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23 Nov 20 10:16
Date Joined: 23 Jun 07
| Topic/replies: 11,438 | Blogger: Hibore's blog
A notoriously hard race to work out over the last few years. With one winner only debuting a couple of weeks before Cheltenham at Plumpton. So far Quilixios has won easily for Cheverely Park and heads the market at 12/1 although is yet to beat any horses of note. The other horse up in the betting is Duffle Coat who won at Cheltenham at the November meeting. Hard to knock 4/4 wins but looks more of a stayer in the making and might find the Triumph happening a bit too quick come March. Youmdor won nicely on Friday and is obviously highly regarded by Mullins. Finally Henderson has Paros who I own a bit of a leg in. He’s been working very well at home and will be coming out very soon. Hopefully he’ll make up to be a contender if we are lucky. He’s best priced 20/1.

Any thoughts ?
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Report buddeliea November 30, 2020 5:28 PM GMT
I shall be cheering him on Hibore......unless i find one to back against himLaugh
Report impossible123 November 30, 2020 5:28 PM GMT
Good luck 'Hibore'. Let's hope Paros could be another First Bout.
Report Hibore November 30, 2020 5:28 PM GMT
Yes, Zanihyir looked good but I’d like to see him do it against a better field first. The race seemed to fall apart and time was nothing special.
Report impossible123 December 1, 2020 9:58 PM GMT
Zanahiyr has been backed. He's into 5/1 from 8/1. That's very skinny for a race like this one.
Report FOYLESWAR December 2, 2020 8:37 AM GMT
zahiyer has been put up at 6/1 on the up the ante podcast it obv has a lot of followers on there ,that  boat sailed on sunday ,  plenty not shown there hand yet and  atm gordon holds the aces , zahiyer ,quixillios ,duffle coat he may have a few more lurking to come out . 5/1 too short atm considering wpm ,hendo,nichs etcshould have some decent bullets to fire .
Report harry callaghan December 2, 2020 8:48 AM GMT
Have you ever watched such a bookies benefit show as that up the up the ante podcast
Report Ramruma December 2, 2020 11:00 AM GMT
Go on Youtube and there are lots of weekly ante-post podcasts. They've multiplied like preview evenings.

Racing Post Up the Ante.
Racing TV Road to Cheltenham.
Champ TV Road to Cheltenham.
SM Media Road to Cheltenham.
The Finishing Line Cheltenham 2021.
At the Races Off the Fence.
Cheltmental Ante Up.
Blair Whites Blog Chelt...AntePost Update.
Mark Mackay Cheltenham Chat 2021.
Gary Sivs Cheltenham 2021.

Well, you get the picture. And there are more, and even more on the podcast platforms. Maybe they deserve their own thread.
Report harry callaghan December 2, 2020 11:24 AM GMT
Can’t say they interest me ramruna but I can see why racing people like them...
Report ImSoLuckyLucky! December 2, 2020 1:47 PM GMT
Tom is a big supporter
in the weekender

