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Paterson92
23 Apr 20 13:26
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Date Joined: 02 Sep 14
| Topic/replies: 2,803 | Blogger: Paterson92's blog
Since there's no racing currently, I thought it would be worthwhile looking ahead for some antepost value.

I'm sure most will suggest the isolation has probably went to my head with a selection like this but here goes ....

Master Tommytucker (E/W) - 66/1 in a place, 50/1 and 40/1 in places

Yes, I have just tipped a horse that has fell 3 times in his only 4 starts over fences (two of which at the exact same fence round Kempton).

However, he doesn't appear to be a bad jumper in general and appears to be a lapse in concentration more than anything else (hadn't put a foot wrong prior to his fall last time).

He is a strong traveller in his races and Nicholls has previously said how highly he rates this horse. Frustratingly, the horse simply hasn't put it altogether so far.

There's no denying the horse is clearly fragile given that he is a very lightly raced 9 year old and will be running in open company for the first time next season - which is reflected in his price I suppose.

There's been nothing said so far to suggest he will be sent back over hurdles next season (which you would think must be tempting given how open the staying hurdle division currently is), so hopefully with a summer break, a clear run and plenty of schooling this horse will be running in the better races next season. At 9 year old, time is not on their side so what do they have to lose?

Looking at the race itself, the King George has been small fields in recent years:

2014 - 10 runners (1 Irish runner)
2015 - 9 runners (3 Irish runners)
2016 - 5 runners (0 Irish runners)
2017 - 8 runners (0 Irish runners)
2018 - 10 runners (0 Irish runners)
2019 - 5 runners (1 Irish runner)

When going through the ante post list I was trying to judge the likelihood of the top 10 in the market actually turning up, especially given the lack of Irish contenders in recent years:

Clan Des Obeaux - this is his Gold Cup, going for 3 in a row and Nicholls has stated he will not run at Cheltenham again
Lostintranslation - disappointing in race last year, possible excuses but could be campaigned differently
Champ - hard to know how he will be campaigned, however would imagine this race is a strong possibility
Santini - this is not his track and chances are he will be campaigned the same as last season
Kemboy - Irish raider, complete guess if he would be aimed at the race especially being trained by Mullins
Allaho - Irish raider, complete guess if he would be aimed at the race especially being trained by Mullins
Monalee - Irish raider, complete guess if he would be aimed at the race
Min - Irish raider, complete guess if he would be aimed at the race especially being trained by Mullins
Cyrname - well beaten favourite last year and looks better over middle distance
Topofthegame - missed all of last season and is being aimed at the Ladbrokes Trophy. Is he a likely runner in King George since owners have Clan Des Obeaux?

The King George is a race Nicholls likes to aim his horses at and at 66/1 (most likely bigger available on the exchanges), I believe Master Tommytucker is worth a few quid each way.

Stay safe folks and take it easy!
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Report Hibore April 24, 2020 6:57 PM BST
Foxy, Irish is talking Euros. The first two races he mentioned were about £80k only. The Kauto is more than them to start with.
Report Hibore April 24, 2020 7:08 PM BST
Just looked at Irish would class Kauto Star as 125,000 using his exchange rates.

Fakir won his €100k race and won €59k
Slate house won £57k

I know which I would rather bank.
Report foxy April 24, 2020 7:38 PM BST
That’s correct hibore never give that a thought.
Report foxy April 24, 2020 7:40 PM BST
By the way fakir didn’t win
Report irishone April 24, 2020 8:29 PM BST
Hibore talking absolute cr4pp again

100,000 euro is 80k sterling. ? Clueless

You bring £80 k sterling back here , you will be lucky to get E85 ......so thats bollox pal

....and who said anything about chases specifically ? I didnt ?

The prizemoney here is far greater than over there, across all NH races
Report impossible123 April 24, 2020 9:17 PM BST
I think CDO or Lostintranslation (if he bypasses Betfair) the probable winner.
Report Hibore April 24, 2020 9:44 PM BST
No wonder they make jokes about Irish people being thick. You don’t help do you.

Racing Post Novice Chase (Grade 1)
(4yo+) 2m1f Yielding 11 fences
1st €59,000 2nd €19,000 3rd €9,000 4th €4,000.

Do you want to borrow some fingers and toes to add it up. Not €100k.

