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Cheltenham Festival

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Hibore
08 Mar 21 12:53
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Date Joined: 23 Jun 07
| Topic/replies: 2,800 | Blogger: Hibore's blog
Spent some time running through the runners last night. The one that stood out to me was ZANZA. A good hurdler who wasn’t beaten that far in the Betfair hurdle he’s improved with every run, second to Allmankind giving him 8lbs at Warwick. He then won in a canter at Newbury off 138. Off his new mark of 145 he was cantering and looking like going best at Cheltenham on the December meeting before falling 3 out. He’s been put away I’d guess with this target in mind, unless anyone knows better. Off 145 still he has a turn around of 18lbs on Sky Pirate next Wednesday against the December race.

Looks like he’s already been found as only 10/1 or 11/1 when much bigger last week. Any views on him or other runners ?
More than one plot of course !

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Replies: 41
By:
GAZO
When: 08 Mar 21 13:14
think pricewise tipped him,must have a chance but in all his races his jumping has been a little iffy,i would be more keen in a smaller field than possibly going to get but you couldnt discount him
By:
Hibore
When: 08 Mar 21 13:22
Just looked at it wasn’t him. But you are right he must have been tipped by someone.

Ts on the handicaps 
Zanzibar 16/1 grand annual

Agree fall not ideal last time but jumped well beforehand and Newbury was good.
By:
HistoricWarwick
When: 08 Mar 21 16:46
The GA has been moved from a Friday to a Wednesday for safety reasons.  Can someone more enlightened than me explain how a 20 runner 2m handicap on the old course is safer than the new course???

Am I the only one assuming a car crash at the second last?
By:
duffy
When: 08 Mar 21 17:08
Plus, it's been a race that's had one of the heavier fatalities record compared to some other races so having it run at the back end of the last day with no-one coming back tomorrow would be a smarter move than having it plonked slap bang in the middle, especially this year with even more eyes on the festival just waiting for something to go wrong.
By:
HistoricWarwick
When: 08 Mar 21 17:11
Agreed - they haven't got the placement of the second last right in years and years - personally I would have left it where it was rather than coming into the home straight.
By:
sageform
When: 09 Mar 21 19:28
Eldorado Allen for me. Zanza was put up on the online preview on the RP site yesterday.
By:
differentdrum
When: 10 Mar 21 09:39
Agree about switching tracks.

I think Segal described Zanza's jumping as usually brilliant the other day. I am inclined to think he needs a new pair of glasses. I went back and watched that Cheltenham race and he is scruffy at virtually every fence. Still a long way from home when he came down as well. Looked a pretty horrible fall. If there was any value in his price that looks to have long gone.
By:
strontium
When: 10 Mar 21 09:53
JOB seems to have a very strong hand in this. I like the profiles of both Embittered and Entoucas, but they've been well found by now. Also has Us and Them and A Wave of the Sea.

Warwick, I agree with what you say about the new course vs. the old. I think the issue is that this was the last race of the Festival for the pro jockeys, and it was being run at a stupid gallop leading to accidents. We can assume the Mares Chase will not be run in that way. In any case, moving this race to Wednesday does make the card superb (probably the best day of racing in the entire calendar, in my view - now they just need to axe the XC ;)).
By:
HistoricWarwick
When: 10 Mar 21 10:31
Strontium - I think we might agree that it being run on the old course won't curtail the gallop.  The old course being slightly less testing but a heck of a lot more taxing in terms of race position will lead to a furious pace. Also, I think it is only recently that the Jockey Club made the GA the last race of the festival really which I can only assume was for the bookies benefit.  They might get lucky but, something handy and a safe jumper outweighs an inexperienced handicap plot for me.  I am on Us and Them.
By:
strontium
When: 10 Mar 21 10:44
Yes, I fear you might be right.

U&T would not be for me at 1 from 17 over fences, and the handicapper hasn't cut him any slack, but JOB is a brillaint plot trainer. Good luck with it :)
By:
Hibore
When: 10 Mar 21 10:56
I think you are.being a bit harsh on Zanza’s jumping DD. He jumped pretty well bar one stutter into the 5th last and the fall was a typical Cheltenham slither on landing. Your right the price has gone now as 9/1 NRNB most places. Looks like Sky Pirate is missing the race looking at the exchange .......
By:
differentdrum
When: 10 Mar 21 11:12
What's O'Neill playing it? Of course not a question that has ever been asked before. Soaring Glory might not be running because the owner can't see it which sounds pitiful and displays scant regard for punters. Is this similar or because of the trainer making a complete mess of the handicapping and pretending he was an Arkle horse? Looking at the current weights he still looks to hold every chance. It has been ominous how he hasn't moved at all in the market so clearly waiting for the cheeky chappie to inflict another wound on punters.
By:
HistoricWarwick
When: 10 Mar 21 11:23
It was obvious where the horse was being pointed at after December which poses the question why run him in Jan and Feb.  He has gone up another 7lb for the Jan win and they must have been thinking possible Arkle by running him in Feb?
By:
differentdrum
When: 10 Mar 21 12:20
Yes, he made a complete horlicks, but no need to spit the dummy out and compound the issue by not running. He should have been put away in a similar way to Zanza. Once he ran at Warwick alarm bells were ringing. Now we know he isn't good enough for an Arkle, so the only option is the Grand Annual, and that is where he should end up with none of this will he won't he nonsense. I sometimes get the impression that O'Neill gets more enjoyment pissing off punters, than training winners.
By:
differentdrum
When: 10 Mar 21 12:42
Sky Pirate left in declarations for the Arkle. It beggars belief. Social runner, instead of a winning chance. Mind you this is the guy who paid 440,000 for a pointer who is still a maiden after five starts.
By:
sageform
When: 10 Mar 21 13:38
What will you say if he wins the Arkle? Thankfully, horses run where the owner and trainer want them to run.
By:
jokersjow
When: 10 Mar 21 14:41
Gone through this one, the standout ones for me are:

1. Eldorado Allen
2. The Shunter

Both have the right profile.
By:
nineteen points
When: 10 Mar 21 14:43
usandthem cliff job for me.think entoucas been laid out for this also.
By:
differentdrum
When: 10 Mar 21 17:25
Sageform, your comment would only make any sense if you were a bookmaker, or you have been mad enough to back him for the Arkle?

This is essentially a punters forum - perhaps the ROA have a forum which would appreciate your comment - and it is punters being shafted by ridiculous running plans that I am interested in. What are you interested in besides being contrary?

I don't need to worry about him winning the Arkle, it is a pointless question.

If all owners made decisions as stupid as this one you could flush the game down the plughole. Thankfully, most don't.
By:
muse
When: 10 Mar 21 23:28
I think Sully Doc AA might run well here.  He is a horse who was still growing and getting stronger when last seen.  If the trainer has improved him further since November - and he is quite capable of doing so without visiting a racecourse - he might plausibly be better than his current mark - only a pound higher than the initial mark he was given when arriving from France 2 years ago.
By:
Ramruma
When: 10 Mar 21 23:42
Wrong course? I'd have thought falls were more likely on the Old Course but we'll see.

Entoucas -- looks to have a great chance but in the last couple of days, the buzz has switched to stablemate Embittered.

The Shunter -- entered in everything bar the Mares Novice Hurdle (well, five Festival races anyway).
By:
Hibore
When: 11 Mar 21 07:56
Someone has hoovered up all the Shunter money overnight so guess he’s going elsewhere.
By:
irishone
When: 11 Mar 21 10:11
The shunter is running for a hundred grand over and above what he picks up for winning at.cheltenham , a very very viable bet...the lighter the weight the better.

So I have backed him nrnb in the paddy power plate because he is so far down the list in the martin pipe and the county.
By:
Hibore
When: 11 Mar 21 10:17
There aren’t many clues where he’s going looking at the exchange prices.
By:
irishone
When: 11 Mar 21 10:23
I took the view that you dont need clues

Nrnb allows you to back him in all five he was entered for
By:
strontium
When: 11 Mar 21 10:43
He picked up a 5 lb penalty for winning at Kelso, which mves him to 39 (I think) on the list for the County - likley to get in.
By:
sageform
When: 11 Mar 21 14:11
different drum, in response to your point, I am certainly not an apologist for bookmakers but neither do I have sympathy for punters if a horse does not run in the race they have chosen for it. I have 2 dead a/p bets but they are my fault, not that of the owners or trainers. I was brought up around horses, have been a small time owner and breeder and see racing as a sport for those who can afford to participate. Punters may fund it indirectly through betting levies but the main funding is from owners so they can run their horse when and where they like, employ useless jockeys or decide to withdraw and go on holiday instead. It is none of our business unless they break the rules of racing. I am not being contrary, that is how most owners would see it.
By:
Andymca
When: 11 Mar 21 15:45
I have to agree. The amount of ante post non runners I have had over the years is shocking, but I have never blamed the owners
By:
HistoricWarwick
When: 17 Mar 21 10:41
Whilst I am sticking with Us and Them in the hope the sharper track suits better than the new course but, I also think Bun Doran could/should run a big race at a price.  I am more interested in his second in this race behind Croco Bay two years ago, the distance, ground and time of year are all positives.
By:
irishone
When: 17 Mar 21 12:18
Agree with you sageform.
The owners are not in it for the betting public.
They vary from breeders who make a lot of money , to enthusiasts who love their horse and the sport.
Why on earth they should let joe public know anything about their horse is beyond me !
Most of them would still be in the "sport" if you took away the bookmakers, the media and the punters.
By:
The Dragon
When: 17 Mar 21 13:44
i like sky pirate and took 23 on here
By:
Anyska
When: 17 Mar 21 13:55
amoola gold is well in the weights to win and form lines are good enough behind first flow and sky pirate
By:
Deptford
When: 17 Mar 21 13:59
Amoola Gold, Sky Pirate, Zanza, tricasts the lot!!
By:
muse
When: 17 Mar 21 14:01
Sully D'Oc going for the plate, for which I managed to get a good bit on at 20s.

That leaves the way clear for Zanza in this, who looks nicely handicapped.
I would also want to keep Bun Doran on side - I can just see him bouncing back here, and he is a big enough price if he does.
By:
FATTIEWHITEYSLOVEADRINK
When: 17 Mar 21 17:12
Sky pirate been unbelievable all season
He’s got **** load to give away love chelts
Big price 16ew
We will soon see
By:
FATTIEWHITEYSLOVEADRINK
When: 17 Mar 21 17:29
Oioioi pirate
By:
irishone
When: 17 Mar 21 17:31
W d the dragon good hit
By:
Deptford
When: 17 Mar 21 17:40
That was lovely, well done winners
By:
differentdrum
When: 17 Mar 21 17:42
Arkle? Thank goodness they made the right decision in the end. Probably the best round of jumping I have seen this week.
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