Santini - Gold Cup 2020

Santini clipped in again 5/1 NRNB now.

In my opinion you can put a line through Percy and Kemboy now. Can't see how they finish ahead of Delta now they have been beaten in both a steady and true run race by the same horse with neither looking like the extra distance would turn things round.

Can't have CDO staying trip as didn't last year so line through him. Although I've backed Lostintranslation at 14/1 I'm not confident and not many GC winners win after being pulled up in their last race (if any ?). line through him.

So we have only 4 who can win.

Santini
Delta
Al Boum
Native

Cool Dawn won the Gold Cup after being
PU the race before,5/4 fav Agfa Diamond
Chse Sandown.

Thanks Pen,
My 14/1 still as a chance then.

has*

Also not the race before but I think
Looks Like Trouble PU in the King George,
but did win his next start prior to the GC.

People on here are giving Santini and Delta Work
big chances,Lostintrannslation did beat Topofthegame
convincinly 6L@ Aintree.He did beat Bristol De Mai
aswell.Big player if right.
  GL

Don Cossack fell in The King George then won The Gold Cup 3 months later.

In the impending Gold Cup I'd have Santini before Delta Work; Lostintranslation before Santini; Kemboy before Al Boum Photo. Just  do not know which of the 3 is best.

I find it impossible to construct a plausible case for Santini to beat Delta Work.  The latter is a real contender, the former does not look like a Gold Cup winner to me at all.  Nipping away from Bristol de Mai after he had made a shocking error is one thing; outstaying a top class Gold Cup field in a (probably) well run race?  Can't have it on my mind.  I would literally rather back Native River than Santini.

Al Boum Photo and Delta Work should be vying for favouritism at this stage; Santini and Clan Des Obeaux both look far too short to me.  I couldn't be on Lostintranslation either, but wouldn't want to say he can't win.  Aside from the first two, I still think Kemboy is a possible.

I find it impossible to construct a plausible case for Santini to beat Delta Work ???

How about watching last years RSA...Was that impossible ?

Not at all Hibore.  I think Delta Work has improved considerably since then, and I don't think Santini has anywhere near as much.  Delta Work has been impressive every time he has been seen this season, bar an off day at Down Royal; Santini has been pretty underwhelming every time this year.  Delta Work has been most of the Irish market principles for the Gold Cup twice in a row.  Santini, er, hasn't.

On their debuts, Frankel got beat half a length by Frankel.  A year later, had Nathaniel lined up for the 2000 Guineas, you could have got a huge price about him finishing that close to, or beating Frankel.

What happened a year ago happened.  It was not impossible then, in that race, at that time.

It doesn't help me begin to build a case for them finishing in that order in the Gold Cup.

so delta work can have a off day but santini cant ?

He didn't look like a Gold Cup winner waiting to happen in the Cotswold, either Gazo.  I don't see any sign he has improved to the extent Delta Work has.  If you disagree to the extent you want to take fives him winning the Gold Cup, fine.

I would sooner chew my leg off.

he beat the horse who finished third in last years gold cup with two decent handicappers well down the field in a decent time compared to delta work times but the question was why can one have a off day but not the other

Fair enough, but you are posting on a thread I put 10 months ago when Stantini was 12/1 and Lostintranslation was 14/1 both back E/W. I also added Delta Work at 9/1 EW before Sundays race if you look. I'm leaning towards Santini but Delta is my main danger.

As Lydia says Santini is marmite and either you like him or not. I don't think you will see the best of him until his stamina kicks in over the Gold Cup trip. But that is my opinion and you have yours.

If you want to dissect Santini's Cotswold against Delta Work (both wins) you'll find that unless Top Ville Ben, De Rasher Counter, Slate House AND BDM didn't run their races..Santini's rating of 171 could have been 173 or 174.

Gazo, any horse is entitled to an off day.  But that really isn't the point.  Delta Work has collateral form subsequent to the RSA that suggests he might be good enough to win a Gold Cup.  Santini doesn't.