Report Ramruma December 2, 2020 2:16 PM GMT
Zanahiyr feels like Our Conor, except the price is not as good. At 5/1 I'm not breaking my self-imposed ban on ante-post betting.
Report sageform December 12, 2020 1:35 PM GMT
I backed Monmiral before his first run at 32 but as Paul hinted that he might not be a Triumph horse he is still 21 on here. Hoping that an easy win today might change the trainer's mind.
Report sageform December 15, 2020 12:29 PM GMT
Traded out of Monmiral and will wait until the final decs. to back Zanahiyr who looks the best 3yo so far.
Report ashleigh January 9, 2021 10:38 AM GMT
see that J Donnelly has bought French Aseel and sent him to W Mullins, looked very smart on his debut.Cool
Report FOYLESWAR February 26, 2021 7:05 PM GMT
1st bet on this race and just a small bet on w. mullins tax for max each way at 50/1 bet365 makes his debut tommoz at leopardstown , had decent form on the flat in germany and finished a 6lenght 5th in a group 1 at munich ,bought for 200,000 euros for  munir and suede he is a longshot but with the connections could be worth a few sheckles each way before he runs tommoz ,faces the unbeaten teapoohoo tommorow and a win will see his odds shorten ,yes its a bit of a guess and it could be down the swanee before its started but at the odds i have had a small pop ! opinions !
Report irishone February 26, 2021 7:13 PM GMT
Good shout foyles
50\1 ?
You never with W P
(Neither does he)
Report FOYLESWAR February 26, 2021 7:23 PM GMT
yes irishone i seem to recall patrick put up a good word for this one and farout  as 2 exciting juveniles on one of those podcast shows  farout also debuts in  the same race tommoz ,knowing my luck farout will be the buzzer also 50/1 for the triumph but townend rides tax for max if that is anything to go by.
Report Deptford February 26, 2021 7:33 PM GMT
As the field swing in to the home straight, only one horse will be on the bridle, and he will be about 10 in front of the rest of them, oh la la
Report FOYLESWAR February 26, 2021 7:39 PM GMT
just to say wpm won tomorows race  last year with burning victory
Report FOYLESWAR February 26, 2021 7:40 PM GMT
zanihar terry?
Report Deptford February 26, 2021 7:50 PM GMT
French me old mucker
Report FOYLESWAR February 26, 2021 7:53 PM GMT
ah ahseel , yeah could be..........,good luck .
Report Deptford February 26, 2021 8:01 PM GMT
Cheers mate, all on nrnb so far so all good, watch its race again then watch Dark Voyager v Zan, think Voyager gone backwards but 5/2 that  compare to French price?
Report penzance February 26, 2021 8:17 PM GMT
they paid £62k for French Aseel,wonder how much
Donnelly paid for it?
Only a small trainer Holden,thought they might of sold
after Cheltenham.Money talks.
Report Deptford February 27, 2021 2:47 PM GMT
That was very impressive
Report sageform February 27, 2021 2:55 PM GMT
I still think that Elliott has the best hand but Tritonic is very good. Adagio is another decent horse but he had no answer to Duffle Coat who has given weight and a course beating to Adagio and Cabot Cliffs. As DC is at 30/1, I assume he is not going to run? At the moment my 123 are Zanahiyr, Tritonic and Duffle Coat in any order if they run.
Report irishone February 27, 2021 3:13 PM GMT
Dont think the millwall man is wrong here
Report duffy February 27, 2021 4:25 PM GMT
I was worried about the track being too sharp for him, that looked deadly I thought, particularly after the last, have to think that Cheltenham will suit him better, Triumph is looking really strong, French Aseel could be anything too.
Report impossible123 February 27, 2021 4:49 PM GMT
Tritonic looked impressive, but he beat the same horse (further), I agree. As it was how good was the horse he beat? If he'd beaten Adagio in a similar fashion I'd have been very impressed. But, 4/1 with his jumping? I'd look elsewhere eg Quilixious and Duffle Coat or French Aseel.
Report Andymca February 27, 2021 7:11 PM GMT
i agree, he won well but didnt beat anything he didnt beat before
Report duffy February 27, 2021 7:48 PM GMT
You could say the same about Zanahiyr and Saint Sam, you could also say that SS closed the gap the 2nd time they met and were it not for having to switch round the whole field before the last he would have been closer still.

The early impression created by Zanahiyr sees him as favorite still but IMO I was so impressed today that I fancy Tritonic to win.

His first performance seemed to suggest stamina would be his forte but today he showed lots of pace too, he was still keen going to the last and surely a stiffer test will suit him even better as they didn't go quick enough for him today. His jumping isn't the best but I wouldn't say he was poor and the new course will help him in that regard anyway.

