Cheltenham Festival
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27 Jan 22
16:29
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05 Oct 11
Is De Bromhead expecting him to sneak into the handicap off 10 stone? He ran the 11/10 favourite for the Arkle to four lengths. It is inconceivable he is going to well treated, and that's before you even consider whether a relatively inexperienced, fragile horse, is going to be suited by a 20 runner cavalry charge. It could be race over after a fence. Contrast that to another crack at Ferny Hollow in what is likely to be a ten runner race. Is there really a decision to make?
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Don’t know about another crack at ferny hollow 2 minutes ago £6 to lay at 1000 nothing else in the world now as we speak £16 @ 14 and £2 @ 1000 ,
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5 to bet
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Coeur Sublime has been beaten twice by Ferny Hollow. Why will the third time be different? Of course, if Ferny Hollow should have a setback in the next six weeks, that changes things but I'd not be backing him antepost.
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Strange betting on the ankle over the last 1/2 hour ferny has been as big as 7 to bet now 7 to lay
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Ferny out 50 to bet 1000 to lay blue lord 4.1 to lay
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Looks like I jinxed Ferny Hollow
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It doesn't matter now, but I would have said 4 lengths isn't a lot, particularly if you were to hold onto him a bit longer, and of course you shouldn't be scared of one horse. He clearly didn't run his race under Donoghue, and he wouldn't be the only horse to do that this season. I would say the 25/1 is the current value should he get anywhere near that chasing debut. It isn't a strong race, and don't know why they would avoid running in it.
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Seems to be seeing out it’s races better since moving to De Bromhead.
Didn’t seem to lose any lengths in the run in at leopardstown either. Beat trees yesterday. |
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That's true, but at least he beat trees well, and that's twice he has gone well with Blackmore on board. He only missed one fence and seemed to cross the line with plenty in the tank.
I just think 25/1 is a big price for a horse who wasn't lucky to finish only 4 lengths behind a horse who was previously 11/10 favourite. The market seems to be relying on him running in the Grand Annual which for me looks a crazy idea. |
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But he finished 14L behind Ferny at Christmas.
Looks to me they are looking at the handicap route. Not convinced about him putting it all in at the finish. He would have 12L to turn around on the mare at Christmas too. Admittedly 7lbs better off but probably better off in the handicap if off a decent mark. |
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What mark do you think is decent for a very inexperienced horse in a 20 runner cavalry charge? I would say none. How many horses contemplate winning that race on their fourth start over fences, let alone win it? It wouldn't surprise me if a tipping line or suchlike put him up for the Grand Annual before the news of Ferny Hollow.
I would put a line through the Leopardstown run. Since he fell there as a young horse all of his three runs at the track have been poor. Donaghue isn't in the same class as Blackmore, and has been a disaster area on more than one horse this season. Ignore that run and he has every chance in an open renewal. |
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I agree it's a big ask, but it was done a couple of years ago with a horse having his 4th start.
Sublime has had 15 career starts now and has raced in a champion hurdle so does have experience. You're only looking at his first race against Ferny and using that form as gospel. Even though Ferny looked sticky in the early part of that race and slowly improved. When they met at Christmas he was no match for Ferny. |
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147
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Elliott had a horse that was possibly a novice win the grand annual- chosen mate? Very inexperienced from what I recall.
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Where's that 147 come from?
brandy, I am not taking one run as gospel just suggesting that is much closer to his actual ability than his second run which I have given reasons to explain which you have just ignored, and repeated your original argument. There isn't much point going round in circles. A horse who has finished second in a Triumph and raced in a Champion Hurdle doesn't/shouldn't target a Grand Annual unless a leg has fallen off. |
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this was btn miles in the Chmpn Hdle.
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All about opinions DD mate.
To me he was a 150 rated hurdler who as yet hasn't shown he will be much better over fences. So yes the Grand Annual would be a better option than Grade 1 novice chases. |
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Really poor forgot to mention the obvious. You only get one crack at an Arkle. If he's not good enough then the Grand Annual will still be there next year.
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To be fair it’s looking like a poor renewal with Mullins big two out.
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Dee me not running than ?
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Arkle
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Dee mee run ok I thought today
Backed it for races Handicap surly be going for now |
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That horse it beat didn't do the form much good yesterday, got smashed up by a 118 horse, off similar weight difference to the CS race, bad ground though, he did look happier against CS.
On that note, Krabat has had plenty of runs but looked pretty good on that ground, could be some juice in that mark when encountering testing conditions. |