Cheltenham Festival
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Another year over and time to look ahead to next season Festival - only 360 days to go.
Novice Hurdles.
The bumper was a two horse race according to the betting and that's how it turned out with Sir Gerhard making all under a typically canny ride from Rachel Blackmore from the staying on Kilcruit.
Kilcruit definitely doesn't look a Supreme type so that leaves the door open for Sir Gerhard in the Supreme - though he also might want further over obstacles, and is there a chance he goes straight over fences?
Both look the obvious favourites for the two main novice hurdles, though the bookies aren't exactly missing that at around 6/1 - for reference this time last year I got 14/1 on Ferny Hollow and Appreciate It for the Supreme and Ballymore respectively??
The potential fly in the ointment is Journey With Me for the Bob Olinger connections who was super impressive in his point and in his bumper last Friday (the same bumper that Bob Olinger won in 2020).
At 20/1 for the Ballymore he might be worth a punt.
Novice Chases
Appreciate It was hugely impressive in the Supreme but is built like a chaser and has already won a point so I expect Mullins will head down the Arkle route rather than go for the Champion Hurdle.
He's a similar price to Shiskin last year (5/1 best) and although not generous we all know what price Shiskin (and Envoi Allen ) went off this year so it's hard to blame the bookies.
Blue Lord was running a good race until he fell at the last and he makes some Arkle appeal at 33/1 if they go chasing.
Bob Olinger was just as impressive in the Ballymore and could be aimed at the Arkle (20/1) but I expect they will stick to the intermediate trip and go for the Marsh (5/1) - again not a price to get the juices flowing but hard to think he would be any bigger. And like this season I expect the trainers of the real hotpots will have a gentleman's agreement not to take each other on. He could even stay over hurdles and aim at the Champion but with Honeysuckle in the same yard I think that is unlikely.
Champion Hurdle
Unless Appreciate it or Bob Olinger stay over hurdles it should be Honeysuckles to lose - seems to be getting faster with age.
Epatante clearly not at her best the last twice but I fear she may have soured now and maybe the breeding sheds await. If they do keep her going I'd go straight to the Festival with her.
Quixilos won the Triumph well enough but with Tritonic and Zanayhir running lamentably it didn't take much winning.
Champion Chase
A blanket finish this year and many will think Shiskin just has to show up, but at a best price 7/4 I can easily resist.
I know most people will say he isn't a Cheltenham horse (after one run), but although I was against him all this season Chacun Pour Soi would be my idea of the value at 12/1. It took Min a few goes to get the tactics right and win at the Festival and maybe a more positive ride may help him. He travelled and jumped well and didn't' seem to have any obvious issue with the track or the fences other than tiring late on. He has been impressive at Leopardstown and that has a stiff finish, though he usually has the race put the bed well before the furlong pole.
Allaho could be interesting if they dropped him in trip and Energumene has looked very good and may have a part to play.
Ryanair
Arguably the performance of the week by Allaho and he is clearly the one to beat again if in the same form - the 5/1 is fair enough. Chance he may drop in trip but I'd expect Mullins to keep the faith with Chacan. Min is now past it and the others that ran this year don't look good enough. That leaves the Marsh runners but with Envoi Allen falling it wasn't a hot race and Chantry House was workmanlike and may even step up in trip.
Will be interesting to see what they do with Envoi Allen now. Change of stables clearly not ideal so close to the meeting and his demeanour before the start did raise alarm bells. 16/1 is tempting given his previous Festival form but if they get it wrong next time he could be a busted flush.
Stayer Hurdle
An impressive win by Flooring Porter but assuming they stick to hurdles I'll give Thyme Hill (even though it's trained in England
) another chance and 14/1 seems fair.
Gold Cup
Terrific performance from Minella Indo who beat the form horses fairly and squarely. Given what Alloha did to the Ryanair field it just goers to show how good a run it was in the RSA when Minella Indo went toe to toe with and then past Alloha until making that juddering error at the last. You'd think Al Boum Photo is maybe just slightly regressing so the front two plus Monkfish seem to be the main contenders.
Monkfish is half the price of the other two, and even Envoi Allen is shorter but has it all to prove before I could back him, and so Minella Indo at 10/1 would be my selection.
Given he seems to love Leopardstown I'd expect A Plus Tard to be aimed at the two big 3m chases at Christmas and February with Minella Indo maybe coming over for the King George (connections were due to run Monalee this year) or doing a similar route to Al Boum Photo.
Novice Hurdles.
The bumper was a two horse race according to the betting and that's how it turned out with Sir Gerhard making all under a typically canny ride from Rachel Blackmore from the staying on Kilcruit.