Ladbrokes Kauto Star Novices' Chase (In Memory Of Nigel Clark) (Grade 1)
(Class 1) (4yo+) 3m Soft 18 fences
1st £57,955 2nd £22,375 3rd £11,705 4th £6,335

You think the Irish race is more valuable?  ****.
Report irishone April 24, 2020 10:29 PM BST
No
You really are thick
You dont fully read posts


That Leopardstown race pays over 100 grand in euros
They pay for 5th and 6th....... Shock horror thicket

BUT you cant see ....that is not my point. I

No Irish trainer would bother with those races
Unless they knew they had a very very good chance
It is far more likely they will stay at home
Because there is better prize money over here
During the week after Christmas

Even your big meeting New Years day at Cheltenham isnt great prizemoney.
Report Hibore April 24, 2020 10:50 PM BST
Before you call some one a thicket. I would check your facts are right.

No
You really are thick
You dont fully read posts


That Leopardstown race pays over 100 grand in euros
They pay for 5th and 6th....... Shock horror thicket


THERE WERE ONLY 4 THAT FINISHED AND ONLY 5 RUNNERS TO START WITH AS LAURINA PULLED UP.

EXPLAIN HOW 5th AND 6th ARE PAID OUT ?? I’D LOVE TO HEAR THIS FROM THE HORSE RACING ORACLE WHO IS ALWAYS RIGHT.
Report irishone April 24, 2020 11:03 PM BST
There isnt one meeting here in ireland with less than 100k euro prizemoney in the seven days after xmas,thats all 11 meetings..... so at 90 k sterling it compares to just 8 meetings over 90k in the same time period in the UK
Report Hibore April 24, 2020 11:10 PM BST
That is interesting.

Can you answer my question above.
Report irishone April 24, 2020 11:20 PM BST
Ok i will try to answer it as best I can
Report irishone April 24, 2020 11:21 PM BST
Are you really that thick ?
Report Hibore April 24, 2020 11:36 PM BST
I’ll let the rest of the forum make their own judgement who is thick.
Report irishone April 25, 2020 9:40 AM BST
Before they do that Hi Bore , perhaps they might want to judge the facts as well.
So my point was …..
“No Irish trainer would bother with those races
Unless they knew they had a very very good chance
It is far more likely they will stay at home
Because there is better prize money over here
During the week after Christmas”
FACT 1 - At no point did I mention chases specifically, and at no point did I mention an exchange rate , both of which you accused me of doing.  I quoted in Euros, not sterling as you immediately assumed .
FACT 2 - You however start by calling me names,  acting very childishly and come out with  “No wonder they make jokes about Irish people being thick.”…Who is they ? Your mates ? The same as the “we” who were meant to follow your four to back in this years Gold Cup ?
.
Fact 3 - TOP RACES  UK AND IRELAND PRIZE MONEY IN 2019 FOR THE SEVEN DAYS AFTER CHRISTMAS  ( 100k IN EUROS )

KEMPTON Ladbrokes King George VI Chase (Grade 1) (Class 1) 4-y-o plus of £250,000.00 . 3m.
1st - £142,375.00 2nd - £53,425.00 3rd - £26,750.00 4th - £13,325.00 5th - £6,700.00 6th - £3,350.00
LEOPARDSTOWN Paddy Power S´chase (Grade B) 5-y-o plus of €200,000.00 . 3m. 50yds.
1st - €110,000.00 2nd - €40,000.00 3rd - €20,000.00 4th - €10,000.00 5th - €6,000.00 6th - €4,000.00 7th - €2,000.00 8th - €2,000.00 9th - €2,000.00 10th - €2,000.00

