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Cheltenham Festival

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FOYLESWAR
28 Dec 19 11:41
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Date Joined: 09 Jan 11
| Topic/replies: 33,867 | Blogger: FOYLESWAR's blog
after throwing a few wayward darts at the gold cup so far one who i am starting to take interest in is gordons delta work who was a decent novice last season and after  a good 3rd btn under 3l to topothegame and santini in the rsa  he then went to the  punchestown festival   and won the grade 1 3m nov chase there ,his 3rd at  down royal chase this season was at 1st a bit of a let down but does not too bad now with the 2nd winning a king george . on the face of it he looks to have a mountain to climb but   its all about 1 race and thats the gold cup in march  . he runs today in the savills at leopardstown today and a good run is all that i am looking for a bit of a forgotten horse but a decent price around 25/1 shops  and i have had some of that  and not hard to expect improvement  on ratings he has a fair bit to find but whos to say he cant or wont . opinions and input encouraged .

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Replies: 65
By:
paulo47
When: 28 Dec 19 12:36
Agree , just hope he is allowed a view of his fences , unlike Down Royal .
By:
buddeliea
When: 28 Dec 19 14:05
Went in again yesterday so hope you are correct!!
By:
buddeliea
When: 28 Dec 19 15:25
Nice !!!
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 28 Dec 19 16:28
havent seen the race yet just got home ,that will do tho!
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 28 Dec 19 16:30
sorry have seen the result not yet seen the race ^^^
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 28 Dec 19 16:51
just watched from the turn in and delta approached the last in about 5th and  finished hard to the line from  the last youd have to think on that run the extra dist should suit .elliot said he missed some work after down royal  we thought he would need the race and we would have been happy with 3r or 4th pre race .or words to that effect .
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 28 Dec 19 17:43
some crabbing the race ! it looked a decent performance to me ,others will improve as well kemboy ,percy etc road to respect made his move before delta but delta reversed  the form from down royal . what it does show is that he can jump and stays and  mix it with some of the best .
By:
buddeliea
When: 29 Dec 19 07:35
Think connections of Santini would have taken comfort from that today.
It proved for me that last years RSA horses are up to the challenge of a Gold Cup.
It also showed how open this years race is at this moment,and all those who finished close up are all in with a shout,although I suspect RTR and Monalee will either not show up or fail to stay well enough.
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 02 Feb 20 15:41
gotta be happy with that !
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 02 Feb 20 15:49
gold cup looking a cracker ,delta had a hard race but elliot said he thrives on racing . all to play for !
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 02 Feb 20 15:56
wonder what rating for delta after that
By:
Hibore
When: 02 Feb 20 16:23
171 or 172 I’d guess.

Probably use Percy as guide. Kemboy probably 174 (drop 3lbs)
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 02 Feb 20 16:24
delta into 6 on here now . very competitive gold cup as it stands.
By:
duffy
When: 04 Feb 20 13:42
I think there still is a question as to whether a thorough test of stamina is what this horse needs, I go back to his beating of LR over 2.4 on good ground with the two pulling clear after bungling the last, if he goes on to win the GC then of course he'd be a really special horse indeed.
By:
irishone
When: 04 Feb 20 13:57
Worried about him now, 
we are looking for three solid performances
at the highest level
in less than 80 days .
well if he makes it
Deffo superstar.....
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 04 Feb 20 14:34
gordon said he thrives on racing ! also said he probably went too soon in the rsa , personaly  id be more concerned who will be riding delta work
By:
duffy
When: 04 Feb 20 15:21
I don't think Russell would get off of PP, not perhaps because he thinks PP is necessarily the best chance but out of loyalty and remember it wasn't so long ago when Russell was persona non grata with Gigginstown and they were freezing him out before they had clear the air talks. However if the really want him and they start putting the screws on him regarding going forward Tiger Roll et al he might feel he has no option.
By:
miltons sophie
When: 04 Feb 20 16:50
I agree with Irish I see his main vulnerability being beaten by best mate sorry I mean ABP (I apologise for putting words in your mouth Irish  but ABP is the obvious contrast) Before the IGC GE was adamant the race would bring him on. For those not on (and we have all been there) you have two choices 1) convince yourself the reason you aren’t is still justified so you don’t keep beating yourself up or 2) beat yourself up. Self preservation normally leads us to go with option 1. I always go for option 2 which is why I am constantly black and blue.

