Cheltenham Festival
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Since there's no racing currently, I thought it would be worthwhile looking ahead for some antepost value.
I'm sure most will suggest the isolation has probably went to my head with a selection like this but here goes ....
Master Tommytucker (E/W) - 66/1 in a place, 50/1 and 40/1 in places
Yes, I have just tipped a horse that has fell 3 times in his only 4 starts over fences (two of which at the exact same fence round Kempton).
However, he doesn't appear to be a bad jumper in general and appears to be a lapse in concentration more than anything else (hadn't put a foot wrong prior to his fall last time).
He is a strong traveller in his races and Nicholls has previously said how highly he rates this horse. Frustratingly, the horse simply hasn't put it altogether so far.
There's no denying the horse is clearly fragile given that he is a very lightly raced 9 year old and will be running in open company for the first time next season - which is reflected in his price I suppose.
There's been nothing said so far to suggest he will be sent back over hurdles next season (which you would think must be tempting given how open the staying hurdle division currently is), so hopefully with a summer break, a clear run and plenty of schooling this horse will be running in the better races next season. At 9 year old, time is not on their side so what do they have to lose?
Looking at the race itself, the King George has been small fields in recent years:
2014 - 10 runners (1 Irish runner)
2015 - 9 runners (3 Irish runners)
2016 - 5 runners (0 Irish runners)
2017 - 8 runners (0 Irish runners)
2018 - 10 runners (0 Irish runners)
2019 - 5 runners (1 Irish runner)
When going through the ante post list I was trying to judge the likelihood of the top 10 in the market actually turning up, especially given the lack of Irish contenders in recent years:
Clan Des Obeaux - this is his Gold Cup, going for 3 in a row and Nicholls has stated he will not run at Cheltenham again
Lostintranslation - disappointing in race last year, possible excuses but could be campaigned differently
Champ - hard to know how he will be campaigned, however would imagine this race is a strong possibility
Santini - this is not his track and chances are he will be campaigned the same as last season
Kemboy - Irish raider, complete guess if he would be aimed at the race especially being trained by Mullins
Allaho - Irish raider, complete guess if he would be aimed at the race especially being trained by Mullins
Monalee - Irish raider, complete guess if he would be aimed at the race
Min - Irish raider, complete guess if he would be aimed at the race especially being trained by Mullins
Cyrname - well beaten favourite last year and looks better over middle distance
Topofthegame - missed all of last season and is being aimed at the Ladbrokes Trophy. Is he a likely runner in King George since owners have Clan Des Obeaux?
The King George is a race Nicholls likes to aim his horses at and at 66/1 (most likely bigger available on the exchanges), I believe Master Tommytucker is worth a few quid each way.
Stay safe folks and take it easy!
I'm sure most will suggest the isolation has probably went to my head with a selection like this but here goes ....
Master Tommytucker (E/W) - 66/1 in a place, 50/1 and 40/1 in places
Yes, I have just tipped a horse that has fell 3 times in his only 4 starts over fences (two of which at the exact same fence round Kempton).
However, he doesn't appear to be a bad jumper in general and appears to be a lapse in concentration more than anything else (hadn't put a foot wrong prior to his fall last time).
He is a strong traveller in his races and Nicholls has previously said how highly he rates this horse. Frustratingly, the horse simply hasn't put it altogether so far.
There's no denying the horse is clearly fragile given that he is a very lightly raced 9 year old and will be running in open company for the first time next season - which is reflected in his price I suppose.
There's been nothing said so far to suggest he will be sent back over hurdles next season (which you would think must be tempting given how open the staying hurdle division currently is), so hopefully with a summer break, a clear run and plenty of schooling this horse will be running in the better races next season. At 9 year old, time is not on their side so what do they have to lose?
Looking at the race itself, the King George has been small fields in recent years:
2014 - 10 runners (1 Irish runner)
2015 - 9 runners (3 Irish runners)
2016 - 5 runners (0 Irish runners)
2017 - 8 runners (0 Irish runners)
2018 - 10 runners (0 Irish runners)
2019 - 5 runners (1 Irish runner)
When going through the ante post list I was trying to judge the likelihood of the top 10 in the market actually turning up, especially given the lack of Irish contenders in recent years:
Clan Des Obeaux - this is his Gold Cup, going for 3 in a row and Nicholls has stated he will not run at Cheltenham again
Lostintranslation - disappointing in race last year, possible excuses but could be campaigned differently
Champ - hard to know how he will be campaigned, however would imagine this race is a strong possibility
Santini - this is not his track and chances are he will be campaigned the same as last season
Kemboy - Irish raider, complete guess if he would be aimed at the race especially being trained by Mullins
Allaho - Irish raider, complete guess if he would be aimed at the race especially being trained by Mullins
Monalee - Irish raider, complete guess if he would be aimed at the race
Min - Irish raider, complete guess if he would be aimed at the race especially being trained by Mullins
Cyrname - well beaten favourite last year and looks better over middle distance
Topofthegame - missed all of last season and is being aimed at the Ladbrokes Trophy. Is he a likely runner in King George since owners have Clan Des Obeaux?