LEOPARDSTOWN Savills S´chase (Grade 1) 5-y-o plus of €175,000.00 . 3m.
1st - €103,250.00 2nd - €35,000.00 3rd - €17,500.00 4th - €8,750.00 5th - €5,250.00 6th - €3,500.00
CHEPSTOW Coral Welsh Grand National Handicap Chase (Class 1) 4-y-o plus of £150,000.00 . 3m. 6f. 130yds.
1st - £85,425.00 2nd - £32,055.00 3rd - £16,050.00 4th - £7,995.00 5th - £4,020.00 6th - £2,010.00
KEMPTON Ladbrokes Christmas Hurdle (Grade 1) (Class 1) 4-y-o plus of £130,000.00 . 2m.
1st - £74,035.00 2nd - £27,781.00 3rd - £13,910.00 4th - £6,929.00 5th - £3,484.00 6th - £1,742.00
LEOPARDSTOWN Paddy´s Rewards Club S´chase (Grade 1) 5-y-o plus of €125,000.00 . 2m. 1f.
1st - €73,750.00 2nd - €25,000.00 3rd - €12,500.00 4th - €6,250.00 5th - €3,750.00 6th - €2,500.00
LEOPARDSTOWN Matheson H´dle (Grade 1) 4-y-o plus of €125,000.00 . 2m.
1st - €73,750.00 2nd - €25,000.00 3rd - €12,500.00 4th - €6,250.00 5th - €3,750.00 6th - €2,500.00
KEMPTON Ladbrokes Kauto Star Novices´ Chase (Grade 1) (Class 1) 4-y-o plus of £100,000.00 . 3m.
1st - £56,950.00 2nd - £21,370.00 3rd - £10,700.00 4th - £5,330.00 5th - £2,680.00 6th - £1,340.00
LIMERICK Matchbook Betting Exchange Novice S´chse (Grade 1) 4-y-o plus of €100,000.00 . 2m. 3f. 160yds.
1st - €59,000.00 2nd - €20,000.00 3rd - €10,000.00 4th - €5,000.00 5th - €3,000.00 6th - €2,000.00
LEOPARDSTOWN Frank Ward Memorial H´dle (Grade 1) 4-y-o plus of €100,000.00 . 3m.
1st - €59,000.00 2nd - €20,000.00 3rd - €10,000.00 4th - €5,000.00 5th - €3,000.00 6th - €2,000.00
LEOPARDSTOWN Racing Post Novice S´chase (Grade 1) 4-y-o plus of €100,000.00 . 2m. 1f.1st - €59,000.00 2nd - €20,000.00 3rd - €10,000.00 4th - €5,000.00 5th - €3,000.00 6th - €2,000.00
LEOPARDSTOWN Paddy Power Future Champions Novice Hdle (Grade 1) 4-y-o plus of €100,000.00 . 2m.
1st - €59,000.00 2nd - €20,000.00 3rd - €10,000.00 4th - €5,000.00 5th - €3,000.00 6th - €2,000.00
As you can see far more Irish Prizemoney available (well over a million euros) UK only 630k Sterling, about 700k euros  , errors and omission accepted …and if you want to go lower feel free…. You will get the same result
Report irishone April 25, 2020 9:42 AM BST
So now let the forum judge who is the thick **** on here !
Report sageform May 2, 2020 3:11 PM BST
Not mainly about money though is it? The decisions for Mullins and Elliott are:
What is best for the horse?
Do I want to be Champion Trainer in Ireland.
What is the likely opposition.

Plenty of trainers on both sides of the Irish sea seem to think that their Cheltenham or Aintree horses are disadvantaged by travelling over for November of December meetings. I am not sure they are right but that is the prevailing opinion. That is why few high class English horses travel before Punchestown and few Irish ones before March. Nick Richards has been really smart with Simply Ned. 8 runs in Ireland out of his 44 in total and has never been out of the money there. A few other English trainers might take note.
Report irishone May 2, 2020 8:55 PM BST
Great post
Report unclepuncle May 8, 2020 10:16 AM BST
Clan Des Obeaux should be about 6/4 imo - 11/2 e/w is phenomenal value. Couldn’t back Champ with counterfeit.Laugh

