Cheltenham Festival
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07 Mar 19
14:38
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08 Aug 02
just watched one replay on this and didn't bother to watch anymore. one was enough.
band of outlaws, wow, just wow.
bet of the festival for me.
band of outlaws, wow, just wow.
bet of the festival for me.
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Assuming he stays. (He was a miler on the flat.)
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They crawled in that race and the fastest horse from the flat won, Lethal steps is the one here for me, rated 102 on the flat gave Band of Outlaws 11lbs and was beaten 2 lengths, looking at the videos Elliott's been going through the motions to a degree with this horse, they cleverly stepped him up in trip to 2.4 to get him qualified where he came home in his own time late on, he's no worries whatsoever about the trip, big deal for Cheveley park I reckon and now Band of Outlaws has to give him weight.
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Another miler on the flat!
Not sure that Lethal Steps' flat form with Band of Outlaws over a mile back in May 2018 is remotely relevant to the Fred Winter - but Lethal Steps' hatred of soft going probably is - and neither of them appear to offer any value at current single digit odds. |
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Correction - they met on the flat in April, not May (not that it really matters in the context of the FW).
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I was just pointing out that LS was a higher rated horse on the flat than Band of Outlaws and as they met once just mentioned it, but connections of LS have managed to get him in off of what appears to be a decent mark in relation to the fav. who is so on the back of a 2 furlong burn up IMO.
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This is a race where historically horses with the highest flat ratings could be relied upon to run well.
My concern with both Band of Outlaws and Lethal Steps would be their stamina holding out in a truly run race, particularly on Soft going. There's clearly a lot of confidence behind both runners but at current prices, to my mind, the value has long since gone. |
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Some info about the potential French runner, Naturelle.
She's won two of four starts over hurdles, although the Post only show one of those runs, her win at Auteuil. Her last run was on Feb 1st, when she won a 7 runner Listed hurdle at Pau, form that looks pretty solid, as the next three home had all won twice over hurdles previously. She reversed form with the gelding that had beaten her a few weeks earlier over the same C+D, when he was getting weight from her. She also ran seven times on the flat (only twice according to the Post!), winning a 15 runner 1m 5f maiden last May, but that form was only rated worth a mark of 70. Her French hurdle handicap mark is 66kgs, which converts to 145lbs, but our handicapper has put her on 138 in the Fred Winter. She's a hold up horse, and got to the front too soon last time, needing firm driving to go clear close home. At Auteuil, she came from third over the last hurdle to lead 30 yards from the line. She's a fluent jumper and seems equally at home going right and left handed. What makes her interesting is that running style, which means the handicapper has no idea how much she has in hand. In both wins, she's travelled like a dream through the race. I just wonder if 138 is enough to stop her, although that's very much based on the visuals, rather than hard form book evidence. |
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wasn't aware the horse was a miler. might have to take another look, assuming I even survive day one without the bank being blown!
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Good info Anorak.thanks for that.
Had a dabble on here. |
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Fine Brunello for me, I think this has always been his target (unlike other 4yos with the same connections, this was his only entry).
The big weight is a concern, but the handicap is likely to be fairly compressed and he has the size to handle it. I thought he ran an eye-catcher in the Trial in January, never really being put in the race and staying on nicely past some reasonable sorts. 0.5 pt Fine Brunello @ 12/1 |
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I have inadvertently ended up with quite a large payday if BOO wins, backed it at 8-1 nr/nb after last win and have since had a few small doubles/trebles last couple of weeks with football teams that seem to keep going in so fingers crossed, seems weird to be so confident in a race of this nature, but cannot see any reason it wont run its race, GL lr.
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Sorry to say that Naturelle hasn't been declared for the race, which makes it odd that they bothered to leave her in at the six day stage. I hope it's not a case of a French trainer being caught out by the 48 hr decs, or by the health and innoculation rules. She certainly doesn't have any alternative entries in France
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Unlucky Anorak - I had a small bet at 30 on here after your excellent write up which probably jinxed it.
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Anorak - she is declared and running after all.
 Apparently France Galop made a f**k up with the entry. |
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Cheers .....backed maze runner now out, wouldnt be surprised to see willie pull adifferent pne to get maze runner back in
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Uncle,
Don't tell me, their camera was pointing at the wrong race! |
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A weak affair but something gonna win - life's a beach bud
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Well done OP and backers.
HouseofPain, UP OU Dat  |
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a pleasing result, thanks pa lapsy
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The so called pundits, slowly run races, wont like the going, blah blah blah
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Well done Lewisham Ranger. No issues with stamina, track or ground. Impressive performance.
One for the punters. |