: 16 Feb 03
| Topic/replies: 27,287 | Blogger: unclepuncle's blog
Well another year over and if you, unlike me, like backing the shorties you should have had a very decent meeting.
I'm sure there were plenty of decent antepost and week of meeting accas up, though equally many of those will have been busted by Shiskins flop and the last fence fall of Galopin Des Champs (though plenty will have been on Bob Olinger as well).

Time to dust myself down and look ahead to next year.

Novice Hurdlers
As ever the obvious place to start is the Bumper and despite the appalling conditions (surely if it had been any other meeting there card would have been cancelled) the actual race panned out much as the market had been predicting for months with Facile Vega winning impressively from American Mike with a couple more once raced Mullins horses in behind.
As ever it is impossible to know what race Mullins will choose (Sir Gerhard who won it last year eventually went for the Ballymore at the 11th hour) but at this stage I have to assume the Supreme will be the target for Facile Vega and the 4/1 looks worth throwing into some long range multiples.
American Mike was a 3m point winner so maybe they will aim at the Ballymore, the 10/1 is sensible enough. The third  James Gate is another who will presumably be aimed there and 20/1 is again fair enough.

Novice Chasers

The Arkle market is very confusing with the likes of Constitution Hill, Sir Gerhard and Vauban all being touted as potential Champion Hurdle horses.
If he goes chasing then Sir Gerhard will be the one to beat, but as ever with Mullins which race? Appreciate It was very disappointing on his comeback, even if it was in a Champion Hurdle, and maybe Jonbon at 14/1 is the most logical for the Arkle at this stage.
Already a point winner and a lovely big rangy horse (as he should be given his auction price). Seems to show plenty of pace and Nicky Henderson usually aims his good horses here so so I'd hope the Arkle would be the aim rather than the Browns Advisory but always a gamble.

I also thought Fil Dor who was second in the Triumph might make a chaser, Wells Chief was second in a Triumph before becoming a top 2m chaser, and State Man is another contender but can't seem to find any prices on them.

As ever working out what horses will run in the Browns Advisory and which the Turners is anyones guess so from an Antepost point of view it is very risky.

Champion Hurdle

An awesome performance by Constitution Hill and it looks like the owner is keen to stay over hurdles. Would certainly favour him over the reigning champion Honeysuckle, they may even meet at Punchestown, but at around 2/1 I can easily resist.
Vauban and Sir Gerhard also possible players but not enough juice in their prices at this stage.
If he was mine I would give up on chasing with Bob Olinger but whether he would be good enough here is another matter.

Stayers Hurdle
A terrific performance by Flooring Porter to regain his crown, and multiple winners are a regular feature of this race. Danny Mullins rode his rivals to sleep from the front and surely next year somebody will put in a spoiler or two.
Always one to go to the well too many times I have to give my cliff horse Thyme Hill another chance at 20/1.Laugh

Champion Chase
I stated in last years thread that I felt Shiskin was vulnerable and so it proved, even if the ground, or something more heinous, was to blameConfused. I'll finally give up on Chacun Por Soi who will be 11 next year, but Enurgemene is clearly a beast, though soft ground was a big help to him. He's clearly the most likely winner and 3/1 is ok.
Edwardstone is very professional but just lacks that 'je ne said quo' and it was a weak Arkle he won.
Ferny Hollow is classy but too injury prone for antepost purposes and Galopin Des Champs is the potential fly in the ointment. Maybe he'll go Gold Cup, otherwise Mullins will have to choose between taking on Energumene here or Allaho in the Ryanair. Personally think the Ryanair is the right race for him, more of which below.

A comfortable repeat win for Allaho but not nearly as impressive as last year. Galopin Des Champ was going to hose up in the Turners and would be the likely winner if running here - as big as 6/1 available.
Shiskin maybe could come here but I'd want to see him prove he is still 100% after that last performance, and I expect they will still aim at the Champion. L'Homme Presse would be a great addition but the lure of the Gold Cup may be to much.

Gaillard Du Mesnil didn't get much attention after his 3rd in the Turners, but he was not beaten far by L'homme Presse (who was showered with praise), despite going wide all the way, being hampered by the fall of Farouk D'Alene at the second last and then a mistake at the last. He was actually closing at the line. Farouk D'Alene also went well until his fall and the intermediate trip looks ideal for him. No prices on these two but I may dabble at big prices if they are added nearer the start of next jumps season.

Gold Cup
A deadly performance by A Plus Tard and Rachel. Now they know how to ride him he looks a very worthy favourite and 5/1 seems very fair. The market is made by Galopin Des Champ but I can't have him as a Gold Cup horse at this stage, though don't put anything beyond Willie Mulllins. Also Mullins should have Monkfish back, though I've never been a massive fan. Having said that 16/1 is fair if you know he has recovered from the injury.
Protektorat ran well but can't see him reversing the form and Dan Skelton is not someone I rate at all so that leaves L'Homme Presse do carry the English flag into battle. He's a super horse and very uncomplicated but whether the extra 2f on a more galloping track  is in his favour is a question. 10/1 doesn't appeal to me. As mentioned above Gaillard Du Mesnil ran well behind him and has been forgotten about.
Pause Switch to Standard View Cheltnham 2023
Show More
Report duffy March 20, 2022 10:49 PM GMT
I must say I can't understand the Shishkin needs further narrative, where does it come from, we've seen no evidence of it, what happened at Cheltenham has no bearing at all on this theory, he won at 2 miles at Ascot despite a couple of mistakes and Cheltenham would suit him better, what happened last week was an abhoration but it does not bode the question about distance being an issue.