If I had anything to do with them then Kemboy and Monalee would be aimed at this as there main season target as they have no chance at Cheltenham, but I expect they will stay at home.
Report FatPunt May 9, 2020 3:48 PM BST
Been 'topping up' on Master Tommytucker every night. I think it's a decent shout. I trust Mr Nicholls to work his magic in regards to the jumping aspect. Reminds me of a certain horse called MasterMinded. If he sorts the fencing out he could be a serious weapon to go to battle with. Just have to wait and see.
Report Howdi May 10, 2020 8:46 AM BST
i wouldn't be laying clan at 11/2
Report FOYLESWAR May 10, 2020 9:09 AM BST
clan d o  ticks so many boxes and i am a little suprised at his price, should be a bit shorter, maybe the opinions are that he beat a few non stayers last year and  cyrname may have also  been feeling the effects of his duel with altior . whatever likely to be a small field again and  will  be targeted at this .proven  trip course/trainers record etc. a bit of an underrated horse by some  still despite his past record .
Report FOYLESWAR May 10, 2020 9:14 AM BST
also had a few quid e.w on the ops tip for the reasons he states .
Report impossible123 May 10, 2020 12:38 PM BST
11/2 for CDO is a stocking price for a two-time winner. Also, the likes of Champ and Santini could find the track a bit sharp; Kemboy another unlikely too knowing Mullins, but the track will suit; possibly same fate awaiting Lostintranslation, if running in the Betfair Chase prior.
Report irishone May 10, 2020 6:41 PM BST
Kempton too tight for champ ?

Thats why henderson was touting him round kelso, wetherby and chepstow before cheltenham ,yeah ?. He has already finished in the frame at kempton, but the danger for henderson is that cheltenham tacky has got to the bottom of his alleged two gold cup entries.
Report GAZO May 10, 2020 7:34 PM BST
that would have been for a warm up race not a grade 1
Report irishone May 10, 2020 8:39 PM BST
Well it didnt matter did it ? He wanted to get a race into him and didnt care if the track was tight or not or the grade was topor bottom.

Henderson is on the back foot with champ, said he was a keen horse one minute and very level headed horse the next. Said he couldnt see him winning towards the last in the rsa. 

only my.opinion but the king george throws up a certain type of galloping stayer. One man, silviniaco conti, teeton mill couldnt handle the festival but round kempton they were different gravy. So champ not for me.

Reports over here about tizzards stable suggest all is not well, they thought they had a decent team for cheltenham but the young tizzard might have fecked up the gallops now. So LIT on the back burner for me.

If you want an each way bet CDO is ok for stake back at least but you might get bigger an irish horse on the day each way. You could have got three places footpad 13\2 last year, but frankly its five years since Ireland sent a decent team over so I wouldnt hold much hope.
Report Hibore May 12, 2020 8:41 AM BST
Irish, is your opinion based that you see Champ more of an out and out stayer who will excel at 3 miles + on a galloping track ? I’m still not sure what the really wants as he’s been effective around 2.5 miles around Newbury showing an impressive turn of foot to win those races. But then looked outpaced in the RSA until his turbo kicked in and he produced a faster final fence to the line than Politologue. I’m also not sure going right handed will suit him..maybe they will try the race at Sandown in Nov to trial him.

The only thing I’m confident about is that he’s got some engine when the jumping holds up.
Report FOYLESWAR May 13, 2020 7:21 PM BST
dont know if he will travel over but real steal run a stormer in the gold cup ,looked like he didnt get home in the end but at 3 m was tanking kemp could suit and a big price 33s
Report impossible123 May 13, 2020 9:35 PM BST
I think if Mullins sends any over it would most likely be Kemboy who seems to prefer right-handed (RH) track; Real Steel ran very well at Cheltenham and also ran a shocker in the Red Mills at Gowran Pk (RH) prior.
Report Hibore May 13, 2020 10:55 PM BST
I’d be surprised if Kemboy rocked up at Kempton. He had run two stellar races at Aintree and Punchestown last year and Mullins aimed at the Saville Chase. I think they will look to get a win under his belt rather than take on the a strong field on Boxing Day. He’s been disappointing for a horse of his ability.

Real Steel ran well in an extremely slowly run race at Cheltenham. Interesting if aimed over 3 mile races this year or dropping back for a Ryanair tilt.
Report FOYLESWAR May 14, 2020 7:20 AM BST
my thoughts also regarding kemboy dont think he will go king george ,willie ran  footpad last year so its possible real steel could turn up ,wont be putting any money down yet but an interesting one if any signals the kg is on the radar.
Report irishone May 14, 2020 9:57 AM BST
Cheltenham Festival foruj with a King George thread ?
Report irishone May 14, 2020 9:58 AM BST
Kemboy only won two of his last three wins around left handed tracks ..... oopppss but then Monalee is not a stayer .........and Found cant win the Arc ....   PMSL  LaughLaughLaughLaugh
Report impossible123 May 14, 2020 1:27 PM BST
On 2nd thought Savills Chase is a more likely option for Kemboy. However, if better ground prevails at right-handed Kempton could bring him this way; Footpad does not seem to be the same horse since his injury, and an unlikely traveller.

