*** Arkle Chase ***

Oh yes, DDG - the Irish one. Now wonder I'd already forgotten.

Not a good Festival with no run from BD (fell); Benie (fell at the last); Champ and Santini (2nd, after losing another shoe); Paisley Park could redeem (hopefully). All these in doubles and trebles with (Tiger Roll). Now Tiger with TDH.

equine flew • February 25, 2019 12:34 PM GMT
Now looks like me if Defi du Seuil will be re-routed to Arkle, leaving Lostintranslation a certainty for the JLT

Eventually it turns out that these end up 1st & 2nd in the JLT.....(antepost is tough - just saying)

LALOR and the ‘outside of top two finish last time out’ Arkle stat…
If Lalor is to justify Arkle favouritism then he’ll need to become only the third horse in the last 22 renewals to win it off NOT finishing in the first two last time out…
The Arkle is slowly starting to fall apart as we edge closer to the big day, with both Dynamite Dollars and Le Richebourg posting sick-notes in recent weeks and Defi Du Seuil likely to be heading for the longer JLT option.

Lalor himself has missed a couple of engagements due to the fast ground but as things stand he’s bang on course for the big day and he sits snuggly at the head of the betting, despite finishing a well-beaten third when last seen, in the G1 Henry VIII Novice Chase at Sandown in December. And it’s that defeat that has me slightly concerned, particularly when you dig into the trends of the previous 21 winners of the race…
19/21 finished in the top 2 on their final start before winning the Arkle
Only Contraband and the mighty Moscow Flyer won the Arkle having not finished 1st or 2nd last time out.
The stats for those horses that lined up in the Arkle off third or worse placed finish are…
2/69 | 3% S/R | -£54.50 LSP – W&P 11/69 | 16% S/R – 45% below expectation
Not great reading for Lalor fans… Also worth noting that 14 of the last 15 winners of the Arkle had 1 or 2 starts in the last 90 days, Lalor has been off the track for 94 days…
Just a few niggles that might make you think twice about lumping on the Arkle fav…

The defence…
His victory in the Arkle Trial at the track in November tells us the fences hold no fear for him and in winning that race he put up one of the best novice chase performances of the season.
There’s no doubt that on his day he can win the race… but has his preparation (forced in some way by the ground conditions) just been all wrong for him?

Conclusion…
That last time out effort is a worry and the stats for finishing outside the top 2 last time out don’t make for pleasing reading. It’s not the only trend, on my race trends anyway, that he’ll fall down on either. Just depends on how many of the others come into the race with a stronger profile (I know at least one will come in with full marks on my final NTF figures)…

TTT - who fancies what for 2020?

For what it's worth I'm having an early speculative bet on Felix Desjy and might have a tiny
investment on Global Citizen

Really like Thomas Darby @ 25/1.

PeteTheBloke 13 Jul 18 18:53 
Every year everyone seems to know the winner ages before I do, so I'm starting this
thread in the hope that I'll get a share of the shrewd ante-post info and win on this race
for once.


I have just gone through the whole thread and unless I missed it, I did not see the winners name mentioned under any context at any time within the thread pre race !!!

Not once

Darby @ 25/1 for me too.

duffy16 Sep 19 15:32Joined: 28 Mar 03 | Topic/replies: 21,132 | Blogger: duffy's blog
PeteTheBloke 13 Jul 18 18:53
Every year everyone seems to know the winner ages before I do, so I'm starting this
thread in the hope that I'll get a share of the shrewd ante-post info and win on this race
for once.


I have just gone through the whole thread and unless I missed it, I did not see the winners name mentioned under any context at any time within the thread pre race !!!

Not once

I suspected as much. Let's hope we do better in 2020. (2020 foresight?)

Laurina confirmed as going chasing... she's 14/1 for this with the bet365 cash out option so seems a no brainer.

Also backed the following all EW:

Thomas Darby 25/1
Al Dancer 33/1
Rouge Vif 33/1

I was all in on Laurina going into the CH and I was desperately disappointed, despite it being handed to her on a plate she was dreadful, I think the big question about her i.e. does she have the pace was answered with an emphatic NO, there was no gear change with Walsh stating that she was never travelling despite what a few thought, she's got a question against her on better ground, all the more so now with a bigger question against her with regards pace and that's before we even see how she takes to fences.

