Cheltenham Festival

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01 Dec 18 16:45
Date Joined: 07 Sep 15
| Topic/replies: 19,632 | Blogger: impossible123's blog
Santini put up a scintillating performance winning at Newbury today; jumped well but for one. He's only 4/1 for this; next nominated race is the Kauto Star Novices at Kempton on Boxing Day.

Have we seen the winner of this race? He'll go very close, all being well, I believe.
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Report differentdrum December 1, 2018 6:02 PM GMT
Scintillating? I presume you have backed him?

The horses he beat today would be a million in an RSA and today's second favourite, Kilbricken Storm, has run a shocker. I don't think he did much more than confirm he could jump on slow ground.

Race already discussed under 2018 thread below.
Report impossible123 December 1, 2018 7:14 PM GMT
Yes, I have only for a small stake at 4/1 as I was impressed with his jumping just as I was with Lalor; Kilbricken Storm under-performed (rather not jumped) nevertheless, Santini could only do as much to win. Santini (if memory serves) was not quite right at Cheltenham when fav, but atoned at Aintree a few weeks later.

Maybe one from across Ireland could be even more scintillating but until then 4/1 is a fair price, I think.
Report baNjackst December 1, 2018 7:15 PM GMT
most impressive
Report duffy December 1, 2018 8:54 PM GMT
Forget what he beat, at this stage what you're looking for is technique and the visual impression the horse gives you, the horse delivered in some style today IMO and I was greatly impressed with him...wouldn't go as far to say scintillating, but he was bloody good.Grin
Report Catch Me ifyoucan December 2, 2018 8:43 PM GMT
Catch Me ifyoucan • December 2, 2018 3:47 PM GMT
Davy - we have a lot of very “big guns” to come out yet, there are some great beginners chases to come in Ireland (when asked about Delta Work for JLT or RSA.
Report differentdrum December 3, 2018 12:13 PM GMT
If you fancy Santini I would have major concerns about his flop at last year's Festival. He never looked like winning at any stage and I haven't read any excuses for the performance. Delta Work produced a way better performance over a trip short of his best. He has also shown that winning at Cheltenham isn't an issue. Hype is the only reason Santini is the current favourite. 

I would take little notice of public comments from Russell as he tends to play down everything. You would get as much useful information off JP. They won't have any bigger guns than Delta Work and it is obvious that an extra half mile would see him in an even better light.
Report wess December 3, 2018 12:26 PM GMT
Understatement that Nico did not give Santani a great ride in the AB. Never really put in race and always kept mid div before staying on up the hill.Must say I'd like to see him ridden like Denman in his RSA. Get up front.... use his seemingly good jumping to keep others at bay.... as he has proven twice that he comes up the hill etc..
Report impossible123 December 3, 2018 12:38 PM GMT
I believe Santini was rushed for Cheltenham and underperformed in the Albert Bartlett; Nico looked after him too. But he atoned big time at Aintree though.

I like the way Santini seemed to flick over his fences, apart from one; his opposition were no slouch either. Until another one catches my eye I'll have him as my main bet for this race.
Report irishone December 3, 2018 7:36 PM GMT
Newbury form repeated at cheltenham ?
Would you compare a sheet of hardboard to a sheet of corrugated iron ?
Report foxy December 3, 2018 8:11 PM GMT
the best winner of the novice chase won by santini on saturday was barton bank but in those days the race took place at worcester.
Report sageform December 4, 2018 8:04 PM GMT
They must have moved the Worcester Novice chase from the Friday. I was involved with Lucky Bay who won it in 2002 beating Joly Bey and One Knight who went on to win the RSA that season.
Report shockster December 4, 2018 8:34 PM GMT
Cracking Smart is staying over hurdles says Gordon Elliot.
Report impossible123 December 19, 2018 9:36 PM GMT
Santini's next race is the Kauto Star Novices Chase (Feltham) on Boxing Day at Kempton. It could be a good day for Hendo with Buveur D'Air and Might Bite later.
Report irishone December 19, 2018 9:53 PM GMT
That isn't going to tell you what you need to know.
The horse was exposed in the AB last year
Exposed by the track and the pace
Neither conquerer that day has turned cartwheels since
Kempton, Newbury and Aintree are galloping flat tracks
Milan's need a gallop and as for jumping .....not the greatest of records
Report Quevega06 December 20, 2018 10:05 PM GMT
Irish I totally disagree,I just think the horse was inexperienced at Cheltenham more than anything. Remember they were going to miss it altogether
Report irishone December 21, 2018 5:56 PM GMT
Think all novices are learning bud, don't think he liked the hill and thought nico gave him a decent ride,not sure he gets 24f at Cheltenham. It was his ground as well last year.
Report Hanx December 22, 2018 11:41 AM GMT
Chuck Vinndication into this thread now, after his win yesterday and Kim Bailey saying the RSA was more the plan than the JLT.

