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Mystic Wind
08 Nov 18 12:07
Date Joined: 21 Mar 03
| Topic/replies: 412 | Blogger: Mystic Wind's blog
The hype horse at the moment is Annamix, but a single-figure price about a horse who hasn't run for over 2 years and hasn't won a race yet makes very little appeal.

That said, Willie Mullins is one of the more obvious places to start when trying to find the winner.

He has his usual raft of last season bumpers to throw into the hurdling mix. At the end of last season I thought that Tornado Flyer was the most likely of those to become a 'Supreme horse' but I note that he's not among the trainer's 16 (yes, 16) entries for the Royal Bond. Perhaps he needs more time, perhaps he needs further, who knows?

One Mullins horse who does hold a Royal Bond entry is Quick Grabim, and I was pretty impressed with his recent win in the Joe Mac where he beat a host of in-form horses. The form of that race is holding up well with both the 4th & 5th winning next time out (the former a decent contest at Cheltenham).

Quick Grabim is due to run in the For Auction this weekend, where it looks as though he'll come up against Gordon Elliott's Felix Desjy who is currently the general second favourite for the Supreme. Elliot has won the last 2 runnings of the For Auction and the well-regarded Felix Desjy will be getting 7 lbs from the penalised Quick Grabim. If Quick Grabim wins or goes close on Sunday then I think he'll have to be considered a serious Supreme contender. I think he will and despite his age being a bit of a trend-buster I've had an early dip of the toe.

0.4pt Quick Grabim @ 25/1
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Report FOYLESWAR February 24, 2019 6:40 PM GMT
on reflection not a bad run from angels breath will have learned a lot from that and closing well at the finish,   cheltenham should suit better and he should improve a fair  hendo seemed to hold him in high regard prior to kempton  and he knows what is required  nrnb is the way to go .
Report FOYLESWAR February 24, 2019 6:42 PM GMT
harry who is he 12s with ? having trouble with oddschecker on my p.c thanks
Report harry callaghan February 24, 2019 7:32 PM GMT
coral and unibet but not nrnb i'm afraid
Report impossible123 February 24, 2019 8:09 PM GMT
I think the owners of AB and AD will split them. What would be gained by running them in the same race when clearly AB would be done-for-toe over 2m? JP and Joseph will undoubtedly split SE and FD with SE heading for The Triumph and FD The Supreme.

I'd fancy AB (8/1 with 365 nrnb) in the Ballymore as I believe he'd have a better chance against Champ than in The Supreme. I'm not sure about the form of Battleoverdoyen either even though he looked good in his latest win.
Report Forty February 24, 2019 8:24 PM GMT
Ronnie Bartlett doesn’t own a share in AD 123

Report ronnie rails February 24, 2019 8:49 PM GMT
harry c
corals go nrnb bet from Tuesday all races
expect to see more cuts than Henry Coopers cornerman.
Report ReaseHeath February 24, 2019 11:47 PM GMT

Feb 24, 2019 -- 1:25PM, ACStafford wrote:

My initial reaction after the Dovecote was that Elixir De Nutz was to be backed for the Supreme, but, after watching back, I'm with Marychain: that wasn't a bad a run from Angel's Breath. He tugged really hard early on. If they could get him to settle he could be dangerous. He did seem to get left behind just after the bend, but I wonder if that was Cobden timing it just right and De Boinville a little slow to react. I'm not sure where to go with this race at the moment. The front two in the market look far too short to me. Itchy Feet is interesting at the price. I remember backing him the time he was beaten by Vision Des Flos, but there's no time to get another run in to him now. Anyone know why he hasn't run since?

Olly Murphy told the Racing Post back in November after his Cheltenham run that he would have a break and maybe go to Musselburgh for the Supreme trial - that got abandoned (twice!). He was entered in yesterday's Dovecote but they decided to go straight to the Festival.Don't think there's any other reason for the lay off.Worth remembering he was trying to give Elixir Du Nutz 5lbs when 2nd to him at Cheltenham because he had a penalty for beating Grand Sancy in a Listed race at Kempton.

Would n't be put off by the fact that Richard Johnson likely to ride Murphy's other contender Thomas Darby either - I think there is some sort of tie up whereby Gavin Sheehan rides the Brooks' horses.