He was all out to beat Bristol de Mai 3.5L after BDM had made an uncharacteristic blunder at a crucial time.  This is the same Bristol de Mai that got beat 6L in last years Gold Cup and 10L at Aintree, with both those winners likely to reoppose here.  Meanwhile, The horse that beat him 10L at Aintree has been beaten by Delta Work the last twice.  And yet he is a shorter price.  If that makes sense to you, I would genuinely like to hear why.

to be fair they are pretty much the same price which seems pretty fair to me and also think the favourite is also the right one,santini beat delta work at cheltenham last year and then beat the gold cup third so delta work would have needed two monster performances to be a lot shorter than santini

Fair enough.  I though Delta Work's latest performance was way in advance of Santini's but that's just my opinion. We will find out when they meet- hopefully in the Gold Cup.

as long as one of them wins i wont mind,delta work and santini are the only two i have backed with delta work being my biggest winner because he went to a big price after his first run and i always give elliot's horses another chance after their first run if backing for cheltenham,although i do fear the favourite who i thought was very impressive last year

Yes I agree.  If Al Boum runs to the same level as last year he will take some beating.  I backed Kemboy at a very big price before Aintree last season, but I am not exactly brimming with confidence now.  Also got a bit on Presenting Percy at an even bigger price.  If anything Delta Work has beaten might turn it round over a stiffer test it could be him.

If you are on Delta Work at a good price, I think you are in a very enviable position.  And I am well aware I might have got Santini very wrong. 

FWIW my biggest ante post bet was on poor old Topofthegame, so at the time I certainly hoped the RSA form line was going to turn out to be the right one.

Never thought I'd hear the term nipping away applied to a description of Santini

I think both Santini and DW have solid chances of winning the GC. On a number of occasions people that are not keen on santini refer to the mistake BDM made 3 out. I would trust the objectivity of this argument much more if they also acknowledged the mister and momentum lost by Santini two out and that the horse actually deserves credit for coming back again and winning. I have watched a lot of screws over the years and a whole heap of them would have thrown in the towel after that mistake. Objectively I think he at least deserves some credit for how he responded.

Mistake

The thing is sophie if he does that at cheltenham he wont win

Agree but nor will a lot of them

Ive seen all the leading fancies not jump as well as they can at times.
That's one of the things we cannot legislate for.....how they jump on the day.

As far as my DW is concerned I have been pretty happy with his last two rounds of jumping.
Just hope he can repeat that with a different jockey.

My? Meant to say my fancy!! Just to make it clear, I am not part of the Gigginstown outfit

Totally agree Milton's Sophie, and he really seemed to finish his race better too.  I guess the focus on BDM's mistake is that this is a rarity for him, but it is very fair to point out Santini can do better with a better round of jumping.

An interesting visual comment from the 25th January Trials Day (I was there before you ask) was that it was Santini wasn't blowing anywhere near as hard as the other horses in the field. He is a very lazy bugger and cheek pieces would be welcome addition.

^
Agree, and I've been saying it on here ever since his debut this season.

Perhaps they are just waiting until the big day itself, there is a theory isn't there that it is the 1st day with them on that you get the best effect from them.

He is an interesting one for an I/R play because the question mark about him isn't "ability" it's whether he'll travel through the race well enough, you can get a sense of the answer to that question without paying too much for it through the run...if you aren't already on that is....like me.!

Massive support for Santini today and is now best priced 9/2. The penny has finally dropped.....

Indeed Hibore.  If it gets any shorter, I'll start laying, which is as good a copper bottomed guarantee of a festival winner as you will ever get.

It is getting shorter

7/2 at most sites now. Joint fav on here.....getting closer to my April prediction of 3/1 fav on the day.

It’s my biggest bet ever and at 12/1 as well. Can’t lay off...or is that me being stupid

Doubled at big prices with Defi (8/1), Goshan (14/1) and Champ (8/1) as well

You're getting a good run for your money, the excitement and anticipation you're getting, all be it, not putting money in your pocket if it doesn't win, still serves in providing the fun factor and something good to look forward too, and that's a large part of it, that's how I look at it anyway.

Yes, your right. Let it ride

I think one reason for the huge support is the long range weather forecast looks like the Festival will be on soft ground.
5/1 to 7/2 in 3 days is quite a move.

don't exagerate,7/2 with 2/20 firms
on oddschecker,Powers & B366,'cos they've
just gone nrnb.