Still to go left-handed (and The Scilly Isles Chase at Sandown is reportedly next so if Cheltenham is the plan, then that'll be his first shot that way round0 and probably needs plenty of rain but.....take it away gentlemen!
Report irishone December 22, 2018 5:35 PM GMT
Sandown r handed ?
Report Hanx December 22, 2018 6:39 PM GMT
Yeah - if they do the Scilly Isles Chase THEN go the the Fez, THAT (The RSA) will be the first try left-handed.

Hope I've explained it okay! Grin
Report dunlaying December 23, 2018 3:54 PM GMT
I am not convinced that Santini is the real deal . Not yet , anyway . Both The Worlds End and Bags Groove could be better .
Report sageform December 24, 2018 11:39 AM GMT
If Topofthegame behaves himself at the start he looks a class above these to me.
Report wess December 24, 2018 11:42 AM GMT
All about opinions. I am trying to get a price Santini Gold Cup 2020...!
Report sageform December 24, 2018 1:51 PM GMT
Santini could be very good but Topofthegame was second in the Coral final under a big weight and his second to Defi du Seul over 2.3 miles after losing 25 lengths at the start with Black Op behind was awesome.
Report sageform December 26, 2018 4:25 PM GMT
Got Topofthegame in front of Santini but it was one of those days for me with seconds in the Kauto Star and KG. As far as Cheltenham is concerned I would still be with Topofthegame.
Report differentdrum December 26, 2018 9:16 PM GMT
Crazy that Delta Work wasn't favourite for this before today and even crazier now.

His form was already better than Santini before the confirmation from Le Richebourg.

Santini never looked likely and was flattered to finish as close as he did. He looked slow. Usual Cheltenham ground and likely he will be in trouble. That said the slog last year should have suited and he never looked likely to win that race either. He remains no value whatsoever.

I would have thought it is likely that La Bague Au Roi will miss the Festival.
Report irishone December 26, 2018 10:54 PM GMT
The confidence in santini is Henderson based
Can't believe he's still at the top of the market
Report Quevega06 December 27, 2018 12:29 AM GMT
Santini reminds to Bob's Worth alot of similarities. I don't know if it's the bookies being cautious but I would still be willing to bet him at chelt if the price was right
Report sageform December 27, 2018 8:30 AM GMT
Really happy with a bet of 19 Topofthegame on here straight after Exeter. He should be clear fav. of the UK runners at least.
Report differentdrum December 27, 2018 10:43 AM GMT
I think Bobs Worth always looked more straightforward than Santini does. He also trotted up in an Albert Bartlett and he was also able to beat Sire De Grugy in a two mile hurdle on good ground. Other than they are trained by Henderson I can't see too many similarities.
Report impossible123 December 27, 2018 1:43 PM GMT
I think Cheltenham will suit Santini more than the front two yesterday given a quicker pace and more testing track; the uphill finish could play into his hand too.
Report differentdrum December 29, 2018 10:55 PM GMT
Even as a supporter I don't think you could say that Delta Work did anything other than get the job done.

His jumping in the early stages was nothing like as good as the previous starts, particularly in the early stages, and he could easily have been brought down. That said he was good at the last three fences and he was strong from the last to the line.

He is now about the right price.
Report irishone December 30, 2018 12:20 PM GMT
delta seemed to be a lot better in the jumping department when they were going at pace
Report FOYLESWAR December 30, 2018 1:44 PM GMT
the other giggi runner would have given delta a race if he had met the last better dont know if he woulda won tho!
Report nocturnal December 31, 2018 12:53 AM GMT
Delta Work.............Different Angle

Kemboy  6yr old   6m 6.5 secs

Delta Work  5yr old  6m 2.3 secs

Same weight
Same ground
Same distance
Same amount fences

Add in your jumping analysis,and the fact he was hampered on the first circuit.

Then think of him beating Kemboy by 4.2 secs in the savills.

His performance on 29th December 2018,for a novice,can be summed up in one word.