That mistake he did make made no difference to him as he immediately snapped back onto the bridle and that was impressive, the 2nd looks to have run his race so the improvement can be measured through him and he had bundles left as he ran loose on the run in, he gives the impression to me that it was just all so easy for him.
Report sageform February 27, 2021 7:52 PM GMT
agree about today duffy but it is hard to get a handle on form with Adagio and Duffle Coat who have both been to Cheltenham and run well. I still think that the best 4yo is Monmiral but he is not running in the Triumph.
Report Deptford February 27, 2021 8:02 PM GMT
When I saw French win I had the same feeling as when Defi won at Chepstow, after today not so confident, that really quickened today
Report Deptford February 27, 2021 8:02 PM GMT
When I saw French win I had the same feeling as when Defi won at Chepstow, after today not so confident, that really quickened today
Report impossible123 February 27, 2021 10:39 PM GMT
The Dovecote 30mins later was run in a faster time. Is that significant?
Report duffy February 28, 2021 3:38 AM GMT
Practically identical times but the dovecote was run at a more even tempo, the adonis was quicker through the early and late parts of the race but steadied through flights 3-6 which the dovecote completed 3 seconds quicker.
Report FOYLESWAR February 28, 2021 8:14 AM GMT
i am not getting too carried away with tritonic ,yes he looked impressive but he may have beaten trees yesterday  ,beat the 2nd again but the 2nd could be bang average ,if i recall solo was all the rage for the triumph after doing similar in the adonis lastyear .
Report buddeliea February 28, 2021 8:22 AM GMT
Visually very impressive.
Less green than his 1st run as would expect, and looks to be a fast improving horse.
High flat rating, and two hurdles in the last mile(i believe) should aid his chances.
Jockey said Cheltenham will suit him better, and hard to argue with that.
All in all, has to have a big chance.
Personally think he wins.
Report irishone February 28, 2021 9:45 AM GMT
I spoke to one ofthe stable lads
He said nasally he was very impressive Laugh
Report Quevega06 February 28, 2021 10:12 AM GMT
It has a Solo look about the race, nothing to work from in terms of form.. Zanahiyr and Qualixos have looked very good
Report buddeliea February 28, 2021 2:14 PM GMT
They have looked good, but imo no better than Tritonic looked yesterday.
Zanahiyr seems to be the stable no 1, and his flat mark was far lower than Tritonic's.
Quilixios seems to be heading to the Boodles.

Pretty sure we can be confident that Tritonic is better than Solo, but we will find out for sure soon.
Report duffy February 28, 2021 2:39 PM GMT
Zanariyr created a big impression on his 2nd run has been all the rage for this race ever since and has a hard core following as a result.

Having said that I would imagine that the majority of his supporters would have thought they would have been looking at his price for the Triumph being something similar to that of Sir Erec's at this point rather than the 5/2 he is freely available at. Even before Tritonic his price has held up really well for the race and it feels at odds with the buzz that surrounds the horse.
Report impossible123 February 28, 2021 6:20 PM GMT
I watched the race again. Boy, was the jumping of Tritonic sketchy? A bit like Champ over fences last season. As such, 'lay' Tritonic - probably a good omen for his backers now.
Report impossible123 February 28, 2021 6:28 PM GMT
Sir Erec was a better Flat performer. He ran 3rd to Stradivarius in the Long Distance Cup at Ascot. Zanahiyr is not bad either. He was 9l behind Galileo Chrome, the winner of the Leger; he can do it from the front or come from off the pace.
Report buddeliea March 1, 2021 6:11 PM GMT
Imp, do you know the respective flat ratings for Zanahiyr and Tritonic?
Report impossible123 March 1, 2021 6:46 PM GMT
I think by as much as 20lbs in favour of Tritonic. However, Tritonic did not win off a mark of 91 though; Zanahiyr ran behind the winner of the Leger Galileo Chrome off a rating of 71 in a 7f race. But, he won rated 82 when upped in trip to 1m 4f (5f further).

