Cheltenham Festival
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14 Feb 19
16:27
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Date Joined:
24 Mar 08
A post that generates some discussion/debate trying to chances for outsiders at Cheltenham this year, through form lines lines that may have slipped under the radar of the bookies.
An example of what I mean was last year in the County Hurdle I tipped up Mohaayed at 33s to my mates, because of a piece of form earlier in the season. He came 3rd of 4 in the Christmas hurdle. Rated at 135 at the time he was only just under 4 lengths of The New One (163) in second and 4 lengths in front of Chesterfield (146) in 4th...all off level weights (the race was obviously won by Buveur d'air). The horse was then put away with the county in mind and raised to only 139. Mohaayed was also a 3 lengths 7th in the race the year before off. Skelton was bullish before hand and the price was way to high in my opinion. Sounds simple doesn't it, but we all know its not.
Please post away and gain the bragging rights if it comes in. I'll be looking for this year and will post anything I find interesting.
An example of what I mean was last year in the County Hurdle I tipped up Mohaayed at 33s to my mates, because of a piece of form earlier in the season. He came 3rd of 4 in the Christmas hurdle. Rated at 135 at the time he was only just under 4 lengths of The New One (163) in second and 4 lengths in front of Chesterfield (146) in 4th...all off level weights (the race was obviously won by Buveur d'air). The horse was then put away with the county in mind and raised to only 139. Mohaayed was also a 3 lengths 7th in the race the year before off. Skelton was bullish before hand and the price was way to high in my opinion. Sounds simple doesn't it, but we all know its not.
Please post away and gain the bragging rights if it comes in. I'll be looking for this year and will post anything I find interesting.
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I'll wait until this time next year and give my example from the previous year if you don't mind
"Skeleton was bullish"
Really?
Skeleton almost pulled him out because of the soft ground.
Said afterwards he thought he had no chance.
Really?
Skeleton almost pulled him out because of the soft ground.
Said afterwards he thought he had no chance.
Feb 14, 2019 -- 10:52AM, duffy wrote:
I'll wait until this time next year and give my example from the previous year if you don't mind
A world class aftertime this SS.
not that I have to justify myself but here you go....photo.....just for the neh sayers
oh and oufies pal..please view the below youtube clip of the weatherbys preview evening last year. Go to 38mins30secs for Dan Skelton's view on the county where he describes him as one of his best hopes of the meeting (although Bridget eventually rode him as he switched to Spiritofthegames....probably as you said....due to softish ground)
oh and oufies pal..please view the below youtube clip of the weatherbys preview evening last year. Go to 38mins30secs for Dan Skelton's view on the county where he describes him as one of his best hopes of the meeting (although Bridget eventually rode him as he switched to Spiritofthegames....probably as you said....due to softish ground)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZqxDdW96_OY
the form line of Itchy Feet with Elixir de Nutz and Grand Sancy would give him a great chance in the Supreme Novice, currently 33/1
has the beating of both off level weights, Grand Sancy now rated 152 and Elixir 150
good ground would be ideal, but I fear they may over-water
has the beating of both off level weights, Grand Sancy now rated 152 and Elixir 150
good ground would be ideal, but I fear they may over-water
Shake, How do you get that photo on here? I am a tad technically challenged!! It made me laugh seeing it, dont think you will get a sorry mate!
Thanks Dep....I'm still smiling I was able to get it on here, and no I doubt think I will (but I can understand the scepticism). I am not sure how i got it on to be honest hahaha....I clicked the post reply and it gives the option to insert a photo but it took several attempts at drag and drop to get it into 'my photos' before it would post, hence my delay in replying. Had to wait for it to be approved.
Bloob...thats exactly the type of thing I was hoping people would post...I'll have a look, sounds good mate,,,nice spot
Bloob...thats exactly the type of thing I was hoping people would post...I'll have a look, sounds good mate,,,nice spot
DUCA DE THAIX 33/1 (66's exchange) wins the ARKLE (Gigginstown/Elliott/Davy) - form against Arkle fav Le Richebourg - badly hampered last time and 'saved' by Davy last time in L/stown - nice prior build-up in his form - GET ON ! 
^^ Make sure you take NRNB as GE said the Grand Annual is an option.
had a £5 on duca at 290 ish and just laid the stake off at 100 , nice free bet cheers cmiyc
ornua finished 2nd behind dynamite dollars at sandown,might be worth a small each way at current prices
Interesting horse Mr Sykes......very lightly raced for his age,not without a squeak.
A little harsh on SS,even so that horse is a good example betting wise.
Returned 33/1,he was available at twice those odds on here raceday,the tote return was £63.90.
