Cheltenham Festival
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As we have little to do going forward I have decided to look back at the Festival races again. The Arkle was run in quite testing conditions but nothing that horses had not encountered before this season. There were 11 runners aged 5-8. The winner was a 6yo mare with good but not exceptional form that had not run since November 17 when she won in a slightly slower time on the same (Old) course. She had beaten Al Dancer and Rouge Vif that day so the form sort of held up. Fakir D'oudairies is the only 5yo and a close second was a very creditable run from him. Rouge Vif was outpaced and lost a shoe before running on late in third. The next 2 home, Al Dancer and Global Citizen, were both interfered with and hampered by a fall 4 out so can perhaps be awarded 5 lengths for that. The only other finisher, the favourite Notebook had no apparent excuse.
It is also important to note that 4 quite well fancied horses fell which is not unusual in the Arkle. Maire Banrigh and Brewinupastorm both fell 4 out and Cash Back and Esprit du Large 2 out. The last 2 were described as beaten when fell but the ones that fell 4 out were both still in with a chance. That just leaves Our Merlin who was pulled up and well outclassed anyway.
Conclusions:
1. The best horse on the day probably won-just.
2. Fakir Doudariries is almost certainly going the be the best of them next season as he matures. It is only a few years ago that 5yos could claim a big weight allowance.
3. The rest are probably much of a muchness but Notebook must have had a problem to run so far below form.
4. The fall rate confirms my view that short priced favourites (2/1 or less) are very poor value to complete the race without falling or getting hampered and should always be a lay.
It is also important to note that 4 quite well fancied horses fell which is not unusual in the Arkle. Maire Banrigh and Brewinupastorm both fell 4 out and Cash Back and Esprit du Large 2 out. The last 2 were described as beaten when fell but the ones that fell 4 out were both still in with a chance. That just leaves Our Merlin who was pulled up and well outclassed anyway.
Conclusions:
1. The best horse on the day probably won-just.
2. Fakir Doudariries is almost certainly going the be the best of them next season as he matures. It is only a few years ago that 5yos could claim a big weight allowance.
3. The rest are probably much of a muchness but Notebook must have had a problem to run so far below form.
4. The fall rate confirms my view that short priced favourites (2/1 or less) are very poor value to complete the race without falling or getting hampered and should always be a lay.
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Excellent summary, sageform, and not much to disagree with.
I had a big bet on Damcro the day he fell. Looking at the subsequent wind situation, maybe that wasn't so wise even had he stood up. Bit I was sure he was a better horse then than Fakir before that race. But it would have been a good race if he stood up, so Fakir ought to be bang close to top novice class next year. Might pay to be patient with him though - will he really find his best in 2 years? Not a horse I love, but there it is. Secondly, Brewinupastorm, who was high on my list for the race. Would not want to give up on him yet. 3rd and finally Notebook. I had such high hopes for him. Clearly HdB gave the winner a chance, but it is hard to think he thought that was his best chance. He was fizzy the day before down to post; perhaps he didn't take well to the atmosphere. But I am also not giving up on him just yet. God bless all, and lets hope this bloes over without too much more pain, and we get more real races than the virtual Mollington in my head, which is all I have for now. |
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Along with the Albert Bartlett this was the race I was most looking forward to at this seasons festival in the end I was very disappointed both cash back and notebook were very disappointing ,you could make excuses for notebook and there’s every chance he will be even better next season ,4 fallers didn’t help the race I know the fences are there to be jumped ,and without taking anything away from the winner you would have thought with everything else out of the race fakir really ought to have won.
Take care |
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thats twice notebook has run poor at the festival,might not be his course and suspect he might be a force away from the festival,difficult to take any horse out of the race except maybe rouge vif on decent going on a flat track
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Fair point gazo however he went into the ballymore as a 50/1 chance after been placed in maidens at Wexford and Clonmel a decent win from janadil in a tramore maiden and a 2 nd in a weak Thurles grade 3,whereas in the arkle he came into the race on the back of two grade 1 wins ,you may well be right about him not liking Cheltenham he won’t be the first,hopefully he will return next season in the champion chase and then we will know more.
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Surely Notebook needs to win or go close in a couple of decent trials before he could be considered for the C Chase.