My two are CDO and 'Lost' (if he bypasses Betfair); not keen on Champ or Santini for obvious reasons.
Report Hibore May 14, 2020 5:33 PM BST
I don’t think there is anything obvious about Champ Confused

He’s proven over 2.5 to 3 miles with a potent turn of foot. The novices from last year could be same, better or worse than the current protagonists. Time will tell.
Report impossible123 May 14, 2020 6:06 PM BST
I believe until the jumping department of Champ has a radical overhaul the tighter and quicker pace of this race could be his undoing as he does have a habit of making the odd blunder/s at the critical juncture, usually nearer the business end. Could he take in Betfair too? He needs the practice.
Report Hibore May 19, 2020 9:34 PM BST
365 have gone 50/1 for Champ to win both KG and Gold Cup. Worth a few pennies!
Report Hibore June 3, 2020 10:19 AM BST
Sky bet are 66/1 max £20 for Champ KG and Gold Cup double.
Report irishone June 3, 2020 1:36 PM BST
are you on another wind up hibore ?  66/1 ?

bet 365 according to oddschecker offer 10/1 champ in king george, 10/1 champ in gold cup. you get a fiver free bet if you do a ten pound double.


seriously Hibore.... fat jockey is your best bet LaughLaughLaughLaugh
Report Hibore June 3, 2020 2:34 PM BST
As I thought....you are new to betting. Try putting the bet on with two related bets.

If you want a lesson on ante post betting I’ll post how it works Laugh
Report irishone June 3, 2020 6:23 PM BST
Oh i get it now.... thanks LaughLaughLaughLaugh

You are taking 11/2 about champ winning the gold cup after he has won the King George ! Shirley its
unlikely to be too far off that anyways . .....once the irish turn up. TEN  months out and taking 11/2 about a horse winning the gold cup ....at least Percy was 6/1 !  LaughLaughLaughLaugh
Report Hibore June 3, 2020 8:02 PM BST
Glad you understand it now. The purpose of these bets is a bit of fun for a £10 or £20.
Report irishone June 4, 2020 4:24 PM BST
Bit of fun ? ah that's good...thought you were suggesting there for a minute that Champ was as good as the likes of Arkle, Dessie, Best Mate, Kauto Star etc etc etc
Report Hibore June 4, 2020 6:45 PM BST
Have a £10 @ 66/1 = Champ is better than Arkle.

Another classic post from the forum pest.
Report irishone June 5, 2020 9:42 AM BST
Hibore why the insult ? Why twist the words i say ?
Report irishone June 5, 2020 9:43 AM BST
Hibore • May 19, 2020 9:34 PM BST
365 have gone 50/1 for Champ to win both KG and Gold Cup. Worth a few pennies!
Hibore • June 3, 2020 10:19 AM BST
Sky bet are 66/1 max £20 for Champ KG and Gold Cup double.
Report irishone June 5, 2020 9:51 AM BST
To date from memory I think there is about 10/11 horses that have done the double within three months. The four horses I mentioned, arkle , best mate, kauto, dessie were some of those that completed that double. You are putting Champ in that bracket, on the back of what ? just about getting up to win an RSA ? I remember posting a bet up two years ago this month for a horse 6/1 to win just one of those races, and recommending trading out predicting it would be much shorter on the day, as it was. Your response was that I was dreaming. Pot kettle black....
Report Hibore June 5, 2020 12:25 PM BST
Perhaps if you didn’t respond to everyone on here as if they were thick or clueless then you might get some respect. Responding to my post that a horse is 50/1 and 66/1 with 12 x Laugh  very grown up.

If you responded with your last post we could have a sensible conversation.

Strangely enough Percy and Champ have very similar profiles and ratings at this point of their careers. Percy was 6/1 fav and Champ is 14/1 for the Gold Cup so maybe the Irish hype factor is not factored into the prices as it was in 2018.
Report irishone June 5, 2020 1:20 PM BST
I note that you continually make these insinuations on here but never back it up ....the facts are I do not respond to everyone on here as if they are thick or clueless, I never said champ was better than arkle  and I found your "fun" posts very funny  and I am still laughing at them now LaughLaughLaughLaugh
Report Hibore June 5, 2020 2:12 PM BST
I didn’t realise you had your own thread on Antepost.

