Cheltenham Festival

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17 Mar 18 17:09
Date Joined: 02 Sep 14
| Topic/replies: 1,074 | Blogger: Paterson92's blog
Go on, admit it, you’ve either looked at or bet a horse for next year already before withdrawing those winnings Laugh

I’ll be the first to admit I’ve had a few quid on Shattered Love at 25/1 for the Gold Cup ....
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Report deepingfox March 17, 2018 6:39 PM GMT
With Sommervile Boy having been halfway down 2 put, getting back to compete, and then clotting the last, he is probably good for a 5 length win, with a clear round.

This years Champion Hurdle was modest, and BD couldn't have wished for weaker Competition.

I can see the Supreme winner improving the 10lb in his second season to be better than all the British contenders to BD, so 25/1 seems one of the better prices on offer.

The Irish had nothing coming out of the Supreme, SAMCRO probably would go chasing, I like Laurina but not sure she would go Champion Hurdle route, that leaves the Triumph, which usually brings nothing to the fore for the next season.

I like Shattered Love too, interesting to look back at her form with Presenting Percy.
Report BigField March 17, 2018 7:00 PM GMT
deepingfox I admire your faith in Sommerville Boy but have to think the result would have been different on good ground
Report the bloob March 17, 2018 8:16 PM GMT
the connections of Kalashnikov think the horse needs better ground, which would make him a serious animal. I have a feeling Summerville Boy needs bad ground, and the chances of getting that at Cheltenham are slim, this year being an obvious exception
Report cufcno1 March 17, 2018 9:24 PM GMT
Chante neige  mares hurdle nap
Report unclepuncle March 17, 2018 9:40 PM GMT
Although not previously a fan of his one had to be impressed with Penhill and 8/1 looked very fair to me with nothing obvious to come out of the novice hurdle races to challenge him. Supasundae looks the only danger and the 14/1 on him is value to.

Agree that Summerville Boy looks a tempting price at 25/1 if he stays over hurdles and I’m not too worried about the ground for him, though obviously soft going would be a bonus. His sire won on firm going at Royal Ascot!!

The novice chases are pretty much impossible to bet on with so many options for Samcro, but maybe Santini @ 16/1 for the RSA as it’s hard to see
him going for anything else.
Report deepingfox March 17, 2018 9:59 PM GMT
Here what your saying on soft ground for Summerville Boy, but at present the only thing proven from his current career of 1 NHF race and 5 hurdles, is the only two times he has ran in races that weren't a crawl, he has won 2 grade 1's.

He was the least experienced runner in the Supreme, stumbled badly, jumped novicey at times, and still got up.

The horse has an engine.

He cost me a 16/1 win, by chinning Kalashnikov on the run in, (for a 2nd time) and, I now, don't think there's a way that SB will not turn out a better hurdler than the runner-up, based on their 2 grade 1 runs.

For me SB has untapped, raw potential, and in fast run affairs he is much better.

Ground conditions are unproven for him. He wins on soft and heavy becuause that's what the races are run on this year. We don't know yet if he is good, bad or the same on Good ground,

if he is better on it, and improves for his first season out of a field, and he brushes up his hurdling technique, then he could be right in the mix for the Champion Hurdle.

For me he is the best ANte Post price in the markets currently at 25/1.

Look forward to hearing of other contenders for best price in the lists.
Report the bloob March 17, 2018 10:47 PM GMT
I think that's a fair shout deepingfox, and with his jumping not being too great he is likely to stay over hurdles. After his first few runs the improvement was dramatic in the last 2 runs, on softer ground, and that could just be down to natural improvement and not because of the ground. The only worry is that he may not be able to keep up over 2m on spring ground, but 25/1 does seem worth a bet
Report Gustavo_1000 March 18, 2018 12:03 PM GMT
I would be interested in where Black Op goes, he didn’t jump great got boxed in around the final bend where Samcro got away from him, wasn’t great at the last and finished 2.1/2lengths behind Sandro. Now I’m not saying he would of beat Samcro as it seems to be wildly aknowledged that he was idling, but that still left him 5L clear of next Destination and Black Op clearly wasn’t stopping. Any thoughts?
Report buddeliea March 18, 2018 12:31 PM GMT
I dont think Samcro was idling at all and i also think had Black Op jumped the last well it would have been very close.
No idea where Black Op will go next season,but i do feel hes a good one.
If Samcro is then he is imo.
Report wellchief March 18, 2018 1:18 PM GMT
Not even thinking of having a bet but 14/1 Supasundae, 25/1 and 16/1 for Blow by Blow in the RSA and JLT respectively and Kalashnikov at 14's in the Arkle would interest me most.

I see Laurina is 16/1 for the Champion but surely she'll be an odds on fav in the Mares?
Report equine flew March 19, 2018 8:49 AM GMT
SB a shout, I was actually worried about the ground.  I remember reading the below from Feb.

Tom George was pleased to see Summerville Boy's Sky Bet Supreme claims boosted bu Kalashnikov's win in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury.

