Cheltenham Festival
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22 Nov 19
18:11
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05 Oct 11
One of two big clashes tomorrow.
Uncertain as to whether to back Minella Indo for the RSA now, or wait.
It might be the intermediate distance for both.
What was reason for Laurina dropping away so badly in last year's Champion Hurdle? Beaten in a matter of strides. Is she just overrated? Did Minella Indo need those first two runs last season or did he just take a massive step forward which he can now continue?
I would side with Minella Indo but far too questions to be confident. I would imagine he would force it and try and put pressure on the mare's jumping.
Uncertain as to whether to back Minella Indo for the RSA now, or wait.
It might be the intermediate distance for both.
What was reason for Laurina dropping away so badly in last year's Champion Hurdle? Beaten in a matter of strides. Is she just overrated? Did Minella Indo need those first two runs last season or did he just take a massive step forward which he can now continue?
I would side with Minella Indo but far too questions to be confident. I would imagine he would force it and try and put pressure on the mare's jumping.
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Just a personal view but I think MI will need the run badly tomorrow. The trainer has stated that he is very hard to get fit. I Think there is only one race the trainer is interested in and that’s the RSA and I for one am hoping he disappoints tomorrow as I intend to take advantage of the inevitable drift. I have him in a number of multiples but had no choice as I expected the others to shorten.
Within reason I plan to continue to invest in MI until March and am ok with a few defeats along the way. In the same way i am expecting a MI drift I am expecting a laurina overreaction in the reverse direction. This is just my view. If MI does win I would take it as a massive positive for his RSA chances and a significant negative for Laurina. |
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Laurina appears strong in the market but is that just a result of her rival being weak?
Even if Minella Indo is going to need it assuming he goes on (which seems obvious) she is still going to be tested. |
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nice test for minella indo, he seems weak in the market every time he runs. no doubt he'll need the run today but interesting to see how he takes to fences. the mare seems very short here but expect her to win tbh so whatever indo does will be a learning curve betting wise moving forwards but it wouldn't surprise if he still puts it up to her. 2 good novices here
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think unlikely MI will be best at 'the intermediate distance'..saw 3m out well over hurdles and most horses stay better over fences
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Surely the ground is going to make it more of a stamina test unless for some reason they go a dawdle which presumably helps Laurina?
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No contest.
Blackmore just schooled Minella Indo round. Ridden like that he had no chance of winning. The market indicated what was expected. Only one horse sent out to win the race. Don't know what that tells about Laurina because she was never put under pressure. There is no point running Minella Indo over that trip again unless they are prepared to go forward. |
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She was novicey with a tendency to give the fences a bit too much air, the question about her isn't really going to be answered over the winter in Ireland, it'll be answered at Cheltenham, if she gets there!!
Can she operate at a quicker pace and pick up off of it? over hurdles the answer was an emphatic no.!! |
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Uninformative contest really.
Laurina surely more of a JLT type than an Arkle horse. |
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nice education for both horses, we will know more next time
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De Bromhead talking about sending Minella Indo straight to a Grade 1. I don't think that is the greatest bit of planning I have ever heard. His jumping was far from perfect. He totally bungled the first and although he was fine when asked to go long it wasn't obvious that he had much of a clue when he got in tight. I would have thought a bit more practice and a definite win would be the way to go. Too many tough asks beforehand and you might not have a horse for Cheltenham.
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You may be right though there are very few trainers I would trust more with a horses jumping.
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The jury's out for me. I was pretty strong on Paloma Blue for the Arkle but Saturday was the first time he looked anything like a jumper.
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Judging trainers ability to get a horse to jump on PB is incredibly harsh imo. Getting him to jump well would be a monumental achievement for any trainer imo.
Obviously if the jury’s out for you on the trainer and you are worried about the horses potential targets then you have probably answered your own question about whether to invest yet. Best of luck whatever you decide. |
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When I created the thread I didn't realise that I had already backed Minella Indo at a few points bigger than he is now. If you want a bigger price you have to gamble on whether they will take to fences, or not.
You didn't think Paloma Blue jumped well on Saturday? I don't think he made a mistake. I couldn't believe it was the same horse. It would be interesting to know who is responsible for the transformation. |
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I haven’t seen saturdays race. But if he jumped well either directly or indirectly the trainer deserves credit as the horse has been far from a natural. Perhaps the transformation has something to do with the absence of a certain jockey that the owners were admirably though imo foolishly loyal to.i wonder how much the same said jockey was involved in the horses original schooling? In comparison DR is different class imo. Either way I would certainly not blame the trainer for it taking time to get the jumping sorted. If it is now genuinely sorted the horse is a proper tool imo.
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Laurena bleed today
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