KevLoaf
KevLoaf 28 May 20 23:14 Joined: 31 May 11 | Topic/replies: 3 | Blogger: KevLoaf's blog
irishone... A quick search and I found amidst your mainly offensive posts, 3 unprovoked digs at the Fat Jockey forum since Cheltenham.

Not sure why and whilst your dislike for our forum seems to be unprovoked and a bit out of the blue, I have no problem with you referring people our way.I have little doubt you know already who I am on there as my username is the same, but keep lurking... I'll be returning the favour from now on!


I think that says it all.....
Report irishone June 5, 2020 5:20 PM BST
One wonders why anyone would start up a thread about me on a forum that I rarely read or post on ? Its nothing to do with the previous posts Hibore is it ?. You constantly raise issues about me that are false. When they are challenged you DEFLECT consistently, coming up with some other accusation or post that is completely irrelevant to the subject . Incidentally doubt Percy was ever 6/1 favourite antepost for the 2019 gold cup.
Report Hibore June 5, 2020 5:47 PM BST
irishone
irishone
Date Joined: 22 Sep 06
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12 Jun 18 09:12 Joined: 22 Sep 06 | Topic/replies: 44,099 | Blogger: irishone's blog
Broken my post cheltenham promise not to bet until jan 1st 2019 . Pat Kelly has one race in mind for this horse according  to those in the know at rossie last night. 6\1 is well worth a punt at this moment in time top up as the others fall away , it wont be 6\1 on the 15th march 2019 and you can still lay it off for profit
Report irishone June 5, 2020 7:42 PM BST
Rarely back favs as you know, would come as no surprise if he was  FAVOURITE at 6/1  but kemboy, cdo and nr were all being touted at the same time as i recall.
Report Hibore June 5, 2020 10:29 PM BST
Amazing you start a thread about backing a horse and you don’t know it’s the favourite. This thread is about the King George so I’ll ignore your petty comments going forward.

Presenting Percy is the 6-1 favourite for the 2019 Cheltenham Gold Cup after running away with the RSA Insurance Novices’ Chase.

Davy Russell oozed confidence on last year’s Pertemps Final Handicap Hurdle winner, and the Pat Kelly-trained seven-year-old, sent off the 5-2 favourite, sprinted up the hill to beat Monalee by seven lengths.

“I have underestimated this horse all along,” admitted the winning jockey. "People have really latched on to him. He's unimpressive to me, but, by God, he's some horse.

"Sometimes you're a fool and sometimes you're a hero, but it all worked out today.

“Pat Kelly - what a master. Nobody recognises the small man, yet he has gone and broke through. He is a brilliant trainer.”
Report Steamship June 8, 2020 12:30 AM BST
Clan will take some beating but for value Slate House at 33/1 I think is value
Report Hibore June 8, 2020 6:48 PM BST
Definitely not without a chance and also brings the OP selection Tommytucker into the argument. Fell away in second part of the season but looked good at Kempton.
Report irishone June 9, 2020 10:54 AM BST
Seriously lads ? Master Tommytucker  66/1 is an insult to betting intelligence. The horse cant jump , he's british bred, and hasn't delivered at the grade in anyway what so ever in his ten years on the planet.
Report FOYLESWAR June 10, 2020 7:41 AM BST
his jumping looked ok untill the falls ,of course its not ideal but nicholls thinks highly of the horse and he would know a decent one more than most . 66/1 is obviously factoring in the jumping , but i think its worth a few quid .have already backed clan des o in doubles with others and  obviously he has a much more solid profile i expect him to go very close again all being well.
Report Hibore June 10, 2020 8:10 AM BST
Irish trying to cause more arguments by dismissing a horse because it’s “British Bred”.
Report irishone June 10, 2020 1:03 PM BST
No I am not. Another false accusation . British Breds have a poor record in  the race,  fact, don't know the exact figures but something like 17 out of last 21 have been won by Irish or French breds , no clue as to why but british breds don't win as much. Can we not have these silly accusations leads to boring confrontations and turns people off the debate !
Report irishone June 10, 2020 1:09 PM BST
https://myracing.com/news/king-george-vi-chase-trends/
14 of the last 16 winners were French (10) or Irish (4) bred
Report Hibore June 10, 2020 2:11 PM BST
British bred horses have won 2 out the last 5. French 2 wins and Irish 1.
Report irishone June 10, 2020 6:10 PM BST
Try googling "probability sampling" Hibore
Report Hibore June 10, 2020 6:56 PM BST
Ok, maybe you need to expand and explain rationale before just saying British Bred is a negative to winning.
Over the last 20 years there have been 12 different winners 6 French, 4 Irish and 2 British. But over the last 40 years there have been 10 French, 7 Irish and 7 British horses that have won the race.
In total the French have won 19 runnings, Irish 9 runnings and British 12 runnings.

