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The long time favourite for the 3m Brown Advisory Novice Chase is now on the drift and shortening for the 2m4f Turners Novice Chase on the back of Ruby’s recent comments …
"Galopin could definitely still run in the 2m4f Turners. It will depend on his performance and jumping on Sunday. If he's spectacular again Willie could definitely think the right road is to take on Bob Olinger."
Would be a great race against Bob Olinger but I’m sure this will cause havoc with the majority of punters ante-post slips should it actually happen.
"Galopin could definitely still run in the 2m4f Turners. It will depend on his performance and jumping on Sunday. If he's spectacular again Willie could definitely think the right road is to take on Bob Olinger."
Would be a great race against Bob Olinger but I’m sure this will cause havoc with the majority of punters ante-post slips should it actually happen.
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This has been my thinking for a while.
Obviously this weekend will tell us more, but on the evidence of his debut this looks the logical race.
But we all know what Ruby is like. If he suggests one race then there is a good chance he will go for the other.
Obviously this weekend will tell us more, but on the evidence of his debut this looks the logical race.
But we all know what Ruby is like. If he suggests one race then there is a good chance he will go for the other.
Yeah on the Paddy power podcast Ruby said it makes sense going shorter so that quicker jumping can be used more.
The horse couldn’t have been any more impressive on his debut and had it not been for the fact he’s won over 3 miles at Punchestown (over hurdles), I suppose not many would be thinking along the lines of stepping up to 3m right now anyway. The RSA/Brown Advisory can leave it’s mark on a horse and Mullins might well have Monkfish still fresh in his mind. GDC can still be campaigned towards a Gold Cup next season if they want to go down that route.
Personally i think they will swerve which ever race Gallopin goes for, and not vice versa.
It shows how easily markets can be manipulated, in this case by someone who doesn't give a toss about punters. When he was riding I don't remember him once saying that star horses should take on other stable's star horses, it was always about the easiest target. So what is it now, truth or just attention seeking?
Galopin Des Champs made his chase debut on 28 December and was immediately installed a short priced favourite for the Brown Advisory. Why has it taken Walsh more than a month to come up with this theory? Can't the trainer actually speak for himself? Surely all the same factors applied at the end of December? The distance of the races haven't changed. If they are scared that he doesn't stay three miles, even though he has won over three miles, and has consistently finished strongly over the shorter trip, then it is debatable whether he will ever be a Gold Cup horse. In terms of the Brown Advisory we are talking three furlongs more on the less testing track. It seems strange to me that the horse Walsh seems to regard as a danger, Bravemansgame, is a questionable stayer, and might not even run. He also bombed out last year and perhaps Cheltenham just isn't his track. He is by no means a solid alternative. Perhaps, even though he only has one piece of form at the trip, JP has already had a tickle on Capodanno? The momentum for this switch only seems to have gathered pace after he was turned aside by Bob Olinger. It would certainly make his task a little bit easier with Galopin Des Champs out of the way. Conspiracy theory maybe, but it is not hard to believe that JP usually gets what he wants.
Bob Olinger is not going to switch to the Brown Advisory. I am sure he would be delighted if Galopin Des Champs and L'Homme Presse beat themselves up on the front end.
Galopin Des Champs made his chase debut on 28 December and was immediately installed a short priced favourite for the Brown Advisory. Why has it taken Walsh more than a month to come up with this theory? Can't the trainer actually speak for himself? Surely all the same factors applied at the end of December? The distance of the races haven't changed. If they are scared that he doesn't stay three miles, even though he has won over three miles, and has consistently finished strongly over the shorter trip, then it is debatable whether he will ever be a Gold Cup horse. In terms of the Brown Advisory we are talking three furlongs more on the less testing track. It seems strange to me that the horse Walsh seems to regard as a danger, Bravemansgame, is a questionable stayer, and might not even run. He also bombed out last year and perhaps Cheltenham just isn't his track. He is by no means a solid alternative. Perhaps, even though he only has one piece of form at the trip, JP has already had a tickle on Capodanno? The momentum for this switch only seems to have gathered pace after he was turned aside by Bob Olinger. It would certainly make his task a little bit easier with Galopin Des Champs out of the way. Conspiracy theory maybe, but it is not hard to believe that JP usually gets what he wants.
Bob Olinger is not going to switch to the Brown Advisory. I am sure he would be delighted if Galopin Des Champs and L'Homme Presse beat themselves up on the front end.
