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Cheltenham Festival

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Cash Is King
10 Mar 21 11:59
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Date Joined: 21 Apr 09
| Topic/replies: 1,339 | Blogger: Cash Is King's blog
There didn't seem to be a hunter chase thread so I thought I'd start one.

Billaway looks to have improved this season and will be a short price favourite to improve on his second place finish last year when Patrick Mullins gave the leader and eventual winner too much rope. Will presumably be ridden by Paul Townend which is another positive.

Last year's shock 66/1 winner (It Came To Pass) has underperformed in the build up to this race - just as he did in the run up to last year's race - but performs well at Cheltenham and is a better horse on better going. He's currently a 9/1 shot. The only negative is the booking of Richie McLernon to take the ride.

I don't think either of the McManus horses (Staker Wallace & Stand Up and Fight) will be seen at their best over a stamina sapping 3m 2f on the New Course.

At bigger prices, I expect the up and coming 8 yr olds Latenightpass (20/1) and Salvatore (25/1) to run well. Stamina shouldn't be an issue, they've got course form and they seem progressive.

I don't think Koikeeper looks at the "Cheltenham Festival" forum and probably won't see this thread but his opinions on hunter chases are always informative.

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Replies: 32
By:
jokersjow
When: 10 Mar 21 14:31
Am I allowed to reply Cash is King? Grin
By:
nineteen points
When: 10 Mar 21 14:41
i have watched the race over a few times and my thoughts are,the winner was going away at the line,the horse who led a long way could well be a stronger better horse this year as was very inexperienced,i think,and minella rocco was made far too much of too early.plus softer ground would suit.just my thoughts.
By:
strontium
When: 10 Mar 21 15:01
The winner last year bolted up. Looks a huge price for a repeat.
By:
Cash Is King
When: 10 Mar 21 16:51
jokersjow - the more the merrier!

Some big-priced horses often get placed in this race. I think previous course form counts for a lot and chasers that achieved high ratings when racing in their younger days under rules often get over-bet.  Could be different this year given the absence of amateur riders but I suspect it won't be.
By:
HistoricWarwick
When: 10 Mar 21 16:58
It Came To Pass....

I have kept a photo to show my meager £4 on at 224.95 Bfair SP....
By:
Cash Is King
When: 10 Mar 21 23:25
With the benefit of hindsight It Came To Pass shouldn’t have been a 66/1 shot last year but it would be hard to argue that it should’ve been anything shorter than 25/1. Hadn’t realised the Betfair SP was 3x better than SP.

I think my biggest winning bet in the race would be a modest £10 on the Tote in 2001 when Zemsky won at 33/1 SP. Paid out at 67/1. Possibly a fortunate winner because Baby Run tipped up at the second last and looked as if he might’ve made a race of it.

It’s a race I usually like to watch from a spot in the middle of the track overlooking the final fence. Sadly not this year.
By:
strontium
When: 11 Mar 21 09:29
It's a race I like to watch in the bar, couning my winnings on the Gold Cup ;)

Baby Run brings back memories... Little Willie shooting vertically about 20 feet in the air, and the look of horrror on his face...
By:
HistoricWarwick
When: 11 Mar 21 11:34
My first proper job was in Swindon and used to drive via a village called Highworth.  A racing mad lad in accounts at work started telling me about some quirky old chap called Mad John Manners who trained a few hunters in Highworth.  Of course this was after he backed one of his called Killeshin at 100/1 in a hunter somewhere. I always looked out for him whe he had the odd runner as his colours were very distinctive, so Cavalero was no surprise to us when it won back in 2000 ish.
By:
Anyska
When: 11 Mar 21 12:25
im chancing solomn grundy to run into a place, twice behind Billaway his last 2 runs. Billaways jumping was dodgy the last day and having the pros on board levels the playing field
By:
differentdrum
When: 11 Mar 21 17:24
Keen on It Came To Pass for the repeat. Hasn't run on a decent surface since last year. Didn't know the jockey and would have preferred Maxine O'Sullivan again but I suppose it could have been worse. He is a good jumper and you don't need to push the head off him.
By:
HistoricWarwick
When: 12 Mar 21 10:12

Mar 11, 2021 -- 6:25AM, Anyska wrote:


im chancing solomn grundy to run into a place, twice behind Billaway his last 2 runs. Billaways jumping was dodgy the last day and having the pros on board levels the playing field


Solomn Grundy running this afternoon at Gowran.

By:
cobra sam
When: 12 Mar 21 11:31
backed 2 in the race ex nicholls mule Chameron and Red indian....think nicholls got a decent record in the race,,maybe not ,,but that girl who done that challenge got round on one of hes what was placed another time...or is my memory tricking me
By:
strontium
When: 12 Mar 21 11:49
You're right - it was Pacha du Polder. Victoria Pendleton rode it to about 5th. It then won the next two years with an experienced jockey on it. Nicholls has had other winners as well.
By:
Cash Is King
When: 19 Mar 21 14:47
Porlock Bay has been nibbled at and I can see why.
By:
Andymca
When: 19 Mar 21 16:53
Great shout Cash, I was on the fav, but spread the wealth I say
By:
strontium
When: 19 Mar 21 20:32
I think this Festival provied conclusively that the amateur rider-only races are not needed. Hopefully they will all be scrapped going forward. The best amateurs (Mullins, Codd, etc.) will continue to get good rides in many races anyway.
By:
ZEALOT
When: 21 Mar 21 19:59
I was watching the betfair markets closely on Friday and there were many many clues .... porluck was indeed backed very well close to the off .. in the next race there was zilch for Elimay yet stable companion colreevy was backed very steadily in what was a steadily downward trend on the betfair graph . In the finale the fav GENTLEMEN DU MEE was a big drifter , went from about 4.4 out to 7ish very steadily for plenty of years remember correctly but what I remember was a massive chunk for the eventual stablemate and  easy winner GALOPIN DES CHAMPS , I’m sure it was around 14 into around 9 about 2 minutes before the off !!!

