Cheltenham Festival

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07 Jan 21 10:54
Date Joined: 05 Oct 11
| Topic/replies: 24,773 | Blogger: differentdrum's blog
At the start of the year this horse looked a potential Albert Bartlett candidate. The big worry was the trainer and jockey combination. That still remains the issue. Despite their best efforts to get him beat by dropping him back in trip he remains their only winner this season.

Now they are thinking of going down the handicap hurdle route. Could you imagine any top trainer doing that? He is officially rated 130 but if you take that Warwick bumper run literally he could easily be 150+. You find that out by running him in a Graded race - over a suitable distance of at least 2m4f+.

Shame he wasn't sold.
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Report harry callaghan January 7, 2021 1:25 PM GMT
What top trainer you know wouldn’t exploit a mark of 130 first differentdrum? I don’t get you’re thinking on this one tbh
Report differentdrum January 8, 2021 10:33 AM GMT
How many Graded novice hurdle winners at the Festival have gone down the handicap route? Pretty sure it is hardly any. If you have a genuine Graded horse you don't need to waste runs in handicaps.

Although the track might be a bit sharp the novice Trial at Warwick would seem an obvious race to consider. He did bolt up in his bumper at the track. The meeting is only next week so they wouldn't have long to wait.

I don't think this is about exploiting a mark, more a case of a trainer not knowing what to do with a potentially very good horse.
Report harry callaghan January 8, 2021 9:00 PM GMT

How many Graded novice hurdle winners at the Festival have gone down the handicap route?

Just look at the list of Martin pipe winners, coral cup winners and even county hurdle winners and you will find the answer differendrum...even Betfair hurdle winners...I don’t get you’re argument tbh who wouldn’t try and win a nice pot along the way especially when they get a mark of 130 like this horse and he isn’t proven to be a graded hurdle winner yet...he might be in you’re opinion he isn’t in mine, until he proves it and he will running off of 130 so gives the best chance for the horse to prove it and improve from it
Report Bentring January 8, 2021 9:21 PM GMT
Both of you have the right answer,just different circumstances regarding when and why whose right.
Report differentdrum January 8, 2021 10:47 PM GMT
I don't see the relevance of mentioning Festival handicaps when my point related to Graded novice hurdles. Any novices that take in those races do so because they are not good enough for the Graded novices. 

Of course no horse is proven until he steps into Graded company. You are not going to prove anything in that respect by running off a potentially very favourable mark in a handicap. As for a nice pot - less than £6,000 at Exeter? Is that what you call a nice pot?

It's almost as if you and trainer are saying we might have a potential Graded horse but let's see if he is just a handicapper instead. No reasonable trainer does that.
Report Quevega06 January 8, 2021 11:09 PM GMT
Have to agree with Harry here.. Still plenty of time to go into graded company and as Ruby said on the Road to Cheltenham Graded money is poor in England so another reason to pick up a nice handicap pot
Report differentdrum January 9, 2021 12:52 PM GMT
Contrast Bear Ghylls with Barbados Bucks (rated 131). Clearly Nicholls could have gone down the handicap route in search of £5,000 pots but decided to concede a double penalty instead. He now has a potential Albert Bartlett horse.
Report Quevega06 January 9, 2021 7:12 PM GMT
Bear Ghylls is very keen imo thru his races,don't really see him as an AB horse this moment in time.Could easily progress into a 3 mile plus horse with more experience and time given to settle.. This can come running in steadily run handicaps as opposed to 3/4 runner graded or higher class races
Report Quevega06 January 9, 2021 7:14 PM GMT
In regards to Barbados Bucks he'd need to find another 15 plus lbs to win an AB, don't see the comparison at all two completely different horses.. Each to there own suppose
Report differentdrum January 9, 2021 10:50 PM GMT
What you are saying doesn't make any sense - it will help him settle by running in steadily run handicaps?

