elegant escape ...

also chucked a few quid at elliots shattered love around 45 on here

Some good points there .
Was at clonmel when shattered love beat miss eyecatcher and was told it would win at cheltenham . A dream come true !
Backed it, put it up on the greyhound forum four weeks prior to cheltenham and did she improve or what ?
Elegant has not been fully exposed since monksgrange the sandown win was encouraging for one thing, the way the horse finished. His jumping was not good. I think he has an engine but he dives at the odd on and wont get away with that at cheltenham ! Can tizzard sort that out , not sure about that.

Elegant dived at a couple again today, one down the back and one in the straight. Think chepstow better bet that aintree , not concentrating

not too dissapointed with that from elegant escape looks a strong stayer which is what ya need !

Lump on for the Eider Chase.

not a bad run by shattered love ,made a mistake early on but stayed on well enough against min ,anyones guess weather she will stay the gold cup trip or even if she goes for it ,could go ryanaire

both elegant escape and shattered love have entrys over the xmas period ,elegant escape welsh national and shattered love savills chase and king george .

one who is a massive price and seems to be improving is noel meades snow falcoln ,ended last season winning the kerry national at listowel and beat shattered love and monalee in the ar cars chase  chase at down royal .meade has said " we have learned a bit about him  he needs time between his races and needsa bit of cut in the ground  " a massive price atm around 150-200 on here and i have had a few quid on.  a fair bit to find but looks as though they may have found the key to him and looks to be on the up  and the price is way too big imo .

snow falcon officially rated 156 so fair bit to find but had shattered love and monalee behind (admittedly probably fitter than those 2 ) but those 2 are way higher in the betting than snow falcon  and meade has hinted it will have to be graded races from now on . a bit of a speculative one who stays 3 miles well .

jumped better today and did it well enough, its an open gold cup so who knows,  going the right way and stamina no problem.

synchronised and native river last 2 winners of welsh national  carrying over 11 stone , fitzy talking about grand national ,hope he goes gold cup no stand out horse so far ,could be on their  minds .

B E.  J E S U S

that must have been some RSA......

given the stat for 7yos in the Grand National they would be well advised to look elsewhere for now. I have antepost on the Gold Cup so I'm hoping they give it a try, what else is there for it? I'm hoping the handicapper clobbers him but I doubt it given he was already 4lb well in today

owner john ramains said after the race "i asked  tom o brian to stay out of trouble during the race and he did it to perfection ,i was always confident as he is a strong stayer, i will have to talk it over with colin and he may have other ideas but we will have to go to cheltenham in march , i appreciate the gold cup is a hot race but i suspect we will take our chance as there arnt many other options !

Looks a proper stayer to me.further the better. National type.
Think the Gold Cup would be too quick for him,unless soft conditions.

he does look a grinder budd but if ya look at the time of the welsh national it was the fastest for 7 years ,granted he carried less weight than native river ,but a streetfighter who you would want on your side if in with a chance at the last with the hill to come .

Imagine him in this years race Foyles......could you really think he would be close enough at the last?
Native River has the combination of setting a good pace and staying really well.
I don't see that with EE.

Having said that,i would not blame them for having a go at the Gold Cup.
Might Bite aint the same horse this season and NR, although running ok in defeat on unsuitable tracks,may not be the same next March as he was this year. Plus there is no real stand out Gold Cup fav this season.
We have the RSA winner as fav, who has not been seen yet and has it all to prove at this level.
So every right to have a crack at the race.

old news but colin tizzard has confirmed elegant escape will go straight to gold cup . rated 159 now elegant escape  and the welsh national run puts him in the mix imo .

tizz seems to have changed his mind elegant escape possible for the cotswald chase on saturday

sorry for the delay in answering budd ,can you really see ee being close enough at the last ? i think that he has the ability as shwon in the welsh national which was run at a very fast pace ,the fastest for at least 7 years and the last 2 winners of the welsh national who carried over 11 stone won the gold cup so the welsh nat is not a bad trial . the horse has shown improved form since last season and tizzard has said after the welsh nat  i have had some very good horses in cue card native river etc and he wouldnt be far behind them at this stage and he is only a 6 yo (7 now ). my take on it is he is improving and that time in the welsh nat was 3 secs better than native river  on similar going carrying 4 pound  less was a bit special , was it a fluke ? maybe but at around 40s on here and 33s shops to me is far to big and i have lumped on ! i may be wrong and he may be outclassed but if he is there at the last then the hill should hold no fears .

what he has proved is that he is comfortable off a very strong pace  which is encouraging and stays at least 3 mile 5 ,^^^

Fair comments Foyles.
At those sort of prices its worth a few bob I agree.
I shall have a look when I get home.