I may be overly against her because of how disappointed I was after the CH but we'll see. She'll certainly bump into a good few decent novices in Ireland through the season where the trials will be far more competitive than over here so we'll have a really good idea about her going into the festival.

She hurt me

Wouldn't get too involved with Laurina for any chases atm, Not blowing anyway away at home with her fencing.

anyone away*

Thomas Darby needs 2.5 trip
Hasn't the scope for an Arkle

I cashed out my Thomas Darby bet after his run (same for both Rouge Vif and Al Dancer!). Agree he looks more of a JLT type...

And the stable already have the Arkle winner anyway

Laurina-fav makes his debut over 2.5 at Gowran on
SOFT ground tomorrow

Angels Breath impressive at
Ascot

I have just read an article on atr app from TG about Summerville Boy. My post is nothing at all to do with the horse and his arkle chances but more that it serves as a benchmark for other trainers to aspire to in terms of providing clear and transparent information to the public. I read the article and felt that I completely understood the plan, strategy and trusted what he said. Like I say imo many other trainers could take a leaf out of his book. It can’t be that difficult right.

City Island going to LepRDSTOWN
Xmas meeting

Got a new fav
Notebook beats Fakir while Laurina breaks a blood
vessel

Don't think the true fav has YET been revealed

I think Fakir D'oudaries will gain his revenge here given a more enterprising ride than at Leopardstown earlier today.

he will 7 pound worse off in the arkle

Oh ya, that could be more difficult then. But, Laurina gets a 7lb allowance, right?

yes she gets the mares allowance but for me she wont be ling up here , jlt possibly, its reported she broke blood vessel  today

Dec 26, 2019 -- 7:43PM, impossible123 wrote:

Oh ya, that could be more difficult then. But, Laurina gets a 7lb allowance, right?

Ffs

Melon wins his novice on soft ground
Form ties in with the fav
At 16-1 hes still value
Better ground would suit
Global Citizen wins at Kempton despite jumping left
Think Aintree would suit him better

Dublin FESTIVAL ENTRIES will show
whose the Best Orish runner

Im expecting Melon to win

Hoping for a nice run from Bapaume today, like this one for Cheltenham.
Impressed visually with him last time,and looks to be a fast improver.

Oh dear,that's that's that's that then.
Front two ran well,both big players at Cheltenham for sure.

Notebook looks a good thing if it stays sound and completes at the Festival.

Was very busszie before todays race
That's why he drifted
Hoping Global Citizen can SHOCK him

The first two today but particularly Notebook were very impressive, he nearly lost the race going to the start which would have to be a concern for Cheltenham, but he was also a bit keen through the first part of the race, where all bar two were racing off the pace and you were half expecting the race to collapse and fall back into their laps it was the other way round with two very good yardsticks in the two mullins horses that got cooked way out.

Notebook's jump at the 2nd last was special and the front two slugged it out from there, long enough out but battled it right to the line, great engine great attitude and will love the hill. 3/1 is very fair, I think a chunk of that price is down to his behaviour in the prelims rather than the opposition and I'd be happy with the price on that basis.

What a confusing race the arkle has turned into.

Notebook in theory is the rightful favourite taking into account its gutsy efforts this season. However, I am now unsure if the tighter old course at Cheltenham will be to its liking!
In theory it’s a stone better jumping a fence, but it’s best performances have been on flat galloping tracks which has lead me searching for something else.

Fakir D’Oudairies could be a danger but is another that would be best suited to the galloping nature of the new course. It also has to contend with no age allowance.

Cash back should be able to turn the tables on Notebook, as it won in Naas recently so should cope with an undulating track more easily.

Melon is still worth keeping an eye on at a big price! Yes it has a lot to make up on a few rivals, but when it gets to the old course at Cheltenham, it seems to come alive, and was given a very easy ride on Saturday.

All of the sudden this race then opens up into some decent priced chances who’s main weakness seem to be they are best at 2m 4 and therefore may get done for toe in a normal Arkle.