He has finished strongly on soft/heavy ground on all his starts giving the impression he would be even better over a longer trip. That impression is now, not in a couple of years time. On quicker ground three miles would probably already be a necessity.

I am struggling to see how you can't see the comparisons. They are two promising staying novice hurdlers rated within a pound of each other, but one is farting about in ordinary handicap hurdles and the other is winning a novice hurdle under a double penalty. The market doesn't agree with your assessment of Barbados Bucks at all. He is effectively second favourite for the Albert Bartlett. The current favourite has won one novice hurdle. That is why horses like Bear Ghylls should be openly targeting the race.
Report differentdrum January 10, 2021 2:57 PM GMT
No surprise shows himself to be way better than 130 and quite possibly much closer to the 150 I floated in the original post. Again he was never stronger than at the finish. Is it the horse that is clumsy or the jockey?

How much better would he be with a top trainer/jockey combination?

Jockey suggested that the Ballymore might be the aim. That's the Ballymore headed up by a short priced Grade 1 winner and no doubt plenty of other Graded Irish horses. As I said earlier the Albert Bartlett is headed by a horse who has won a single novice hurdle. It doesn't take Einstein to work out which would be the (much) easier race to target. If he were in top hands he would now be vying for favouritism for the Albert Bartlett. A Ballymore run on Good to Soft, or even better, would make any jumping problems a far bigger issue.   

After wasting one opportunity he probably has only one chance to answer some more questions before the Festival.
Report irishone January 10, 2021 3:04 PM GMT
Why  ?

Is there another milk cart race somewhere ?
Report Quevega06 January 10, 2021 4:52 PM GMT
Report harry callaghan January 10, 2021 5:27 PM GMT
Glad you popped back on differendrum just to affirm what a good job the trainer is doing with the horse and also that any good trainer will do as much as possible at a shorter trip before trying to get more progression from the horse going up in trip...great stuff
Report sageform January 10, 2021 8:13 PM GMT
Bear Ghylls needs to jump better and he will learn if not over faced. Should win another handicap then they can think of going into better class. Young horses need education and they get it by winning in their own class or lower, not by getting beaten.
Report Quevega06 January 10, 2021 8:20 PM GMT
It does need to improve the jumping which we have all seen, personally I would target him at something like the Martin Pipe.. What we think 6/7 lbs for today's win?
Report cloone river January 10, 2021 8:36 PM GMT
He will probably get  6/7 lbs for today.He should take his chance in the betfair hurdle and then onto cheltenham if he is a graded horse.A fast run race would suit him.
Report differentdrum January 10, 2021 8:59 PM GMT
Chances of him running in handicap next - zero.
Chances of him going up 6/7lbs - zero.

Absolutely clueless. There isn't anything else I can add. It isn't worth the effort.
Report cloone river January 10, 2021 9:23 PM GMT
Entered for a handicap on tuesday differentdrum.Do you think it will be less then 6/7 Lbs?
Report Quevega06 January 11, 2021 12:23 AM GMT
Cloone unfortunately his money is talking with the AB concerned..
Report Quevega06 January 11, 2021 12:25 AM GMT
Needs more experience before jumping into graded company,  looks a really good horse but is still keen and doesn't give hurdles much respect
Report sageform January 11, 2021 11:33 AM GMT
I would guess at 12lb but they may feel lenient as the others finished in a heap.
Report sageform January 11, 2021 11:34 AM GMT
Like several non runners today, he was only entered again in case Exeter was off I would guess.
Report harry callaghan January 11, 2021 12:52 PM GMT
12lbs sageform geez wouldn’t want you handicapping mine. I would say 6lbs would be fair but 8lbs is likely.
Report cloone river January 11, 2021 1:58 PM GMT
He is a non runner for tomorrows handicap hurdle.
Report harry callaghan January 11, 2021 2:33 PM GMT
Differendrum looks like trainer wanted to find a graded race but none upcoming

Bear Ghylls is likely to be tested at Graded level before March's festival, although connections are unsure where his prep run will come.