He is a generous price based on his form - obviously if collateral form always worked out it would be an easy game and the other two horses have clearly improved since he raced them but he is surely a live outsider, only caveat is he looks like one who could be scuppered if the ground comes up soft.

Report ReaseHeath February 25, 2019 12:12 AM GMT
I wrote on the antepost forum that defeat yesterday could be the catalyst for Angels Breath to be diverted to the Ballymore but the nature of his defeat means I've changed my mind!

Worth noting though that if they do split them it will be Angels Breath in the Ballymore - Al Dancer is not entered in that race.

However, Henderson only has three Supreme entries left - and we know he is n't averse to running more than one. As ACStafford points out the collateral form from yesterday stands up with the Tolworth - also Scarlet Dragon was beaten pointless having only been beaten 9 lengths in the same race last year by a decent horse in Global Citizen.

It's likely the first two yesterday are both potentially very good, Angels Breath had everything against him (track,ground,experience) and still went very close - I think he'll run in the Supreme with a big chance.
Report buddeliea February 25, 2019 10:58 AM GMT
Yeh,thinking about it a bit more,as i like the Tolworth form then it makes sense to keep an open mind with AB.
Hes tied in with it,and its proving solid form,just hope its winning form for the Supreme!!
He could well improve some  as well for that race.
Report Ming_the_Merciless February 26, 2019 7:24 AM GMT
I really like the the chance of Fakir De Doodars, but what a knee action!!!!.... very like Taquin du Seuil's was. Any concerns here?
Report marychain1 February 26, 2019 12:16 PM GMT
Has anyone got any information on the record of second-season hurdlers in the Supreme?
Report equine flew February 26, 2019 8:33 PM GMT
Paul Nicholls media day today, from the RP, here are his comments on his Supreme Runner.

Grand Sancy
He's a real tough one and is now rated 152 which is high for a novice. He's had a great season. He's won his smaller races and he won the Kingwell at Wincanton the other day. He really toughed it out for a novice and looks a proper horse now. He is every bit as good as Al Ferof and Noland [Supreme winners] but is quite a big price and we think he is in with a great chance. He gallops on and he has done nothing but improve, he is versatile in terms of ground and we're looking forward to running him in the festival opener.
Report foxy February 26, 2019 9:10 PM GMT
Ac Stratford

When was itchy feet beaten by vision des flos ?
Report Deptford February 26, 2019 9:33 PM GMT
Just had another dabble Itchy
Report ACStafford February 26, 2019 9:37 PM GMT
Greatwood day.
Report ACStafford February 26, 2019 9:38 PM GMT
Sorry, just realised my mistake. Elixir de Nutz rather.
Report foxy February 26, 2019 9:41 PM GMT
I thought that’s the horse you meant just wanted to clarify.

Good luck
Report foxy February 26, 2019 9:42 PM GMT
Cheers ronnie
Report Can't Catch Me February 26, 2019 10:22 PM GMT
Tizzard hasn’t got a jockey for EdN yet!
Report marychain1 February 26, 2019 11:09 PM GMT
Anyone got any info on the record of second season hurdlers in the Supreme?
Report impossible123 March 2, 2019 3:57 PM GMT
Was Getabird a 2nd season one? If so, he was made fav but the nature of Cheltenham proved his downfall.

A good performance by Rouge Vif who was beaten by Mister Fisher (MF) - another of Hendo; the fav Getaway Trump (GT) did not uphold the form of Al Dancer (AD) either. And, with 3 possibles from Hendo (with one owner having dual ownership) could Angels Breath (AB) be diverted to the Ballymore given he'd could with a trip? I read what Hendo said about AB nevertheless, I'm far from convinced this is his race or the preference of the dual-owner of AD and AB.

I believe Mister Fisher has better credential than AB, and could be overlooked.
Report duffy March 2, 2019 6:04 PM GMT
Don't think Hendo will fancy going to the Neptune with his own Champ lying in wait.
Report impossible123 March 2, 2019 6:47 PM GMT
Champ (C) is not cast-iron as the Irish have Battleoverdoyen and Klassical Dream. Also, it's no certainty Nico will choose AB over MF (here). And I know what I'd do if I was a part-owner of AB; AB can beat C, I think.
Report duffy March 2, 2019 7:23 PM GMT
Report buddeliea March 3, 2019 7:32 AM GMT
What do we reckon re Getaway Trump yesterday?
Form of Al Dancer and Champ the 2 novice favs takes a knock.

