Cheltenham Festival

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01 Jan 19 23:08
Date Joined: 05 Oct 11
| Topic/replies: 13,590 | Blogger: differentdrum's blog
Even though he is widely quoted I assume Jerrysback is above the ceiling for this? Finished too close last time.

Assuming he gets in Glen Forsa must have an excellent chance of a repeat win for last year's connections.
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Report differentdrum January 14, 2019 9:11 PM GMT
Market all over Glen Forsa in the last two days.

Presumably, some sort of tipping line has put it up. Doubt very much it is delayed reaction to this thread.
Report Hibore January 14, 2019 9:18 PM GMT
It was Glen Rocco winning on Saturday by 23 lengths who was second to Glen Forsa on Boxing Day.
Report differentdrum January 22, 2019 1:30 PM GMT
Glen Forsa on a mark of 140.

Has been entered on Saturday. Surely you would have to have a screw loose to risk throwing away that handicap mark?
Report Can't Catch Me January 22, 2019 1:47 PM GMT
Couldnt agree more dd... Bonkers if they run him
Report Can't Catch Me January 22, 2019 1:52 PM GMT
Although I think he's actually got a mark of 138? If thats the case then I suppose they could have concerns on whether that will sneak in or not? 136 and 137 were the lowest marks the last couple of years, but that was with a lot of non runners due to the ground. If the ground isn't as soft as least year and more stand their ground then 138 could well miss out....

Could be safer to give him a sighter of the Cheltenham fences this weekend and finish 3rd or 4th...
Report ReaseHeath January 22, 2019 6:16 PM GMT
He's entered in the Lightning Novices' Chase over 2 miles at Doncaster on Sat too - that may be a less hazardous assignment in terms of preserving/slightly enhancing his mark?

Respective field sizes might have a bearing on where he runs.
Report differentdrum January 22, 2019 8:32 PM GMT
I had taken the Racing Post rating. Did he go up after the second franked the form?

It's a difficult one, particularly as jumping is his major asset. It is hard to stop him jumping well. Imagine if he disappointed for some reason and he got dropped even further. On balance I think I would prefer to risk the 138.

If they do run and win I suppose they could go for the Plate or throw him into a JLT where there is no obvious standout. Those options would obviously be a huge bummer for those on at double figures for the Close Brothers.
Report differentdrum January 23, 2019 10:37 AM GMT
I see the handicapper hasn't 'helped' Jerrysback. Left him unchanged on 148 but only put Castafiore up 11.
Report differentdrum January 25, 2019 12:06 PM GMT
Glen Forsa not declared. A shame in a way because I think he would have dotted up.

He has been given a JLT entry.
Report differentdrum February 14, 2019 12:54 AM GMT
Glen Forsa now entered in the Kingmaker. What on earth are they playing at?

There are going to be an awful lot of cheesed off punters if this horse doesn't end up in the Close Brothers. Must be the best backed horse in any handicap.
Report stormey1 February 14, 2019 5:41 AM GMT
the prob they have with Glen Forsa is that it needs another run over fences to qualify for the Close Bros race so id say its a case of trying to find a race to run the horse in which they would quite happily get beaten in and the handicap mark gets left alone.
to be fair running it in the Kingmaker gives them exactly that opportunity,nice spin round and finish bout 3rd not too close
Report differentdrum February 14, 2019 11:52 AM GMT
Are you saying he needs three runs over fences to qualify? I assumed he just needed a racing weight.

If he beats Kalashnikov then it is goodbye to this race. That isn't a forlorn possibility. It is very difficulty not to try as hard as you might with a horse who jumps well and wants to lead.
Report stormey1 February 14, 2019 2:53 PM GMT
yea you must have 3 chase runs to qualify for a handicap so they have to run somewhere
Report differentdrum February 14, 2019 4:02 PM GMT
Can you (or someone else) paste the specific entry rules because I think you just need be given a qualifying rating?
Report sc1883 February 14, 2019 4:20 PM GMT
To run in a handicap chase at the festival you will need at least 3 runs over fences
Report differentdrum February 14, 2019 5:30 PM GMT
I don't think you can guarantee it losing tomorrow so taken the big price for the JLT. That could easily be a relatively weak race.
Report sc1883 February 15, 2019 2:00 PM GMT
Think the handicap mark is gone now on Glen Forsa lol
Report duffy February 15, 2019 2:01 PM GMT
Arkle or JLT for sure, I grabbed the 33's and 25's respectively as he went clear with 3 to jump, just has to do the hard bit nowSilly
Report FOYLESWAR February 15, 2019 2:17 PM GMT
well done with that duffy ! quick thinking got ya some cracking prices on an impressive winner ,what d ya reckon he will go for ? if me the it has to be the arkle
Report duffy February 15, 2019 2:28 PM GMT
Well we know he stays further so you wouldn't be against the Arkle as the strong pace will suit him as he looks like he'll travel through that well, however again as he does stay further and the likely looking weaker field might tempt them for the longer race, incidentally Kalahnikov himself would be better suited to the longer trip, he got exposed today trying to jump and travel against a quicker horse and is surely going to be better seen going further.
Report differentdrum February 15, 2019 2:32 PM GMT
Despite people looking at a two mile race and suggesting he naturally goes Arkle it would be very strange to go anywhere other than the JLT.