Kilcruit definitely doesn't look a Supreme type so that leaves the door open for Sir Gerhard in the Supreme - though he also might want further over obstacles, and is there a chance he goes straight over fences?
Both look the obvious favourites for the two main novice hurdles, though the bookies aren't exactly missing that at around 6/1 - for reference this time last year I got 14/1 on Ferny Hollow and Appreciate It for the Supreme and Ballymore respectively??
The potential fly in the ointment is Journey With Me for the Bob Olinger connections who was super impressive in his point and in his bumper last Friday (the same bumper that Bob Olinger won in 2020).
At 20/1 for the Ballymore he might be worth a punt.
Novice Chases
Appreciate It was hugely impressive in the Supreme but is built like a chaser and has already won a point so I expect Mullins will head down the Arkle route rather than go for the Champion Hurdle.
He's a similar price to Shiskin last year (5/1 best) and although not generous we all know what price Shiskin (and Envoi Allen ) went off this year so it's hard to blame the bookies.
Blue Lord was running a good race until he fell at the last and he makes some Arkle appeal at 33/1 if they go chasing.
Bob Olinger was just as impressive in the Ballymore and could be aimed at the Arkle (20/1) but I expect they will stick to the intermediate trip and go for the Marsh (5/1) - again not a price to get the juices flowing but hard to think he would be any bigger. And like this season I expect the trainers of the real hotpots will have a gentleman's agreement not to take each other on. He could even stay over hurdles and aim at the Champion but with Honeysuckle in the same yard I think that is unlikely.
Champion Hurdle
Unless Appreciate it or Bob Olinger stay over hurdles it should be Honeysuckles to lose - seems to be getting faster with age.
Epatante clearly not at her best the last twice but I fear she may have soured now and maybe the breeding sheds await. If they do keep her going I'd go straight to the Festival with her.
Quixilos won the Triumph well enough but with Tritonic and Zanayhir running lamentably it didn't take much winning.
Champion Chase
A blanket finish this year and many will think Shiskin just has to show up, but at a best price 7/4 I can easily resist.
I know most people will say he isn't a Cheltenham horse (after one run), but although I was against him all this season Chacun Pour Soi would be my idea of the value at 12/1. It took Min a few goes to get the tactics right and win at the Festival and maybe a more positive ride may help him. He travelled and jumped well and didn't' seem to have any obvious issue with the track or the fences other than tiring late on. He has been impressive at Leopardstown and that has a stiff finish, though he usually has the race put the bed well before the furlong pole.
Allaho could be interesting if they dropped him in trip and Energumene has looked very good and may have a part to play.
Ryanair
Arguably the performance of the week by Allaho and he is clearly the one to beat again if in the same form - the 5/1 is fair enough. Chance he may drop in trip but I'd expect Mullins to keep the faith with Chacan. Min is now past it and the others that ran this year don't look good enough. That leaves the Marsh runners but with Envoi Allen falling it wasn't a hot race and Chantry House was workmanlike and may even step up in trip.
Will be interesting to see what they do with Envoi Allen now. Change of stables clearly not ideal so close to the meeting and his demeanour before the start did raise alarm bells. 16/1 is tempting given his previous Festival form but if they get it wrong next time he could be a busted flush.
Stayer Hurdle
An impressive win by Flooring Porter but assuming they stick to hurdles I'll give Thyme Hill (even though it's trained in England
) another chance and 14/1 seems fair.Gold Cup
Terrific performance from Minella Indo who beat the form horses fairly and squarely. Given what Alloha did to the Ryanair field it just goers to show how good a run it was in the RSA when Minella Indo went toe to toe with and then past Alloha until making that juddering error at the last. You'd think Al Boum Photo is maybe just slightly regressing so the front two plus Monkfish seem to be the main contenders.
Monkfish is half the price of the other two, and even Envoi Allen is shorter but has it all to prove before I could back him, and so Minella Indo at 10/1 would be my selection.
Given he seems to love Leopardstown I'd expect A Plus Tard to be aimed at the two big 3m chases at Christmas and February with Minella Indo maybe coming over for the King George (connections were due to run Monalee this year) or doing a similar route to Al Boum Photo.
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Well done Uncle. Hope you had a good one this year.
Saturday morning after Cheltenham is very depressing knowing it’s over for another year. Agree with everything you say. Bookies are being very cautious for 2022 and normally have few antepost bets over this weekend. Only horse that I think is overpriced is Thyme Hill at 14/1. Can’t find anything else at this moment. |
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Some well thought out analysis.