If he was beat fair and square with evidence put before us as to what should happen going forward then fair enough, 5/1 about him next year is what I would expect to see about him if he ran his race and was beaten fair and square, as it is it appears a big price and as  basically a price against his well being.

Energumene is much the same horse as we knew he was before, he had no pressure and simply had to jump round to collect, I do not see the division being much deeper than it was this year with perhaps Ferny Hollow coming into it, although on a line through River d'etel perhaps he is going to have to go up a couple of levels to compete at the top.

I'm prepared to trust that Shishkin that we all thought was a monster a week a go, still is and I've started backing him at 5's and am prepared to lose if he's not...price is just worth it.
Report penzance March 20, 2022 10:59 PM GMT
Shiskin's put 1 bad performance in 13 outings,if
you don't count the hurdle fall.
People are writing him off.
Report cobra sam March 21, 2022 5:49 AM GMT
done pretty good with my long range punts this time last year,,,so going in again...first lucky 15 and singles...Queen mum  Energumene...Champ hurdle Vauban....Stayers Buzz....Gold cup Monkfish,,,also any thoughts be appreciated anyone where Gaelic Warrior will be aimed next year
Report impossible123 March 21, 2022 7:54 AM GMT
Shishkin at 5/1 is an excellent price to trade from as his price will shrink before his next "proper" race unless he defects. I understand his pilot was still unsure whether it was merely the ground responsible for his flop at Cheltenham.

I do not think people are writing off Shishkin after one bad performance. I think it was a combination of the way he ran, and solely the "bad" ground responsible as stated categorically by Hendo.

Would I back him if odds-against eg 7/4 or more for the Celebration Chase against our British lot? Very possibly - out of loyalty and value, but no Champion Chase even at 5/1 presently for me.
Report Deptford March 21, 2022 8:56 AM GMT
Not one of the media gravy slurpers have asked Nicky what was wrong with the going when the horse has won on heavy, that horse never travelled at any stage
Report brandyontherocks March 21, 2022 9:02 AM GMT
I am definitely not writing him off. He hasn't suddenly become a bad horse I totally agree.
But for me you can't put that performance down to the ground. He was beat after 2 fences and has form on soft going.
At Ascot he ran like a horse who needed further personally. Energumene had him out of his comfort zone the whole way. Maybe that race took a lot more out of him than they thought.
His next race will tell us more for sure.
I hope he comes back as good as ever because we all want competition which so many of the grade 1 races last week lacked.
Report ImSoLuckyLucky! March 21, 2022 1:27 PM GMT
Tickets on sale
Sorry not a sale
£52 tatts
Report irishone March 21, 2022 4:37 PM GMT
Cheers uncle
Good luck
Report impossible123 March 21, 2022 6:39 PM GMT
I think if Shishkin bombs in the Celebration Chase at Sandown next month retirement could be imminent for him esp with Constitution Hill (CH) coming through the rank. But, I do hope Michael Buckley says no to his star going chasing next season.
Report strontium March 21, 2022 7:43 PM GMT
You think 8-year-old Shiskin, who was the highest rated chaser in training this time last week, is about to be retired?
Report PeteTheBloke March 21, 2022 8:10 PM GMT
BF have put 13 races up for 2023. It's like the old days.

Maybe they'll abolish PC next.
Report strontium March 21, 2022 8:16 PM GMT
Great! All the Grade 1s apart from the bumper. Now we dan get on with the business of guessing which races which Mullins horses will run in Plain
Report PeteTheBloke March 21, 2022 8:21 PM GMT
LOL - that's what it's all about.

Shall I ask them to put the same 13 races up NRNB? Just for a laff. I quite like the idea, but
their computer would have a meltdown trying to work out how to do partial settlements.
Report irishone March 22, 2022 9:35 AM GMT
An interesting point strontium ,i wonder who it was in the mullins team that suggested dysart would make the pace and kilcruit would come late and pick everything up ?

I also wonder if Willie heard about the improvement in CH and moved SG to avoid !
Report strontium March 22, 2022 10:11 AM GMT
I see Timform have rated CH 177p, which is the seventh highest rating they have ever given a hurdler, and the highest ever for a novice. (For context, their highest rated hurdler is Night Nurse on 182.)
Report brandyontherocks March 22, 2022 12:05 PM GMT
I was thinking the same regarding the Mullins trams riding plans for the Supreme.