Also, there have been many Flat horses running far above their Flat form over sticks.
Report buddeliea March 1, 2021 9:36 PM GMT
Just checking that you knew
Report impossible123 March 1, 2021 9:45 PM GMT
No worries. I'd Zanahiyr at 8.6/1 (boosted); 'lay' off 2x stake money at 3.5. Similarly, Tritonic for stake money too. I fancy Quilixios and Adagio (or Duffle Coat, it he runs).
Report duffy March 2, 2021 3:47 AM GMT
Tritonic a quicker horse than Zanariyr, much as the talk is that Tritonic will be aided by a stamina test and it may be, I'd be more than happy to see this turn into a trappy affair however unlikely as that may be.
Report sageform March 2, 2021 8:22 AM GMT
Flat racing used to be a very significant factor in 4yo hurdles but these days, some of the best ones never ran on the flat. Monmiral is still my idea of the best 4yo hurdler and he has never run on the flat which is probably why Paul Nicholls is looking after him until he jumps a fence. Defi du Seuil did run in 2 low key French flat races but was never really exposed enough to get a rating. Adagio won a modest claimer before coming to David Pipe. Neither Quixilios, Duffle Coat or Teahupoo have ever run in a flat race which makes their progress over hurdles even more remarkable. Tritonic is much more the finished article with 9 flat races behind him.
Report impossible123 March 5, 2021 12:46 PM GMT
French Aseel very weak and matched at 15, no more taker after. Any news anyone?
Report impossible123 March 5, 2021 5:03 PM GMT
Still no news about French Aseel from connections. He's out to 30, but matched at 50. Something truly amiss or sinister market manipulation?
Report Andymca March 5, 2021 6:51 PM GMT
If French Aseel doesn't run and Qualixos goes the Boodles route, then Zanahiyr just needs to turn up to win it.
Report impossible123 March 5, 2021 6:57 PM GMT
Duffle Coat in fashion; Elliot needs two bullets to be sure ie Zanahiyr and Quilixios or Duffle Coat.

There's a whiff of unpleasantness coming from French Aseel's quarter yet not a whisper from connections. Could this be the 1st for a long time market here has got it wrong?
Report Bentring March 5, 2021 7:09 PM GMT
^^are the cheveley park horses back again
Report EUGENE KRABS March 5, 2021 7:43 PM GMT
Skybet and BetFred not quoting French Aseel anymore so I'm guessing its a no go !
Report impossible123 March 5, 2021 7:54 PM GMT
But no news from the stable though. Shameful if he's an absentee here.
Report EUGENE KRABS March 5, 2021 7:59 PM GMT
Agree it was only a couple of days ago WM was talking up the horse on a stable tour podcast
Report EUGENE KRABS March 5, 2021 8:03 PM GMT
However with two high profile firms taking him out their betting and all the shenanigans on here you've got to think the horse isn't lining up !
Report impossible123 March 5, 2021 8:15 PM GMT
French Aseel: I hope it's not related to his no-show against Zanahiyr in the Knight Frank when he was 2nd fav and subsequently withdrawn at the last dec; one of his stablemates deputised. If so, bad pr.
Report Deptford March 5, 2021 8:35 PM GMT
I really fancy French punted nrnb, but if a non its shocking pr.
Report impossible123 March 5, 2021 9:45 PM GMT
A cinfirmed non0-runner. Shame on connections taking so long to confirm. Once again inside info pays dividend from the stable.
Report Deptford March 5, 2021 9:56 PM GMT
Something should be done about this, but we all know fook all will happen, disgraceful.
Report penzance March 5, 2021 10:02 PM GMT
what price he drift to on here
before pulling out?
Report EUGENE KRABS March 5, 2021 10:04 PM GMT
very rarely smoke without fire
Report Deptford March 5, 2021 10:07 PM GMT
The last I saw was 25/1, someone said there was a bit of 50/1, I have just e mailed BHA, I ask everyone to do the same, someone knew.
Report penzance March 5, 2021 10:15 PM GMT
100-£8 on here,then drops to 20-£25
layside 500(£2).
Report impossible123 March 5, 2021 10:15 PM GMT
The Closutton stable is shocking when it comes to repeatedly defrauding punters with late info made public on their non-runners despite a massive drift on The Exchange.

French Aseel was 9 here; drifted and matched at 50 at 17:03. Only confirmed a non-runner at about 21:45 - a near 5hrs to "play" the market by those with inside info.