My take on it is that hes not finished his race off for whatever reason,and would not be too worried if i had bets on these two.
Report Quevega06 March 3, 2019 9:40 AM GMT
I still don't know why Thomas Darby is 25/1,his form keeps getting boosted by all around him. Personally I make him a 10/1 shot so that double the price is value
Report Ming_the_Merciless March 3, 2019 3:37 PM GMT
Agree Budd.

He (GTrump) is usually a smooth traveller and the season may just be catching up with him. I expected him to lose in his usual Harchibald way but that was too bad. If that form is true then ALL the British novices may as well stay away lol.
Report duffy March 3, 2019 3:46 PM GMT
What would you have said if he'd won hard held?Grin
Report Ming_the_Merciless March 3, 2019 4:24 PM GMT
That's the only way he can win lol - he is a bridle monkey!!
Report impossible123 March 3, 2019 4:33 PM GMT
How good and reliable is the Betfair form? I understand Al Dancer won easily, but in beating a bottom weight handicapper and not shouldering top weight, personally, he's not one for me. He also ran rather freely, and will have to give Fakir D'oudaries a hefty 8lbs wfa; not keen on Angels Breath either given his last run - he definitely needs further. But the one I like and fear most is Mister Fisher who, I think, could give FD a fright on a formline with Rouge Vif, Thomas Darby, Windsor Avenue and Al Dancer.
Report sageform March 4, 2019 1:53 PM GMT
Very big difference between official ratings where there are any, RPR and the market.

Official ratings: 145 Elixir du Nutz, The Big Bite and Mister Fisher.
143 Grand Sancy, 142 Rouge Vif, 141 Al Dancer.

RPR: 159 Al Dancer, Grand Sancy, 158 Angels Breath, 156 Elixir du Nutz, Fakir D'oudaires, 154 Felix Desjy. A bit farther down on 149 is Brandon Castle. An experienced flat handicapper used the be the sort to look for in this and Sausolito Boy was another ex Andrew Balding winner. Massive at 90 if intended runner.

On those figures it should be 6/1 the field.
Report johnslad March 4, 2019 3:20 PM GMT
AD BHA152 EDN 153 GS 152 these are new ratings others the same
Report the bloob March 4, 2019 8:22 PM GMT
the price of Angel's Breath now is ridiculous, nothing like the form in the book of some of the others. I think Elixir de Nutz is the one to be on, I keep topping up, my only worry is Fakir Doudaries
Report ACStafford March 4, 2019 10:00 PM GMT
Yeah, he looks too short now. He must show much more at home than Mister Fisher.
Report harry callaghan March 4, 2019 10:30 PM GMT
not being funny the bloob but i really do think that fakir doudaires form is worthless, i believe they based the figure on the third horse home but basically he did no running at all that day, along with rest who had no form whatsoever going into the race, he should be far bigger in the market in my book, we will see i suppose but he isn't for me even with all the allowances
Report 1st time poster March 5, 2019 9:58 AM GMT
reading tizzards views about EDN flying in a gallop,going to go from the front sounds a perfect ride for cobbden in his current form and tizzards obviously hoping he can get him to ride but says he no,s he,ll probably ride one for pumpkin,would obviously be a big price reduction if cobbden does eventually decide to ride him, tizzards bullishness has got me on board
Report sageform March 5, 2019 5:31 PM GMT
Cobden on Grand Sancy appeals to me at the price. The Wincanton win against experienced horses was very impressive and in most years, the Supreme winner is well inferior to the first 4 in the Champion Hurdle. Vision des flos has since won a good race. He was beaten 1/2 length by Elixir but if Cobden rides, Grand Sancy would be my choice.
Report nineteen points March 5, 2019 10:08 PM GMT
so how is itchy feet double the price?
Report Shakepseare's Sheriff March 6, 2019 12:20 AM GMT
nineteen....agree totally with Itchy Feet....I'm on at decent odds.  I am hoping to hear something positive about any improvement from a preview evening.  I know that there is no issues with him, but as he has not raced since November my bet is in the hope he would have improved since then.
Report nineteen points March 6, 2019 7:40 AM GMT
also trainer seems to think he prefers decent ground so rain wont help
Report sageform March 6, 2019 8:03 AM GMT
The form looks interesting but Grand Sancy has improved by stones since the autumn and Elixir beat Itchy Feet. It is a very long break from his last run.
Report nineteen points March 6, 2019 8:29 AM GMT
beat it getting 5lbs.
Report sageform March 6, 2019 2:06 PM GMT
Just been tempted to have £2 at 96 on Brandon castle (purple) Unbeaten over hurdles, RPR 149 last time but won very easily. 100 rated flat handicapper and at 7yo not too old to learn new tricks. Could be Bryony Frost's ride.
Report ReaseHeath March 6, 2019 6:32 PM GMT
I'd completely forgotten about The Big Bite until I looked at the confirmations and saw Fehily already jocked up!