Fingers crossed it’s not soft ground again as it’s more interesting if they are running on different ground to what they’ve been on all season.

What a crazy price! At this rate he'll be the outright fav soon; I'd him at 12/1 and Lostintranslation at 16/1. Hopeful rather than confident.

If soft ground, his 3 serious challengers will be Lostintranslation, Al Boum Photo and Delta Work.

I wouldn't be getting carried away about the ground, it's the same most years, mid february and we're all flooded, March arrives and the sun comes out, by the time Cheltenham starts hey're talking about watering.

Delta only has £4 to be matched. Is something up ?

Hibore... to your post of the 13th... If it was me there is no way I would lay off.

Assuming you can afford to lose what you bet on your 'biggest bet ever' don't ruin the story for the grandchildren by telling them you laid half back.

Personally, I hope you lay your stake and more back, but only because I don't think it will win.  In your position, I would  not lay any back in  a million years.

But I work hard for a wage; only bet fun money, and dream of copping a few bags for a week in Barbados.

You are only "stupid" if you need the dough for necessities. I really hope you cop if none of mine can win. 

Thanks Muse, you are right of course.

I had a similar journey with Native River a couple of years ago (on ante post thread if you are bored). The strangest thing I found when you get absorbed with a bet like this is that even if you win there is a great sense of sadness once it’s over.

I’ve also backed Native River at 20/1 Lostintranslation 14/1 and Delta 9/1 all e/w so would hope to get something in the frame

I belong to the other school of thought. If I've several contenders in a seemingly open-race (like this year) I'd always 'lay' off accordingly ie my long term and consistent success rate eg 2/5. Similarly, if I only have one eg Don Cossack - backed from 8/1 to 12/1 (after falling in the King George) - the price of 2/1 (on race day) I 'laid' off to win just a small 4 figure ie 2/3 (win regardless of result). He won, but I was not disappointed or felt cheated; balancing the book (purpose of The Exchange) must be the priority regardless.

However, I did not 'lay' off in the duel between Native River (8/1) and Might Bite (6/1); the later would have won me more. Only regret I did not do the forecast.

People focus too much on the mistake by BDC in the old Cotswold Chase and conveniently forget that Santini walked through the second last which reopened the door for BDM but Santini was just too good for him. I wouldn't pay much attention to how BDM ran at Aintree as the horse needs a long break in between races with cut in the ground - exactly what he got in the Cotswold Chase. I think his performances in last year's Gold Cup, the Haydock Chase and the Cotswold Chase are all of a similar level and provide a decent yardstick. It puts Al Boum Photo, Santini, Delta Work and Lostintranslation all in the picture with it coming down to how they perform and jump on the day in the Gold Cup. Joker in the pack is Presenting Percy who has slowly come back to himself but will surely need better ground on the day to have an advantage over the others. I can't have Kemboy at all. Beaten fairly and squarely twice by Delta Work this season and arguably flattered at Aintree last season when beating horses that had just run their guts out in the GC excluding himself after failing to clear the first that day. Add in two other poor efforts at Cheltenham there is an argument that he doesn't even act at the track before assessing whether he has the form to actually compete with the other protagonists.

Hibore... I sympathise fully with the Native River one.  Had been having little bits each week and ended up standing to win about 3 grand.  Tizzards were not right that Festival and he did heroically to be 3rd.  I reckon the next year, when I was all over Presenting percy, I had eniugh on Native River that I won nack the previous year's stake.  So it goes.  Half an hour later, I watched them go to the stary for the Foxhunter, and thought 'Pacha would have won that with a  jock on last year, and he looks well. I wonder what price he is." Got a big price win only on the exchange a minute before the off.

What I am saying is, its great getting excited about these antepost dreams, but in the end you get so many swings of fortune at the festival that it all evens out in the end.  Enjoy the anticipation, and all the better if it wins!

Imp, I understand your point, but I look at antepost staking a bit differently.  The ones you are wrong about antepost never give you the chance to ameliorate a bad position, so by laying off the ones you are right about, you make a long term profit even harder than it already was. 