Today it was a small field on testing ground with the favourite not running anywhere near his best. He got away with the trip today because of the nature of the race. Look at his previous runs. It was nearly 3 miles at Chepstow. A speed test at Cheltenham would be totally different task.

He stays and jumps and the JLT is the much easier race to win.
Report duffy February 15, 2019 2:46 PM GMT
Yeah, fair comments dd, and you're probably right, I wasn't really dogmatic about the Arkle hence why I got on both races as quick as I could, but perhaps I was thinking about Somersby's near miss and them trying to avenge that defeat in the race.Grin
Report differentdrum February 15, 2019 3:52 PM GMT
No guarantees I am right. Theory might be sound but there are plenty of times when connections may choose a different path. I think Somersby was slightly different having been placed in a Supreme. Absolutely no chance that Glen Forsa would ever have been placed in a Supreme. In fact he was outpaced and well beaten in an ordinary novice hurdle on good ground.

I sympathise with those on at double figure prices for the Close Brothers. I was one of them. He was the handicap 'good thing' of the meeting and bookmakers have had a great result. Having read today and backed him yesterday for the JLT it would be a massive double whammy if he went the Arkle route. If he went Arkle and won I could accept it but if he goes there and gets beat it won't be good viewing.
Report duffy February 15, 2019 3:57 PM GMT
It certainly shows their confidence in the horse that they have been quite willing to blow as you say dd that handicap mark which as we can really see now would have made him massively attractive to say the least.

Watching him again today, he a bit scary at his fences, not because he's bad but because he's so good, he jumps them really fast but he's so economical it's almost dangerous, he hurdles his fences and gives them no air whatsoever, there's zero room for error that's for sure.
Report differentdrum February 15, 2019 5:00 PM GMT
Debrief on Racing TV said owner the Arkle so that's probably it. I think it is crazy to take today's race as proof that he is a two miler but the owner was happy for Somersby to continually hit his head against a brick wall so maybe not such such a surprise.

In my opinion he wins the JLT but will be very lucky to even place in an Arkle. He isn't quick enough for that test.
Report duffy February 15, 2019 5:18 PM GMT
He ran it in the same time as the Scilly Isles, slightly better ground granted, but he was exuberant and a tiny bit keen and had Kalashnikov going a stride too quick than he wanted to from very early on so I've seen worse decisions.
Report differentdrum February 15, 2019 5:53 PM GMT
Whatever the time was today's race is not comparable to an Arkle. It wasn't competitive in terms of numbers and the favourite has not performed. On the day he might not have beaten a great deal. I think he will even struggle to lead an Arkle. My guess would be he is unplaced in the Arkle and never runs over the trip again.

If they really thought he had the speed for an Arkle why wait until now to run him over the trip?
Report impossible123 February 15, 2019 6:19 PM GMT
I beg to differ; Kalashnikov ran his race, but just could not match Glen Forsa (GF) in the jumping department over 2m - it was too quick for K. I'd run GF in the Arkle hoping to break the rhythm of Le Richebourg and/or Lalor - these 2 will need to be slick too to stay in touch with him.

The alternative is the JLT however, Defi De Seuil and Lostintranslation with stamina proven, but no GF, I believe. Also, Kalashnikov could re-oppose too.

My preference for GF will be the Arkle.
Report differentdrum February 15, 2019 9:11 PM GMT
Presumably, you have Glen Forsa on a rating of 170?

Kalashnikov had a stone in hand on ratings and was beaten 19 lengths. Are you really suggesting Glen Forsa has just improved 30lbs? The writing was on the wall 3 out.

Kalashnikov 6/7 left handed (runner up in Supreme), 0/3 right handed.

Absolutely no chance he ran his race.

I can see why those who have backed the front two in the JLT might want to see Glen Forsa in the Arkle.
Report unclepuncle March 10, 2019 2:40 PM GMT
Obviously a very closely knit handicap with only 7lb covering the field but A Plus Tard looks to have outstanding claims.
Report dunlaying March 11, 2019 12:34 PM GMT
I like Good Man Pat here . Never really looked comfortable behind Bags Groove and this track might suit him better . Has form on heavy and appears to be improving .
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