Amy Murphy's stable star took the competitive Betfair Hurdle in great style having previously filled the runner-up spot behind Summerville Boy in the Tolworth Hurdle at Sandown.

"It gives his form a solid look and our horse will definitely enjoy a bit better ground than it was at Sandown - it's not like he needs heavy ground," said George.

"The two races he's had at Cheltenham were more of a learning process, he needed to learn to settle and everything else. He needs a strongly-run race and the first time he got it was in the Tolworth.

"The other two races were good for him to learn but they weren't much good for him at the time. You'd think he will surely get the strong pace he needs in the Supreme."
Report ReaseHeath March 19, 2018 1:17 PM GMT
I think Topofthegame has every chance of making up into a top class staying chaser for Paul Nicholls. Very simplistic, but if you compare the weight he carried when finishing second in the Coral Cup vs Supasundae when winning last year and look at what Supasundae has gone on to achieve since, you'd be encouraged.The horse is enormous (I appreciate the very big ones don't always fulfill their potential) but he looks to me to have an attitude to match his size.

Decision to abort his chase career quickly this year and preserve his novice status looks a good one and the experience gained in three big field handicap hurdles should prove invaluable going forward.

I can't back him antepost now because, with or without Samcro, the RSA looks potentially pretty deep and the JLT would obviously be an option. I just wonder though if it might be a good idea to target the NH Chase though bearing in mind his big field experience and what Native River has gone on to achieve after finishing runner up in that a couple of years back.

The NH Chase might be a very popular contest next year...
Report Nogoody March 19, 2018 2:01 PM GMT
Would Shattered Love not be trained for the Ryanair or where else might she be aimed?
Report unclepuncle March 19, 2018 7:03 PM GMT
Tom George confirming that Summerville Boy will be aimed at the Champion Hurdle and won’t run again this season.Cool
Report deepingfox March 20, 2018 10:31 PM GMT
Sea of Blue on Oddschecker for SUMMERVILLE BOY for The Champion Hurdle, ...........Wooooosssshhhhh.

Still can't believe his recovery at the 2nd last, leading to a win - the most remarkable equine performance of the week.
Report geoff m March 21, 2018 7:21 AM GMT
You will get a better price Summerville Boy after hes beat in small field slow run trials like the Bula/Fighting Fifth/Xmas Hurdle and heavy ground would appear to be pre requisite to bring his strong suit stamina into play
Report irishone March 21, 2018 10:33 AM GMT
i was so pleased with shattered loves performance in november when beating miss eyecatcher at clonmel that i immediately started backing her for cheltenham and put her up on various forums herein prior to the race. the defeat by jury duty blotted her copybook at the time but now with presenting percyand arbre de vie behind her how good was that punchestown form and how unlucky or mishandled ? has miss eyecatcher been, because on that day at clonmel she made two mistakes and was still closing on shattered love at the finish
Report PeteTheBloke March 21, 2018 6:09 PM GMT
I can't see any "Any race at Chelt" markets yet - Samcro would probably be unbackable anyway -
would love to know which he'll go for.
Report wondersobright March 21, 2018 6:59 PM GMT

Mar 19, 2018 -- 2:03PM, unclepuncle wrote:

Tom George confirming that Summerville Boy will be aimed at the Champion Hurdle and won’t run again this season.

will be a million in a champion hurdle on quicker ground

plenty of targets (easier pots) to aim at through the winter when far more likely to get his ground

Report unclepuncle March 21, 2018 7:07 PM GMT
It won’t get a fast pace in those though? Maybe aim him at the Greatwood off top weight?
Report wondersobright March 21, 2018 7:16 PM GMT
they could run a pacemaker if they are worried about pace in small field races

brookhouse has got plenty of money
Report deepingfox March 21, 2018 8:10 PM GMT
The best way to make profit in the long run is not to go with the herd.

I'm hearing SUMMERVILLE BOY needs soft ground, from most posters, regarding the horse - which is music to my ears.

Because to me, he has raced only on soft ground, and the determining factor to his wins was fast pace races, and his losses were in slow run races.

I don't believe it's proven at all, whether he is only able to win races on soft ground.
Report geoff m March 21, 2018 10:53 PM GMT
It isnt proven @ all he can win races over hurdles on soft ground(even)........ only heavy
Report Govan Spoonful March 22, 2018 3:00 PM GMT
Promised myself that any early bets for next year would be bookies' freebies and have duly had £10 on Presenting Percy for the Gold Cup. but seeing Supasundae 14/1 with Lads was just too tempting not to have a little cash each-way. The horse is as low as 7s or 8s with some firms.
Report irishone March 22, 2018 9:27 PM GMT
only two iM on

PENHILL .....stayers
Report wellchief March 23, 2018 7:48 AM GMT
Yanworth, Yorkhill and Finians Oscar Gold Cup reverse tricast for me....the order in which they finish last, second to last and third to last.
Report impossible123 March 23, 2018 10:32 AM GMT
'wellchief', since you are such a connoisseur of horse racing and avid poster of selective and negative titbits after the events (aftertiming) of another poster did you back Ballyandy and Kalashnikov for the Betfair Hurdle prior to the event two years running?
Report duffy March 23, 2018 3:10 PM GMT
Yorkhill is going to run in the Melling chase, I wish they'd stop throwing him at differing races and just try and find out what's "actually" wrong with him.....he must have a physical problem.