The last time I watched these late movers was many years back when ROAD TO RESPECT was smashed late on and hosed in .... and I’m sure on the same day there was 2 well backed late on ( the only 2) in the Martin pipe and they finished 1st and 2nd ... Don Poli and Thomas Crapper , at about 12s and 14s !!!!

THEY KNOW BEFORE THE RACE HAS BEEN RUN .
By:
sageform
When: 22 Mar 21 20:40
Why get rid of amateurs? Where do you think that the top jockeys started? They can't all come through apprentice schools. I would get rid of the conditional race first, then the 4yo handicap hurdle and bring back the 2.5 mile novice handicap chase.
By:
ONTHEBIT
When: 23 Mar 21 00:11
Zealot

The best one was the Triumph Hurdle - Zanahir was 2.3 ish overnight whilst Quizilos was 4.4 overnight. Quixilos smashed all morning to 3.1 just before the off. Zanahir drifts and trades at 2.8/2.88 ish before the off.
Watch the replay and the ride on Zanahir, horse jumping out the jockeys arms 5th last, 4th last, 3rd last, top of the hill jockey gladly lets the 2 on his outside take his position without any effort. Turning in the horse is now in the clear, watch the 4 airshots, then after the last the horse is flying up the backside of the 3 in front without much driving. The horse certainly didn't look tired imho.

Strangest ride of the week for me.
By:
ZEALOT
When: 23 Mar 21 15:39
Onthebit - yes mate I noticed the money for quilixios , I’m sure late on it was backed in to around 3.05 on the exchanges , and the steady drift on Zan . When I started looking it was at 2.52 and has been drifting steadily . I was watching zan during the race but I will watch again closely , tonight actually . 
I reckon you could show a profit just watching the markets each and every year .
By:
ZEALOT
When: 23 Mar 21 17:31
Just watch the re run of the Triumph and yes I agree , a very educational ride on Zanayhir . It’s surely gonna hose up at one one the Spring Festivals ?
By:
ZEALOT
When: 23 Mar 21 17:32
Watched Blush
By:
ONTHEBIT
When: 23 Mar 21 17:59
Yeah Zealot you don't often see one get the kid glove treatment at the festival but that definitely did! Be interested to see where they go next with it. I would definitely fancy it to beat Quixilos if they reoppose. Maybe they will at Aintree or Punchestown. GL.
By:
Quevega06
When: 24 Mar 21 23:59
Zanayhir was far to keen could easily have been due to mot running since Boxong Day
By:
Quevega06
When: 25 Mar 21 00:00
*Boxing
By:
strontium
When: 25 Mar 21 12:28
I didn't say get rid of amateurs, I said get rid of the amateur-only races from the Festival. You only get to play in the Premier League once you've proved your ability - the Festival is supposed to be the pinnacle of the sport. Moreover, the NH Chase and the Hunter Chase are perpetual PR disasters in waiting, while the Kim Muir is an un-needed consolation race for the Ultima. Amateurs can perfect their trade at Stratford and Hexham. If they're good enough, they'll get rides at Cheltenham.
By:
sageform
When: 26 Mar 21 10:38
So you would eliminate Jamie Codd in favour of a 7lb claiming conditional?
By:
strontium
When: 26 Mar 21 11:14
No. If you read my post, it's crystal clear. Codd and his like will continue to get rides on merit.

Whether riders like Codd and Mullins should be classified as amateurs (which they clearly aren't) is a separate issue.
By:
sageform
When: 26 Mar 21 14:24
So you would make all races open to Professionals and any amateur that has the necessary experience with no Festival races confined to amateurs?
By:
strontium
When: 26 Mar 21 17:46
I'd like to, yes. That could certainly be done for the NH Chase and the Kim Muir. Harder, practically speaking, for the Hunter as the qualifying hunter chases/point-to-points are amateur-only races.
By:
strontium
When: 26 Mar 21 17:49
Sorry to follow up my own post. Actually, it wouldn't be too different from what happens now in the Champion Bumper. Pros can't ride in bumpers in Ireland, but plenty of the Irish-based pros ride in the  Champion Bumper. Codd, Mullins, etc. always get rides in the bumper becuase they are fine jockeys and they have relationshsips with some of the horses/trainers.
By:
sageform
When: 27 Mar 21 20:21
But for the old brigade like me, getting rid of amateur races would be like doing away with chases and only having hurdles. They are a fundamental part of racing. If you have amateur licences at all then you need some races confined to amateurs in the same way as you need some races for conditionals but I would change the Martin Pipe as it is a death trap.
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