Cheers

One good point about EE,is that if you look at the end of the Welsh Nat,when challenged he picked up and started to pull away again.Sign of a good horse.In fact Native River did the exactly same in the same race in 2017.

You talked me into it Foyles,took 33 boosted to 36.75/1

good luck budd fingers crossed ,we will know more tommorow ,decent field for the cotswold, frodon top rated on 169 and 2 of hendos terrefort and valtor plus minnella rocco. proper trial .

OP
good luck with your bet but is the Hennessy
run and although he won the WN,is getting weight
off Yala Enki and beating him around 5L,Gold Cup
form?
I backed him in the Hennessy and he was beat easily
in the end by a stable 2nd string.
  gl though.

tommorow will tell us more budd hopefully he runs well ,you can never tell with this game tho! tommorow  frodon rated 10 pound higher than ee on 169 and he is another in the mix for the gold cup plus a few unexposed ones valtor and  and decent price too but ya cant back em all .

yeah you may be right penzance he is rated 159 so has to go graded races. he may not be good enough tommorow let alone gold cup day but he dont need to improve that much and another positive is that he is a strong stayer on the up .

Penzance
We have a 3/1 fav with no gold cup form,at least EE is a price worth a few bob!

He is still the third string from Tizzard yard!

On paper, but I reckon he will beat Thistlecrack, who Is totally exposed now and don't look to me a Gold Cup horse.
Don't think he will beat NR though, but hes young and seemingly improving,and the Gold Cup could just be the perfect race for him,if conditions on the day suit.
Anyway, at the prices hes worth a dabble I reckon.

hope they go a gallop here !

Clear from that to me he will be outpaced in the Gold Cup

tactical race ,faster pace and bigger field will be more suitable  for elegant escape still in the mix imo

Faster pace and he will be taken off his feet, he was taken off his feet mid race there ffs

we will see all about opinions

Foyleswar agree with Premier here,he is slow and couldn't dress it up any other way, back to nationals imo.

another game effort by EE but I stick to my view that he is the third string at Tizzards and that the RSA form still looks questionable mainly because none of the first 4 have taken on the English Gold cup horses so far.

i may be bias here but put into context he was beaten by a 169 rated horse and another half a furlong he may have won was certainly finishing strongly ,the winner dictated off what looked just a modest pace (havent seen the time ) but the closeness  of the rag till after 2 out suggests to me it was a slowly run affair . dissapointed he didnt win and not saying he will win the gold cup but run not as bad as some suggesting imo!

probably a national winner in waiting just think unless ground comes up very soft he will be found wanting for toe dont think the downhill run to 3 out plays to his strengths.

he was rated 159 before today and he has run a 169 rated horse to 3/4 of a length rec 2 pound, think he would have won in another furlong . probably improved a few pound on the welsh national win . frodon will probably go up a few pounds so not a bad run at all by elegant escape imo .all to play for and one of several who have a chance . if he is there at the last then the hill will hold no fears .

I feared he might just be a bit too far behind the likes of Native River when they meet the hill,and I still think that after today.
But he certainly finishes his races well,and at near 40/1 I am quiet happy and think I will get a run for my money.
At a guess I would say he could well run into 3rd or 4th.
He does seem to be improving though,so you never know!!

Foyles
Best price 25 now....at least we are beating the book mate

Slow horses seldom win Gold Cups and they only do so if conditions are very testing. Synchronised and Native River being two cases in point. I don't know of other winners in recent memory who do not have a tremendous cruising speed and are well able to sit with the pace.

I would give NR and EE no chance unless really soft going prevails (and little if it does - Presenting Percy is far classier and has handled bad conditions happily in the past).

From memory i cant think of a horse
That has won a race over the chase fences
At cheltenham festival
Having made two mistakes ib a race
As i stated at the start of this thread
EE is prone to mistakes
And it cost him the race yesterday

NR got some good form on going better than soft

Two ends of the continuum there. Percy skips across the ground horizontak gait winning in heavy tells you how classy he is. Same with n r vertical gait, pounds the ground , great horse winning on good but more prone to injury .... Only my.opinion

Elegant Escape surely isn't fluent enough over his fences to win a Gold Cup?