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Agree sageform but that at this stage can be his only target just look how this seasons champion chase ended up ,notebook put up 3 very good performances this season yes short of champion chase form but he is in top hands and if his quirks can be sorted out who knows ,as far as I am concerned he is the best 2 mile novice chaser seen this season therefore the natural progression is the route to the champion chase.
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Not a champion chase winner for me.The horse is a big brute. He got a rough ride at Cheltenham and hes a nervous wreck anyway.when he came down the hill he tried to duck outside the field twice , his head carriage was very high. At the second last he got squeezed from a faller and he was squeezed up on the bend. He is only seven, but he showed plenty of ability to jump. This is a german bred gold cup horse in the making , hdb will have him in the ryanair before the gold cup .He loves it soft, and loves a battle when he can see daylight. German bred is the only negative, whats the sire ever done ?. He will pop up at large odds in a big race and I for one will be on, but nor over two miles.
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An interesting post irishone i wasn’t suggesting he would win a champion chase I just think as the highest achieving 2 m novice chaser this season that should be the route,possibly starting in the fortia Chase then the hillyway and see how things are after that,there is a lot of ifs and buts already about the 2021 champion chase.i take your point about the Ryanair that might be more of a realistic level and the fact they ran the horse in the ballymore suggests connections have confidence in the horse getting the trip,breeding is not my game so can’t comment on it,,up until the Irish arkle as far as I know he hadn’t shown signs of his nerves and to be fair it was only really at the tapes in the arkle he got himself in a state,as you say he is a big brute of a horse and an excellent jumper who has by in large a good attitude I would be confident hdb will sort out the quirks ,regarding the gold cup you are showing some imagination there (nothing wrong with imagination)but if you would have said to me war of attrition and kicking king would end up gold cup horses after there arkle runs I would have also suggested you were showing plenty of imagination.whatever the target ends up been he is a very good horse and I hope he proves that next season more importantly I hope we’re all here to see it.
On another note rte radio one did a trip down memory lane this morning at 840 it was the 86 gold cup it’s the first time I have ever heard a commentary other that that of peter O’Sullivan it was very good,they interviewed tony Mullins what I didn’t realise that between aintree and the match with buck house jonjo had a fall and whilst in hospital a nurse saw signs of cancer the rest is history. |
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^^ Notebook got buzzed up on more than one occasion
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Which were the other ones ?
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Dont tell him pike !
try Leopardstown and Punchestown foxy, he took off one day at leopardstown which merited the race comment "keen to post". |
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I knew he did at leopardstown hadn’t realised he did it at punchestown which occasion?
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Eve meeting last year
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Against gardens of Babylon I don’t stay for the Friday no mention of it in my form books but that’s not to say it didn’t happen.see if the summer can settle him down .
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Against gardens of Babylon I don’t stay for the Friday no mention of it in my form books but that’s not to say it didn’t happen.see if the summer can settle him down .
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Notebook wasnt having kennedy on the way down, rachel was replaced, he turned at the start and the bunch came up behind him, tossing his head about in the air, balooned half the flights and no chance with winner, j p s horse won it well .
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On hurdles form he wasn’t entitled to beat gardens of Babylon
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Just watched the race again from what I saw he gave the first a bit of air then jumped the other 8 well some really well.
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Yeah agree kennedy settled him well, but watching notebook taking the dips and slopes of punchestown was definitely a clue as to how he might run at Cheltenham.
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I felt over hurdles he gave them plenty of air and see no change in his method over fences. He is an outstanding jumper no doubt .
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He has won twice at punchestown
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Some horses don't react well to long distance travel. I had a small interest in Notebook at Chelts when he went to 9/4 but would not back him again outside of his local tracks in Ireland. Fakir D'oudairies is the only runner that I would see as a viable Champion chase horse in the future.
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Agree 100%
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I dont see any reason why Fakir would reverse form with the mare. She looks like one that has a lot of maturing to do physically and looked to be idling up the run in until the loose horse passed her. The arkle was run 2 seconds faster on worse ground too if you are into times. I woild give both of them an ew shot if they arrive in the CC next year
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5yos typically improve by 5-7lb with an extra year. The age allowance in the Arkle used to be 10lb! That was too much but it should certainly not be zero.
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