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Hibore
30 Dec 18 17:26
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Date Joined: 23 Jun 07
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We have a number of threads about certain contenders but not a thread to discuss the race as a whole. I think the race has become clearer over Xmas with horses ruling themselves out rather than enhancing their chances. The shape of the race is also perhaps easier to work out if you dismiss certain runners that may take up their chances in other races.

At this moment their are only 6-7 runners that have shown enough to be considered feasible winners of the race. Native River, Kemboy, Clan Des Obeaux, Road to Respect, Thistlecrack of those who have run and Presenting Percy and maybe Waiting Patiently of those who haven’t. Other horses could join the party over the next 6 weeks or so.

I put up Native River last year at 16/1 about this time after and currently think on all known evidence he’s the horse with least answers to find. I backed him for this year at 9/1 straight after the the race but at 11/2 antepost he’s now short enough 3 months out. 9/2 NRNB e/w with bet356 could be a decent play as the race could cut up badly and if he wins the Denman he could be 5/2 by the time of the race. Also Coneygree is unlikely to run I’d guess and should be aimed at something less taxing. This will allow Native to get to the front or at least won’t get revved up by him bombing off.

The 3 horses I have most doubts about are Clan Des Obeaux (course and distance), Thistlecrack (distance) and Waiting Patiently (distance). Kemboy is very short in the betting now but is improving. He looks a similar horse to Bellshill to me and wonder if he would last out a Gold Cup. I would like to see him in the Cotswold but think he’ll stay in Ireland.

Presenting Percy is very very short and no value at all. He’s obviously a good horse but has so many questions to answer regarding distance and class. 5/1 when he’s not run and keep getting pulled for ground and not being 100% wouldn’t interest many people I’d guess.

The 2nd horse I have backed e/w as well as Natuve and think is very good value is Road to Respect. He ran a good race in last year’s Gold Cup and would have been 3rd if he’d jumped better. The jumping still needs working on but he has a bit of class and ran on stoutly up the hill. He had excuses behind Kemboy the other day and at 12/1 NRNB is a great price for a horse guaranteed to be running all the way to line in the Gold Cup.

So I’m on 9/1 win (from March 2018) Native River and 12/1 e/w NRNB (14/1 available now on exchange) Road to Respect. Of the odds now Road to Respect is more a 8/1 shot in my book.

I’d be interested in others thoughts as we had some good discussions last year.

Hibore

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Replies: 204
By:
The Dragon
When: 31 Dec 18 11:26
two horses that you have bot mentioned that i have an eye on are SIZING JOHN at 20/1 CD winner but unsure of its current status Health wise  and Definatly RED at 33/1 but again unsure of whether it will pitch up . If it does it will not be a 33/1 shot for sure.

Presenting Percy is incredible short and i backed it some time a go at 6/1so will leave that one on that . More hope than promise given the events so far this season.

Agree with your comments re Native River and Road to respect and Mite Bite cannot be as bad as he has been this season so could go well,at a price (currently 16/1) which is a good price for a class animal and last years fav.

I like sizing Tennessee also but no idea what it will go for?
By:
Hibore
When: 31 Dec 18 14:29
One of my friends knows Phil and Julie Martin very well. With him we have represented their horses at a few big meetings recently. They feel Definitely Red left his Gold Cup chance behind when he won the Cotswold in Jan. They have to make the call if they repeat the same schedule as last year or get him there fresh. I would love to see him win Grin

Regarding Sizzing John I don’t think we can consider until he’s run.

Elegant escape would not be a forlorn e/w on soft going.
By:
The Dragon
When: 31 Dec 18 15:00
useful info Hibore Cheers. I agree with SJ in terms of wait and see but one to have on your side if he gets there
By:
The Dragon
When: 01 Jan 19 13:52
sizing Tenessee out for the seasonCry
By:
SoYouThink
When: 02 Jan 19 18:52
Is Anibale Fly a forgotten horse? He was staying on at the end of the race last year.
By:
The Dragon
When: 03 Jan 19 08:10
native river by the way is fav for the national mmmmmmmm???????
By:
Hibore
When: 03 Jan 19 11:27
The bookies are not taking any risks.

If he ran well in the Gold Cup and was then given weight 2 or 3lbs under his official rating when the weights are published Tizzard may well go for it.