Therefore being French bred is a big positive, but being British is not as bIg a negative as your stats show.
I’d rather have a constructive conversation over this as I own shares in a French and an Irish horse so no tub thumping over British bred. I want horses to win.
Report irishone June 11, 2020 10:04 AM BST
Blimey, didn't realise it was that bad,  2  different winners out of 12 in the last 20 years ? That's a bigger negative than the original figures I posted (4/21)
Report Hibore June 11, 2020 12:31 PM BST
It’s definitely a big negative for my fancy Champ with Irish horses only 22.5% in the last 40 years. Let’s hope he can buck the trend.
Report Paterson92 June 19, 2020 10:27 PM BST
Who Dares Wins out to boost the Master Tommytucker form tomorrow at Royal Ascot - currently a short priced favourite to win the Queen Alexandra Stakes haha!

On a serious note, 3 Royal Ascot runners from Alan King so far this week returning 2 winners and a 2nd - unbelievable stuff!
Report FOYLESWAR June 20, 2020 10:12 PM BST
who dares wins the last and kings other runner the 2 yo finished 5th...  3  winners from  from 5 runners takes some doing
Report impossible123 June 21, 2020 8:32 PM BST
And none ridden by Moore - a big plus.
Report irishone June 22, 2020 1:49 PM BST
think what would of happened if Willie or Gordon had bothered their r ses
Report Paterson92 September 27, 2020 10:50 PM BST
Was just watching an interview with Harry Cobden and he advised Master Tommytucker has had a wind op over the summer ... should hopefully win the KG easier now haha!
Report FOYLESWAR September 30, 2020 7:06 PM BST
piece in guardian today p. nicholls "clan des will obviously go king george and real steal could go with him may also cyrname if he proves stamina at down royal over 3 m
Report San Quentin September 30, 2020 8:18 PM BST
"could" and "may" "obviously" key words.
Report Paterson92 October 7, 2020 9:31 PM BST
Master Tommytucker set to make his seasonal reappearance at Newton Abbot this Sunday in a 2m5f Intermediate Chase.
Report FOYLESWAR October 7, 2020 10:35 PM BST
nice one good luck !
Report Paterson92 October 11, 2020 3:04 PM BST
Would have been nice to dream a little longer, but that’s racing!
Report irishone October 13, 2020 8:07 AM BST
To be fair
Might be asking a bit too much too early
Some horses get over
Wind op better than others
Report buddeliea October 18, 2020 3:06 PM BST
Hello all, hope you are all safe and well.

Hoping someone can help?