Unfortunately, there are plenty of drawbacks to backing horses early. I got 12/1 Monkfish last year. Top team, high quality form and the size to make a chaser. I don't see anything similar jumping out this year. The bookmakers are getting more and more cautious about the 'exposed' Irish horses. Single figure prices on anything doesn't really appeal to me. Then you have a number of promising horses that didn't run at the Festival. Robcour are building a strong team with the likes of Gerri Colombe and Teahupoo. Would Teahupoo be quick enough for an Arkle? He certainly looks to have the scope. Gerri Colombe you might think Ballymore, but it is difficult when you have an owner like Acheson who pretty much says nothing. I think Latest Exhibition is interesting. If the trainer is frightened by Monkfish what's he going to do next year? Stayers Hurdle? That would be my thinking, but we don't know the thinking that matters. Some of these are not quoted and if you are relatively successful and ask for a quote (even now) it isn't likely to attractive. I will still give it a go. It would be madness backing almost any English horse ante-post. I think Shearer should be a decent staying novice, but you have the added problem of the owner seemingly not realising that Heskin carries a 7-10lb penalty on the big stage. If Bear Ghylls were transferred to Henderson you could easily be looking at a stone better horse. Unfortunately, I think we know that isn't going to happen. With the current trainer/jock combination he is likely to be in big trouble over fences and I would be inclined to target a Stayers Hurdle. |
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w mullins talking today about dropping allaho back to 2 miles.
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I haven't watched Journey For Me's races but just on pedigree Mahler/Bob's Return suggests soft ground stayer to me and I would be against until he produces something of note at shorter trips.
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I thought Honeysuckle and Allaho produced the two standout performances of the week.
Why would you want to complicate matters with Allaho? It was a brutal performance and he seemed to improve a stone. He has to back that up, but I would have thought the only question to be answered is whether you keep Blackmore on board. I would. |
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Thanks to unclepuncle for the round up. The only one I would add is VANILLIER who I thought was exceptional yesterday in the AB and he looks very much like a Chaser to me. Reckon he is a good shout to follow MONKFISH in to the 3m Novice Chase and at 16/1 looks as good an AP bet as any.
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Ferny Hollow has to be included in any AP thinking for 2022. Does anyone know if the plan is Champion Hurdle or novice chasing next year ?
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Bet 365 have put Teahupoo in at 33/1 for the Arkle. Given the risk and options that isn't worth taking.
They stated that due to a trading decision they wouldn't offer a price on Latest Exhibition for the Stayers. It beggars belief. As for Vanillier, yes he was impressive, but it looked a pretty weak race, and you are getting 16/1 with Moore on board as opposed to 12/1 Monkfish who won a very good renewal with Townend on board. Also Vanillier's form prior to the win wasn't anything special. I backed him on a couple of occasions and none of those efforts would have seen him winning a genuine Grade 1. Even if he wins a novice chase you would think he will remain double figures. |
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Thyme Hill overpriced ?
A year out ? Ffs ......it should be double that it getting there ....and the trainer never got there last two festivals? jesus you do come out with them ! |
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due to a trading decision ffs why did they not just offer you evens they would have got more respect.
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Yes, it's bonkers. We are 12 months away and I am guessing. At the moment he is a chaser. Will that go pear-shaped and even if it did would he be good enough? Why would you be so frightened to offer 25/1 plus? They know I am a small punter. I did get him added to the Albert Bartlett market at 66/1. Perhaps they think I have the inside line and this is the penalty? Perhaps they have forgotten that he didn't actually win the Albert Bartlett?
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the days of odds compilers are over differentdrum they are clueless robots just look at the grids in the paper the prices are very very close if not the same 16 runner races or races 12 months away,if you and your mate over a pint priced up any football that day with only 3 possible results you would be different prices.
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First price that I thought was interesting was 16/1 for Energumene, I'd expect to see that if he'd actually raced and got beat by Shishkin, as it is he could still be the real deal.
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Now had a look at Journey To Me's two runs. I don't think I saw anything to change my original thoughts. I doubt very much he has anything like the pace or class of a Bob Olinger.
The big plus was his accurate jumping in the point win. The horse he beat in the bumper was well beaten in the other division of the point. If anything I preferred him as a stamp. De Bromhead now has the second (Upping The Anti) from that first division. I have had a very small bet on Journey To Me at a boosted 33/1 for the Albert Bartlett. A dour test should suit and despite being shorter in the other markets I can't see him going anywhere else. |
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^ Apologies Journey With Me.
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That's most of the meeting sewn up for Robcour with Teahupoo winning the Arkle, Gerri Colombe the Ballymore and Bob Olinger probably the Marsh.
Just on another front given his age how certain is Sir Gerhard to even run over hurdles? |
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Nice write up Uncle , unfortunately its going to be 50s plus or nrnb for next year , and alot more thought involved .....famous last words .