He would be favourite in my book if he was to compete.
By:
impossible123
When: 10 Jan 19 14:52
No Waiting Patiently, but he's in the Ryanair (only entry) at 7/1 (here); he's only 8, next year perhaps, all being well.
By:
irishone
When: 13 Jan 19 08:54
Money to be made here
Top two are ground dependent
If they are ruled out
Who goes on good ?
By:
impossible123
When: 13 Jan 19 15:40
PP is wholly ground dependent; the other fancy ones are not eg NR and CDO - the former is better on softish but not totally inconvenienced by it. Similarly, the Irish contingent are too; MB is great on good - will he recapture last season's form?
By:
GI MAC
When: 13 Jan 19 19:08
PP won the pertempts final on good ground.
By:
impossible123
When: 13 Jan 19 21:21
This season good ground is also what's been preventing him for debuting, according to his trainer assuming he's not been economical with the truth.
By:
irishone
When: 14 Jan 19 10:27
Pp wants soft side of good , runs better with his toe in
By:
irishone
When: 14 Jan 19 10:31
Sizing
By:
irishone
When: 14 Jan 19 10:32
Sizing john springs to mind ! ExcitedLaughLaugh
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 14 Jan 19 11:17
PP is wholly ground dependent

No he isnt.

There is a big difference in wanting to start the campaign on soft ground to avoid injury and saying the horse can't ever go on it.
By:
irishone
When: 14 Jan 19 12:10
Yes ...seen many a class good ground horse win on heavy . Percy relishes good to soft , but i saw him at galway win on heavy. Thats doesnt make him a heavy ground horse..... and yer man reynolds does whatever p g says so if he aint fit to run on heavyish ground thats it....
By:
impossible123
When: 14 Jan 19 17:42
There are quite a few runners who'd enjoy a cut in the ground too 3eg Native River, Clan Des Obeaux and Kemboy 3 PP's principle protagonists.
By:
irishone
When: 14 Jan 19 18:38
Pp will run whatever but wouldnt want good or heavy
By:
brownie
When: 14 Jan 19 22:18
kemboy's preferred ground is good ( although he can go on any )
By:
Hibore
When: 16 Jan 19 10:42
Listened to the Gold Cup RP podcast last night with Tom S. Thought his view on Clan Des Obeaux being clear favourite was a bit bizarre..yes he won the King George very well but the Gold Cup is a totally different test. His back form has more holes in it than swiss cheese and his jumping can moderate at best (as Sandown run showed).

He seemed to forget the previous race at Haydock where the emphasis was slightly more on stamina than the speed test around Kempton he was beaten fair and square. The pace of the first mile in the Gold Cup will be slower than the King George obviously and that is where CDO excelled at Kempton going flat out and putting the likes of Native and Bristol massively on the back foot. It would be suicide to go anything like that pace in March.

To me CDO looks an exceptional horse over a fast 3 miles if his jumping holds together (as it did) as he has a very high cruising speed and stays extremely well. Next years King George could be exceptional with Waiting Patiently and Altior likely to take him on.

Tom kept going on about him being a strong stayer for the Gold Cup trip but I find nothing to back that up at this stage. A horse to be able to show the speed demonstrated on the 26th Dec and stay strongly up the Cheltenham hill is a rare find, and only Kauto has shown that. Long Run ground out the KG on soft ground against Captain Chris.

Am I missing something that makes me reconsider CDO ?
By:
impossible123
When: 16 Jan 19 16:12
CDO is still only 7, and improving; Thistlecrack ran his best race (jumped his best) so far in the King George similarly, Native River (NR) despite the inadequate trip. I think it will between CDO, NR and another stayer.
By:
Hibore
When: 16 Jan 19 19:18
How do you know CDO is a stayer. If Altior won in a similar fashion later this year in the KG would he be Fav for Gold Cup ?
By:
Hibore
When: 16 Jan 19 19:18
How do you know CDO is a stayer. If Altior won in a similar fashion later this year in the KG would he be Fav for Gold Cup ?
By:
GAZO
When: 16 Jan 19 20:15
if you take out cdo king george win you could probally name your own price and even beating thistlecrack the chaser wouldnt be the best form in the world even allowing for the fact he did do it very well,the king george race sort of fell apart with native river appearing to not like the course,bristol de mai getting knocked around and then falling and bringing down the 2nd fav waiting patiently and might bite not showing up,he probally is still improving but he needs to especially the form he has shown on undulating tracks
By:
impossible123
When: 16 Jan 19 23:52
I think Native River (NR) is a reliable yardstick; Thistlecrack jumped his best at Kempton and was not beaten far last season either in the same race; Bristol De Mai ran best at Haydock - that one can be certain.