The King George is a race Nicholls likes to aim his horses at and at 66/1 (most likely bigger available on the exchanges), I believe Master Tommytucker is worth a few quid each way.
Stay safe folks and take it easy!
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Just realised I've posted this within the 'Cheltenham Festival' section and not 'Ante Post Racing' ... good start, definitely lost the plot!
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i often swim against the tide so to speak and respect for taking a view op , nicholls does seem to hold him in some regard and ya wont have to put much on at that price good luck with it
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The racist impossible turns up again,micro aggressive racism, mr mullins and mr elliot , do not know you, would not want to know you , let alone covid 19..... Lets put them all in the same sentence.... Makes them look really bad.
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You are a prat but that made me laugh
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Typical childness from you hibore.
Meanwhile back to the debate, there are about ten races in the week after christmas worth over one hundred thousand here, only 5 in u k, No, you wont see many Irish trainers over there would you ? |
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I’ve already backed Champ for this with 365. Very likely to be aimed at this and 10/1 seems fair enough.
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What are the 5 irishone?
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I’d be more interested in the prat naming the ten £100,000 open chases in the week after Xmas in Ireland.
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Irish ten are (Going on last year)
Leopardstown Thu, 26th Dec, 2019 Racing Post Novice S'chase (Grade 1) of €100,000 2m 1f Limerick Thu, 26th Dec, 2019 Matchbook Betting Exchange Novice S'chse (Grade 1) of €100,000 2m 3f 160yds Leopardstown Fri, 27th Dec, 2019 Paddy's Rewards Club S'chase (Grade 1) of €125,000 2m 1f Paddy Power Future Champions Novice Hdle (Grade 1) of €100,000 2m Paddy Power S'chase (Grade B) of €200,000 3m 50yds Leopardstown Sat, 28th Dec, 2019 Frank Ward Memorial H'dle (Grade 1) of €100,000 3m Savills S'chase (Grade 1) of €175,000 3m Leopardstown Sun, 29th Dec, 2019 Neville Hotels Novice S'chase (Grade 1) of €100,000 3m Matheson H'dle (Grade 1) of €125,000 2m For this year add the Lyons race at Limerick, they were putting it up to 100k before Covid cant be bothered with whats on over there, i think kempton has three on boxing day , the welsh grand national at chepstow of course .... |
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Might be wrong but I think only
King George Christmas hurdle Welsh national |
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well there you go
whichever way you look at it you wouldn't bother with that ferry over christmas would you ? good news is whatever does go over there must be fit |
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So Kemboy, Allaho, Monalee, Min and Samcro would not come over for the King George as they could be running in 3 Novice chases or 2 Novice hurdles ?
Nice for you to add some hurdles races in as well. Nice touch. The King George is the 2nd biggest level weight high profile chase and worth most money over Xmas. Who remembers who wins a Saville Chase? I can understand going for an easier target if your an Irish trainer. As an owner myself I would go for guaranteed money. Foxy, if Irish is opening the races to anything on four legs. From memory... King George Christmas Hurdle Desert Orchid Kauto Star Welsh National I would also guess that these 5 combined would be more valuable than at the top 5 from Ireland combined. Irish can check that out if he wants. |
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For anyone interested the question was just put to Paul Nicholls during a live Q&A by Harry Denham on Twitter regarding the plan for Master Tommytucker next season ...
"I could see him going to Down Royal for the Intermediate Chase over 2m4f. The race would suit him well, it's for last years novices and there's not many options for him in this country unless they introduced a few more Graduation Chases. He's a talented horse and if he gets it right he'll be okay and to my mind he will definitely have an entry in the King George. Talented but frustrating." |
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Both those two races just fall short hibore I must admit I thought the kauto star.