He was well beaten at Kempton but trying to give 3lbs to Rouge Vif and Thomas Darby and 8lbs to Mister Fisher. That trio are 4/4 since Kempton so the form looks decent.

Trainer thinks the way the race panned out and the track did n't suit at Kempton - of course he would say that but it's certainly not impossible he'll be seen to better effect off a strong gallop and at level weights in the Supreme.

Not backing him (yet!) but he's 40/1 and you could n't dismiss his chances, just an illustration of how tricky the race is.
Report Leonardo March 6, 2019 7:07 PM GMT
Backed The Big Bite as mentioned below at 40/1 e/w NRNB when I saw N Fehily jocked up.was impressive in a Class 2 at Haydock then made a couple of mistakes at Kempton on Boxing Day.hopeful of a place maybe-at the price doesn’t cost a lot to find out!!think it’s an open race.
Report penzance March 6, 2019 7:24 PM GMT
Elexir De Nutz @7s most books,with a clear
round wins this.
Report buddeliea March 6, 2019 7:32 PM GMT
Big chance, but seems to be a dozen others with chances......crazy race!!!
Report impossible123 March 6, 2019 7:32 PM GMT
Angels Breath and Elexir De Nutz have been back into only 11/2 and 8/1 respectively, tipped by pundit on preview nights perhaps.
Report Deptford March 6, 2019 7:36 PM GMT
Think rain will scupper Itchy Feet, not been a good day, my life changing treble would have involved him, Champagne Classic in 4m and Tout Permis in Ultima, oh well
Report penzance March 6, 2019 7:59 PM GMT
Tolworth form,2nd and 3rd both won
since.3rd beat Angels Breath lto.
Recieved 5lb but 3rd was 18L back.
Report ben96 March 6, 2019 11:01 PM GMT
It is tough to weigh up the novice form. Very difficult to use colleteral form from early in a season people using that logic for ELixir De Nutz must think Thomas Darby has a chance to then given he beat him at Cheltenham. Tizzard usually has his novices quite forward early in the season.

I still think Aramon is being overlooked he has the experience under his belt and will surely get a strong pace to run at. He will be ridden queitly and can use his decent turn of foot. No better combination than Mullins and Walsh in the surpeme.
Report irishone March 6, 2019 11:24 PM GMT
Obviously backed a few Irish horses
Aramon was the early pick
But the each way pick
Won the first at Galway
On the jockeys recovery from the broken leg
He got at Cheltenham last year
The horse was different gravy around ballybrit
....and since then he has produced
A very very remarkable performance
That you don't often see
Unless it was PENHILL hurdling at Galway
And getting up at the death
Or CLONDAW WARRIOR doing the same
In the big one
This horse is a great e w bet at 50\1
....and would be very surprised
If Ruby wasn't up
Report irishone March 6, 2019 11:26 PM GMT
PS let's see who discovers the fishing rod now hibore !
Report marychain1 March 6, 2019 11:39 PM GMT
Jesus there's some bellends on this forum ^^^
Report ReaseHeath March 6, 2019 11:48 PM GMT
confused me (easily done!) - assume irish is talking about Easy Game - but EG has not been confirmed for the Supreme at today's declaration stage
Report buddeliea March 7, 2019 6:23 AM GMT
Laugh Marychain
Report buddeliea March 7, 2019 6:23 AM GMT
you are right though Mary
Report impossible123 March 7, 2019 2:22 PM GMT
Nico (maybe slower ground) has chosen Angels Breath over Mister Fisher, but Bowen is just as good - he's young, up-and-coming and keen.
Report lewisham ranger March 7, 2019 2:28 PM GMT
looks incredibly open this year. favourites look vulnerable.