I have all sorts of multiples including 3 GC horses all of which are at significantly bigger prices than now. None of them are ABP. I knew ABP would have the softest prep in the hope others would burn themselves out and I still didn’t include him so come Friday evening I could be black and blue all over.
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 04 Feb 20 18:16
delta work raised to 171 from 169....kemboy down to 175 from 178 ....percy down to 166 from 167.....after sundays race .
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 04 Feb 20 18:27
kemboy 175 from 177 ^^^^^^
By:
paulo47
When: 04 Feb 20 18:28
Agreed Foyles ,thought Kennedy was brilliant in both his last two races , always jumped him with a clear fence line . Its not certain to happen in the hurly burly at Cheltenham , where going wide may or may not be a sensible option depending on the ground , and another jockey wont make it any easier .
By:
Hibore
When: 04 Feb 20 18:29
Yep, that’s about right. Same as Santini now.

You could argue that ABP and Kemboy form (and Gold cup) has now been surpassed by the younger brigade of the RSA.

If you could have Santini and Delta OR Kemboy and ABP coupled which would you choose? I’m all in on S & D.
By:
penzance
When: 04 Feb 20 18:49
Kemboy and Al Boum Photo.
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 04 Feb 20 19:22
for me it would be delta and santini ,bias aside both are on an upward curve and possibly/probably still improving ,santini a lazy type who seems to do enough to get the job done the type who is not going to win 20 lengths on the bridle even against inferior  opposition as shown on this seasons debut, a fair few think he may be outpaced at some stage in the gold cup  but that wasnt the case in the rsa where he was up there most of the way and at the finish .
delta work also progressing and travels well in races won the 2 biggest grade 1 chases in ireland  both santini and delta  are bona fida contenders and wouldnt be the biggest suprise to  hard to see these 2 improve another 5-7 pounds at least which puts them bang there .

al boum photo been there done it and has had a nice quiet prep but  as history shows winning back to back gold cups is not easy .

kemboy has every chance and not a lot to find but just wonder if he has as much improvement in him as the younger ones .

not that long to wait to find out anyway good luck lets hope they all get there .
By:
penzance
When: 04 Feb 20 19:42
would be some race if they all showed
and stood up,no hard luck stories.
By:
impossible123
When: 04 Feb 20 22:00
Using Presenting Percy (PP) as a yardstick Delta Work (DW) beat the former 0.75l further in the Irish Gold Cup than in the Savills Chase. Similarly, Delta Work beat Kemboy (K) 2l less in the Irish Gold Cup than in The Savills Chase. What can one deduce from these two observations? In the Savills Chase Kemboy was 0.5l infront of Presenting Percy; Kemboy was 3.25l infront of Presenting Percy in the Irish Gold Cup.

From the above (using PP as the yardstick) DW improved a mere 0.75l, and K 2.75l; K improved by 2l against DW, and 2.75 against PP despite jumping sketchily on sticky ground. As such does DW warrant a price contraction of 50%? And, could K improve another 1.5l jumping better on good (non-sticky) ground to dead-heat with DW?
By:
Hibore
When: 04 Feb 20 22:20
Another possible scenario using Percy is that he’s just a 160 odd horse now and that Kemboy and Delta Work are mid 165 horses at best.

It’s not such wild thinking when you throw Monalee into the mix from the Saville.
By:
irishone
When: 04 Feb 20 22:35
Your ratings go in the bin if one of them treads on a stone getting in or out of the box . All this hype and pontificating aint worth a toss as ABP showed you all last year. The going is crucial, as NR showed you the year before. Try making a case for a big outsider , twenty to one plus crops up every seven years , if you are going to start guessing make it worth your while .lol ExcitedLaughLaughLaughLaugh
By:
Hibore
When: 04 Feb 20 22:50
Irish must be on Percy watch tonight. Laugh
By:
impossible123
When: 04 Feb 20 22:55
Using BDM as a yardstick ABP beat the former at Cheltenham by 6.25l (not BDM fav track); Santini beat BDM 3.5l (1f shorter/same track); Lostintranslation 1.5l (Haydock/1f shorter/BDM fav track).

Comparing the above 2 scenarios using Presenting Percy and BDM as yardsticks I'd give more credence to the victories of Santini and Lostintranslation (both over BDM) than Delta Work (only improved by 0.75l and Monalee) over Presenting Percy; ABP is inconclusive as the principals in 2019 Gold Cup either underperformed or fell/the 2nd was pants. Also, ABP was comprehensively beaten by Kemboy (last season) who to me was not stopping in the Irish Gold Cup last weekend either.

Unless Kemboy gets his ground, and jumps better I believe the English horses may have the upperhand, but which one, Santini or Lostintranslation?
By:
buddeliea
When: 05 Feb 20 07:46
Its all inconclusive as regards the Gold Cup.
A different day,diffrent distance,different course,and unknown ground.