When Dysart broke the tape causing the false start the horse looked wired. He was really buzzed up.
I don't think  they could have ridden him any different to be honest. And they certainly wouldn't have wanted to run Kilcruit up against him to make him go any faster.
It almost looked like the Henderson team sacrificed Jonbon and to not let Dysart have an easy time of it up front. I have marked Jonbon up on his performance for that reason.
Report strontium April 26, 2022 7:03 PM BST
The Brown Advisory (RSA) form is looking awfully good.
Report irishone April 29, 2022 5:23 AM BST
The RSA bottoms out too many
Report impossible123 October 6, 2022 9:16 PM BST
The key horses once again are Constitution Hill and A Plus Tard in the two Blue Riband races. I hope Shishkin can recover fully from last season's predicament and reclaim his crown in The Champion Chase. Anything more is a bonus.
Report irishone November 19, 2022 7:20 AM GMT
"Reclaim his crown" ?????
Report sageform November 19, 2022 9:52 AM GMT
Jonbon now looks the best 2 mile novice chaser and Thyme Hill was adequate over 3 miles. Does he have the class for the RSA though? still very early days but I suppose anyone backing Constitution Hill this morning will either be pleased or very disappointed by 2.45. A bit strange to be starting over 2 miles 3 furlongs though.
Report sageform November 19, 2022 2:35 PM GMT
Kilcruit entered the 2 mile chase lists today.
Report brandyontherocks November 20, 2022 10:23 PM GMT
Report irishone November 21, 2022 10:04 AM GMT
Perhaps its because someone has seen past Jonbon ?
Report sageform November 21, 2022 10:09 AM GMT
Because he showed that he jumps really well, and his hurdle form is top class. Jonbon beat him 2.5 lengths at Cheltenham in March. Jonbon is now 5/2 for the Arkle. Kilcruit is 65 on here. Is he being aimed at the longer novice chases?
Report brandyontherocks November 21, 2022 11:05 AM GMT
Sorry Sage.

My "why" was aimed at why you thought it strange Constitution Hill starting off over 2m 3f.

Kilcruit jumped very nicely I thought.
Looks like he will improve plenty for jumping and we know he has the ability.
Report sageform November 22, 2022 5:01 PM GMT
If Constitution Hill is a speedy CH horse and he was not 100% fit, why run over further than he has run over hurdles before? He did run in a ptp over 3 miles and was beaten.
Report impossible123 November 22, 2022 6:37 PM GMT
Ask Hendo. I'm sure he'll concoct a convincing reason for his action.
Report irishone November 22, 2022 8:09 PM GMT
That would explain why he pulled him sage.
19f for an unfit horse on softish ?
Yet nico let the cat out of the bag the day before
Why the wait ?
Poison Nicky untrustworthy AGAIN ....
Report sageform November 23, 2022 5:52 PM GMT
Perhaps he was afraid of Goshen?
Report impossible123 November 24, 2022 9:37 PM GMT
Hendo talks too much these days and mainly for the benefit of bookies.
Report sageform November 25, 2022 8:35 AM GMT
Nicky has always prioritised Cheltenham in March and if he has a candidate for one of the 4 Championship races, he plans that horse's career around that one day. Whether you agree with that strategy or not, that is what he does. If I was lucky enough to own one of those horses, I would choose a more pragmatic trainer who would aim to maximise the number of times that the horse ran and pick up some decent prizes along the way. Paul Nicholls was Champion trainer last season precisely because he ran his horses in and won races away from Cheltenham, particularly at Aintree. This year so far, Greanateen, Frodon, Bravemansgame, Hitman and Knappers Hill have all won valuable races. None of them might be quite good enough to win a Championship race. Contrast Shishkin, Constitution Hill, Epatante, who have not run yet. There is 5 months of the season left, admittedly including most of the high profile meetings but Nicky is already 10 lengths last of the possible Champion Trainer contenders, £700k behind Nicholls. The next 2 days should improve his position somewhat.
Report irishone November 25, 2022 5:50 PM GMT
He is the best the British have got.

He is a drama queen though. ...... and he aint as good as he thinks he is.
Report cobra sam November 26, 2022 12:51 PM GMT
And so the racist stuff starts already
Report impossible123 November 26, 2022 3:40 PM GMT
Beware what Hendo said about Shishkin for the Tingle Creek. Many similar statements for others eg Champ, Santini, Country House, etc - the horse did not show; a bookie's friend is always an anti-punter.
Report unclepuncle November 27, 2022 4:51 PM GMT
Well two months into the season and time for a quick recap.

Not much has happened in the Supreme market bar the expensive Henderson recruit jet Powered putting in a very nice debut at Newbury on Friday. Facile Vega yet to appear.

My Arkle analysis looks pretty inspired now with 14/1 on Jonbon and 33/1 (taken just last night) on Fil Dor.Grin
Banbridge was also impressive but maybe he'll step up in trip?

Constitution Hill looks nailed on for the Champion barring injury.

Onto Wednesday and the Ballymore is another race market that hasn't changed much but American Mike was very disappointing at Navan today and so Grangeclare West who won the novice hurdle on the same card for Mullins looks of interest.

Have no strong opinion on the RSA Chase (Brown Advisory) though I see Gaillard Du Mesnil is quoted which is interesting given he was placed in it last year. He is also hot favourite for the National Hunt Chase and I personally think he could be a live e/w player in the Gold Cup - no doubt Mullins will keep us all guessing.Cry

Champion Chase market is stagnant until Shiskin and Ferny Hollow show they are alive and well.

Looks like Sir Gerhard may be going chasing if the vibes from Ruby are correct. Obviously yet to jump a fence in public but 8/1 for the Turners is not bad given his bumper/hurdles form and connections.
Banbridge at 12/1 is the other interesting one if they aim here.

Ryanair is difficult with Allaho injured and apparently going straight there and Gallopin Du Champ allegedly being aimed at Gold Cup. I'd be tempted to play the latter now at 7/1+ as he could be odds on if he runs and Allaho doesn't.
Of the rest I have a soft spot for Asterion Forlange who has the natural ability and jumped ok in the Gold Cup. 33/1 might be worth a speculative saver in the hope the above two don't show up.