Placed a bet on Champ to win both KG and Gold Cup @ 50/1,think around April/May time, and stupidly did not note the bookie.
Anyone know which bookies were offering odds on the double, so to save me trawling through my accounts?
Would be much appreciated.
Report willsford October 18, 2020 7:08 PM BST
Budd.. try your 365 account..still 50’s with them..
Report buddeliea October 19, 2020 9:02 AM BST
Cheers Wills, will do.
If i recall correctly i dont think many were doing this bet at that time.
Have a feeling 365,Sky and WH were offering this so will try them first.
Report buddeliea October 19, 2020 10:56 AM BST
Yep,365
Much appreciated Wills, saved me some time.
Report FOYLESWAR October 19, 2020 11:17 AM BST
hi budd glad to see ya back !
Report buddeliea October 19, 2020 4:38 PM BST
Hi Foyles, cheers. Hope alls well with you.
Good to see it all starting again,we all need a tonic right now.......nothing like the NH season to provide that mate.
Report FOYLESWAR October 19, 2020 4:46 PM BST
hey budd theres a rumour that hendo has indicated the savills chase as an xmass target for champ . heard on twitter ,could be just hearsay,
Report FOYLESWAR October 19, 2020 4:48 PM BST
cheers bud yeah ooking forward to it ,had a cracking flat campaign on the ante post  best ever in terms of winnings hope it carries on to the jumps good luck..
Report paulo47 October 19, 2020 4:53 PM BST
Yep Nicky doesnt think Kempton is his track .
Report FOYLESWAR October 19, 2020 5:04 PM BST
365 do a cash out dont know if it applys still but i cashed out of my master tommy tucker bets with no probs after his run last time
Report Hibore October 19, 2020 8:16 PM BST
I’ve cashed out my Champ bets and moved some onto Lostintranslation at 8/1. Paddy is 12/1 Champ I’d I need to reinvest.
Report buddeliea October 20, 2020 8:55 AM BST
Cheers lads.
Well it would be good to see Champ take on the Irish,and would be helpful in gauging the brits and the Irish respective chances in March.
Its only a fun bet, as those sort of bets should be really.
In truth i think a CDO and Santini/ABP double is much more realistic.
Report duffy October 20, 2020 5:07 PM BST
Wouldn't Kempton be a bit sharp and a problem for Champ's jumping, but I suppose you have the price to find out.
Report buddeliea October 21, 2020 9:57 AM BST
Yes Duffy, i think you are more likely right then wrong.
Way i look at these type of bets is that should he run and take to it and win,all of a sudden i have 50 for the Gold Cup on a horse that will be single figures, if not i lose a small amount of cash.
I did a similar thing with Cue Card,cant recall if it was the double or treble,but i ended up with 66 for the Gold Cup off a small outlay,and put me in a good position on the day,which enabled me to punt on some others on the day.
Unfortunately he fell,and Don Cossack i think was the only one that lost me money on the race !! Laugh
Report Paterson92 October 21, 2020 6:42 PM BST
Henderson reporting via his blog that Champ has had a wind-op and also spent with a week with Henrietta Knight trying to brush up his jumping.
Report Paterson92 October 21, 2020 6:43 PM BST
To clarify, Champ spent the week with Henrietta and not Nicky ... don’t want rumours spreading haha!
Report unclepuncle October 31, 2020 10:01 AM GMT
Good to read that De Bromhead is thinking of the KG for Monalee as per my suggestion on page 1.Cool
Have laid off some of my CDO bet and had that stake on Monalee at 20/1.
Now win about the same whichever wins.Happy
Report Paterson92 November 21, 2020 6:30 PM GMT
Much more like it from Master Tommytucker the last twice, particularly today under a fine ride from the front by Sam Twiston Davies. Unfortunately, he’s been taken out of the King George.

Clan Des Obeaux lost nothing in defeat today and as far as I’m concerned, the King George is his to lose. Cyrname was impressive the last day but I’m still not entirely convinced.
Report impossible123 November 21, 2020 8:18 PM GMT
I do not think CDO has had a hard race today.  He travelled well throughout and was not vigorously ridden when his lack of fitness and stamina were evident 1 out. I hope 5 weeks is adequate time for CDO to get over his exertion today. My only reservation is he and Cyrname share the same trainer.
Report buddeliea November 23, 2020 8:02 AM GMT
Of course he had a hard race.
Trying to win over 3m against a horse like BDM at Haydock in heavy ground?
Report harry callaghan November 23, 2020 9:48 AM GMT
I agree budd that was a big effort plus a career best for me as never liked him myself. Anyway he will have to run another career best again but he might and clearly likes it round kempton, his price however makes no appeal. I will say that I do feel Bristol isn’t as good as he once was but was still good enough. Lostintransaton was bitterly disappointing but maybe he just cannot handle that going, he seems an in and out character to me, so wouldn’t know what to expect from him if they even run him
Report buddeliea November 23, 2020 12:22 PM GMT
Well hes clearly suited to Kempton, and if hes recovered well enough he will run a big race again.
Think its advantage Cyrname now though.

As for LIT, not the brightest decision to run him on ground he hates....imo.
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