handicap weights confirmed?

Tuesday.

Can’t wait, literally haven’t been able to wait and just trusted the handicapper to be fair. I think the Irish used to average 3-5lb more when coming over to GB. I’ve got a feeling it will be more like 7-10lb for them this time.

The Irish trainers wont bother sending them over if they have too much weight.
This has been the case for years not just in tiger rolls case.

They know what weights their horses have a chance with because they train them better and know what they are at.

The notion of training on the job is looked down upon by the BHA and results in a Stewards Enquiry when horses arent ridden to win. If that happened in Ireland  there wouldn't be any racing.

They can put up the weights as much as they like, but if the Irish dont come over at the top of the handicap there will be space for more to come over at the bottom. J P would luv that !

A think Henrietta grows onions

who ya thinking? i care allen,,,had a small bet for the triumph,boodles bound for sure

Tomorrow will show if the handicapper has been paying attention. I’ll say who it is once the weights are out although I doubt it’s a big secret from some of you clued your folk.
And yeah it’s a very dangerous race to betting big, and I wouldn’t normally but can’t let this one go.

Ratings released by BHA today but won’t be widely available until tomorrow, Wednesday 2nd March

Ok, bit of homework for you all….the horse in question is Elliotts The Tide Turns.

Just watch its last two races, first at Leopardstown where he was pulling the horse head back, trying to get it to slow down while flapping his arms around pretending to try!
If he let it go, I honestly think it would of gone very close to beating to the big two that day (Fil dor and Vauban).

Then at Gowran Park it was going as well as anything turning for home, all jockeys started riding to accelerate off the corner accept this one, the jockey stayed motionless, even coming stand side maybe by coincidence to avoid the camera!

Elliott has a good record in this race and two of his winners had a similar amount of runs on the flat for another trainer.
His horses that do well in this have a first run for the yard at Xmas or new year, and normally win their first race before not trying to try and get a low mark in the next two races.
This horse has a similar profile to his winners in 2013 and 2019, although they were off 127 and 129, where as this one shoulders 137.

After a quick skim through, Hms seahorse looks well in getting 9lb off my boy and would of been a lot closer to the two stars at Punchestown pied piper and fil dor but for a mistake two out. His available at 12/1 so I’ve had a small cover bet.

Before judging these comments, please watch these races I advised, it’s amazing how Elliott gets away with it tbh.

Wouldnt disagree with Barnes , just point out though that the horse got beat at 1/3 in a 3 horse all weather race from a seemingly winning position . May not be entirely straightforward .

You're always saying us Paddies are great??

Yeah I’d expect most on here to be fully aware of the horses ability tbf Duffy. I just missed it as I was focused on the horses I backed and it’s market rivals in those particular races.

Cheers Paulo, sounds like it maybe best produced late and may even be worth a keep lay.

Davy Russell has never won this race surprisingly, or maybe not given his flat rats previous comments, so I’m hoping Kennedy rides.

No doubt some of the handicappers will improve by 20lb or more but some never win again after romping home at Cheltenham while others go on to be Grade 1 winners.

The Irish handicapper is always dead on, so look out for horses running 20 pounds below their Irish mark.

So how does an Irish handicapper rate a horse that finishes 50 lengths behind Kilcruit in a novice hurdle without being asked any questions? 20lb inferior?, 50lb inferior? Still a pure guess and there is a strong case for not giving a handicap rating to a horse from another country (and that includes Ireland). When did GB or Ireland last win a decent handicap in France?