Cheltenham Festival
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just a brief write up not going through all the runners but one who sticks to me out and is a price and with the right connections is BURROWS SAINT a good winner of the irish grand national and on an upward curve last season . a decent hurdler it wasnt untill sent over fences that he started to show a lot of improvement and after a decent 4th 20l behind arkle winner duc de generes over a trip to short he was stepped up and won his next 2 races and went off a well backed fav for the irish gn at fairyhouse, travelling and jumping well he ran out a good winner ,soft ground will suit and a staying trip obv suits rated 156 if he can continue on the upward curve he could be a bit of value for the gold cup at 50/1 with billys .
selection gold cup ......burrows saint 50/1 1 point each way ..............opinions welcome !
selection gold cup ......burrows saint 50/1 1 point each way ..............opinions welcome !
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entered for the drinmore on sunday
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last day as a novice
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yes ^
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obviously needs to find around a stone on the ratings but not out of the question has at least 4 big pluses, the right trainer ,stays and travels and proggressive . lets see how it pans out .
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Ok I’ll bite Foyles.
I’m not convinced he’s a GC horse, but given there are question marks over a lot of the main players; PP still yet to be seen after last years disastrous campaign, Delta ran too bad to be true (surely something was amiss?), Santini less than impressive, others there are doubts about. Cyrname, not for me, nor Clan, Native surely going down the GN route. It leaves Lostintranslation, Kemboy & Al Boum, the latter two having yet to run. K having been confined to barracks, and in ABP’s case you never know what sort of mark the GC will leave on a horse, certainly since the turn of the century winners haven’t been as good subsequently, bar Kauto and Best Mate. Of course any of the aforementioned could step up on their next run (I’m hoping Percy does) However 66 ew, with cash out at B365 is tempting. I’m just not sure whether playing before the Drinmore or after, is the better option. 2m4f is probably a minimum trip and a fully fit Samcro would be a test. A good run or win would see a compression of price, a defeat could see 100 available before his next run, which you would hope would be over a more suitable trip. 8/1 for the Drinmore though is possibly value with BoD almost certainly not running. |
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I think it’s a perfectly reasonable shout at the price. My take is if you can find a plausible angle on a big price horse it is worth an investment. The biggie with an angle for me this year is ok corral. I think connections were genuinely taken back by how well he travelled through the Warwick race and I think they felt they had a tool on their hands. They knew they had him in the wrong race but it was all too late and then we had virusgate and it all became academic. I do believe this horse still has significant upward potential. Billy with the boost comes to 75s. Now this could all go up in smoke after the Hennessy. I am not sure how fit he is but if he goes close off 153 (I think) then 66s is going to look ok.
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i like the fact he was able to win off what looked a fast pace in a big field at fairyhouse , hopefull of a good run sunday if he lines up as you say ? marks over most one way or the other , hopefull he can go on improving ,the trip on sunday is a concern but its a good starting point and just watched the ign again and he could be called the winner a long way out barring accidents .
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Best of luck ?... helluva shout if you pull it off
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good luck miltons big prices ante post not such a risk as obviously you dont have to put much on and 2nd season chasers have the potential for better still, 66s ok corral is big considering ,only got 50s burrows at billies as dont have accounts with others but i can hopefully get some 75s on here .good luck with ok corral will have a closer look at it no harm having a few big priced uns on your side .
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The other thing I quite like about o OC and this may raise a few eyebrows is he won round plumpton. Francome used to say it was the closest to Cheltenham and the hardest track to jump round. The track would have been much too tight for him and the downhill fences very tricky for such an inexperienced novice but he handled it all very well.
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So we have now had the two races that have provided a fair few winners of the Gold Cup over the years.
As far as the KG is concerned i dont see the winner. I cannot see CDO doing much better than this years Gold Cup.and it seems LIT has to overcome a setback. Kemboy ran a good race yesterday and will come on for the run,and PP and DW would be the others i would take out the race re the Gold Cup. Add ABP and Santini and although still an open race,at least for me its been wittled down a bit. |
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Pp was out on his feet at the end of the savill, will only go gold cup on beter ground
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Kemboy stands up he wins the GC,last
years winner the big danger. GL ALL |
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burrows saint wins punchestown hurdle beating 3 stablemates sizing john in moderate 2nd when fell 2 out .
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burrows saint more likely aiming for the national .
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ABP performed well on his first run this season.
Best I have seen him jump. Worthy fav at this stage. |
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yes a worthy fav and a nice easy pop round , the one to beat but its not easy to retain a gold cup either have to be exceptional (he could be ) or be fortunate enough to meet less than top class opponents chasers both times ,that dont happen to often in gold cups .