In that podcast Ruby does with Lydia (on the road to Cheltenham) he did say just after Galopin won at Christmas there was no need to step him up.
Personally just looking at the race I would keep him to the intermediate trip.
He is only 6 and runs and jumps like a speed horse.
The issue is W. Mullins has so many horses to juggle around it is impossible to work out who goes where.
When Ruby was riding he made sure the stars were kept apart so he could ride them all.
Personally just looking at the race I would keep him to the intermediate trip.
He is only 6 and runs and jumps like a speed horse.
The issue is W. Mullins has so many horses to juggle around it is impossible to work out who goes where.
When Ruby was riding he made sure the stars were kept apart so he could ride them all.
Although I'd fancy Galopin to win either race I do not see Mullins taking on Bob, it would go against all we know about him. He must see the longer race as the easier of the two, Bob has a huge level of improvement in him and Mullins well knows he is a proper top notcher.
Although there is no talk about it, I'd be more in favour of BMG coming back in trip to take on Bob rather than face Galopin over the longer trip. I'd be scared of Galopin if I was Nicholl's as his strength is also Galopins strength but Galopin is likely to be the stronger stayer, therefore Nicholl's might feel forced to take a chance in having to try and get Bob on his head with his jumping.
There is no need for Mullins to take the same risk against Bob.
Although there is no talk about it, I'd be more in favour of BMG coming back in trip to take on Bob rather than face Galopin over the longer trip. I'd be scared of Galopin if I was Nicholl's as his strength is also Galopins strength but Galopin is likely to be the stronger stayer, therefore Nicholl's might feel forced to take a chance in having to try and get Bob on his head with his jumping.
There is no need for Mullins to take the same risk against Bob.
I’ve just done the times for the Sunday chases , times taken from rtv website and also from when they landed from the second last to the finish and Galopin put in a monster effort on figures.
He was 9 seconds quicker than the handicap chase won by a 133 rated horse, who was carrying 24lb less!
Also from the Second last he posted a time 49.81, compared to Birchdales 53.62.
Chacun Pour soi finished in 50.02 so was only a tiny bit slower, carrying 2lb more, but Townend was working harder to push him out and had run four furlongs less.
This to me puts Galopin in monster territory with one of the highest ever ratings despite his jumping not being perfect.
Nothing else prominent could live with him, with the two held up coming through to take the place money.
I’ve backed it in both Cheltenham races, but more so in the turners where we know he’ll love the new course once more. All nrnb, hopefully Townend rides Cheltenham better than normal.
He was 9 seconds quicker than the handicap chase won by a 133 rated horse, who was carrying 24lb less!
Also from the Second last he posted a time 49.81, compared to Birchdales 53.62.
Chacun Pour soi finished in 50.02 so was only a tiny bit slower, carrying 2lb more, but Townend was working harder to push him out and had run four furlongs less.
This to me puts Galopin in monster territory with one of the highest ever ratings despite his jumping not being perfect.
Nothing else prominent could live with him, with the two held up coming through to take the place money.
I’ve backed it in both Cheltenham races, but more so in the turners where we know he’ll love the new course once more. All nrnb, hopefully Townend rides Cheltenham better than normal.
I think he will run in the 3 mile race, there were a couple of times yesterday when the horse and jockey were on a different page and afterwards Mullins had a slight concern in his voice when he noted the pace they were going contributed to this in his opinion. I think the longer race at a stride slower he might see as the percentage call. Also if you run in the Turner's, they are banking on his jumping at pace, (which at the quicker pace Mullins has flagged as a little concern yesterday) is the very thing that they'd be banking on to beat Bob with by putting him under pressure, but yesterday Mullins questioned that very weapon going forward.
If Bob has improved his jumping and it's not bad now then he would be a massive threat late on because he's very likely to be the quicker horse at that trip, you couldn't think that GDC could serve it up to Ferny Hollow for instance and BOB also will find stacks under pressure, it was a shame Capodano went so early yesterday but GDM certainly put in a much better run than he did against Bob previously.
If Bob has improved his jumping and it's not bad now then he would be a massive threat late on because he's very likely to be the quicker horse at that trip, you couldn't think that GDC could serve it up to Ferny Hollow for instance and BOB also will find stacks under pressure, it was a shame Capodano went so early yesterday but GDM certainly put in a much better run than he did against Bob previously.
Hi Brandy, Racing Tv only do sectionals in England, Scotland and Wales annoyingly, which is why I got the stop watch out myself for yesterday.