Good form, budd, but not Gold Cup winning form. Being unable to go the pace in the KG going to the first fence said it all for me.

The only horse that was ever going to be competitive in the Gold Cup, over 3m 2.5f, in Saturday's race.

You've got a decent price, beatent he market and will be the only race he'll run in if he goes to Cheltenham. Cn see him running on past beaten horses up the hill and who knows where he'll finish in that sort of scenario?

Good luck anyway.

Cyclops

On good ground he finished about 2l behind Sizing John in the Gold Cup,that COULD be good enough to win this year if reproducing that.
He ran in the 4 miler at Cheltenham finishing just behind M Rocco on good/soft,that may not be GC winning form, but it proves he can run well on ground better than soft.
At Haydock this season it was Good Ground and he finished 4l behind the Haydock specialist,at a distance too short and a track that don't suit.
I aint saying as a backer I would not love it soft, as he handles it better than some of the other contenders,but I think the formbook says he can run big races on decent ground.

sam ...........nor was synchronised !

Can't argue with that budd, but my strong feeling is that he's getting slower at the age of nine. In both runs this season he has really struggled to go the pace, embarrassingly so in the KG for a Gold Cup winner.

I fully agree that he's run well on good going; our only point of dispute is that I don't believe at the age of nine, that he can operate well enough on that surface to hold his place in a true run Gold Cup.

cyclops i know you put a lot of effort into the gold cup and i like one quite strongly at a price but wanted to pick your brain as it isn't a race i normally get involved however i am this year ante post, i just wanted your views to put the final jigsaw pieces in my bet together

who are the horses that interest you and any thoughts on the race if you can find any time...

i have the same thoughts in regards what you think above in regards the 2 horses mentioned on the ground but what are you're feelings on some of the others as we stand?

Well yes, if you go on the King George its hard to fancy NR.
But knowing as we do his liking for Cheltenham,plus races that let his stamina play a big part,I still think hes a major player,whatever the ground.
I don't think the age of nine will be any problem either.
I think we will know pretty early which of us is nearer the mark,cos either NR gets to the front and dictates the pace to suit him as last year,or he struggles to do that,in which case he wont be winning.
Intriguing stuff Cyclops.

do you think he is going to get it easy on the lead this year budd on better ground?

doubt that with frodon, might bite and potentially kemboy all likely prominent racers

Not sure mate,but he is the one out of all of those that is guaranteed to get home.
I don't think MB will be in front of NR.
If either of the others are they could ruin their chances of staying well enough?.
Would not surprise me at all if Frodon and Kemboy are settled in just off the pace.
If they do go off then I can see the case for NR struggling, but they may kill their chances as well as his??

not sure they will ruin there chances tbh as native river will be shovelling on the coals himself to keep up, all the horses mentioned will make life very tough for him this year, of course he may get another soft ground cheltenham and in which case he will get loose on the lead imo

Well I don't think the pace will be quick enough to get NR under the cosh personally.
This is the Gold Cup, and horses will not want to lose their race early on.
I think he will lead again whatever the ground,but I agree with you this will be tougher this year.

Interesting reading the comments on his run behind Sizing John which was good ground.
He was up with the pace pretty much all the way,but was headed for a fair part of the race.
As long as hes in a good jumping rhythm he may not have to dictate as he did last year.

All in all....do I think hes more chance on softer ground....yes
do I think he can still win on good or good/soft....yes.

harry, kind of you to value my thoughts.
I'll certainly share them, for what they're worth, but perhaps wait until after Leopardstown this Sunday. The last full-blooded trial, if past years are a guide.

Have plenty of respect for this horse but cant understand anyone backing him for the gold cup
firstly he needs it soft minimum , OK so claisse plays to the media but its unlikely going
secondly he is not fluent at his fences
tizzard has had plenty of time to sort it out and hasn't done so
thirdly the stress of watching him try to negotiate 20 odd Cheltenham fences at pace
would have your hands over your eyes by about halfway
he is a great horse don't get me wrong , he will run through a brick wall for you
but hes no denman and seriously think frodon would be a much better bet
the jump at the last was unreal on saturday

I'm still not convinced that any of the second season horses with the possible exception of PP are as good as NR and MB were last year or Thistlecrack was the year before. If those 3 reproduce their best form they look the best around although they all have questions to answer.