Report differentdrum December 31, 2018 11:10 AM GMT
As I have said I really like Delta Work but I can't take that comparison, interesting as it might be, as a reasonable guide regarding their relative merits.

I fully appreciate time analysis has become the new left field but it will never do that much for me.

I assume they went pretty slowly in the early stages of the Kemboy race which would presumably account for the difference.

Despite the overall time I am happy to stick with the original thought that Kemboy was far more impressive than Delta Work.
Report The Dragon December 31, 2018 11:17 AM GMT
cant have santini personally , anyone a view on Vindication?
Report FOYLESWAR December 31, 2018 12:06 PM GMT
david mullins said they went very very slow ,even when we took it up we still went slow ,no one took us on !" kemboy should improve he could be a serious horse "................
Report FOYLESWAR December 31, 2018 12:07 PM GMT
my thoughts would be to take the form of the savills with caution !
Report FOYLESWAR December 31, 2018 7:23 PM GMT
how is delta work  a bigger price  than santini?
Report The Dragon January 1, 2019 2:55 PM GMT
lostintranslation inthe mix after that 20/1
Report impossible123 January 1, 2019 3:20 PM GMT
That was the initial impression of his trainer, but jockey nominated the JLT for him.
Report The Dragon January 1, 2019 3:39 PM GMT
tizzerd bigging it up big time, thinks a lot of the horse for sure
Report differentdrum January 7, 2019 11:22 PM GMT
Just reading a preview on Sporting Life. Apparently, Delta Work CLEARLY has the option of the National Hunt Chase. You do wonder how these people draw a wage. There should be no chance of Delta Work going anywhere near the longer race. Did the writer miss him beating the near enough Arkle favourite over the shorter trip and that despite fluffing the last?
Report sageform January 8, 2019 9:53 AM GMT
Unless you want to back a horse for 2 or 3 races at long prices, it is best in my experience to wait until there is only one realistic target left at the Festival before having a bet. I do have a bet on Topofthegame for the RSA at 19 but that looked worth the risk before Boxing Day and he has halved in price but I will be laying the bet off and then backing him again once the final decs are known. I also backed Black Op for the JLT on the same day and that is now a loser.
Report Somerset Sam January 30, 2019 6:32 PM GMT
Going over previous races of those at bigger prices and one that stood out at a best price of 50/1 was Top Ville Ben.

An ex Henderson inmate, he's won 2 out of 2 since going over fences, winning over 3m both times at Hexham (you know he'll stay) and Wetherby (decent test of jumping).

The Wetherby defeat giving 6lbs of Uppertown Prince, reads very well especially looking at that horses run at Aintree against Santini and OK Corral towards the end of last season. He was beaten when he fell and Top Ville Ben's jumping was very good with fences looking to have been the making of him after some sloppy falls earlier in his career over hurdles.

Cliche alert but if he was trained by a bigger stable he'd be nowhere near 50/1, he's entered up to run in the G2 Towton at Wetherby on Saturday and is being well supported for that race as well.

He could run a huge race in the RSA at a price.
Report equine flew February 25, 2019 9:33 PM GMT
I have been a fan of Crucial Role for a while.  Such a great jumper and can go on any ground.   Unexposed and Skeltons seem to be hitting form.

Has entries in both the Ultima and the RSA.  Although the handicap run is probably more likely, the RSA could be a more attractive and easier route.  After todays win will be only rated a few pounds behind the top rated in this race.   It is also a race that  often cuts up pretty badly.

b365 going a crazy 80/1 NRNB.   I cannot see the down side as if he runs I cannot see it being bigger than 20/1.
Report Can't Catch Me March 4, 2019 1:54 PM GMT
Santini very weak and some talk of him having jarred himself when schooling yesterday.

Doesn't look good ExcitedCry
Report Can't Catch Me March 4, 2019 1:56 PM GMT
No idea how that first emoji got added.
Report impossible123 March 4, 2019 4:38 PM GMT
Santini is a big drifter, manipulation or something untoward with him? His stablemate OtBS has been backed as a result.
Report foxy March 4, 2019 4:43 PM GMT
Shoe came of yesterday had his foot in something like a bandage over night seems the yard are not over concerned.
Report Can't Catch Me March 4, 2019 4:44 PM GMT
Yep just about to post that foxy. NJH saying no reason he wont run. Probably not ideal, but sure the same happened with Altior didnt it?
Report impossible123 March 4, 2019 4:47 PM GMT
I think massive, massive manipulation on Santini. I tried to help myself to some, but each time the bots got in the way.
Report foxy March 4, 2019 4:52 PM GMT
Not sure it was the same thing catch me but yes something did happen to him last year.
Report willie the milk March 4, 2019 5:30 PM GMT
Can't help especially as they missed his prep and it is a gross of a horse that takes a lot of getting fit.
Report impossible123 March 4, 2019 5:33 PM GMT
Hendo: "Santini lost a shoe yesterday and the vet poulticed it as a precautionary. He's fine...and we see no reason why he won't run in the RSA."

