Cheltenham Festival
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brief write up ! a triumph winner over hurdles and jlt winner over fences and well fancied for next years ryanaire which seems the logical race for him but i think he will have a good chance in the king george if aimed at it , and interesting that he is entered in a 3 mile chase at punchestown as well as the 2.4 mile chase there ,so a step up in trip is possibly on connections minds . anyway a tough little blighter and 3m round kempton could well suit . he is 25/1 with the books 33s with 365 if ya can and 30 on here . a good few of those in front of him in the betting may not make the gig especially those trained in ireland like to stay at home over christmass so he should if turning up be a fair bit shorter ,put it this way lostintrans is 12/1 and dds 25s you do the maths ! ok he may not stay but i think he has a good chance of getting the trip if he does no way is he a 25s shot. altior kemboy and al boom photo take a big chunk out the market and we dont know if those 3 will turn up altior also has to prove he stays as well .........................before ya say wrong forum muppet .......i know never mind . selectio KING GEORGE CHASE .......... DEFI DU SEUL ....25/1 WIN SHOPS 30 ON HERE . DEBATE AND CRITISISM EXPECTED AND LOOKED FORWARD TO............keep tha change ya filthy animals
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1st and 2nd in betting on here altior and cyrname ,also gotta prove they can be effective over 3m ,field should cut up .will kempton suit lostitrans ? how many of the front half dozen turn up ? 25s defi du seaul looks too big imo and lostintrans has franked the form of the jlt at aintree so not too shabby .
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ran a good race in the 2m punchestown champion novices but the trip clearly too short against the speedsters . hopefully connections have the king george on their minds
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Yep back to 20f or step-up to 3m next; the pace was just a touch to quick for him.
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Got his come uppance today
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The horse ran a great race in defeat by hopefully one we get to see a lot more of if he stays sound and if so previous applicants need not re-apply
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he got his come uppence yes ,but personaly i am happy he did as they will have realised that 2m with or without altior is pointless ,will he get 3m ? dont know for sure but wernt stopping in the jlt so worth a pop imo.
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He's a hold-up horse, and needs to be delivered late; he was collared by Lostintranslation (if memory serves) after passing him quite comfortably. And, Lostintranslation has proven 20f was too short for him when he beat Topofthegame (winner of the RSA) easily over 3m at Aintree.
Whether he stays 3m and beyond I have more reservation than Too Darn Hot doing the same in the Derby. But, he's unlikely to run over 16f again unless it's soft, and a deterrent to his main protagonists eg Lalor. |
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Hes not a top notch 2 miler,no surprise he got beat.
Not sure he will be a top notch 3 miler either but time will tell. Still no disgrace being a top notch in between horse,plenty of decent races at that distance. |
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So the JLT winner meets the Arkle winner over 2 miles at Punchestown. The JLT winner wins this particular match by 16 lengths with another recent Grade 1 winner 9 lengths back in 4th. All of them put in their place by an unexposed potential supestar,who may or may not stand up to long term training.
And the conclusion is that 2 miles is not Defi's trip. That he is not top class at 2 miles-he doesn't have the pace for it- but he is top class at 2 and a half!! What am I missing? |
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Optimum distance theory ?
Otherwise known as load of cobblers theory |
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ok lads he may not stay 3m but i dont think he will win a champion chase with altior and that chacon pois horse of mullins in it ,so where do connections go ? ryanaire seems obvious target but in the meantime why not try stepping him up in trip ? could stay at 2.4 m but the king george is a big prize and hobbs has said and i quote " i wouldnt rule it out " he wernt stopping in the jlt so on a flatter track like kempton its worth a pop imo and as i said earlier the race will cut up !
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also he is quite lightly raced so not difficult to emphasise more to come .
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I would think he'll be running for place prize money only at senior level in the top races next year. Altior and Kemboy could be headed for the King George and he has a stone to find with them at this stage.
The 2 mile route would probably be his best chance of landing a grade 1 if he can avoid the big guns |
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Have absolutely no desire to get into another waste of time debate re optimum distance....or not!!
What i will say though...DDS will in my opinion have more success in races in between 2 and 3 miles,and i expect thats where he will be mostly campaigned. |
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Given an injury free season DDS must be odds on to line up in the Ryanair at Cheltenham. He is still a young horse, and clearly extremely good at the intermediate trip.
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^^
If the race was sponsored by JP and not that budget airline DDS is a 1.000000000000001 for it, I'm emphatically certain. And, no 16f or 24f next season either otherwise he'll be either alive by the likes of Altior, Cyrname, Min, Footpad, Chacun..., Lostintranslation and Kemboy. |
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No injury free season either !
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I don't personally see Defi as a horse who will improve a lot from his novice season.