He may be a figure of fun for many now but he was a classy 2 time festival winner not so long ago, I hope he gets back.
Report impossible123 March 23, 2018 3:23 PM GMT
Indeed, pack Yorkhill off for the season and start afresh again next season with very clear objectives unless he's proven to be another Air Force Blue ie did not train on. It's sad and disappointed that his handlers do not have a firm game plan for him so far this season. If I was his owner I'd give him a new scenery ie a change of stable, to try and reinvigorate his appetite for racing. Otherwise retire him,...he does not owe his connections anything.
Report duffy March 23, 2018 4:27 PM GMT
It's clear now that it isn't anything to do with trip or discipline, if he's tailing off at half way or before then why aren't they investigating properly physical's astonishing that you just never hear anything about what's going wrong with him, they just chuck him at another race and hope for the bestCrazyCrazy
Report unclepuncle March 23, 2018 7:45 PM GMT
He should never have run at Cheltenham - pure vanity (whether the owner or trainer is anyone’s guess).

Looks gone at the game but maybe a change of scenery might help.
Report impossible123 March 23, 2018 8:53 PM GMT
Did Yorkhill not break a bone in his leg in one of the races, and was turned out again pretty soon after? I wonder if he is still suffering from that.
Report johnslad March 23, 2018 11:38 PM GMT
Had a match bet treble on 1st day 2 in 2.50 and melon v Yorkhill in CH,bet odds wrote on slip from coupon and as opening show was already in for 2.50 when bet placed (both were 1/1 on coupon against odds on opponents so expected adjustments as both were equally priced on 1st show)so checked odds on CH both were 16/1 so was hopeful of 10/11,after collecting questioned payment  and asked when Mellon price changed from 10/11 to 8/11 was showed on screen 12.28 and it shortened further still after time my bet was placed so was of opinion their liabilities was to do with people taking an opinion this was a mismatch probably related to some of your opinions
Report wellchief March 24, 2018 9:04 AM GMT
Kalashnikov (K) and Ballyandy (BA) ey 'Impossible'? Well done, buy yourself a bottle of champagne on my behalf please, make sure it's a really expensive one too, you deserve it.

This is still coming from the guy who said Willie Mullins (WM) put Black Hercules (BH) in the wrong race at Cheltenham despite winning. Enough said really.

I'm not as good as you obviously, my main bet at the minute is £20 that the world will end in the next 5 years at 20,000/1. I'll be rich when that happens so looking forward to spending my winnings.

The thread "where are all the regular posters", I wonder why lots have gone?

Also comparing Yorkhill (Y) to a 2 year old flat horse (AHB) who didn't train on isn't really a comparison to be honest.
Report PeteTheBloke March 24, 2018 10:46 AM GMT
Wise up, you two. People are trying to have sensible conversations.
Report wellchief March 24, 2018 11:18 AM GMT
Exit stage door left for me and the Betfair Forum
Report unclepuncle March 24, 2018 2:00 PM GMT
Just put the **** on ignore Wellchief.
Report buddeliea March 24, 2018 2:17 PM GMT
Dont you be going as well Chief.Sad
Report ReaseHeath March 24, 2018 2:23 PM GMT
^ what they said wellchief (WC)
Report irishone March 24, 2018 6:45 PM GMT
its actually a much healthier part of the forum
hope you people dont let the b4tards get you down
Report duffy March 25, 2018 12:03 AM GMT
     24 Mar 18 09:04 

my main bet at the minute is £20 that the world will end in the next 5 years at 20,000/1. I'll be rich when that happens so looking forward to spending my winnings.

I'm surprised they let you have all that £20 on. Wink
Report PeteTheBloke March 25, 2018 6:05 PM BST
£10 at 20,000/1 and the other tenner at SP
Report foxy March 26, 2018 7:44 AM BST
monalee ryanair

samcro champion hurdle

it would be a shame if well chief no longer posted .
Report duffy March 26, 2018 1:49 PM BST
I'm sure WC will continue to post. I must say I don't subscribe and don't understand people who leave forums through other posters. I could understand it if you had to meet people in person who might get on your t1ts somewhat, but not when we are (for the most part) complete strangers where all that anyone can do is post a message.
Report duffy March 26, 2018 7:32 PM BST
Sizing john 20's GC

Laurina 14's CH

Apples Jade 4's MH

Penhill 6's SH
Report eric_morris March 27, 2018 2:24 PM BST
Report eric_morris March 27, 2018 2:48 PM BST
How depressing that a company like Slybet are announcing £210 million revenue when they limit anyone with half a clue. There are a lot of mugs out there in the uk working for nothing with all their spare cash going to the likes of Bet£3.65 making half a billion profit a year and all the others. No protection for them in the UK either with bookies paid lackies in parliament, every man and woman for themselves with gambling.
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