Brewingupastorm is a tough nut although may not have the speed

Mr Fisher won in an eye catching time in December which was 3 seconds quicker that the Caspian caviar winner over c and d. That form has been let down a bit though at Sandown when Good Boy Bobby finished down the field. However Mr Fisher has since won over 2m since.

Itchy Feet was not on my list after it bled after the supreme. But it’s now proved no ill effects have taken place and won in good style in what looked a very weak race on Saturday. That previous supreme form gives it important c and d form though.

Global Citizen won despite its yard being badly out of form!

Al Dancer has to have a chance on a few lines of English form, but horses of that sire normally curl up under the jockey when
encountering a tough finish, having to eyeball another horses. Al Dancer appears to of done that!

I must admit that I’ve been much more thoughough looking at Notebooks form at this stage, so may find many more chinks in the armour of the rest as time goes by.

Notebook's Ballymore run last year wasnt great (you wouldnt expect it though with his rating and price ) , the good thing about it was that he jumped straight .

Brewin will have the speed.

Barnsey,  I won't repeat my thoughts on Notebook for the other thread.

Regarding Mister Fisher and Itchy Feet; I think both are very plausible Festival winners, but I would expect both to run in the Golden Miller instead.

I think Rouge Vif at 16 nrnb is pretty good value after that last performance.
He maybe being rather underestimated?
Lot of talk about the Irish form-fair enough it looks good,but I think the british forms ok,and bigger prices available if you like it.

Yeah Rouge vif has been a favourite of mine ever since a novice hurdle race at kempton when it had Mr Fisher 2L ahead but getting 5lb, and Thomas Darby behind in 3rd off level weights.
I was really surprised it didn’t go to the supreme last season, instead winning at Kelso, beating Windsor avenue and Getaway Trump.
It made a nice shape on its chasing debut, and stayed on when looking beat.
It’s Cheltenham run over the Arkle course and distance in November was worrying though, although I was disappointed with it not being given more of a prominent ride. Hopefully that’s the only reason for the poor run.
So the warning signs about Cheltenham are very much a negative - why did it skip the supreme? And was that’s its true running at Cheltenham in November?

Maybe the reason for Cheltenham was his breathing as he had a wind op three days later.
Much improved with his next run, and Warwick was very good performance I thought.
Looks to be improving nicely and 16 nrnb is very fair imo.

Have added Mr Fisher nrnb at 12.
Hendo saying will consider this if soft enough.

that would be good news for me have mr fisher at 46 ish for this ,fort the bet was dead tbh ,bit of light at the end of tunnel now .

Mr Fisher is indeed very interesting.

Looked a different horse at doncaster,his jumping was much slicker,travelled well,and came back on the snaff before the last.The winning time of that race suggests he is not short of toe,far from it.

Great stat from Gaultstats,Hendo has run 8 novices with a hurdle rating 145 or above in this,4 winners and 3 seconds,MF was rated 144,that alone makes him dangerous.

With course experience under his belt,he looks a danger to all if he heads here,I like him.

No mention of the two mares entered yet.

On hurdle ratings both would look out of place,but this is a different game.

The skelton mare has been foot perfect in smaller fields,older than the profile of the last 9 winners,a very likeable sort.Progressive profile in lower grade,she is interesting.

As with the supreme,trying to get a handle on the form from both sides of the water is just the beginning.

Some lovely types in this,a race to savour as it stands.

Mr Fisher is rated 153
His time at Cheltenham in December was 3 seconds quicker than the caspian cup winner! Mr Fisher was carrying 11 stone that day, obviously different to the handicappers.

Henry sent.one over last year that won on the Sunday at Cheltenham. Put the kettle on. The horse jumped right but thats been worked on and the mare has been trained for the arkle . The syndicate is all booked up for cheltenham and the rain in the uk this winter is right up her street. At 25\1 shes a bit big for an arkle winner  but each way shes value.

Can’t think of many arkle winners who made there chase debut at Kilbeggan but to be fair she knows how to win races,and on a line through moon over Germany comes out ahead of notebook with the allowance.