Stayers Hurdle looks very open with Flooring Porter getting beaten at Naas - thought he also got beat on seasonal debut last two years. Bob Olinger ran well in that same race but does he want 3m on the New Course?
Thyme Hill may go back to hurdles after jumping poorly in the novice chase at Newbury on Saturday, though I'd say his chance of winning a Stayers is probably gone. Champ and Paisley Park served up a great race in the Long Distance Hurdle at Newbury - but again they have had their chances and are surely slightly on the downgrade.
Blazing Khal is definitely interesting now he is definitely staying over hurdles, though it would be nice to see him on a. racecourse before taking the current prices. Was ell over him for the Potato race last year.Cry

There have been a couple of nice Juveniles out but plenty left to come and so no bet advised at this stage.

The Gold Cup picture was muddied by the appalling performance of A Plus Tard at Haydock. Edgy and mulish in the prelims and struggling almost from the off. Apparently no injury or virus found which does make one think!!Devil
Protektorat won the Betfair Chase well but the form is nothing to get too carried away with - very similar to when Lostintranslation won it.
L'Homme Presse won well under a big weight at Newcastle - needs rain if he is to go for the King George.
Report 04arsenalfc. November 29, 2022 1:22 PM GMT
Good post UP - WD on Jonbon I was to late and couldn't be backing anywhere near 5/2 at the minute until we see what the Irish have to offer however Jonbon's done nothing wrong so far. Fil Dor for me looked decent enough at the weekend I still feel as though he needs a step up in trip therefore cant see him competing in an Arkle. (Not a terrible E/W price mind he is as game as they come).

I'm also with you on Gaillard Du Mesnil - I honestly think the 4/1 currently within the NH chase is pretty poor as I think he's a questionable runner - I think he's better than that but Mullins usually sets on aside for Patrick. (I backed him pretty big last year E/W at Cheltenham and I like you say I doubt you'll know for sure until the week before the races he's running in) Took an age to confirm last year!
Report brandyontherocks November 29, 2022 5:15 PM GMT
Maybe Kilcruit for the amateur novice chase?
Report Bentring December 1, 2022 5:05 PM GMT
Wonder when Ruby will tip one in that show with Lydia?
Report Bentring December 1, 2022 5:06 PM GMT
By the way Brandy is spot onCool
Report irishone December 3, 2022 8:04 AM GMT
Really ?

He runs once jumps a clean round and thats enough for him to be the best novice chaser around.

Surely if he beat honeysuckle on times over the same distant on the same day on the same ground at cheltenham he is the best novice hurdler after CH as well....

Where would we be without hype ?
Report unclepuncle December 4, 2022 5:52 PM GMT
Interesting card at Fairyhouse today with effectively four Grade 1’s - why don’t we have similar cards in England.

Lossiemouth was very impressive in the Juvenile hurdle and after Vauban last year it’s hardly surprising he is already 3/1 jolly for March.
Having said that I have taken some 20/1 on Comfort Zone who finished a never nearer third. Was surprised they ran him just a week after he made an impressive debut and to me he looks like the more galloping left handed track at Cheltenham will really suit him.

The Royal Bond was won by Marine Nationale who got up in the last stride - reminds me a lot of Brave Inca. But I doubt Facile Vega supporters will have been too perturbed.

The Drinmore was won impressively by Mighty Potter with Gaillard Du Mesnil running well in second over an inadequate trip. Form looks strong with Banbridge well beaten in third. Might Potter was very disappointing at Cheltenham last year so I would be wary.
Still think GDM is an each player in the Gold Cup if they choose that route.

The Hattons Grace saw Honeysuckle beaten for the first time. No surprise to me but sadly I was all over Echoes In Rain who had just started to make her move when falling two out. No idea if she would have been involved in the photo finish but frustrating none the less. Hard to see any of them troubling Constitution Hill.
Vauban is the only credible rival but I wonder if we will see him this season.
Report duffy December 4, 2022 7:20 PM GMT
I'll be treating the Lossiemouth form as it stands with a deal of caution, they went very steady, miles behind the admittedly better grade 1 hurdlers and more experienced handicappers later in the card, the handicap was won in a similar time by a 123 horse carrying 10lbs more, what ever way you slice it its miles off the 150 he'd eventually have to get to to win a Triumph....obvious improvement likely of course.

Lossiemouth was a hype horse before today and that will just gather pace further now, consequently there is going to surely be value elsewhere to be had in the Triumph market through the season...just finding it being the problem.
Report brandyontherocks December 4, 2022 11:18 PM GMT
Report duffy December 5, 2022 4:32 AM GMT
Report unclepuncle December 5, 2022 6:05 AM GMT
Getting the fillies allowance will make her even harder to beat.Cry

However, interesting to read your analysis Duffy and it makes me even more keen to back Comfort Zone who, imo, would not have been suited by a crawl.
Report unclepuncle December 5, 2022 6:05 AM GMT
Getting the fillies allowance will make her even harder to beat.Cry

However, interesting to read your analysis Duffy and it makes me even more keen to back Comfort Zone who, imo, would not have been suited by a crawl.
Report irishone December 5, 2022 7:08 AM GMT
Honeysuckle wasnt 100% . Guarenteed .