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Interesting Paterson, not sure why the assistant trainer is using Twitter to ask his boss where the horse is going next season
Definitely talented and we’ve not seen the best of him yet. I’d like to see him run in the Peterborough Chase as his style of running would make him hard to beat with a clear round. |
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These are horses that won both the Seville’s chase before winning a gold cup
Bobsworth Best mate Imperial call Syncronised Denman Other good horses that were 2 nd Florida pearl Waterloo boy Dorans pride Bobsline Best mate War of attrition Beef or salmon It’s not a bad roll of honour hibore |
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King George obviously even stronger roll of honour
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Foxy, Irish is talking Euros. The first two races he mentioned were about £80k only. The Kauto is more than them to start with.
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Just looked at Irish would class Kauto Star as 125,000 using his exchange rates.
Fakir won his €100k race and won €59k Slate house won £57k I know which I would rather bank. |
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That’s correct hibore never give that a thought.
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By the way fakir didn’t win
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Hibore talking absolute cr4pp again
100,000 euro is 80k sterling. ? Clueless You bring £80 k sterling back here , you will be lucky to get E85 ......so thats bollox pal ....and who said anything about chases specifically ? I didnt ? The prizemoney here is far greater than over there, across all NH races |
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I think CDO or Lostintranslation (if he bypasses Betfair) the probable winner.
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No wonder they make jokes about Irish people being thick. You don’t help do you.
Racing Post Novice Chase (Grade 1) (4yo+) 2m1f Yielding 11 fences 1st €59,000 2nd €19,000 3rd €9,000 4th €4,000. Do you want to borrow some fingers and toes to add it up. Not €100k. Ladbrokes Kauto Star Novices' Chase (In Memory Of Nigel Clark) (Grade 1) (Class 1) (4yo+) 3m Soft 18 fences 1st £57,955 2nd £22,375 3rd £11,705 4th £6,335 You think the Irish race is more valuable? ****. |
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No
You really are thick You dont fully read posts That Leopardstown race pays over 100 grand in euros They pay for 5th and 6th....... Shock horror thicket BUT you cant see ....that is not my point. I No Irish trainer would bother with those races Unless they knew they had a very very good chance It is far more likely they will stay at home Because there is better prize money over here During the week after Christmas Even your big meeting New Years day at Cheltenham isnt great prizemoney. |
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Before you call some one a thicket. I would check your facts are right.
No You really are thick You dont fully read posts That Leopardstown race pays over 100 grand in euros They pay for 5th and 6th....... Shock horror thicket THERE WERE ONLY 4 THAT FINISHED AND ONLY 5 RUNNERS TO START WITH AS LAURINA PULLED UP. EXPLAIN HOW 5th AND 6th ARE PAID OUT ?? I’D LOVE TO HEAR THIS FROM THE HORSE RACING ORACLE WHO IS ALWAYS RIGHT. |
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There isnt one meeting here in ireland with less than 100k euro prizemoney in the seven days after xmas,thats all 11 meetings..... so at 90 k sterling it compares to just 8 meetings over 90k in the same time period in the UK
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That is interesting.
Can you answer my question above. |
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Ok i will try to answer it as best I can
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Are you really that thick ?
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I’ll let the rest of the forum make their own judgement who is thick.
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Before they do that Hi Bore , perhaps they might want to judge the facts as well.
