Cheltenham Festival

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11 Mar 18 12:56
Date Joined: 04 Nov 05
| Topic/replies: 246 | Blogger: tony2914's blog
With the going now likely to be soft maybe heavy dont you think the 2mile option would be better as i dnt think he will stay the longer trip with its free running style especially with the ground testing , plus for the pure spectical of him trying to get altior off the bridle would be great to watch.
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Report buddeliea March 11, 2018 8:50 PM GMT
Yeh it would be great for us racing fans,very exciting.
And to be fair they have said they would consider the Champion Chase if it came up suitable ground.
Well it aint gonna be more suitable than this week by the looks of it.
I know the owners mentioned the possibilty if it came up very soft,i saw the interview with them after a race this season.
I sincerely hope they can persuade their trainer to go for it.
Report sixtwosix March 11, 2018 8:55 PM GMT
Nothing like as free running as he once was.
When the horse(forget name) led at a mad dash at Ascot , he sat in behind .

Beating Altior is not an easy task  ,the field for the Ryanair is very weak , 12 year old who has tipped up at last 2 festivals and a horse who has not run for a year because of injury.
Only concern is they persuade Cloudy Dream to try not finishing second for a change.
Report buddeliea March 11, 2018 9:02 PM GMT
Fair comments,and its my fear that they will see the Ryanair as the easier race to win.
He has won the Ryanair though,and the race on Wednesday would be tailor made for a horse that goes so well in soft ground 2m races.
RE the way he runs now,thats also a fair comment,but for me i would be inclined to let him do his thing in a Champion Chase,especially on ground he handles so well.
Report buddeliea March 12, 2018 7:27 AM GMT
Well its decision day.

I really hope the decision is not about which horse is more likely to be affected by where UDS runs.......Min in the Champion Chase or Douvan in the Ryanair.
I really hope the decision is about which race is most suitable for UDS,given conditions this week.
I suspect it will be the former,and UDS will end up in Ryanair cos they fancy Min more than Douvan.
Report Pleasegivemeanailedontip March 12, 2018 9:33 AM GMT
No financial interest, no toys out if im wrong, but UDS champion chase makes more sense to me.

Think Ruby said after he won the ryanair that he gets that trip on better ground?

The thought of Douvan and UDS in the tin pot o'leary race while Min goes in the championship race does have me reaching for the toys a bit though..
Report impossible123 March 12, 2018 9:36 AM GMT
I think the CC is unlikely for UDS as that would decrease the chance of Min who is owned by the chief patron of Closutton Stable.
Report buddeliea March 12, 2018 9:40 AM GMT
Thats not what it should be about though imp.
Report ACStafford March 12, 2018 9:41 AM GMT
Champion Chase certainly makes sense to me on the ground, but I can't see them wanting to run Douvan in these conditions, so I assume Ruby will want the other two split.
Report firstimevisor March 12, 2018 9:49 AM GMT
With the changing conditions I think UDS may well be switched to the QM now and I wouldn't be shocked if it is Min, rather than Douvan, who runs in the Ryanair.
Report impossible123 March 12, 2018 9:49 AM GMT
If I was the owner of UDS I'd like to make sure my horse had the best chance of winning a race, and the Ryanair would be that race. Otherwise, Douvan would not have been switched to the Ryanair, why? To avoid Altior and/or Min; if either/both of these is/are absent then yes, I'd be all for it.