Yeh, I can see the logic behind backing PTKO,shrewd trainer who sent her there so has experience at the track.
20 nrnb appeals, especially if her jumping has been sorted.

Agree with sentiment , she looks a lovely mare and not ground dependant .

Put the Kettle wins
Must have had a rain dance answered

well done with put the kettle on irish and any others who put it up .good hit .

Indeed,nice one

Irishone
  wd
  GL

Shishkin is the one if jumping is sound.

That applys to m

That applyx to modt of them.....another quality ost

Try again .....that applies to most of them....another quality post....

Hard to type when you are two sheets to the wind.

Imp, you are correct as usual. Looks a very similar type to Altior and if jumping soundly will be extremely hard to beat. 4/1 is a bit short at this stage but is the type that could be even better over fences. Sometimes is not all about betting and appreciation of a potential superstar.

Rsellly ? Mockin tha inflectec d ?

Imp .....correct as usual.....PMSL

You’re definitely inflicted but you do all the mocking

So you don’t fancy Shishkin ?

forms there for all to see  and many will be wanting it but 4/1 is short atm imo  , sishkin will prob be given a few penalty kicks and price should go shorter but if i was thinking of playing it would be with both elixir and capt guinness who didnt complete and were both going well at the time if they had stood up who knows what may have happened . that would be where the value is for me at this stage 25 and 20s vs 4/1 .........wats not ta ?

Correct .....

As for Imp absolutely clueless, cashed out on defi when it won, puts down mullins at every opportunity to his cost, says he doesnt trade when he does, then says he will neverpost again if Found wins the Arc.....correct as usual FFS needs to stay with you and the morons on fat jockey hibore

I was impressed with Shishkin as he still managed to win despite everything went wrong in the race. My only reservation is I'm no fan of Abacadabras; 4/1 is a bit skinny. But, come Dec 2020 he'll be much shorter or winning his 1st chase and jumping well eg 7/4 or less; definite an odds-on shot on his debut, all things being equal.

Shishkin and Envoi Allen - the two bankers for 2021 if running in their age group. Now, I might have put the mockers on them. Head above parapet...oh well such is life.

Exactly Imp, 4/1 is price you can put some early patents on...nothing too serious. Santini 17/2, Sishkin, Envoi and same bet with Champ. Nice return for £5 ew patent.

When I need to know which Wetherspoons is best I’ll consult you Irish

Loads of Irish nationals in Ganley's a bar and restaurant joint in Morden just next to a branch of 'Paddies' esp at Cheltenham some one could barely understand even before the drinking.

I was in there this year Imp. Paul Kealy was out of his tree by 9pm and no one could understand him either.

Mr Ganley a wanderer from this parish, took the road signs with him

4\1 shishkin ...eleven momths out ,putrid price,  do you guys never learn ?

I wouldn’t say it’s a putrid price but agree it’s a bit skinny. 6/1 would be fair if you want a decent single bet at this stage.
If you think it will be 6/4 or less on the day of course.

Were you? I've never eaten at Ganley's, but I'd hear the Irish folks when I was shopping across the road or Holland and Barrett. I was in 'Paddies' next door to watch Shishkin win The Supreme. I think Ganley's was pretty quiet after the race.

Another Irish bar that was popular with the Irish folks was the Ramble Inn in Tooting. That was a couple of decades ago when I used to spend a significant time with friends during the Festival in Amen Corner Tooting quite close to Ladbrokes. And, it's still there...probably still is busy.

Shishkin does seem the the likeliest winner at this early stage but 4/1 is very short in my opinion. Two others of interest at slightly bigger prices would be Pic Dorhy  and Klassical Dream. Fences was always going to be the long-term plan for Pic Dorhy and seems to have a very good engine. I would have to see the latter of the two perform a decent round of fencing before getting involved financially though.

Cheltenham preview night is the only time I go there each year. I’ll give it a miss next time as panel was poor.
Food is good though

I know Shiskin had a rough old time of it, but DR did well to stay in the plate at the second last on Abracadabras and was in front way before they wanted to. The pair of them pulled well clear and I don’t think there’s a lot between them. Unless they have different targets, I’m not sure why one is 4/1 and the other 16/1? If you think that that form is solid and there’s no reason not to, the Abra is the one to be on surely?