Good luck though!!
By:
buddeliea
When: 05 Feb 20 07:50
Love the way LIT runs badly,Kemboy gets beaten....twice by DW,yet those two are in your shortlist.
The horse that beat Kemboy twice and now has the best form this season is totally ignored!!

Certainly not my way of looking at it.
By:
miltons sophie
When: 05 Feb 20 08:08
Irish.... I made the point days ago that the GC is frequently won by horses that are not top rated and last year ABP was joint ninth top rated I think. It happens frequently. Surprise surprise nobody responded. Hey let’s not let the facts get in the way of a good story. How about we don’t bother with the real race this year and just have a virtual version using impossibles slide rule to determine the winner and then we can all concentrate on the other races.

For me there are a number of potential winners. Very few now represent value and it will now come down to the combination of variables on the day none of which we know.
By:
impossible123
When: 05 Feb 20 09:35
Delta Work is anything, but ignored. Has the best form? I'm sceptical.

Delta Work beat Presenting Percy (who'd had a run prior 1st time around) in the Irish Gold Cup by a mere 0.75l greater; beat a fitter Kemboy (but) jumping sketchily on sticky ground (the incessant watering) by a lesser margin of 2l than previous - Kemboy was 2.75l further ahead though of Presenting Percy in the Irish Gold Cup than Savills Chase.

Assuming all things being equal eg Delta Work has improved, Presenting Percy ran to form, and Kemboy was fitter (but) negated by sketchy jumping and deterioration in ground condition (thro' observation) one can fairly and accurately deduce Kemboy made the most progress of the 3 since the Savills Chase eg lesser margin of defeat by Delta Work, and further ahead of Presenting Percy. 2ndly, Delta Work improved by a mere 0.75l against Presenting Percy. 

And, Monaleee?????

Lostinstralion beat a Haydock specialist BDM who trounced Cue Card in the same race 2 years prior convincingly; ran 2nd (2x) to Defi Du Seuil over a shorter distance; only ran in the King George for that £1m bonus.

Santini beat BDM at Cheltenham (workmanlike manner); improved a lot since his 1st outing; ran very well in The RSA and finished ahead of Delta Work after a troubled prep. BDM was possibly too fresh when 3rd behind ABP (where the main protagonists underperformed or fell) in last year's Gold Cup after Kempton at x'mas.

Once again as always horse racing is mainly opinions and interpretations.
By:
buddeliea
When: 05 Feb 20 12:04
Yeh, we all have our ways at looking at things,form etc

Wish you well
By:
nocturnal
When: 06 Feb 20 00:35
Budd ...... Sit back and relax Wink

Yet another thread trying to be hijacked with utter bullsh!t.

From the 2018 / 2019 RSA Thread  31st dec 2018

"Delta Work.............Different Angle

Kemboy  6yr old   6m 6.5 secs

Delta Work  5yr old  6m 2.3 secs

Same weight
Same ground
Same distance
Same amount fences

Add in your jumping analysis,and the fact he was hampered on the first circuit.

Then think of him beating Kemboy by 4.2 secs in the savills.

His performance on 29th December 2018,for a novice,can be summed up in one word.

Sensational."


Delta Work has not improved.

The potential has been there for two seasons.

Every horse needs to mature,at all levels,very few will ever get to compete in the Blue Riband.

Everything points to this horse only now beginning to fulfill that potential.

Quite rightly,he,s a big player come the 13th March.
By:
impossible123
When: 06 Feb 20 09:38
Has Kemboy improved since The Savills Chase? He finished closer to Delta Work and further in front of Presenting Percy in The Irish Gold Cup despite jumping sketchily on sticking ground? If so, could Kemboy turn the table in The Gold Cup day on better ground and better jumping?
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 06 Feb 20 09:51
yeah but no reason why a 2nd season chaser like delta work who looks to be on a steep upward curve shouldnt improve further also ^
By:
impossible123
When: 06 Feb 20 10:42
On a line with Presenting Percy whether Delta Work is on a steep upward curve is questionable, in my opinion. Even Kemboy finished 2l closer to him than in The Savills Chase despite unfavourable ground (incessant watering) and sketchy jumping.

Delta Work has improved (which I agree) - two successive good races and good jumping. But, his 1st run was awful. He still needs to improve sufficiently to surpass Santini on their RSA form. Then there's Lostintranslation who ran a stormer against BDM at Haydock. To me this was the most striking performance from all the above mentioned Gold Cup protagonists (if one could discount his King George run).
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