Never be put off by a price,access directly to the tote on here is a real useful tool,the pools chelt are way bigger than standard meetings,worth a glance if you have several in mind.
Formwise.....Greatwood hurdle Nov 18 at HQ,strong look to it handicap hurdle wise,one for a few replays.
A little harsh on SS,even so that horse is a good example betting wise.
Returned 33/1,he was available at twice those odds on here raceday,the tote return was £63.90.
Never be put off by a price,access directly to the tote on here is a real useful tool,the pools chelt are way bigger than standard meetings,worth a glance if you have several in mind.
Formwise.....Greatwood hurdle Nov 18 at HQ,strong look to it handicap hurdle wise,one for a few replays.
"never be put off by a price"
yes good point, most people get sucked into the favs at cheltenham and don't even bother to look further down
like most races you should in theory do your own tissue... then you'd have a better idea of what the objective odds are... so much hype at cheltenham that it becomes very easy to focus on one or two horses a race. but this is the cream of the crop running here, all of the best horses in the uk and ireland and some from france.. even if you back an outsider it's going to be a very good horse.
yes good point, most people get sucked into the favs at cheltenham and don't even bother to look further down
like most races you should in theory do your own tissue... then you'd have a better idea of what the objective odds are... so much hype at cheltenham that it becomes very easy to focus on one or two horses a race. but this is the cream of the crop running here, all of the best horses in the uk and ireland and some from france.. even if you back an outsider it's going to be a very good horse.
Roksana is one I would like at the prices....either for the Mares, or the Coral if turning up there.
Ran 6 times over hurdles and never out of the top 3 (winning 3 times)
The form line that stuck out to me was her 2nd to Santini in the grade 1 Sefton Hurdle at Aintree. Gives a wiff of a horse still not at her ceiling yet. That was over 3m so seems to stay at least the 2m5f. Lightly raced could still be improving.
In that Grade 1 she beat some decent horses (although did have the mares allowance that day). Returned in the Contenders hurdle coming 3rd behind Buveur d'air and Vision des flos. That may have been shorter than she wants, especially after a long break, but it might show they think a lot of the horse.
If turning up in the Coral I think she is off a decent mark. If going to the mares she is a decent price when a few of the ante post favourites may go elsewhere. NRNB in both for me.
Ran 6 times over hurdles and never out of the top 3 (winning 3 times)
The form line that stuck out to me was her 2nd to Santini in the grade 1 Sefton Hurdle at Aintree. Gives a wiff of a horse still not at her ceiling yet. That was over 3m so seems to stay at least the 2m5f. Lightly raced could still be improving.
In that Grade 1 she beat some decent horses (although did have the mares allowance that day). Returned in the Contenders hurdle coming 3rd behind Buveur d'air and Vision des flos. That may have been shorter than she wants, especially after a long break, but it might show they think a lot of the horse.
If turning up in the Coral I think she is off a decent mark. If going to the mares she is a decent price when a few of the ante post favourites may go elsewhere. NRNB in both for me.
SS - Good thread. Thanks for initiating. Wonder how many well reasoned arguments will find their way on to this thread before the curtain rises on this year's Festival?
Nothing of recent vintage immediately springs to mind as yet as far as the 2019 Festival is concerned but for the last couple of Aintree and Cheltenham Festivals I've been backing No Comment and Rather Be almost blind because of the strength of their bumper runs back in late 2015 and early 2016.
Rather Be was beaten less than 6 lengths by Ballyandy in the 2016 bumper, unseated in the Martin Pipe in 2017, won at Aintree a few weeks later and last year was just touched off in the Close Brothers novice handicap chase.
No Comment did win a bumper at the 2016 Punchestown Festival and finished runner up in a race at the 2017 Aintree Festival but has otherwise disappointed.
Both Rather Be and No Comment still look well handicapped over fences and if they run at Cheltenham in a couple of weeks time I'll probably go in again.
Nothing of recent vintage immediately springs to mind as yet as far as the 2019 Festival is concerned but for the last couple of Aintree and Cheltenham Festivals I've been backing No Comment and Rather Be almost blind because of the strength of their bumper runs back in late 2015 and early 2016.
Rather Be was beaten less than 6 lengths by Ballyandy in the 2016 bumper, unseated in the Martin Pipe in 2017, won at Aintree a few weeks later and last year was just touched off in the Close Brothers novice handicap chase.
No Comment did win a bumper at the 2016 Punchestown Festival and finished runner up in a race at the 2017 Aintree Festival but has otherwise disappointed.
Both Rather Be and No Comment still look well handicapped over fences and if they run at Cheltenham in a couple of weeks time I'll probably go in again.
Rather Be running in the Grade 3 Handicap at Kempton tomorrow, CIK
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