Abacadabras is staying hurdling and being aimed at the Champion Hurdle according to trainer.

Wrong again
Not gordon
But a reporter quoting him
Next week a different reporter
Will quote him differently
Cop on ffs

Oh dear....who said what ? Father Jack is back from another bender

From Oddschecker who use multiple sources.

ABACADABRAS is the one to take out of the two races in question and, as it was only his fifth race over hurdles, there is a fair possibility he’ll keep on improving. Additionally, all the post-race chat from his connections’ strongly indicated he’s likely to stay over hurdles - and at the two-mile trip - for next season and if that does turn out to be the case, he has the all the makings of a very interesting contender for the Champion Hurdle. Although he handled the testing ground in the Supreme well enough, he’d be extremely unfortunate if he were to encounter similar conditions should he make the gig a year on and that bodes well for a horse whose main weapon is his sharp turn of foot. Likely to stay on home soil until March, the Grade 2 WKD Hurdle at Down Royal is likely to be his first port of call (same race as stable mate Coeur Sublime won this season) and providing he comes through that race with flying colours, the two big Grade 1’s at Leopardstown are then a strong possibility. As there doesn’t appear to be too many strong candidates in this department in his own back yard at present, these sort of races should be well within his grasp and then it should be all systems go in his bid to provide The Gigginstown Stud operation with their first Champion Hurdle winner.

Oddschecker use multiple sources ?

Wouldn't be bookmakers would they ? 

So the bookies are double bluffing us by offering Arkle prices of 16/1 - 25/1 on a horse beaten a nose in the Supreme when Shishkin is 4/1 for the same race. Fill yer boots then....

I wish I was your bookie

Wrong again

Shiskin won by a head not a nose

You probably had a better view from the Best mate enclosure......when you have been wined and dined by Paddy Power in their box for 3 hours your memory can be a bit hazy.

Wrong again... I was in tatts

Drunken ramblings tonight as well !

Klassical Dream must have a serious chance in this if jumping a fence this year which I assume he will.. Should have went last year and ran in a poor Arkle

Allmankind threw his hat into the ring for the 2021 Arkle today.

Shiskin is the one unless one of last season's Champion Hurdle contenders excel in this discipline; Shishkin and Envoi Allen for a short-price double for the Festival.

Impossible

put up a thread on horse racing skybet request a bet last week Shishkin and envoi to remain unbeaten in the season 33/1

hope you are well
regards
Ronnie.

yes ronnie the proviso being at least 3 runs each

Foyleswar

correct I up so far just thought they will run in a couple of micky mouse races till March.

hope you are well
regards
Ronnie.

fine ronnie hope you are too, off for at least a month ron my son is a manager of a billies ,hope you are getting 100% of wages on the lockdown from joes , gotta say billies treated my son well on the last lockdown he got 100% from them,cant complain !

Foylsewar

fine thank you
Joes paid me 100% last time and the same this time Corals have always been good to me invited me to boxes at Ascot Cheltenham Sandown and York.
regarding the bet in question what price do  you think  Shiskhin will be on its first 3 starts.

Ronnie.

Sorry
2 starts

prob unbackable 3s on or something ronnie hendo will want to give him a nice easy run around in a small field

if all goes as expected next race he will be odds on, then the arkle .

Foyleswar

I can see the double in March paying 3/1
regards
Ronnie.

its possible ronnie, plenty will want to avoid envoi and go rsa .

Thanks. I've a few @11/1 win double (any race) and more with 'sly' and 'billies'. I hope it materialises.

Shishkin could debut Monday at Kempton, very excited to see that.

It will be interesting but as Pic D'ory ran today, he is unlikely to be stretched. Eldorado Allen and Allmankind still my Arkle horses.

Nico is jocked up for Shishkin at Kempton on monday. If jumping slickly and winning convincingly his already measly Cheltenham price could half, I reckon.

the 33/1 not a bad bet

have a good day
regards
Ronnie.