I'd not wish to be conducive to Mullins/Ricci just to engineer an easier passage and to accommodate Douvan in the Ryanair.  No way.
Report ACStafford March 12, 2018 9:56 AM GMT
I'd fancy him to beat Min in the conditions.
Report impossible123 March 12, 2018 9:59 AM GMT
If UDS runs against Douvan in the Ryanair my money will be on UDS, but only on race day.
Report Flashy March 12, 2018 11:04 PM GMT
UDS Champion chase in heavy ground is the obvious race. Without Altior he would probably be fav. Don't understand how this horse has never been given the chance in this race....let alone the champion hurdle in its younger days.
Report ACStafford March 12, 2018 11:31 PM GMT
He was given the chance once and was beaten by a 10 year old, albeit a very good one!
Report buddeliea April 24, 2018 6:38 PM BST
Should have been given the chance again.
Report firstimevisor April 24, 2018 11:45 PM BST
Yes he would obviously have beaten Altior by 8 lengths!
Report buddeliea April 25, 2018 8:00 AM BST
Well the way the race panned out,UDS would probably have had a fair lead at some point, had he been ridden as he was yesterday and on that ground we had at the festival.
Altior may well have picked him up,hes pure class,.......sadly we were not given the chance to find out.
I think for us racing fans that may well have been a race we would have been talking about for sometime.
Oh well!!
Report firstimevisor April 25, 2018 12:15 PM BST
But we were  given the chance to compare. He did run in the Ryanair and he had his ideal ground but he was beaten comfortably enough by Balko Des Flos. In fact BDF had his measure half a mile from home so if you really believe UDS could have won the QM then surely BDF would have been a certainty!

In that race yesterday UDS ran his usual consistent race as we would expect. Min certainly did not and Douvan did not travel or jump as well as in Cheltenham before the fall.

They have done a brilliant job with UDS all through his career and Mullins deserves credit for that. If he had run in the QM and got stuffed then you'd be crabbing Mullins for not going back for the Ryanair.
Report buddeliea April 25, 2018 12:24 PM BST
As they ran in  different races at different comparism.
I have already stated I think hes best at 2m, so I would never crab running in the QM.

They have a done a good job as far as prizemoney for the owners, but imo they could have had at least one Champion Hurdle and one Champion Chase....depending on whether they had actually gone chasing after winning the Champion Hurdle.
Report cyclops May 2, 2018 12:17 PM BST
What piece (or pieces) of form, budd, would you unearth that would have given UDS the remotest chance of winning a Champion Hurdle?

Best hurdle rating of 164 and never faced a top class opponent as far as I know. Also, never ran over hurdles on anything but his favoured soft going, which he would not have had in any Champion of that era.

Over fences, I'd have thought the way Sprinter Scare brushed him aside twice (and being beaten by Fox Norton and Balko) shows his limitations.

A legendary horse and a wonderful one, and last week's win was fantastic, but astutely campaigned and short of the very best over hurdles and fences for my money.
Report firstimevisor May 2, 2018 10:47 PM BST
Agree 100% with cyclops here. I thought this had been put to bed long ago but it seems not.

In March 2014 UDS was rated 156 and he ran to  a pound of this rating every time he raced. He had no idea how to race at this time and ran flat out from the start so every race was ,in effect, a time trial. Even when he was winning 3 runner races against meaningless opposition he was running to the same mark. So when he went to France less than 2 weeks after Cheltenham , and met some decent opposition for the first time, he had the chance to prove this rating was all wrong.He beat Gemix by a nose, all out. Gemix was UK rated 164 and gave UDS 8 pounds so UDS again ran to 156 and on his return trip to France he once again ran to a  winning mark of 156/157 when scoring by 2+ lengths.

So we can say, with absolute conviction, that he had no business trying to win the Champion Hurdle that year.The Fly was rated 175, Jezki 168,The New One 167, MTOY 167.The Fly had an off day but the chances of all 4 blowing out was nearly impossible. UDS wouldn't have been mapped.
Report Arklearkle May 3, 2018 5:47 PM BST
It wont be put to bed until someone steals Budd's bone. Tbf to Budd we can never be certain. I agree 2 miles is/was his ideal distance but it was never soft enough for him to win either of those two races.
Report Arklearkle May 3, 2018 5:52 PM BST
Besides he didnt have the hurdling experience to win the Ch Hurdle that year either and we know what happens when inexperienced hurdlers take on the big boys
Report buddeliea May 4, 2018 7:10 AM BST
Tbf to Budd we can never be certain

And thats been my thing ever since i started on this umpteen years ago!!