I’ve done the hurdles aswell, but the last two races omitted the second last so it’s harder to do.
I’ve done the hurdles aswell, but the last two races omitted the second last so it’s harder to do.
That is annoying.
Thanks for the reply and your work with the clock.
Thanks for the reply and your work with the clock.
A facile win yesterday to redeem his reputation post Cheltenham. Nevertheless, does that warrant his leading position for 2023 Gold Cup at Cheltenham infront of impressive reigning champion A Plus Tard?
He probably does. He's hugely exciting, physically imposing, likley to get better, and the race seems to heavily favour second season chasers. It's also likley that APT will struggle to put up such a big performance again (after 14 chases - so will be around 17 by the time of the race - he might begin to regress a bit). On the other hand, APT stays the trip, and we know he is capable of a very high level of form. He was deeply impressive this year. He also has the best jockey.
Others should be remembered too - L'Homme Presee is unexposed at 3 m+. Ahoy Senor will likley appreciate an end-to-end gallop on the New Course. Monkfish showed a good level of form in his novice season (the RSA aside) and will be trained to the second because the owner is desparate to win a Gold Cup. Stattler has great potential as a stayer (though could be more of a National type). Galvin would not be out of it if the race turned into a slog. And usally something comes out of left-field for the Gold Cup - My Drogo perhaps? But, equally, at least a couple of these won't make the race for one reason or another.
Others should be remembered too - L'Homme Presee is unexposed at 3 m+. Ahoy Senor will likley appreciate an end-to-end gallop on the New Course. Monkfish showed a good level of form in his novice season (the RSA aside) and will be trained to the second because the owner is desparate to win a Gold Cup. Stattler has great potential as a stayer (though could be more of a National type). Galvin would not be out of it if the race turned into a slog. And usally something comes out of left-field for the Gold Cup - My Drogo perhaps? But, equally, at least a couple of these won't make the race for one reason or another.
Galopin Des Champs (GDC) may have an abundance of potential but unless he's done it ie beating serious seasoned chasers eg Betfair/Savills Chase, etc (not Tramore), jumps consistently sound I'd look elsewhere given his stingy price (more trainer related). Similarly, the others you mentioned eg Monkfish post injury; Statler is not for me.
On the other hand A Plus Tard (APT) was 2nd in the event last year, and pilot reckoned she raced too early; still impacted by exertion in the Betfair (he won by a distance) on bottomless ground when chinned by Galvin in the Savills; trounced reigning champion by a distance at Cheltenham. Yet, 4/1 for next year's renewal? Barmy, I think.
Next season I'd expect APT (still only 9) to have a slightly more economical programme eg bypass Savills Chase after Betfair. Then to Tramore for a paid racecourse gallop before defending his crown in March even if Mr Mullins adopts the same programme for GDC as he's done with Al Boum Photo.
On the other hand A Plus Tard (APT) was 2nd in the event last year, and pilot reckoned she raced too early; still impacted by exertion in the Betfair (he won by a distance) on bottomless ground when chinned by Galvin in the Savills; trounced reigning champion by a distance at Cheltenham. Yet, 4/1 for next year's renewal? Barmy, I think.
Next season I'd expect APT (still only 9) to have a slightly more economical programme eg bypass Savills Chase after Betfair. Then to Tramore for a paid racecourse gallop before defending his crown in March even if Mr Mullins adopts the same programme for GDC as he's done with Al Boum Photo.
Kauto Star, Long Run and Imperial Commander all put up better performances than APT on ratings and couldn't win again the following season. The main doubt about GDC is surely stamina, rather than quality, hence highlighting the stayers who might line up against him.
I'd suggest the value lies in a proven but relatively unexposed stayer, rather than either APT or GDC. Yet they are the most likely winners.
I'd suggest the value lies in a proven but relatively unexposed stayer, rather than either APT or GDC. Yet they are the most likely winners.
Will he stay the Gold Cup trip is the question for me. And just about the only one. I think he is top draw. He should strengthen up over the summer and come on a bit but vert, very good horses have been found out going up the Cheltenham hill and at present there is no reason to suggest he will stay the trip.
However, I can't wait to watch him again. He is class as far as I am concerned.
However, I can't wait to watch him again. He is class as far as I am concerned.
dont you mean there is no reason to suggest he wont stay the trip.