Echoes target is the mares hurdle (14\1), she got up and finished o k. Between 3 out and 2 out she was on the bridle.
Report duffy December 5, 2022 4:06 PM GMT
That's the problem that point, turning in,  she's ALWAYS on the bridle.Grin

He still had her a bit too far back when she came down, doubtful she'd have been able to closed down that gap whilst still going easily...what would have happened then?? We'll have to wait a bit longer now to see if she is able to see her races out better.
Report penzance December 5, 2022 10:07 PM GMT
Honeysuckle & Epatante,Mares Hdle or the Chmpn?
5/1 & 9/2 for the Mares atm.
Report duffy December 6, 2022 4:04 PM GMT
They would retire Honeysuckle before they run her in the mares IMO, if she's gone shes gone, there would be no point in running her in the mares.

I get the logic that she's no longer good enough to compete in the CH so a drop in class will be OK, but it just doesn't work like that when it comes to it does it, the regression is always steeper than the drop in grade, she'd be a lay all day in the mares.

They'll give her another run and if she's up to scratch then she will run in the CH otherwise they will retire her IMO.
Report impossible123 December 6, 2022 7:19 PM GMT
I do not think she'd an off-day. I think it was regression. As such, a stonking lay at 10; probably not good enough to win even without Constitution Hill.
Report paulo47 December 7, 2022 9:58 AM GMT
They arent stupid and knowing that if its CH it means Constitution Hill , then the aim this year must be an absolute peak for one day in March . Not saying that hasnt been the case in the past , but more important this year .
Report irishone December 7, 2022 10:49 PM GMT
Echoes aint a bridle horse
You dont win the amateur race at Galway on the bridle
She was well under the cosh a she hadbeen in previous races and responded well
Report unclepuncle December 29, 2022 10:55 PM GMT
Well the Xmas racing is over and not much has changed. Most of the big race favourites won, none of them doing anything especially incredible.

One horse I dabbled on the week before Christmas, after a good write up by Daryl Jacob in his Sporting Life column, was Dark Raven - managed to get £4 at an average of 214/1 for the Ballymore so was nice to see him win well on Boxing Day. Mullins suggested a step up in trip next so the dream is alive.Grin

Good to see Gaillard Du Mesnil finally get his head in front over fences - just hope they go for the Gold Cup. Guess much will depend on how Galopin Des Champs gets on.

Thought Vauban ran well and would fancy him to turn the tables on State Man if they meet again in the Irish Champion. Not sure either can trouble Constitution Hill though.

Lossiemouth won well again and might even be odds on for the TriumphShocked. I was happy with Comfort Zones win at Chepstow - looked to be hosing up two out but hit the front way too soon and idled on the very soft ground.

I also got the feeling that Ile Atlantique may be the Mullins number 1 for the Bumper - 12/1 with the few bookies quoting it, not in the Betfair Exchange market?
Report irishone December 29, 2022 11:15 PM GMT
Another good read uncle but do try leaving out the after timing !
Report golightly December 30, 2022 9:22 PM GMT
From SL website

Ile Atlantique was another winner at Leopardstown and showed what he’s been showing us at home. Unfortunately he had one run over hurdles in France so he’s not qualified for the championship bumpers. So we will stick down a domestic path him and hopefully he can win another bumper, if not two.
Report unclepuncle December 31, 2022 6:57 AM GMT
^Thanks golightly.

I'd read Willies comment after the race “I think he’s championship bumper class so he’ll be heading down that road. He’ll probably come back here for the Dublin Racing Festival.” - I just assumed when he said 'Championship Bumper class' he was referring to the Cheltenham bumper.

Fortunately hadn't staked any money on it - though some bookies still offering odds? Obviously it could never run so anyone who had a bet on it should get it voide, but good luck trying to get your money back!!
Report FOYLESWAR December 31, 2022 9:52 AM GMT
impaire et passe a french bred  who won his only start a bumper in nancy in the   munir silks made a taking debut for willie mullins in a 2m 3f novice hurdle at naas hacking up easily by 18 lenths  dont know what he beat but  the moscow flyer was mentioned as a possible  .
Report duffy December 31, 2022 8:39 PM GMT
Lossiemouths race was run very slowly once again, slower than Dark Raven's and quite a bit slower run than the novice handicappers later,but, once again she was the fastest horse,all things being equal though the Triumph will be a much stiffer test, she may well be up to it but she's getting hammered in the market without us having seen if she could cope with a stamina test on quick ground that the Triumph is likely to be.

If the Spring Juvenile is another dawdle and she wins there she will be banker material for many but I think she will also have her fair share of people putting her up as a shortie to lay come the preview nights.
Report irishone December 31, 2022 9:50 PM GMT
Willie has mentioned chapeau du soleil as a bumper target horse previously , however (13\2) to overturn a significant beating by better days ahead (11\1) recently is a puzzler. Gordon knows what he has there, openly deriding the hype about willies bumper horse at fairyhouse after the Drinmore and before one of his beat Honeysuckle.

I feel the demand for backing gordons horses has dropped off since the infamous incident and this has provided a bit of value.
Report irishone December 31, 2022 11:45 PM GMT
Duffy .....

"Lossiemouths race was run very slowly once again, slower than Dark Raven's and quite a bit slower run than the novice handicappers later"

According to official figures ...

1st.  Lossiemouth (FR) 3, gr f 10-9 (Mrs S Ricci)
(4:08.4 5.92 secs slower on today's going )L

1st,Dark Raven (IRE) 5, br g 11-12 (Simon Munir)
(4:10.1 7.62 secs slower on today's going )

Dark Raven ran the same course 1.7 seconds slower than Lossiemouth and half an hour previous  ?