Not many top juvenile hurdlers keep progressing through the years (Tiger Roll the obvious and extraordinary exception) and he has a lot to do to take on what looks to be a star studded crop of chasers next season, whatever the distance. |
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well you could be right but he has progressed through this season and he has had 15 races total and a mark of 162 as said 2.4 m looks his trip but the temptation could be there to step him up and if he dont stay then back to the ryanaire ,he is tough and genuine and they type that does enough and battles .
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He'd be stepped-up for the King George (darnside more prestigious than budget airline), and if found wanting budget airline again, But, 16f looks very unlikely now given his Ireland performance; Gold Cup distance could be a stretch too far, I'd think.
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doesnt look the biggest horse to me so think he might struggle in the championship races at cheltenham especially if soft
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yeah he is not over big but he is game ,its all ifs and buts at this stage and i wouldnt fancy him for the champion or gold cup but the king george i would say would be more in his favour ,all will be revealed one way or the other .
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vindication a long way back in the jlt rocks up off a mark of 151 at ascot today.
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The more this one keeps getting plugged on here , on u k tv the more I will be backing CHACUN
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Defi must be clear fav after Chacun run. No excuses.
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DDS being fav for the CC, this race is starting to look like the CH, every decent 2 mile chaser should have a crack at this race.
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Hibore
Which out of CPS and UDS would have the best chance if turning up in the Queen Mum? |
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CPS will go for the Champion but lost his halo today. He really didn’t look like a horse wanting a fast run 2 miles on a stiff course like Cheltenham. UDS will run in Ryanair if he goes to Cheltenham but I think he’ll bypass and wait for punchestown.
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My point behind the question was trying to work out why you think beating UDS a neck was better form than CPS.
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You make DDS fav for the QM,and the horse he beat a neck runs in the Ryanair,or not at festival at all.
If DDS is fav,then do you not think the horse he just beat should run in it? |
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Sorry, thought you were asking which horse Mullins would run. Defi is 4/1 and CPS is 6/1 after that run today.
UDS is still a top class horse and runs well around Sandown & Punchestown as they suit pace pushing. He’s not found it so easy around.Cheltenham in past seasons and that’s why I very much doubt they will go there. CPS from all accounts would not come off the bridle today and would give Altior and Defi a fence start in the Champion if you listened to the Irish pundits recently. I’ve only watched him once where he beat Defi at Punchestown last year and was interested if he was the real deal or just a fresh horse beating a Cheltenham winner who’d run 6 times. You’d have to be disappointed not that APT beat him easily in the end but that Ordinary World was only 5 or 6 lengths behind. It was his first run and he’ll come on but a better showing next time will be needed for him to book his ticket. Defi has proven form around Cheltenham (festival winner over 2.4) so staying over 2 miles plus is a massive plus. If I had to pick one horse to bet today I’d have to go with him. What would you select ? |
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God knows!!!
I will say though,as much as I have and still love UDS I just cannot have him being good enough at nearly 12 to be as close to a fav for the QM as he was at Sandown, and I cannot have CPS after watching today.....think APT beat him fair and square and see no reason for a reverse with those two. I guess DDS could be fav by default as the race is lacking a solid fav if Altior don’t come back,but he will not have any of my Money.He might if he turned up in the Ryanair!! The QM looks a bit of a mess to me to be honest. |
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Basic errors being made here. You have heard it all before but decline to listen. Willie doesnt train them for Christmas.
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Fair enough I see that point.
If I had a price about CPS I would not give up,but I would not back at current price after yesterday. |
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Things going to plan then Irish....
Will Percy win today ? I think he must go close today if he’s a credible Gold Cup candidate. If not maybe Ryanair awaits. |
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Actually if Willie doesn’t train them for Xmas Percy has the fav cooked already
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I am not sure the trainer or ex jockey were expecting him to get beat yesterday from their comments. He won on his debut and then again after a 3 year break. All horses are different and while I accept the trainer obviously has March as his target I don’t think it can be taken for granted that he would definitely improve past yesterdays winner who also has March as his target and is improving rapidly though of course is possibly more likely to run in Ryanair. The trainer also has another very promising and rapidly improving chaser in his yard and for me it is questionable whether he deserves to be ahead of him in the market. Add to this he is obviously not the most robust of horses then I think it is reasonable for people to question whether he represents value.
All that said I accept it is possible he could come on a ton and be as good as his reputation suggests . There were elements of his run yesterday that were very impressive but in truth we don’t really know all that much about him............and I also think DDS is lousy value |
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Hobbs on DDS: "We hope he's back!"
So do we otherwise a change of scenery like Yorkhill for rejuvenation is necessary. |
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'won't run no more this season.'(Hobbs)
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