I hope these defrauders get their comeuppance in their daily lives soonish. Another unsavoury aspect of horse racing.
Report Deptford March 5, 2021 10:17 PM GMT
What chance ITV Racing Or Racing Post asking for details who was laying? About 100/1
Report impossible123 March 5, 2021 10:19 PM GMT
Sorry French Aseel was matched at 15 at 12:46 today. A confirm non-runner at 21:45.
Report Bentring March 6, 2021 9:28 AM GMT
If NRNB what's all the moaning about,sounds if it wasn't
Report Deptford March 6, 2021 9:36 AM GMT
Mug ^
Report impossible123 March 6, 2021 10:18 AM GMT
Punters have yet to forget a similar fraud relating to Vautour and Faugheen and a few others. I think they were looked into but found nothing (conveniently). As such, the same fraud is being perpetrated once again with impunity.
Report Deptford March 6, 2021 10:35 AM GMT
Bentring, its about someone knew it was a nr and lay on here
Report FOYLESWAR March 6, 2021 2:18 PM GMT
there was a notable drift on benie de d  a few days before ,when asked on podcast , fine !  next day nonner !
Report Bentring March 6, 2021 5:29 PM GMT
Don't bet ante post unless NRNB!MUG yes lovely cup of tea at the minute
Report Deptford March 6, 2021 6:54 PM GMT
Bent, if you read earlier I had indulged nrnb, thats not the point, someone knew and it should be looked at, enjoy your cuppa!
Report Bentring March 6, 2021 7:17 PM GMT
Yes read it,and on HR forum but why so uptight'Bent'must touch my make up
Report Deptford March 6, 2021 7:23 PM GMT
Firstly, sorry for calling you a mug, what jars most people is someone knew hours before it was revealed as a nr, it should be looked at but it wont
Report irishone March 6, 2021 7:31 PM GMT
What happens is
The owner gets the call first
I think they deserve that

Good luck to them if they can get some of their dosh back
Report Deptford March 6, 2021 8:14 PM GMT
Not by that way mate, its just plain wrong.
Report Johnny The Guesser March 6, 2021 8:47 PM GMT
It can also be silly to get enticed into a bet at a 'great' price when the person laying almost certainly knows more than you do, or leave back money up at prices that will only get matched if something is amiss - (unless it's backing binocular of course ).
Report impossible123 March 6, 2021 8:55 PM GMT
The episode with French Aseel here is akin to betting in-running streamed from the sun. Those involved are thieving barstewards.
Report GAZO March 6, 2021 9:00 PM GMT
the owner gets the call first,whats he do send the message by carrier pigeon
Report irishone March 6, 2021 9:07 PM GMT
Trainers advertise that they wi
will ring you on a regular basis to keep you informed of your horse’s progress. "We will let you know when your horse is both entered and declared for a race and you can choose whether you’d like to receive your updates via text/email and/or phone." That applies to when he gets injured or is a non runner. Put yerself in an owners shoes, your paying upwards of 1500 a month and your pride and joy aint gonna run..what you going to do once you get the news ?
Report Deptford March 6, 2021 9:24 PM GMT
Not fleece the public!!
Report irishone March 6, 2021 9:34 PM GMT
"Trainers are reminded of the requirement to notify the Racing Calendar Office at Weatherbys of any Non Runners in accordance with the procedures set out in Rule (F)97 and Schedule (F)7 of the Rules of Racing. Non Runners  should be declared on-line using the Racing Administration site, however if you do not have access to the internet, they can be made by phoning 01933 440011.This number will normally be manned from 8.30 a.m. to 4.30 p.m.
Monday to Friday, and from 8.30 a.m. to 1.00 p.m. at weekends and Bank Holidays. Once notification of a Non Runner has been made, it may not be cancelled and the horse will not be permitted to run. "

Thats where the problem lies.
Report penzance March 6, 2021 9:35 PM GMT
doubt  Donnelly needs a bullseye.
Report irishone March 6, 2021 9:52 PM GMT
"Although the majority of owners prefer to leave decisions up to their trainer about where and when their horse will run, it is possible for owners to make entries and declarations themselves."
Report Deptford March 6, 2021 9:55 PM GMT
irish, apart from all the kerfuffle, I thought it was a fooking cert!!!
Report irishone March 6, 2021 9:58 PM GMT
Lydia.hislop ....
Sometimes, as has been the case with similar episodes in the past, communication delays have occurred while the trainer has tried to track down an owner – the person whom, reasonable observers would largely agree, as the bill-payer should be the first to know sensitive information about their own horse.