The novice handicap was won in 0.8 of a second quicker , how is that quite a bit faster over a four minute race ?
Report irishone December 31, 2022 11:54 PM GMT
What do they do now with the clock in Ireland duffy ?

The distances used to be accurate to half a furlong , I cant see them GPS the course before hand , having been to several Irish tracks. The starting podium is often moved between races, and over the years I have seen hurdles moved, the rail moved and fences blocked off during meetings.  Never made public ...... that the distance has changed it still the first horse past the starting post ?
Report unclepuncle January 1, 2023 10:31 AM GMT
Have been thinking Il Ridoto is being plotted up for the Grand Annual - similar pattern to Le PrezienLove a few years ago.
Will keep a close eye on him today.
Sadly can’t find any bookie quoting him for the GA.
Report unclepuncle January 1, 2023 2:06 PM GMT
^Ran exactly as I hoped.Devil
If I can get 20/1+ for the Grand Annual nrnb I’ll be lumping on.
Report duffy January 1, 2023 4:53 PM GMT

I'm on about the pace of the race through it rather than the finishing time and in both of Lossiemouth's wins the pace of the race through it has been slower than comparable races on the same card, all we've seen from her so far is that she has been the quickest horse in a pair of dawdles.

I haven't run the first race alongside lossiemouth's but the other two I have and the pace through it was slower, the novice handicap, significantly so, run them side by side and you'll see and it's an interesting thing to do.

It's not to say she wouldn't be equally effective through a stiff test but it's a fundamental question that she has yet to answer, but she is already priced up as if she is bomb proof.
Report irishone January 1, 2023 10:52 PM GMT
duffy ,

sometimes they go quick at the end, slow at the start and sometimes they go same pace all the way  through, sometimes they go quick at the start and slow at the end  ....... So what ?

you dont know if lossiemouth had a bit up her sleeve or is open to greater improvement before cheltenham , she may have the potential ...we dont know .....she is a three year  old until the end of march, but only even 4 years old officially.

you also dont know if the films you work from are slowed up or sped forward.
you also cant measure exactly when a horse leaves the ground and jumps before another at a later date or time because the camera angle is not always going to be exactly the same.

your analysis is full of holes, wheres your fraction times taken from ?

the rational part of your brain suggests a scientific outcome is plausible when making comments about racehorses.... its simply not true. Ruby compares the films weekly and he does it to fill time  and take the dosh , easy money compared to sitting on the back of a racehorse jumping fences at 35 miles an hour.

Lease yourself a racehorse and look after it for a few hours a day for a month, it will be a lot cheaper than investing in what you believe to be logical scientific outcomes and applying them to horse races and racehorses.
Report irishone January 2, 2023 12:48 AM GMT
El Fabiolo who would have beaten Jonbon over hurdles at Aintree bar the hampering imvho
has emerged as a serious contender in the Arkle market since the impressive pre christmas jaunt around Fairyhouse ....but Willie has several other entries and could end up with a good few in it .
Report duffy January 2, 2023 4:29 PM GMT

sometimes they go quick at the end, slow at the start and sometimes they go same pace all the way  through, sometimes they go quick at the start and slow at the end  ....... So what ?

I disagree with and am surprised with your assertion that the pace of the race doesn't matter, I always thought it was quite fundamental I'll concede that I've not conducted a highly scientific experiment but it's quite possible to run a couple races side by side pretty accurately in order to see how they compare and Lossiemouth's two wins have been run slower than other races on the same day.

Yes she might have more up her sleeve and be laden with stamina but my point is that the market has reacted to her easy wins which she gained by injecting pace at the end of a couple of slow run races whereas the Triumph is likely to be a stamina test on quicker ground that will be something completely new
Report irishone January 2, 2023 6:02 PM GMT
yeah i get that duffy

My point is  that I dont know if you are the sort of person who is driven to set predictions and benefit from them in other parts of your life. It certainly appears that you are. Horses don't fit inside the neat parameters of home or work life. Horses are far more variable, and less controllable. Even more so the thoroughbred.

Your expectation of perfect prediction through some unscientific  analysis  doesn't take into consideration the fundamental realities of training, owning or riding a racehorse  . This ultimately will only lead to disappointment and frustration my friend.
Report brandyontherocks January 2, 2023 10:01 PM GMT
I like timing horses over the same trip on the same day.

Timing them from certain hurdles/jumps to another.

Not sure why they would speed up a certain relay!!!!!

