Cheltenham Festival

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07 Mar 19 15:13
Date Joined: 07 Sep 15
| Topic/replies: 20,476 | Blogger: impossible123's blog
I believe the ground is the key to his chances of success as he barely stays 20f. The weather forecast is indicating more periodic and intermittent rain possible from early tuesday right to end of Festival on friday. As such, I'd envisage the more likelihood of his running in the Arkle than the JLT, I believe; prices here are 18  and 4.2 respectively, but only 7/2 nrnb for the former.
Pause Switch to Standard View Defi Du Seuil - Arkel or JLT
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Report FOYLESWAR March 7, 2019 3:31 PM GMT
lay him for the jlt then
Report KIMBLE March 7, 2019 3:40 PM GMT
lay material
Report Fashion Fever March 7, 2019 4:09 PM GMT
Jp hasn't had a runner in the arkle since tap dancer in simonsigs arkle

maybe he don't like the race
Report harry callaghan March 7, 2019 4:51 PM GMT
no doubt nonsense 123 has backed something in the jlt and wants him in the arkle a true horrible rat of a poster
Report harry callaghan March 7, 2019 5:04 PM GMT
as predicted just looked at the lostintranslation thread he's on that... hence his posting of this thread to ramp him for the other race...a truly verminous creature
Report buddeliea March 7, 2019 5:14 PM GMT
JLT is the race his trainer wants him in,hes said it quiet openly.
I expect him to be in that race.
Report Fashion Fever March 7, 2019 5:38 PM GMT
connections on 16/1 jlt Kealey said last night
Report impossible123 March 7, 2019 5:48 PM GMT
If the rain materialises and he runs in the JLT on thursday against Lostintranslation I'd lay and back against him.
Report buddeliea March 7, 2019 5:50 PM GMT
Good luck with that strategy
Report buddeliea March 7, 2019 6:00 PM GMT
Well we differ in every respect Imp.
Report impossible123 March 7, 2019 6:04 PM GMT
I'd Defi at 10/1 prior to his defeat to Lostintranslation - I thought his stamina gave way - thus I cashed-out. But he won next time at Sandown taking it up just after the last. However, I cannot see him beating the same horse again on soft or worse ground at Cheltenham over 20f even on level weight again.
Report Tractor March 7, 2019 6:33 PM GMT
Isn't JP holding a 16/1 betting slip for Defi in the JLT
Report impossible123 March 7, 2019 7:00 PM GMT
I did not know that. Anyway JP could have 21 here, and bigger in the past. A fantastic chance here if the heavens opens prior to the JLT where I'd have thought will stretch his stamina to breaking point if riding soft or worse.
Report Ramruma March 10, 2019 6:28 AM GMT
JP might have a 16/1 slip but as he is a billionaire, it is unlikely to make any difference. If the odd £10 or £20,000 does matter to JP then the Arkle has more prize money.
Report lockup March 10, 2019 8:41 AM GMT
when Joe Tizzard was interviwed on Get In friday night he said that he beleived Defi would be in the JLT according to connections.
Report buddeliea March 10, 2019 10:37 AM GMT
JLT confirmed.
As most of us thought
Report buddeliea March 10, 2019 10:37 AM GMT
Or should i say,not in Arkle.
Report impossible123 March 10, 2019 11:09 AM GMT
Yep, I 2nd guessed wrongly. Hope ground on JLT day is no worse that Arkle day otherwise Lostintranslation, Vindication nd one of the Irish participants might eat him for breakfast up that hill.
Report buddeliea March 10, 2019 11:12 AM GMT
To be fair the trainer has pretty much told us last few weeks.
He is tailor made for the in between distance,and has form on all types of going.
Report irishone March 10, 2019 11:32 AM GMT
wont matter which one the horse is entered in imvho
Report buddeliea March 10, 2019 11:36 AM GMT
Well thats another matter.....winning is the hard bit!!
What is important though is being in the right race for the horse to start with.
Report impossible123 March 10, 2019 11:43 AM GMT
I cashed-out on Defi at 10/1 after being beaten by the present 2nd fav plus several trebles; only a couple of accas remaining with Paisley Park, Sir Erec, Altior and Too Darn Hot.
Report duffy March 10, 2019 12:45 PM GMT
Too Darn Hot was never the same horse after he swerved the Tolworth, would have been a good race between him and Laurina in thatDevilSilly
Report johnslad March 10, 2019 1:54 PM GMT
Report impossible123 March 11, 2019 4:38 PM GMT
I think Defi could be in a spot of bother - weather wise - come thursday; the Cheltenham hill could seem eternity post tomorrow's expected rain.
Report impossible123 March 12, 2019 7:55 PM GMT
If Defi gets chinned because of the ground I'd be livid with connections, but hope Lostintranslation could redeem somewhat.
Report irishone March 14, 2019 11:12 AM GMT
No fecking clue
Report johnslad March 14, 2019 11:27 AM GMT
Real Steal is the1
Report FOYLESWAR March 14, 2019 11:44 AM GMT
irish have won 7 of  last 8 runnings of this ,ruby on voix de reve  assuming he would have had the choice of the mullins 3 ? think it will go across the water again .
Report Deptford March 14, 2019 1:44 PM GMT
Report impossible123 March 14, 2019 4:08 PM GMT
The 'sly' promotion and rfc were redemption, but cashed-out of a 10/1 single.
Report Catch Me ifyoucan March 17, 2019 1:50 AM GMT
LOSTINTRANSLATION and the ‘yet to record at least 4 career wins’ JLT Stat…
All previous eight winners of the JLT had recorded at least four previous career victories prior to landing the race… The JLT Novices’ Chase is still a race in it’s infancy, with only eight renewals currently on the board. However, the early evidence on the trends front looks very strong and very much suggests that it’s a race for those horses that have already proven that they ‘like to win’. By that I mean all eight winners have proven their desire to get into the winners enclosure on multiple occasions, with all eight previous winners having recorded four or more (UK) career victories.

Those that come into the race with less than four career wins on their CV have returned the following…
0/22 | 0% S/R | -£22.00 LSP – W&P 2/22 | 9% S/R
The fact only two have even placed is what makes me think this stat is going to prove to be a solid one for the race once we’ve had a few more renewals to properly analyse the race.
The problem with Lostintranslation is that he, to date, has not proven to be one of those horses that has a healthy desire to get himself in the winners enclosure more often than not. With a career record of two wins from his ten starts, he seems to regularly like to find at least one too good for him and in relation to previous winners of the JLT, that’s not a good sign.

The defence…
He jumps for fun (most of the time) and he won the Dipper on New Years Day in impressive fashion, storming up the hill to defeat the current JLT fav Defi Du Seuil. He is very much a chaser that still holds immense potential.

I rate him highly, very highly, and have done since his Novice Hurdle days and in fairness his win ratio/number of wins is likely to be the only negative against him when I draw up my final figures for the race.
I’d be lying, however, if I said that those lack of career wins didn’t concern me a touch and I do suspect there may be at least a couple with a stronger profile for the race…
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