I agree with that pov Cropstick, i.e., it seems likley he will stay the trip. He did win a G1 novice hurdle over 3 miles, which is encouraging. He looks to me like the type of horse who could win a Champion Chase, Ryanair or Gold Cup - he travels so easily and jumps so well.
But, as is often said, you don't know they will stay in the Gold Cup trip until they do. If I were looking to take him on in the betting, stamina would be the angle.
I also agree with Loyal H - I can't wait to watch him again. He's the nost exciting horse in training by far (and I mean no disrespect to A Plus Tard, Allaho, and Constitution Hill who I also think are top class).
But, as is often said, you don't know they will stay in the Gold Cup trip until they do. If I were looking to take him on in the betting, stamina would be the angle.
I also agree with Loyal H - I can't wait to watch him again. He's the nost exciting horse in training by far (and I mean no disrespect to A Plus Tard, Allaho, and Constitution Hill who I also think are top class).
I thought his performance on Sunday was the first time he looked like a Gold Cup horse.
His jumping was far more efficient and mature than his previous outings.
Maybe his last flight tumble at Cheltenham has made him respect his fences more.
He is undoubtedly exciting.
His jumping was far more efficient and mature than his previous outings.
Maybe his last flight tumble at Cheltenham has made him respect his fences more.
He is undoubtedly exciting.
He overjumped two of the first three at cheltenham
The horse was fired up for it like willies dysart horse
.......but he overjumped only one last week , interesting view brandy
The horse was fired up for it like willies dysart horse
.......but he overjumped only one last week , interesting view brandy
Was impressed on Sunday and also b4 the Marsh.
With Monkfish out(they don't always come back)Willie will want another dart for this and statler could be this way bound
rather than some scribes believing it's a national type.
Could end up better than Galvin(pace and elliot form didn't help)but only time will tell,unbeaten in 3 chases.
Although APT won am willing to go back to the 1st time runner in the Gold cup.
How Monkfish well being will undoubtedly have a factor.
Can we have a reply from unclepuncle please.
With Monkfish out(they don't always come back)Willie will want another dart for this and statler could be this way bound
rather than some scribes believing it's a national type.
Could end up better than Galvin(pace and elliot form didn't help)but only time will tell,unbeaten in 3 chases.
Although APT won am willing to go back to the 1st time runner in the Gold cup.
How Monkfish well being will undoubtedly have a factor.
Can we have a reply from unclepuncle please.
No, that is not what I mean - I always say what I mean. And I see no need to repeat it.
Likely is always just likely until it becomes proven either way and none of my hard-earned will go on him at Cheltenham in a Gold Cup at a short price. You of course can do as you wish.
And if you really want a free and easy discussion please try not to be fcking superficially sarcastic and sneering just because you ho;d an alternate point of view. Just air your opinion.
Donut.
Now is all that clear enough? Do you get what I mean?
Likely is always just likely until it becomes proven either way and none of my hard-earned will go on him at Cheltenham in a Gold Cup at a short price. You of course can do as you wish.
And if you really want a free and easy discussion please try not to be fcking superficially sarcastic and sneering just because you ho;d an alternate point of view. Just air your opinion.
Donut.
Now is all that clear enough? Do you get what I mean?
Anyone debating a gold cup vehemently eleven months away is struggling big time
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duffy
duffy03 Feb 22 14:32Joined: 28 Mar 03 | Topic/replies: 25,331 | Blogger: duffy's blog
Although I'd fancy Galopin to win either race I do not see Mullins taking on Bob, it would go against all we know about him.
Boom
duffy
duffy03 Feb 22 14:32Joined: 28 Mar 03 | Topic/replies: 25,331 | Blogger: duffy's blog
Although I'd fancy Galopin to win either race I do not see Mullins taking on Bob, it would go against all we know about him.
Boom
Irish 1 I like his input and if you look at his profile pic a few rebel songs wouldn't go amiss,was in kinks watching that
Just been looking at the betting for the King George.
This lad is a whopping 10/1.
They have Allaho as the market leader. I know he won the Punchestown race well and could easily land a King George, but surely his main target will be a 3rd Ryanair.
Will they follow a similar path for Allaho as last year?
If they do this would be the perfect race for Galopin.
10/1......fill your boots.
This lad is a whopping 10/1.
They have Allaho as the market leader. I know he won the Punchestown race well and could easily land a King George, but surely his main target will be a 3rd Ryanair.
Will they follow a similar path for Allaho as last year?
If they do this would be the perfect race for Galopin.
10/1......fill your boots.
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