On a different note, were you impressed with how El Fabiolo jumped on debut?
Considering he had an uncontested school around I found his jumping a huge disappointment.
Thought Appreciate It was far better.
Report irishone January 3, 2023 7:27 AM GMT
Yes I agree with that Brandy.
Having said that ..... Douvan hurdled the fences and paid the price with injury. Denman tanked through them as well, and Bravemansgame is low at times. Penhill couldnt jump a hurdle to save his life and was never risked chasing in public and now even Hendersons Maries Rock was dodgy hurdling pre-injury.
I am absolutely certain Willie thinks speed is a far better trait for a horse to have than slowing to  jump fences well and safely and he wouldnt risk any of his over jumps in public unless he had seen something at closutton.
Report cobra sam January 3, 2023 11:06 AM GMT
Happy new year to all….good discussion and everyone entitled to their views ,methods,,there’s no golden rule and we are all not privy to spending time with racehorses…Anyways I got a small interest on Marine National,,resting for new year hopefully fresh and fit and ready come the fezzie
Report Bentring January 3, 2023 11:15 AM GMT
Good luck with your bet is it nrnb or war as can't see it getting smaller unless something happens the x
Report cobra sam January 3, 2023 11:23 AM GMT it’s on the machine,,saw the trainer on tv over crimbo ..laid out his plan and was adamant,,,hope he’s an honest Irish trainer,,,tbh Bent he’s about my 30th punt,,,,only1 in the supreme
Report cobra sam January 3, 2023 11:30 AM GMT
Bent ,,,this Fascile Mode in the bumper ? Getting matched 8.6 machine,,,what u thinking ?
Report Hibore January 3, 2023 11:45 AM GMT
The pace of the race can be just as important as the ground and distance. There is no argument if you speak to jockeys and trainers.
Irish mentions Marie’s Rock and as a case in question her impressive win on Sunday was partly due to the strong pace set by Dashel Drasher and Botox has. Marie’s was very fresh and that pace just allowed her to settle enough to show her true running. Anything less and she would have pulled her chances away. Championship races are run to suit her and it will be a great race if Epatante an/or Honeysuckle take her on.
Report impossible123 January 4, 2023 7:42 AM GMT
Protektorat, Noble **** and Chacun Pour Soi have been tipped by 3 stooges at The Racing Post. The 1st 2 for the Gold Cup (7/1 and 9/1 respectively); 3rd the Ryanair (25/1); Protektorat is a handicapper/ducked King George; Noble **** won The National!; Chacun Pour Soi (11 yrs old/never won at Cheltenham despite numerous chances).

No doubt they are bookies' stooges. The prices are also pants!
Report irishone January 4, 2023 8:04 AM GMT
"Hope he's an honest Irish trainer"

Ask fenton or hogan
Report Bentring January 4, 2023 10:30 AM GMT
What am I thinking about the bumper...
.relax have a cup of tea forget the bookies benefit
Report cobra sam January 5, 2023 11:01 AM GMT
Thx Bent ,,I’ll soldier on thx…if I’m honest with myself,,the bumper been my worst race followed by triumph and supreme …still in my head there big fields ew top 3 1/5….victor used to go top4 ante post on triumph till a few years back….
Report duffy January 9, 2023 1:54 AM GMT
A good performance from Champ Kiely and in particular from the jockey, to the eye it really did look like he rode them to sleep a little setting what appeared to be a steady pace. The fact that he settled so well at the pace was a credit to the horse with the last time in mind, I had backed him for the Ballymore previously but I would be a bit suspicious of the form with regards the winner going forward strictly on the way it panned out for him today.

Dawn Rising is one to note for the Albert Bartlett, he stayed on strongly in the Monksfield off of a decent pace throughout and again today he stayed on to the line after looking like he was going nowhere off the home turn, the race today was not run to suit him, he is really crying out for the extra trip and will be interesting when he gets the longer trip I think 25's that is still available represents some value.
Report Andymca January 9, 2023 12:56 PM GMT
I read this too late, Dawn Rising is now best priced at 14s and 12s nrnb. Oh well, better late than never
Report cobra sam January 9, 2023 3:15 PM GMT
Still 25/1 a few places for potato race
Report racing6699 January 9, 2023 3:46 PM GMT

Jan 8, 2023 -- 7:54PM, duffy wrote:

A good performance from Champ Kiely and in particular from the jockey, to the eye it really did look like he rode them to sleep a little setting what appeared to be a steady pace. The fact that he settled so well at the pace was a credit to the horse with the last time in mind, I had backed him for the Ballymore previously but I would be a bit suspicious of the form with regards the winner going forward strictly on the way it panned out for him today.Dawn Rising is one to note for the Albert Bartlett, he stayed on strongly in the Monksfield off of a decent pace throughout and again today he stayed on to the line after looking like he was going nowhere off the home turn, the race today was not run to suit him, he is really crying out for the extra trip and will be interesting when he gets the longer trip I think 25's that is still available represents some value.

duffy do you think for DR knowing connections they will go for Hcp instead?

Report Andymca January 9, 2023 4:05 PM GMT

Jan 9, 2023 -- 9:15AM, cobra sam wrote:

Still 25/1 a few places for potato race

Yeah, I might actually take some of that myself, but keep most for 12s, which is fine with comfort of nrnb, epecially after sam's last post

Report duffy January 9, 2023 5:46 PM GMT
DR could run in the MP but a couple of reasons I'd doubt that he would, firstly, he's desperate to go up in trip with improvement very likely which makes the AB so tempting I'd have thought, secondly, he is admittedly a bit clumsy at some of his hurdles and I'd be worried that the apprentices coupled with the helter skelter pace they tend to go in the MP will likely see him outpaced and making mistakes before his stamina ever kicked in.

The steadier nature and more gradual turning of the screw of the AB will give him the perfect conditions to show him to best effect, and remember that he was a classy flat performer who was putting up a decent performance against Al Aasy over just shy of 2 miles as a 3 year old.
Report brandyontherocks January 14, 2023 5:55 PM GMT
Looks like N.Henderson has finely came around to my thinking ( 22nd March on here).

I wonder if he reads these posts?
Report brandyontherocks January 14, 2023 6:22 PM GMT
Report unclepuncle January 29, 2023 8:34 AM GMT
Nice to have a really good days racing without any stupid low sun problems.
Good to see Comfort Zone win - not going to make Willie Mullins lose too much sleep but at least I go there with a fighting chance and can maybe lay off on the day or during the race.
Il Ridoto finally got his act together with the cheekpieces added with a superb front running and jumping display. I've backed him nrnb for the Grand Annual and still think he'd have more chance in that than the Plate especially if they ride him like yesterday, but I expect the Plate is where he will run now.