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One race I didn’t look ahead to was the RSA (or whatever it is called now).
Appreciate It and Bob Olinger head the market but I can’t see either of them being aimed at it. The Albert Bartlett looked a weak affair beforehand and while the winner Vanillier won decisively I don’t see him as a future star. The one that jumps off the ante post list to me is Gaillard Du Mesnil. He was well backed but had a thankless task against Bob Olinger yet stayed on well for a clear second best and yet is much longer than Bravemansgame for some unfathomable reason, He had previously stayed on strongly to win the 2m6f Grade 1 novice at the Dublin Festival (with Vanillier 59l behind!). 33/1 is available with B365 but they closed my account years ago so have had to take some boosted 27/1 with Billies. |
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Don't know what race it'll be aimed at but I think Three Stripe Life would be worth keeping onside, he was largely, before and after, over-looked by the masses but his sole bumper win garnered him plenty of plaudits and he was another sufferer behind SG the other day and like I said it was only his second start.
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Followed you in with Gaillard Du Mesnil. He is not a horse I have particularly followed but he should be half those odds. He was outpaced in the Ballymore. If Bob Olinger translates from hurdles to fences and looks like going Marsh I doubt Mullins is going to hit his head against a brick wall. Backed him each-way because I think there is a degree of certainty to this target.
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Agree re potential of Galliard , also think that his jumping in the Ballymore had considerable room for improvement versus the other two , whether thats a +ve or -ve re the RSA am not certain .
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The fly in the ointment for plenty might be the attraction of the Stayers Hurdle . It looks a (very) weak division. That said I think it is easier should it go pear-shaped to go from novice chasing to hurdling rather than the other way around.
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Be amazed if they thought about the stayers unless he really made a mess of chasing.
Besides Thyme Hill is a shoo-in for the Stayers.  |
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Uncle illie stated Appreciate it was a vatour type, that would put him in line for the Marsh and at 7\1 instead of 7\2 might be a better choice but too early for me
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Any early indication on where Envoi Allen is going to be aimed? Gold cup?
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galopin des champs , hosed up in the martin pipe on handicap debut ,a very lightly raced and improving 5 yo ,looks a chaser and was way ahead of his mark last time ,25 /1 for the rsa i have had a little dabble each way ,i know its early but if ya see the bandwagon its too late
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Many horses came out of the festival with greatly enhanced reputations, one of which did not even run.
So what is the plan for Ferny Hollow, is he going to have a season over hurdles or straight chasing now? Mullins will be tasked with plotting both him and AI routes if chasing is the decision and 2 miles for both. |
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I don't think you can read too much into one run over hurdles which was effectively a match. If he is that good I would initially try and win a Grade 1 over hurdles with Ferny Hollow. Not as if Mullins has a Champion Hurdle horse based on the assumption Appreciate It will be going chasing.
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I think where Ferny Hollow goes is key to a lot of ataking plans for 2022. In his last two races he's beaten Appreciate It and Bob Olinger, so he clearly has mega potential. Mullins has AI for the Arkle, and doesn't look to have a Champion Hurdle winner in waiting, but FH would be very inexperienced to go down the champion Hurdle route after just one run as a novice. He also (presumably) needs to fit in around the other Chevely Park horses. Quixilios and Ballyadam may well both go chasing. So might Sir Gerhard as he'll already be 7 next year. I'd love to get an insight into what Mullins and CP are thinking about this horse.
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I think the Mullins Champion Hurdle horse could be Concertista. Didn't quite get the 2.5 miles in the Mares and looks every inch a very good 2m hurdler to me. Am I mad ?
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A non-event
Overhyped horses (santini, champ) Very little competition for Irish horses Can't control Covid (dodgy vaccine) Can't get owners in safely Prizemoney down Leopardstown (xmas), dublin, punchestown far better programme (prizemoney) |
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A bit early to be calling Cheltenham 2022 a non-event imo.
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The most disappointing aspect in all what we saw last week is that through next season in Britain there will be an inclination to simply ignore any perceived decent performance we think we are watching with a view to supporting those horses at the festival.
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Duffy don't be so negative surely Nicholls will find one to ruin the party !!
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The greatest thing about next year
Is that the English will ignore the lessons They got from the Irish and instead of learning from them Will do as they have always done ..... Disraelis splendid isolation with their heads Still up their own backsides |
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irishone - are you ante everything English or just our horses and horse trainers ? Asking for a friend :-)
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I love the English billy .....for dinner
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It seems the potato famine and causes thereof have left irish with a chip on his shoulder.......see what I did there
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i got a lot of good irish friends and find most of the irish good people Duffy,,but same with every race and nation,,always a few idiots
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