I thought when he won his Grade 2 in Feb,he should then have been stepped up to Grade 1 company a month later at Cheltenham,nothing i have seen or heard,or read since alters that view. He had shown he deserved it imo.
Instead he was upped in trip and sent to France,in what imo was bizarre!! As i have the opinion that a 2m race playing catch me if you can was the way to run his races,as he had been,i have no interest in his france races as as a way of judging him.
I am as certain as i can possibly be(without knowing for sure)that he was capable of a much higher rating than he was allowed to achieve over hurdles.
Had he been given the chance he would either have proved me correct,or as others on here have said over the years i would have been proved wrong.
As for inexperience,yes,but then he would have been out in front as he was used to be,and it would simply have been a case of will they catch him, and i dont think that was a certainty either way, but it would have been very interesting finding out imo,and sadly we never got the chance to see it.
And it would have saved me a few hours on here Laugh
Report firstimevisor May 4, 2018 1:49 PM BST
Well he ran almost exactly to the same level in France, the only difference was that he now had some meaningful competition to compare with,so his French form was more significant than his Irish form.

He achieved his highest hurdle mark,164, 2 years later,also in France by beating the same horses easily. This was after the 2 beatings by Sprinter Sacre. He had learned how to switch off and was now a much better horse for it.Prior to the Champion Hurdle of 2014 he had run 5 races in total, 3 of these were in open company where he beat a total of 7 ordinary handicappers at odds of 1-12, 1-14 and 1-16.

If he was a champion hurde winner-in-waiting don't you think Mullins would have figured it out? He said all along that the horse wasn't ready for Cheltenham at that stage and he doesn't like to over face his horses. He knows his horses a hell of a lot better than we do and its fair to say he knows what it takes to win it.

What I really don't understand though is your stance on this compared to, say, Waiting Patiently, a 7 yo who has run 10 times over 3 seasons. Who beat Politologue 1n a grade 2 as a novice and who beat Cue Card and Top Notch in a quality grade 1 in January. As I recall you were quite vocal in your support for their decision to bypass the Ryanair as they felt it was the right thing to do and they knew the horse better than us.That's fair enough but I'm struggling to square up your contrasting viewpoints here.
Report buddeliea May 4, 2018 6:17 PM BST
As i have said, i have no interest in his french form.
Imo hes best at 2 miles not 2 and a half,where he can bowl along at his pace he enjoys and have something left for the finish.
Its the distance hes most comfortable at imo,and where he produces his best performances.
Unfortunately he never had a go at a Grade 1 2m hurdle race,and why that was we probably will never know, but i am sure as i can be that had his trainer not have had Hurricane Fly,then UDS would have represented the stable in the Champion Hurdle.
Whether he would have proved up to it i really dont know,but i am of the opinion that he deserved a chance of showing us.
I think Mullins knew what nhe had, but tried to win as many races as he could,which can be fine of course,but imo it resulted in UDS going further that his optimum,and Jezki beating Hurricane Fly.
Then Faugheen came along,and UDS was now chasing.

As for Waiting Patiently,his connections said they werent sure about Cheltenham for him,so when people started saying on here,he should run in Ryanair,i simply pointed that out.
I think they were honest with their horse, i dont think Mullins was with UDS.
Sorry if that upsets anyone, but its how i feel.
Report firstimevisor May 4, 2018 11:59 PM BST
Ok Budd, French form doesn't do it for you. Neither do RPRs or actual handicap ratings.So here is my opinion of how UDS' Cheltenham CV would look were he not trained by WP Mullins but were instead trained by Buddeliea and lets assume you are just as talented at training them.

2014.... 5th in Champion Hurdle behind Jezki,MTOY, TNO, Fly(followed by a summer break and no trips to France)
2015....(He surely deserved another crack) 6th in Champion Hurdle behind Faugheen,Arctic Fire, Fly, Jezki, TNO
2016.... 3rd Arkle Chase behind Douvan and Sizing John
2017.... A tricky one this and remembered more for the injury to the odds on fav..3rd in QM behind Special Tiara and Fox Norton(debateable but FN did beat him fair and square when they met)
2018.... Rallied gamely to snatch 2nd from Min behind easy winner Altior.

At least you were "honest with the horse" even if it doesn't look like that on his CV!
Report buddeliea May 5, 2018 6:50 AM BST
I think,finally!!!,its time to put this to bed.
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