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Well the only real difference this year is Santini and DW plus Kemboy if he jumps round.
After further thought I am now thinking I don't see any horses from last year beating ABP inc Kemboy who the more I think about it the more I think he's not a 3m2f horse round Cheltenham DW and Santini could be and for ABP to not win again,it would be one of those two that stops him. That's my thoughts at this stage anyway. |
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Should probably include LIT as well that weren't his true running last time.
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This year's renewal will be significantly more taxing to ABP given the presence of Lost and Santini assuming Santini recaptures the form of last season similarly, Lost in the Betfair Chase; Kemboy, if he runs to potential, and Cheltenham is not a bogey venue.
The others can stay at home, all things being equal. They had their chances, and exposed eg Presenting Percy. |
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wish it was as simple as that ^^^^
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Nothing in horse racing is simple, and it's only simple post a race when the form has been vindicated. Just look back at the run of Champ in The Dipper; the wayward horse was let down by his "experienced" jockey not on-top of the task-at-hand. Fir instance, his jockey was looking around rather focusing and trying to minimise or prevent the waywardness of Champ . I think his previous race behaviour would have been alarm-bell for any other jockey!
Thank-goodness, nothing untoward came from that unfortunate/unnecessary spill. |
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Indeed Foyles,and in truth its far from simple.
Has ABP improved now hes 8 with more experience?,likely I would think. Have DW and Santini improved from their novice season? Certainly Looks like DW has given hes just beat proven Grade 1 performers. Make your own mind up re Santinis performance at Sandown, but I think hes entitled to have improved. Just a few questions that I think have the answer to,but by no means definite. That's without LIT who at his form with BDM puts him bang in the picture,and Kemboy with his form in beating ABP last season. |
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I'd be fascinated to see Santini in headgear, he has loads of ability but he is very awkward, his head carriage wasn't great in the RSA but in his debut this season it was very clear. As he hit the front he stuck his head in the air and pulled himself up, but close to home with a horse next to him he bowed his head and stuck on.
Some form of headgear is essential for him to realize his potential, with it and provided it works he'd be interesting. |
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31 entries.
No notable withdrawals.........let's hope it stays that way!! |
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Bristol de mai,maybe a bit of an overlook?
Good run last year finishing 3rd,could place again,would not be a total shock as he's pretty consistent. 50/1 currently available. That may not be later today. Small e/w bet for me. |
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And he's a lot bigger price than some he beat last year,and being a nine year old is fine.
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Ran well again today,had he not made that error 3rd last would have been very close.
Santini now 7/1. I would expect Santini to beat him again over the Gold Cup conditions,but still feel at the prices hes value for a place. |
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1. Chris's Dream
2. Delta Work 3. Santini |
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Twiston Davies apparently has had a rare bet on BDM at 33/1.
Surely it’s a better Gold Cup this year with the 2019 Gold Cup and JLT horses all looking smart. |
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sizing john out for the season
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A bit of money for the quirky chappie probably trainer comments induced after his triumph at the weekend. The price of Lostintranslation is bigger than quirky chappie despite beating the same horse over that horse's fav track, and more convincing too.
I hope (and expect) Kemboy to do the business in Ireland this weekend. |
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Duffy .... you have created a monster
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Quiet important race tomorrow in terms of the Gold Cup.
To be honest I am not expecting too much difference in prices after the race. Kemboy should have improved for his run fto,and DW should have improved for experience,probable improvement from PP as well. Hard race to call tomorrow, and we also have Chris's Dream and Bellshill who both could upset the more fancied runners in the betting.Its possible some could be more forward than others, and possible some have this race as their big one as opposed to Cheltenham. Whatever happens none of them will have proved without doubt they could suit a Gold Cup with the extra distance and the uphill finish. I think one will have to win very well for a price to differ that much for March, probably Kemboy the only chance of that happening imo. Personally I hope to see DW run a nice race for my pocket,and I wish him well!! |
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proper race that.
DW winning today was a bonus,dont see any behind beating him at Cheltenham. Think the RSA needs recognising now. |
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Delta and Santini rematch. Best form this year so far
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ABP is the big threat. Native River will ensure a proper race.
The way DW and Kemboy finished today suggests DW is the stronger stayer out of those two. |
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ABP was beaten by Kemboy. Kemboy was beaten by Delta. Santini beat Delta.
Simples. |
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Yeh but different distances and a different year.
ABP is proven at the GC distance, Kemboy aint. DW looks to me a horse that's improved a fair bit,i am not so sure Santini has as much. But one thing for sure,the RSA is proving THE race. |