I like Thomas darby, with felix desjy as a lively outsider.
Report lewisham ranger March 7, 2019 2:32 PM GMT
looks incredibly open this year. favourites look vulnerable.

I like Thomas darby, with felix desjy as a lively outsider.
Report harry callaghan March 7, 2019 5:39 PM GMT
i wonder if mullins is going to run klassical dream here??...the market is very up and down and it looks like the normal thing, after saying he may go the other race, he'll probably run here...thanks in advance willie
Report paul22 March 8, 2019 5:41 PM GMT
Dickies going 7 places.

Some absolute free shots there, such as Al dancer and elixer de nutz
Report harry callaghan March 8, 2019 5:58 PM GMT
when does this concession start paul i can't see it??
Report irishone March 8, 2019 6:03 PM GMT
Felix deasji done for bundles here through out the winter
Report unclepuncle March 9, 2019 8:45 AM GMT
Been backing Thomas Darby for this all winter at 40/1+ but the forecast rain looks like scuppering his chanceSad - may even be a non runner imo so have laid off.

Also like Mister Fisher but again worried about the weather.

Angels Breath looks a mudlark to me so can understand why he has been well supported.
Report marychain1 March 9, 2019 10:51 AM GMT
Angels Breath or to a lesser extent Klassical Dream would get me off to a great start to the festival
Report harry callaghan March 9, 2019 2:20 PM GMT
is he running klassical dream here or in the ballymore anyone know yet??
Report ReaseHeath March 9, 2019 2:41 PM GMT
In the paper this morning (now £3.20!) he says they're still deliberating between Supreme and Ballymore

but he has only 2 left in the Supreme and 11 in the Ballymore...
Report irishone March 9, 2019 2:50 PM GMT
Depends on albert bartett last minute
Report harry callaghan March 9, 2019 3:18 PM GMT
cheers rease it's brutal now the £3.20 for the post...i bought a post and weekender last week £3.40 for the weekender brakes your heart

the money says klassical might run here normal bollox with 2 days left
Report marychain1 March 9, 2019 10:32 PM GMT
Klassical Dream is going the Supreme if the markets on here are to believed
Report paul22 March 10, 2019 3:56 PM GMT
7 places available now Harry
Report paul22 March 10, 2019 3:57 PM GMT
1/5 odds. But no complaints with that really!
Report marychain1 March 10, 2019 5:57 PM GMT
Wow - a couple of weeks ago I thought my two antepost bets for this, Angels Breath and Klassical Dream, were going to the Ballymore and I might as well screw up my slips. Now there's every chance they go off first and second favourites. Mental this game...
Report ReaseHeath March 10, 2019 7:13 PM GMT
I'm assuming the Tizzards have declared Beaufort West to give Elixir De Nutz a lead? - they'll trust Robbie Power to set the right fractions...
Report penzance March 10, 2019 7:17 PM GMT
does he need one?
Report ReaseHeath March 10, 2019 7:26 PM GMT
you would n't think so but perhaps just trying to help out Tom O'Brien - Felix Desjy likes to lead as well - the roar, first race of the Festival, adrenalin - would n't want EDN and FD to blow their chances by going hammer and tongs up front.

Just thinking about Petit Mouchoir and Saint Calvados in last year's Arkle....

All supposition obvs, probably over-thinking it Happy
Report LaticsLegend March 10, 2019 8:23 PM GMT
Brandon Castle will surely lead, only knows 1 way the talented nutterCrazy Not sure for how long though!
Report lewisham ranger March 11, 2019 9:38 AM GMT
a very poor surpreme. normally there's one or two horses that are regarded as superstars but not this year.

have backed felix- 22-1 very nice.
Report ReaseHeath March 11, 2019 9:51 AM GMT
^ same here - will add one from UK prior to the race, not sure which one yet!
Report sageform March 11, 2019 2:40 PM GMT
Brandon Castle will make all.
Report layingisthewayforward March 11, 2019 3:19 PM GMT
Elixir de nutz a big drifter.
Report impossible123 March 11, 2019 3:26 PM GMT
FD to repeat his C&D triumph tomorrow (I hope!).
Report equine flew March 11, 2019 5:38 PM GMT
Elixir de nutz - non runner - self certificate
Report Ibrahima Sonko March 11, 2019 5:44 PM GMT