Might Bite (MB) is not the same horse this season as last; won at Kempton, and improved to run NR close at the Festival and only outstayed. Let's hope he could show his true form after his wind-op (here's hoping).

CDO was going like a winner throughout the race at Kempton despite Thistlecrack taking it up 2 out going well, I believe Thistle crack was outstayed once again at Kempton as he was by Many Clouds in the Cotswold Chase at Cheltenham; he would be outstayed again at the Festival.

Last season's 1-2 NR and MB have not won a race between them so far; the RSA winner (weak race) has yet to be seen, but is fav (bonkers!). Given these scenarios CDO has every right to be challenging for favouritism having won the King George (MB was fav), and he's only 7 and improving.

I think CDO has better credentials than Kemboy who won a funny race at Leopardstown where Road To Respect (RTR) was 3rd; RTR was 12l behind NR and MB in the last renewal.
By:
irishone
When: 17 Jan 19 13:46
who said empty vessels make most noise ?
By:
buddeliea
When: 27 Jan 19 10:05
Just taken 41 on here for Defo Red

Different prep this season,good horse on his day if conditions are in his favour.
By:
Autocue
When: 27 Jan 19 10:28
One horse I won't be backing even to place is Frodon. I'm not a fan of the Ryanair but it was introduced for horses like Frodon who would be absolutely ideal for it. If Frodon doesn't run in it, that would be due to it being rightly perceived as a second rate race and would further emphasise what a pointless event it is.
By:
Somerset Sam
When: 27 Jan 19 20:22
Couldn't agree more on Frodon, he barely got home yesterday in a small field where he made his own running.

I appreciate theres only 1 Gold Cup, but Id be amazed if this horse got anywhere close in a truly run Gold Cup. Its a brutal race run at a relentless gallop, favouring true and proven stayers. On yesterday's showing, the petrol tank was running low on the run in yesterday.
By:
the bloob
When: 27 Jan 19 21:50
I can see it being a big field this year, and if she can get him prominent on the rail again it would be a major plus, those coming from further back will have to travel a lot further. With his high natural cruising speed I can see him being right there coming to the last, it's just a question of lasting home which would be a big ask
By:
duffy
When: 28 Jan 19 02:52
The ratings these horses get alotted these days is madness, you couldn't convince me in a million years that Frodon is top class, I was staggered to see he's in fact rated 169Shocked
By:
Autocue
When: 28 Jan 19 10:23
With that rating he ought to have won by further and he did have the run of the race. I thought the jockey judged it very nicely with a steady pace to make sure it wasn't a test of stamina. I doubt she'll get an easy lead in the Gold Cup. I do applaud connections going for the latter though. I think there's a place for a two and a half mile championship in Britain but having it at Cheltenham is just jockey club greed. It's like having championships for the top plumber and electrician then sticking in an event for the jack of all trades. I'm sure there are lots of tracks that would love to host well funded championship races for the lesser events.
By:
buddeliea
When: 04 Feb 19 07:45
Bellshill throws his hat into the ring.
Building up nicely.
By:
buddeliea
When: 04 Feb 19 07:50
This race is going to be a real good one this year I feel, and the winner is really going to have to stay bl00dy well.
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 04 Feb 19 07:59
seconded ^^^
By:
Ramruma
When: 04 Feb 19 09:40
A fascinating contest but perhaps a poor Gold Cup.
By:
buddeliea
When: 04 Feb 19 12:10
Well they are all turning up at the moment,touch wood!!
Winner last year and all the placed horses,winners of the KG,Lexus,Irish Gold Cup,Betfair chase.
Could not be any better in that regard.
Looks a real competitive race.
Superstars?? Maybe not, but their may well be one or two emerge.
By:
buddeliea
When: 04 Feb 19 12:12
Oh, and the RSA winner, who just happens to be favourite.
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