Martin added: "We couldn't find a Graded race for him so we had to come here. We'll need to find something before Cheltenham."
Report duffy January 11, 2021 2:34 PM GMT
Doesn't look good enough to compete amongst the best novices to me, he's very green and his jumping is clumsy, most disconcerting are that these issues appear worse when the jockey is getting a bit serious toward the end of the race, he kicks the hurdles out of the way. In a big field f top novices I reckon he'd get lost.
Report harry callaghan January 11, 2021 2:51 PM GMT
How do you know he isn’t good enough Duffy? Nicely progressive for me, early days to start putting the nails in the coffin but I suppose you couldn’t have envoi Allen last year to stay a trip, so not an easy man to please

I actually am in agreement with differendrum in regards trip but I disagree about how the horse should be-campaigned as he isn’t slow, however he looks a work in progress to me...very progressive type at this stage and like all novices like him his next run will tell us might find the reason the Bartlett doesn’t seem in the reckoning is because they want to look after him but I couldn’t say whether that would be the right decision or not
Report duffy January 11, 2021 2:59 PM GMT
I don't know it harry, it's an opinionCrazy, nice of you to remember my thoughts on Envoi Allen, I was wrong but I've learned that lesson, where do you reckon Cyrname will go next?
Report harry callaghan January 11, 2021 3:07 PM GMT
Anyone’s guess with cyrname vanquished now I’d say, got a shocking ride but I kind of knew Cobden was talking nonsense before the race...we will see I’d of thought aintree would be his bag later in the season
Report sageform January 12, 2021 8:24 AM GMT
Make your minds up folks! One minute he is a top class horse and then you object to a rating of 142! It is all about opinions and the trainer has not helped by saying she would have preferred a graded race, which suggests she thinks it at least 140+ The bare form suggests about 138 I agree but he flattened several hurdles and won as he liked.
Report irishone January 12, 2021 10:33 AM GMT
Unbelievable non runner at Wetherby

2silk111Bear Ghylls d16 (Incl 7lbs Penalty)11-13 rated 130
Report sageform January 13, 2021 12:36 PM GMT
If you had a horse that might be graded class would you run it twice in 3 days to win another £5000? Very few owners or trainers would do that. Like several others, it was double declared because of inspections at Kempton, Chepstow, Wincanton and Exeter in his case.
Report cloone river January 19, 2021 9:07 PM GMT
He went up 10 lbs to 140.Were next for the Bear?
Report Bentring January 19, 2021 9:24 PM GMT
Report cloone river January 25, 2021 11:37 PM GMT
The BEAR is out on saturday at Cheltenham.Hopefully he will jump better.Should love the going.
Report irishone January 26, 2021 12:49 PM GMT
Who trains him ?
Henderson, Tizzard, Nichols ?
Got to be a Cheltenham winning trainer.....

Miss N Martin of Minehead ?

Jees lads ....clutching at straws ?
Report cloone river January 26, 2021 1:33 PM GMT
Ya if Tizzard was training him he would have won all his races?
Report irishone January 26, 2021 4:46 PM GMT
Miss Martin has had Three winners out of 30 plus attempts

Tizzard might be a better bet.....
Report duffy January 26, 2021 4:56 PM GMT
Someone needs to teach him to jump hurdles, Faugheen got away with it, too early to put him in that category, he might be more like Skippers Cleuch.
Report irishone January 26, 2021 6:18 PM GMT

Report differentdrum March 17, 2021 3:45 PM GMT
I hope they haven't come away thinking great performance.

You have to question trainer and jockey. The Ballymore was the strongest of the three novice hurdles by some distance. Bear Ghylls stayed on stronger than both the second and third indicating stamina is his strong suit. He would have had a winning chance in the Albert Bartlett. A wasted opportunity. I suspect the horse isn't going deliver on his potential unless he is sold.
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