One of my main bets of the festival.
Report impossible123 March 11, 2019 6:16 PM GMT
Commiseration to backers of EDN.
Report 1st time poster March 11, 2019 6:16 PM GMT
backed EDN with skybet and had cash returned if I back another horse in race will it count as 1st bet on race and still qualify for skybets cash back offer ,or count as 2nd bet in race and no cashback ??
Report penzance March 11, 2019 6:20 PM GMT
on with 366,nrnb,how long before stakes
are returned,is it after the race?
Report impossible123 March 11, 2019 6:23 PM GMT
Check, maybe cashout available already given nrnb.
Report 1st time poster March 11, 2019 6:24 PM GMT
skybet sorted ,next bet counts for cashback if 1st bet is non runner
Report GoldCupWinner March 11, 2019 10:22 PM GMT
I wrote this out in an attempt to clear the race in my head but it's still clear as mud. If it wasn't for a certain site offering a really good deal, I probably would have left the race but as it stands I will be backing Klassical Dream.

Al Dancer

Betfair hurdle winner off 141 and a few winners have run well in this race recently without winning. The form of this year’s looks OK but nothing spectacular. He has course form and handles soft but my instinct is that he will run well but fall short of winning.

Klassical Dream

Done nothing wrong since joining with Mullins and has plenty of experience from his time in France, Closely matched with Aramon judged on his latest outing but his strong finish that day suggests that he should confirm the form on this stiffer track. Difficult to say whether soft ground will bring about improvement, ran 4th in a grade 1 in France on the surface.

Angels Breath

On bare form I have him behind a few others in the race, priced on trainer/potential/home reputation. Very lightly raced and should be open to the most improvement but could very well turn out to be the best horse in the race without being battle hardened enough to win tomorrow.

Fakir D’oudairies

Easy winner last time but main market rival under-performed and there wasn’t much substance to the race which makes it difficult to evaluate. Will need to improve.
Vision D’honneur

Behind Klassical dream twice already this year and will also need to improve. However did perform well on his only start on soft in France and could well be a dark horse encountering this ground for the first time with Elliot.

Grand Sancy

Difficult to believe this horse was beaten in a handicap of 136 (claiming 5lb) but then went on to win a grade 2 against his elders. After a closer inspection of his form I tend to believe he is at his very best on good ground and galloping tracks (I don’t believe his run in the Tolworth to be as good as that in the Kingwell, also wasn’t as convincing when winning at Chepstow).


Not too much between him and Klassical Dream but he is less open to improvement and was also beaten on soft in a race he should have won.
Report Graeme83 March 11, 2019 10:39 PM GMT
Tough start for the punters. I've got Fakir Doudairies. I think the 8lb might just do him some good here.
Report Ibrahima Sonko March 11, 2019 11:18 PM GMT
Going to stick my kneck out hear, i cant remember the last time a juvenile ran within 20lbs of novice ?

Every following season we have seen promising juveniles go into open company and they dont perform. We can talk about Binocular & that french thing that did nothing afterwards.

Cant believe serious punters think a juvenile can win this.
Report unclepuncle March 12, 2019 1:40 PM GMT
08 Jan 19 12:39

If Itchy Feet even gets placed in the Supreme I will never post on here again, and unliket that ****  I123 I will be a man of my word
Keep you fingers crossed lads.Laugh

Been nice knowing you all but it's a permanent goodbye from me.Laugh
Report Deptford March 12, 2019 1:44 PM GMT
Report FOYLESWAR March 12, 2019 1:52 PM GMT
further confimation of the greatest cystern known to humanity uncle !
Report howarth31 March 12, 2019 2:47 PM GMT
The Veterinary Officer reported that ITCHY FEET (FR), placed third, bled from the nose and that THOMAS DARBY (IRE), placed second, was lame on its right fore.
Report Graeme83 March 12, 2019 8:38 PM GMT
puncle i doubt anyone wants you to keep your word on that comment. It's only a forum.
Report FOYLESWAR March 12, 2019 9:04 PM GMT
ya forgiven uncle !
Report Can't Catch Me March 13, 2019 7:21 AM GMT
Party on the Liverpool thread, all invited. Except uncle obvs Laugh
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