So my point was ….. “No Irish trainer would bother with those races Unless they knew they had a very very good chance It is far more likely they will stay at home Because there is better prize money over here During the week after Christmas” FACT 1 - At no point did I mention chases specifically, and at no point did I mention an exchange rate , both of which you accused me of doing. I quoted in Euros, not sterling as you immediately assumed . FACT 2 - You however start by calling me names, acting very childishly and come out with “No wonder they make jokes about Irish people being thick.”…Who is they ? Your mates ? The same as the “we” who were meant to follow your four to back in this years Gold Cup ? . Fact 3 - TOP RACES UK AND IRELAND PRIZE MONEY IN 2019 FOR THE SEVEN DAYS AFTER CHRISTMAS ( 100k IN EUROS ) KEMPTON Ladbrokes King George VI Chase (Grade 1) (Class 1) 4-y-o plus of £250,000.00 . 3m. 1st - £142,375.00 2nd - £53,425.00 3rd - £26,750.00 4th - £13,325.00 5th - £6,700.00 6th - £3,350.00 LEOPARDSTOWN Paddy Power S´chase (Grade B) 5-y-o plus of €200,000.00 . 3m. 50yds. 1st - €110,000.00 2nd - €40,000.00 3rd - €20,000.00 4th - €10,000.00 5th - €6,000.00 6th - €4,000.00 7th - €2,000.00 8th - €2,000.00 9th - €2,000.00 10th - €2,000.00 LEOPARDSTOWN Savills S´chase (Grade 1) 5-y-o plus of €175,000.00 . 3m. 1st - €103,250.00 2nd - €35,000.00 3rd - €17,500.00 4th - €8,750.00 5th - €5,250.00 6th - €3,500.00 CHEPSTOW Coral Welsh Grand National Handicap Chase (Class 1) 4-y-o plus of £150,000.00 . 3m. 6f. 130yds. 1st - £85,425.00 2nd - £32,055.00 3rd - £16,050.00 4th - £7,995.00 5th - £4,020.00 6th - £2,010.00 KEMPTON Ladbrokes Christmas Hurdle (Grade 1) (Class 1) 4-y-o plus of £130,000.00 . 2m. 1st - £74,035.00 2nd - £27,781.00 3rd - £13,910.00 4th - £6,929.00 5th - £3,484.00 6th - £1,742.00 LEOPARDSTOWN Paddy´s Rewards Club S´chase (Grade 1) 5-y-o plus of €125,000.00 . 2m. 1f. 1st - €73,750.00 2nd - €25,000.00 3rd - €12,500.00 4th - €6,250.00 5th - €3,750.00 6th - €2,500.00 LEOPARDSTOWN Matheson H´dle (Grade 1) 4-y-o plus of €125,000.00 . 2m. 1st - €73,750.00 2nd - €25,000.00 3rd - €12,500.00 4th - €6,250.00 5th - €3,750.00 6th - €2,500.00 KEMPTON Ladbrokes Kauto Star Novices´ Chase (Grade 1) (Class 1) 4-y-o plus of £100,000.00 . 3m. 1st - £56,950.00 2nd - £21,370.00 3rd - £10,700.00 4th - £5,330.00 5th - £2,680.00 6th - £1,340.00 LIMERICK Matchbook Betting Exchange Novice S´chse (Grade 1) 4-y-o plus of €100,000.00 . 2m. 3f. 160yds. 1st - €59,000.00 2nd - €20,000.00 3rd - €10,000.00 4th - €5,000.00 5th - €3,000.00 6th - €2,000.00 LEOPARDSTOWN Frank Ward Memorial H´dle (Grade 1) 4-y-o plus of €100,000.00 . 3m. 1st - €59,000.00 2nd - €20,000.00 3rd - €10,000.00 4th - €5,000.00 5th - €3,000.00 6th - €2,000.00 LEOPARDSTOWN Racing Post Novice S´chase (Grade 1) 4-y-o plus of €100,000.00 . 2m. 1f.1st - €59,000.00 2nd - €20,000.00 3rd - €10,000.00 4th - €5,000.00 5th - €3,000.00 6th - €2,000.00 LEOPARDSTOWN Paddy Power Future Champions Novice Hdle (Grade 1) 4-y-o plus of €100,000.00 . 2m. 1st - €59,000.00 2nd - €20,000.00 3rd - €10,000.00 4th - €5,000.00 5th - €3,000.00 6th - €2,000.00 As you can see far more Irish Prizemoney available (well over a million euros) UK only 630k Sterling, about 700k euros , errors and omission accepted …and if you want to go lower feel free…. You will get the same result |
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So now let the forum judge who is the thick **** on here !
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Not mainly about money though is it? The decisions for Mullins and Elliott are:
What is best for the horse? Do I want to be Champion Trainer in Ireland. What is the likely opposition. Plenty of trainers on both sides of the Irish sea seem to think that their Cheltenham or Aintree horses are disadvantaged by travelling over for November of December meetings. I am not sure they are right but that is the prevailing opinion. That is why few high class English horses travel before Punchestown and few Irish ones before March. Nick Richards has been really smart with Simply Ned. 8 runs in Ireland out of his 44 in total and has never been out of the money there. A few other English trainers might take note. |
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Great post
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Clan Des Obeaux should be about 6/4 imo - 11/2 e/w is phenomenal value. Couldn’t back Champ with counterfeit.
If I had anything to do with them then Kemboy and Monalee would be aimed at this as there main season target as they have no chance at Cheltenham, but I expect they will stay at home. |
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Been 'topping up' on Master Tommytucker every night. I think it's a decent shout. I trust Mr Nicholls to work his magic in regards to the jumping aspect. Reminds me of a certain horse called MasterMinded. If he sorts the fencing out he could be a serious weapon to go to battle with. Just have to wait and see.
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i wouldn't be laying clan at 11/2
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clan d o ticks so many boxes and i am a little suprised at his price, should be a bit shorter, maybe the opinions are that he beat a few non stayers last year and cyrname may have also been feeling the effects of his duel with altior . whatever likely to be a small field again and will be targeted at this .proven trip course/trainers record etc. a bit of an underrated horse by some still despite his past record .
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