But that is for me: I like chancing my arm a good time before the race: if you are making money your way it can't be wrong.  As it goes I am ahead in my lifetime betting antepost on the Festival, but only because of one miraculous year; I make more on the festival handicaps overall, most often betting on the day.  But I do most betting on a Saturday, and enjoy 'reinvesting' a bit of what I win week to week on long term pipe dreams because it keeps me interested and gives me the occasional shot at a big win.

Finally, Swagger, your points are all valid and I sort of suspect NH might have sorted Santini out, but I still think Delta Work will beat him.  If I am wrong I totally accept that, but we all judge what we see and firm an opinion in the end.  PP and Kemboy are both big antepost winners for me, but the former doesn't look good enough, and the latter has done nothing to prove Punchestown (not Aintree) the signoficant formline.

As the race comes closer, I find it harder and harder to see a good reason the champ won't defend his title.

Sorry for the long post, but I really appreciate everyone putting the time in to exchange their views on here.  The HR forum is loopy, and it is nice to be able to hear people make cases that challenge what I think.

Muse - I have Delta Work and Santini at pretty good prices (both 9/1) not for a load but a nice amount.

As we get closer to the race I also think that Al Boum Photo has an excellent chance of winning back to back Gold Cups and we are due a horse to do that as well. He has had a similar preparation to how Henrietta used to prepare Best Mate - very low key with 1-2 runs then go do it on the big day.

So i'm hoping Santini goes off a well backed fav with Al Boum Photo drifting out so that I can get a nice price on him as well.

If something else wins then fair play - this game is all about opinions and we back it up with how we bet.

On a side note I don't really understand all of the negative views regarding Santini (not from yourself but generally from a fair few people).

3 mile point to point winner
Grade 2 novice hurdle winner over 2 1/2 miles at Cheltenham
Grade 1 novice hurdle winner over 3 miles at Aintree
Grade 2 novice chase winner over 3 miles at Newbury
Beaten a staying on 3 lengths in the Feltham on a track that really wouldn't suit him.
2nd in the RSA beaten by 1/2 length where the 3rd (Delta Work obviously) has subsequently won two biggest Grade 1 chase races over 3 miles in Ireland this season.
Beat Bristol De Mai in the Cotswold Chase to put him right there with the other horses at the head of the market.

Add in that Santini has had a wind operation and I think they have had a lot of issues getting him properly right, he hasn't shaped too badly and agree with his trainer that the best is yet to come.

Nice profile for a Gold Cup in my opinion.

I’m off to Las Vegas to watch the Fury Wilder fight so logging off for a week. Hope everyone has a good weeks punting.
Can I get a volunteer to defend Santini in my absence ?

Have fun Hibore,and im sure you will make up for it when you are back!!

Have fun in Vegas. Take a heli ride - well recommended. But, remember what happens in Vegas stays in Vegas.

Santini will be in rude-health when you return (fingers crossed).

Thanks guys, I’ve done the heli ride into the Grand Canyon last year....amazing.

It’s one of my bucket lists to see a heavyweight fight in Vegas so can’t wait. Tickets are bonkers expensive (more than flight and suite at Ceasars combined) but should be experience I’ll never forget.

Back for a week and then Monday travel to Cheltenham for four days. Could be a great 3 weeks paid for by Santini hopefully.

Here's hoping too (with Santini), If not to be Lostintranslation will do too; a combo tricast with Delta Work/Kemboy.

Enjoy the fight, 'Hibore'.

Back from Vegas now. What a fight and what a town

Have I missed anything ?

Welcome back 'Hibore'. You ain't miss anything. All still standing (so far); Hendo had one coughing (Epatante) but she seems to be recovering well - no more cough detected. A more serious threat could be "corona" the virus not the drink.

So the big day for you  today hibore horse is 11\2 on here layable at the moment so guess you laid the stake off, good luck to you

Very good run, having to switch surely cost it the race.

Due to being caught flatfooted he was short of room just before and especially just after the last when Nico had to take a yank on the reins and pull around Lostintranslation that loss of momentum must have cost it more ground than it was beaten.
Not sure if that means he was unlucky or was the architect of his own downfall - probably a bit of both.

Native River's absence was probably costly to Santini.

townsend won the race with far superior jockeyship

Al Boom Photo made a bad mistake
aswell in that race.Good winner
in my book.