Ive backed him for the Gold Cup, mainly because I thought his price may be value if the ground comes up in his favour.
When a horse is around 40's their are always going to be question marks.
He was 25's when I last looked.

don't cop out on me now cyclops that's the fun of trying to beat the book

no worries if you need to digest the weekend action cyclops, will be pleased to read your thoughts, i've decided to pull the trigger on my fancy but was still interested in you're early thoughts before the races are run as to whether i have a couple more pounds on

quite funny i've never had a decent bet in this race before, prefer to concentrate on the races punters aren't interested in the amateur races

think soft will be fine for elegant escape not sure why some think he needs it on the heavy side of good ,tizz said after he won the welsh nat "it was soft but but there was good in it ,it was very similar ground to when native river won his welsh nat . a lot saying he is a slow boat and visually he did look short of pace in the cotswold but i suspect that race was slowly run (still havent seen the time of race ) with frodon setting  the fractions at a pace to see if he got the trip , he didnt look slow when the pace quickened  and his stamina kicked in on the turn for home and was the one finishing with a lot of purpose up the hill ,in another furlong do many think he wouldnt have passed frodon ? he made 1 or 2 niggly mistakes on saturday but i put that down to the slow pace ,in the very fast  fast run welsh nat he  jumped much more fluently and was strong at the finish. look i am nt saying he is going to pish up on the bridle he is double figga odds but if he is in contention at the last he is one who will get up that hill .

heavy side of soft ^^^^^

Jan 28, 2019 -- 1:27PM, FOYLESWAR wrote:

sam ...........nor was synchronised !

And I don't think either are / were, naturally quick enough to win a typical GC either. My main concern for him though would be his jumping. Roll on the Friday until we see what actually happens!

Sorry I missed your reply.

no probs sam ,watched synchronised again and how the fook he won that with that round of jumping ,cant really call it jumping more clambering over the fences , didnt seem to take any fences smoothly and still won it" unbelivable jeff "

just had a look at the time of the cotswold...... 20.5 seconds slow

Looks like I've persuaded you that EE won't win....

the time was as i thought very slow. elegant escape is an out and out stayer and the dawdle round in the cotswold would not play to his strenths ,contrast that to the welsh nat when the went a very fast pace on ground just on the soft side,jumped and travelled better off the fast pace in a time 3 secs faster than native clocked 2 season previous . the gold cup test  should be right up his street .

ee is fav with some bookies for the natioanl. Says it all in terms of GC i reckon

billy no mates on here

Well Foyles, that run behind Frodon looks pretty good now!
Any more rain will help,but hes a chance.

Well Foyles, that run behind Frodon looks pretty good now!
Any more rain will help,but hes a chance.

yeah budd the acid test today , a lot saying he will be outpaced and have to run through beaten horses  they may be right ,my take on it is if it is a strong pace (i dont think they will hang about ) it should be a true test and the faster they go the better elegant escape   will travel if he is there 2 out then the hill will hold no fears .

i reckon frodon ran to around 171-173 yesterday . puts ee right  in the mix going into todays race .

Form of trainer a concern,but the bets are on now and at least we beat the prices by a fair margin!!
Good luck mate

yeah was worried by that ,lostintranslation ran well yesterday so hope they are back .crazy day yesterday done a few quid on the earlier races and ended up backing a 100 /1 winner and was shouting for it to get beat , also  had the 2nd at 260/1 in a photo, read earlier that w.mullins had trained the winner of all 7 runnings in the mares race so just for small stakes thought i would back mullins runners turned out he had 7 runners put £2 on each  just for a bit of interest to watch the race and 100 and 260/1 in a photo .

Ran a decent race finishing in 6th place. The Grand National next?

Yeh,simply not good enough at this level.
Had conditions and no excuses.

Ran a decent race finishing in 6th place. The Grand National next?

Ran and jumped well in the Hennessey , Welsh Grand National and Gold Cup this season.

Reminding me a lot of Many Clouds ,who ran a similar race in the Gold Cup.
I recall a lot of experts thought his 6th in the Gold Cup was disappointing , I did not and neither was Elegant Escape.
He must go there with a solid chance.

20’s with Sky 5pls - we should organize a plunge

looked a good trial and if he lines up for the national wont be without a chance .