The three big trials all threw up shock winners.

In the Clarence House Editor Du Gite simply jumped them silly and while Edwardstone came there to win he wilted in the last 50 yards. A lot of people crabbing Tom Cannon ,and maybe he was guilty of being too far back and only looking at Energuneme so allowing EDG too much of a lead,, but he's never shirked it in a finish before and the fact he traded 1.01 suggests nobody else thought he would.

The Irish look to have the Stayers hurdle by the short and curls after the Cleeve. The French horse will presumably be supplemented and will have a good place chance.

The Cotswold Chase was won by Ahoy Senor but in a bigger field I can't see his jumping holding up well enough to figure - and besides, a narrow beating of Sounds Russian is hardly very exciting.

One horse I put in my notebook was Phoenix Way who ran 4th in the Il Ridoto race. Will be suited to stepping up to 3m+ and being a JP horse may be being lined up for something.
Report irishone January 29, 2023 4:10 PM GMT
irishone05 Dec 22 07:08
Echoes target is the mares hurdle (14\1), she got up and finished o k. Between 3 out and 2 out she was on the bridle

Echoes In Rain books Cheltenham ticket

Trainer Willie Mullins and jockey Paul Townend lost Naas' opening Grade 3 chase in the stewards' room today but bagged the other such-rated Naas Business Club Limestone Lad Hurdle, with Cheltenham-bound Echoes In Rain (5/6f).
The hurdle race's six runners included dual Cheltenham winner Bob Olinger but none could land a blow against Echoes In Rain, which won unextended by 10 lengths from stablemate Cash Back.

Mullins.... said “Echoes In Rain did it nicely, probably better than I expected. We thought we probably had the fastest horse in the race so Paul wasn't in any rush to get to the front. He was happy enough to let someone else make it.She was keen enough and probably the few runs on the Flat lit her up a bit. That's the problem you have when you mix it but with a faster run race she'll be alright.”
He added “when you go up a grade, to Grade 1, I'm not sure she's sharp enough at two miles. The mares hurdle is 2m4f and maybe that's where she'll go. That would be the first port of call I'd think.”

Willie suffering Amnesia, told a Galway gathering that was the plan last July ! Got the 14s anyway . This mare is half decent nearly beat Aidens in the Irish Cesarewich,got done a neck for 250 k !
Report irishone January 29, 2023 4:50 PM GMT
Wouldnt go near those CHELTENHAM TRIALS DAY placed horses , its a second class hyped up meeting .

What was it last year , 8 races , 24 in the first three, not one winner Cheltenham 6 weeks later.

Only one second  Imperial alcazar got beat in a handicap by Coole Cody.

Four placed ....pied piper, spirit of the games, paisley park plus the imperial alcazbar

I bet half of them never even went to Cheltenham last year for the festival .... Some trial that was ! you would think after being placed round there you would be gagging to get back there.

Meanwhile same day in Fairyhouse Willies Allegori de vassey was beating brandy love and flame bearer was pi55ing in.

Not impressed by anything at all there yesterday
Report irishone January 29, 2023 5:26 PM GMT
To be fair in covid year 2020, that simplythe betts and lisnagar oscar both finished in the first three on trials day and then won at Cheltenham, but you could of seen Alaho win on the same day at Fairyhouse.
Report impossible123 February 3, 2023 7:40 AM GMT
To me this Cheltenham is all about Constitution Hill. I'd to see him exert his superiority (assuming all is good) over Honeysuckle and others over this code and distance.
Report Andymca February 3, 2023 11:30 AM GMT
Honeysuckle is past her prime and the race won't show superiority over her. Ch is already classed as the best hurdler and State Man is also ahead of her in the betting too. Same race 2 years ago, would prove superiority. It is a non race gambling wise and betting w/o fav or place are the only real value. If the front 3 in the betting over racerach other, it could let Vauban in for the win or one of the also rans in with a place.
Report irishone February 3, 2023 12:15 PM GMT
On paper CH should walk it
....then there's the dodgy henderson factor

An each way punt on stateman or vauban wont leave  you too much out of pocket.....thats what I have with Honeysuckle
Report Bentring February 3, 2023 10:22 PM GMT
@andymca as much as I detest the jockey he o ly has to point and shoot,if he races anywhere other than in front I will be surprised and everything will be hard at work at the 2nd last and wouldn't be surprised if he wins by a similar distance that he won last year's supreme
Report Bentring February 3, 2023 10:23 PM GMT
Oh and 1/3 is a gift
Report unclepuncle March 11, 2023 2:56 PM GMT
Comfort Zone not among the 5 day decs for the Triumph which is a bitter blow.Cry
Report PeteTheBloke March 15, 2023 9:57 PM GMT
>  Jonbon at 14/1 is the most logical for the Arkle at this stage

> Enurgemene is clearly a beast, though soft ground was a big help to him. He's clearly the most likely winner and 3/1 is ok.

>  Constitution Hill and it looks like the owner is keen to stay over hurdles. Would certainly favour him over the reigning champion Honeysuckle,

Great long-range insight, Uncle. I look forward to this year's edition.
Post Your Reply
<CTRL+Enter> to submit
Please login to post a reply.


Instance ID: 13539