OP
by the way he did you proud,Santini,
ran a stormer.
  GL

I am a ig fan of Nico but that was not a good ride, he should have won.

Townsend done him.like a kipper

Bad luck Hibore.
Lost in Translation cost you more than a neck after the last.
Was a darn good call.

unlucky the camera angle was poor,

Come off it lads nico couldnt go with paul after the second last, paul nicked his ground, nico couldnt stay the pace and was left to switch out, townsend knew what he had and nico knew what he had. One had a plodder the other had a bit of pace left. Lets be honest here lads .

Would not argue with the pace angle Irish,ABP certainly went when Santini could not.
I did see Nico having to switch after the last though.He then had to race quiet wide up the run in.
He got beat a neck.
ABP is a good gold cup winner, and in my book Santini was quiet an unlucky loser.

Unlucky my r s , rank poor riding, horse never had speed scrubbed along around the back, nico cut rachel off and then got cut off himself, what was unlucky about that ? The unlucky horse was monalee if thats your angle ...got put in a pocket by nico and he got a ban for it.

Nico showed all the signs of unprofessionalism afterwards as well, he had a face like thunder and was an angry man,  it was remarked upon on racing t v, they cant prove he hit monalee on purpose but he may well have got away with one there, if you are going to swim with the sharks you cant moan if you get bitten. Coddy lost his temper in the kim muir with baker, he took the 8 day ban in his stride, his dummy stayed well and truly in the pram, nico needs to learn that.

My angle is that Santini had to switch after the last,alter his line and go wider,costing more than the neck he got beat. Therefore concluding him as an unlucky loser.

I take your points re Monalee and the ride by Nico.....they are fair, but I was talking to Hibore about it being a good call and an unlucky result, and after watching it back I stand by that.

ABP won the race because he was quicker from the 3rd last than Santini,hes a quicker horse.
Santini was always likely to lose a bit of ground when the race quickened towards the end,but it was always imo his staying power that was going to see him win the race,and had it not been for LIT he would have imo.

It was a good call ....But the result wasnt unlucky at all
The best horse won thats a FACT

And you are living in denial
Once you start delving into the running of the race
And the IFS and BUTS of what might of happened
You are moving away from the facts
Which you can view quite clearly on the replays

Besides if you really want to countenance "luck"

shirley monalee was a far "unluckier" loser than santini

Let's just agree to disagree

Is PP ok after that "tired" fall? Let's hope he's sound for Punahestown.

Hes on a wind up again
Why seek attention in this way ?

Tw4t

Presume you mean Punchestown!!

And you are in serious cloud cuckoo land if you think that's got any chance of being on.

Santini ran better than I had expected but still got beaten. I have never really believed he was in that class so fair play to his supporters for getting a shout. Lostintranslation ran well but may not quite stay while Clan des Obeaux will not be asked to go there again but could easily win another King George. Monalee is another questionable stayer as they didn't go an end to end gallop which should have suited him. He still ran a career best over 3 miles plus but he has still never won a chase over more than 2.5.

Really sage ?

Second in a savilles (twice).
Second time beaten a head by Delta Work.
Fourth in a gold cup, btn 2 lengths
Second in an albert bartlett.hmm

....and because he hasnt won hes a "QUESTIONABLE  stayer ?

HDB must be an awful trainer ....

Over 350k hes won, but never won over three miles

Definitely questionable, i suppose what henry should of done was him in a grade 6 selling chase over three miles at ludlow to satisfy you and impejit. ?

I did say that he produced a pb in the Gold Cup but if he has won over 3 miles please correct me. He would be very interesting in the King George. Do you think he was beaten because of the ground or because they went too slow or because he is not good enough?

Definitely not beaten because of the ground
Won his ptp 3 miles in quicksand
Won a 3 mile hurdle in a clonmel quagmire
Whilst some moan about nico having to come round ABF LIT
Rachel had nico take her ground on the rail
About three out
And then have to get round three of them to win

CDO clearly did not stay; Lostintranslation ran a bit free (too fresh perhaps), and possibly outstayed by the winner and 2nd. But, I've backed him for the KG despite a dismal performance last year. Monalee seemed to stay better with time.

strictly on the form book,Monalee stays better
than the GC Wnr Native River,he was beaten under
2L bh Al Boom Photo,the latter by over 8L

I think Native River underperformed in 2019 after the titanic battle with Might Bite the year before. Also, ABP had probably improved since his 1st GC victory last year. He was the deserved 2020 GC winner.