Hendo was unavailable for a comment on the drift as he was in a meorial service.
Report foxy March 4, 2019 5:36 PM GMT
Matt chapman said on the tele Nicky has handled it well been so open with the public bringing everybody up to date with things.

Around 30 hours after the shoe came off.
Report foxy March 4, 2019 5:39 PM GMT
In fairness it was a better effort than the binocular episode.
Report impossible123 March 4, 2019 5:43 PM GMT
Maybe Hendo thought it was not a concern or worry as it was not something very unusual. However, what I find repulsive is those in the know use this to manipulate market to make a quick buck.
Report foxy March 4, 2019 5:54 PM GMT
There lies the problem impossible perhaps those who pressed the lay button this afternoon will end up paying.
Report impossible123 March 4, 2019 6:23 PM GMT
I hope so. But I think they might be too shrewd with the inside info eg they could have bought back on the cheap (with possible free bets in-tow) after knowing their actions had initiated a sudden sell-off; Santini drifted out to 10 here, and reward post the race.
Report impossible123 March 6, 2019 11:40 AM GMT
Hendo on Santini: "All is well in the world of Santini, and we're firmly back on track for the RSA!"

And the softer the better. Happy days for backers!
Report marychain1 March 6, 2019 3:05 PM GMT
Mister Malarkey removed from the Arkle and the 4-miler. Reckon this is the race for him. He's the sort of thorough stayer that you need for this. Will be keeping on when some fancier types have cried enough.
Report unclepuncle March 6, 2019 4:25 PM GMT
The World's End only has the RSA option now - 33/1 seems a fair e/w price to me.
Report dunlaying March 7, 2019 10:44 PM GMT
Drinks Interval could be a rick here . 66/1 is too big and looks e/w value NRNB .
Report Hibore March 8, 2019 2:05 PM GMT
Massive drift on Santini - looks terminal this time
Report Hibore March 8, 2019 2:05 PM GMT
Massive drift on Santini - looks terminal this time
Report ACStafford March 8, 2019 4:17 PM GMT
Henderson said the injury resurfaced this morning. Apparently he's still hopeful of getting there but there's a fair element of doubt about it now.
Report impossible123 March 8, 2019 5:39 PM GMT
Santini's participation is still in the balance; far from ideal prep to the biggest race in his career so far.
Report the bloob March 8, 2019 7:54 PM GMT
Henderson has a habit of doing this, remember Binocular? or Altior last year? don't believe a word he says!
Report impossible123 March 8, 2019 8:21 PM GMT
In similar circumstance, normally, the horse would only have been re-shod a couple of days later and no sooner. Let's hope Santini will be ok to race on the day.
Report the bloob March 8, 2019 8:39 PM GMT
of course he will be, it's a made-up issue to get the price up, he does it all the time
Report lockup March 8, 2019 8:43 PM GMT
just had a bit e.w Mr Malarky 14s with the forecast weather could be a tough slog which will suit fine.
Report dunlaying March 10, 2019 1:43 PM GMT
I have backed The Worlds End and Drinks Interval .
Report Catch Me ifyoucan March 13, 2019 11:51 AM GMT
Delta Work (Pertemps winner 2018) is stating the obvious but I don't like this comment on the Oirish forum...

peckerdunne • March 12, 2019 1:18 PM GMT
a pinch of news this morning..
im told a touch of the cough in Elliots yard
Report sageform March 13, 2019 2:29 PM GMT
See my post from January. My first ante post bet of this season was Topofthegame after he got so close to Defi du Seuil after giving him 20 lengths start. I have never even considered another horse for the race but how good is the mare that beat him last time?
Report Catch Me ifyoucan March 13, 2019 2:39 PM GMT
Pity that mare La Bague Au Roi has no entries Devil
Report cardenden January 6, 2020 12:45 PM GMT
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