Ideally, connections would always doubtless prefer the time and space to ascertain exactly what a horse’s problem is, hear the veterinary prognosis and work out what the campaign or career implications are without having to commit themselves in public. But exchanges have both exposed that a problem rarely remains truly confidential and democratised the ability for the grasping to make a few quid from such knowledge – even if some stables are palpably leakier than others.

For the reputation of the sport and to maintain the trust of the punters (on whom its finances so explicitly rely), it would seem sensible to publish a prompt holding statement whenever the potential for a market-affecting development is manifest – even if you don’t yet know the full facts.

However, it is inevitable that each individual will still draw this line differently – whether on how ‘market-affecting’ the development is or how ‘prompt’ should be defined. It’s unlikely always to satisfy everyone. But an obligation to adhere to the general principle would at least be a start. "
Report irishone March 6, 2021 10:01 PM GMT
I had a bet as well
Fortunately nrnb
Its money in the bank mate
The horse is a good un
Report ZEALOT March 6, 2021 10:38 PM GMT
I remember a few years back in 2016 regarding VAUTOUR & YORKHILL .  Vautour had just been beaten by Cue Card in the King George and did tire late on  . Ricci came out later and said V will definitely run in the Gold Cup and if not hes staying in his horsebox and as a result he went out to 9/1 for the Ryanair . The same vibes were coming from the stable regarding Y for the supreme , maybe to avoid Yanworth ???  He went to 9/1 for the Neptune .
I could be mistaken but i am fairly sure that on the Saturday before the Fez V was going in the Ryanair and Y in the Neptune . They both won their races fairly easily , V especially at EVS & 3/1 !!!

Anyway , my point being that those in the know were on the singles and the 99/1 Double whereas others got the crumbs .  I have never backed ante post and never will . I love the Festy like no other but this skulduggery has always existed .
Report sageform March 7, 2021 9:04 AM GMT
Not sure how efficient the system is, but it is illegal for an owner to lay one of his own horses. That does not stop the info leaking out to others of course. Betting on exchanges does involve risk.
Report Andymca March 7, 2021 9:21 AM GMT
Surely the stable staff are also guilty of leaking information. They hear and see everything that happens in their yard.
Report sageform March 7, 2021 12:19 PM GMT
Probably. It was a sacking offence in the old days but I don't know what happens now.
Report impossible123 March 7, 2021 3:39 PM GMT
It's an additional "remuneration" to their measly wage as a stable hand. But, I think it's more likely some entities higher up in the chain as stable hands could be contravening their employment code and liable to sacking, if found out.

Nevertheless, this is fraud.
Report Bentring March 7, 2021 11:59 PM GMT
Deptford no problem,I shouldn't said what was said either but as someone alluded to if it's too good to be true it usually is.
This isn't stable staff laying as they couldn't afford to tie up money for small profit but maybe someone who's been told can but the staff couldn't be getting anything as the profit evolved wouldn't amount to much.
But I could be wrong.
Report irishone March 8, 2021 5:52 PM GMT
Intetesting thing is that French Aseel beat one of D k Welds 22 lengths at leopardstown at christmas. Weld has now run it twice since, last race was finishing well to win. It is entered in the Boodles now , 12/1, but the fact weld is going to send it over is significant hrs won the bumper and a minor handicap here before.
Report irishone March 8, 2021 5:52 PM GMT
Intertesting thing is that French Aseel beat one of D k Welds 22 lengths at leopardstown at christmas. Weld has now run it twice since, last race was finishing well to win. It is entered in the Boodles now , 12/1, but the fact weld is going to send it over is significant hrs won the bumper and a minor handicap here before.
Report Autocue March 19, 2021 10:58 AM GMT
Gordon gets banned for insulting equines by sitting on a dead horse, yet the person laying Adagio at 22/1 gets away scot free. Unless Adagio has been hitting the wrong notes at home that price has to be an anomaly on form. It won the trial over C&D and the only UK grade 1 for juvs. I appreciate the English horses are carp compared to the Irish but 22/1 and 16/1 widely available EW were too tempting.
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