I think it is time for Santini to have a new jockey. Barry Geraghty would not have got Santini beat. Of course there is no quarter asked or given in a Gold Cup, but for me Mr De Boinville should have used different tactics. Mum is however enjoying her Al Boum Photo winnings by the way...stay safe everyone during this time and hopefully we can resume racing properly soon

Imp ejit
"Monalee seemed to stay better with time."
What like he did in his p2p over three miles 4 years ago. Won
Or the albert bartlett over three miles 3 years ago 2 nd
Or the RSA over three miles two years ago . 2 nd

You are a clueless ejit

he has run 9 times over 3 miles  plus in grade 1 races over hurdles and chases and not won any,either not a true stayer or more likely not a grade 1 performer over 3 miles,although it might be 1 win out of 10 if that p2p run was a grade 1

Miles away mate
They are talking about the grand national for him !

Its hard to believe that some people are still saying Monalee doesn't stay. How much evidence do you need? If you couldn't figure that out 3 years ago when, despite not settling, he still managed to split penhill and wholestone in an albert bartlett, then you should give up the game.
And if he's not a genuine grade 1 horse then somebody needs to tell us who the grade 1 horses are because they obviously didn't run in the gold cup then.
Can I point out that native river, another likeable and genuine horse but who usually comes up short at grade 1 level, has won only 2 grade 1s in his lifetime. And one of those was when beating the great Henry Parry Morgan in a novice.

native river has won 2 from 8 grade 1 over 3miles plus, monalee has won 0 from 9 and probally best not using wholestone as a yardstick when suggesting a horse stays 3 miles plus in the top grade

Wholestone is a decent yardstick. He's a multiple grade 2 winner who has been placed in a Cheltenham Stayers hurdle and an Aintree Stayers hurdle, so yes, he is a genuine grade 1 standard hurdler who does stay 3 miles, and Monalee beat him 4 lengths.
Horses don't necessarily have to win to give us a handle on their overall ability. Monalee is as good as any of them at the moment from 2 and a half miles up

Monalee is a genuine, gallant performer, he'll rock up over anything between 2.4 and 3 but is one of those horses that will just always be a bridesmaid, he's a jack of all trades type, all be it at a high level.

Just watching the 2020 RSA. Champ did so much wrong and still won. I would back him to beat Santini at levels every time. The second and third are very good horses.

350k from a bridesmaid !

You can only do so much missionary work on behalf of common sense, horse racing or the against "lets besmirch the Cheltenham Festival mob"

I think Champ is a bit like Altior - he can quicken at the business end. But, his jumping is indifferent at times; Santini is lacking tactical speed. I hope he can emulate Paisley Park who also was lacking tactical speed last season.

As such, I cannot see Champ or Santini a force to be reckoned with in the King George 2020.

doubt either would even be considered for race

Either is about 10 here, but I agree they'd be unlikely given their running styles. However, I think 10/1 about Lostintranslation is a goer if one could excuse his dismal performance in the same race last season. I just hope connections will forego the Betfair Chase with him come November.

Well we gave it a good go !! 2nd and 3rd @ 12/1 and 14/1 from a year ago. Nice profit but so close to a huge payout....

Fair play to ABP and Townend who were in the right place at the right time. One thing I didn’t expect was the race to be run at a crawl which ultimately did for Santini.
Next year I’m sure Henderson will look to inject more guaranteed  pace into the race to help his entries.

I’ve already started backing two horses for next years race and will start a new thread  in the next few days.

"Santini is lacking tactical speed ".   

" i hope he can emulate paisley park who was also lacking tactical speed last season"

WAFLOB

Yeah, because he got so close in the end he must have tactical speed.

On greyhound t v a presenter called pat kelly said "this could turn out to be a tactical race" when acting as a tipster.

This "tactical speed" comes from submarine manouvres , thing what he means is turn of foot .

Absolute bull of the highest order !