stayers hurdle 2018

Connections have confirmed Yanworth will run in the Sun Bets Stayers' Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival next month.

Nice one.

impossible123 - good call. Well done.

Thanks. Have some juicy 10/1 and 7/1 all nrnb singles, doubles and trebles with Footpad, Yorkhill (Ryanair, nrnb) and Native River or Sizing John. All I need now is for either Yorkhill to run in the Ryanair or Champion Hurdle (without BD).

Yanworth ought to be competing for favouritism given he started fav for the Champion Hurdle and 2nd in the Neptune, and owned by JP renowned for taking on the bookies.

A word of caution before everyone steams into Yanworth in the Stayers: horses that have previously run in the Champion hurdle have a shocking record in the Stayers.

But horses that have a touch of 2 mile class which Yanworth has ISH don't do bad, Solwhit and Nichol's Canyon recently.

and both ran in champion hurdle prior to Stayers Hurdle wins...so ain't a bad record recently after all really!!

and of course, Annie did it the other way around

The present bunch, apart from the young improving pretender Sam Spinner, is much of a muchness eg Supasundae the fav who was 2nd to Apple's Jade and beat the aging, issues ridden and declining Faugheen. I think this is the race with the best chance of a win for Yanworth at this Festival after a couple of false dawns in the past.

If Harry Fry is proven right a rejuvenated Unowhatimeanharry (Uno) could be the one to beat as he said said Uno was not right in his last run. The other could be Sam Spinner an improving youngster who won well last time, but I do not rate L'Ami Serge who always flatters to deceive in his races.

Not sure Yanworth deserves to be fav Imp having been novice chasing (not particularly impressively) all year and not even ran in any of the big trials over hurdles. Sure he beat Supasundae last year, but a year can be a long time in racing and Supasundae has been nothing but impressive this year going into the race in the form of his life.

Re the 2m point, it's a very good one but personally don't think Yanworth has anywhere near as much class as Solwhit or Nichols Canyon, who were top draw 2 milers; I'm afraid Yanworth wasn't.

He should'nt be fav i agree Chief,and he werent top drawer at 2miles,but he may be now hes running where he should be.
Big player in this stayers hurdle.

I'd not swap Yanworth with any other runner for this race. He could emulate Buveur D'Air as he's the class and stamina to usurp the present fav, and probably Sam Spinner (my biggest worry). I'm glad connections have taken a leaf out of Hendo and Co and postpone his aspiration into a Gold Cup horse (eventually).

To me Yanworth is definitely my 'silver bullet' for this race. Now, I just hope he gets there in one piece and reaps just reward and atones for the disappointments suffered by supporters in past Festivals.

He has only run one poor race in two seasons and has been crying out for three miles,the favourite won't stay and the rest of the field is pretty average,will be favourite come the day and the biggest worry is Barry holding him up until over the last

Just can't take to this horse sorry. I'd definitely despute the 'only one poor race' comment myself. Can see the argument that he needs a trip but can just see there being one or two too good for him.  It'll come down to Yanworth hitting a flat spot (he always does in his races) and then what can find after that against really good up and coming ones like Supasundae and Sam Spinner.

I agree Yanworth is in the right race but I think life has moved on since he last raced over 3m hurdles and there are better stayer hurdlers than him. I have been all-in on Supasundae since October and he has just got better and better since. Delighted with last race winning over 2miles. I genuinely think he is the real deal and have no doubt he will stay over 3m. And for once its not pocket talking .......yet !!!!!

unowhatimeanharry the forgotten horse. Announced a def. runner today by Alan King. Last years running looks an awful lot better than the current lot and he wasn't beaten far.

Paddy Power and Betfair have Yanworth shorter than Supasundae; I'm amazed by that tbh

Uno could do a Treve, and JP gets his 1st and 2nd. Here's hoping.

Yanworth has beaten Supasundae over 3m,and Supasundae has never won over 3m. So it should not be that much of a surprise Chief.
Not saying either will win or not,both have a fair chance imo.
Out of the two i would be fairly confident that Yanworth would get home better,but of course its possible that Supasundae is now a better horse than Yanworth.
Im just glad hes now in the race he imo should always have been in.
Fav should be Sam Spinner,and i think he will be.

I am honestly surprised Budd.  Yanworth has been plodding along in novice chases this year, not performing particularly well over middle distances.  I know those are probably over too short a trip, but I expected him to perform much better than he did.  I'd be much more inclined to support him if they pulled stumps on the chasing a while ago and actually put him over a hurdles race as a prep.

I am not reading too much into last year's Aintree run, although I'm not ignoring it as it is Yanworth's best run to date imo.  There was only a length in it, and Supasundae has really kicked on since then - Yanworth hasn't imo.  Yanworth's flat spots would be a concern to me too - the best of them have had them (Big Bucks springs to mind in this race), and he's vulnerable to one who can ge him off the bridle and out of his comfort zone early.

I've not got a bet in this now (laid off my Bacardys bet for a small profit because concerned he hasn't ran for ages - been entered but declared a non runner), so viewing this race with an open mind.

Considering he has run poor over fences his actual form puts him very close and arguably in front of the favourite for the jlt

More due to the JLT looking like a poor renewal, with a weak favourite rather than good performances by Yanworth though. If Yanworth is a true 3 miler (he must be if he's in this) he'd get nowhere near the principles in the RSA imo, which looks a strong renewal.

He'd struggle to get near the RSA principles as he doesn't jump fences well enough, surely that's obvious. It's clear from his runs over fences the engine is still there and fine as he gave away so much ground at the fences in his chases.

When was Bacardys declared a non runner? I know he was pulled out at Gowran in January over nasal discharge but I didn't hear anything since and he was entered up last weekend.

Sorry well chief, misread about Bacardys.

Although the market on here is not promising for him turning up to be honest

Not a non runner in the Stayers, just concerned he's been entered a couple of times recently and hasn't ended up running, not the type of prep I'd like.

Could be right about the fences. It's obvious its me vs the world on this, so I'll leave it for now and just see how he runs in the Stayers and will admit I was wrong if he wins.

I just think he's being priced up on an Aintree race 12 months ago; very risky strategy when taking what could be 3/1 or so.

I was a fan of Yanworth's after the festival bumper where I thought he was unlucky (McCoy got caught out IMO), anyway as time went on I went off him and particularly at 2 miles he simply never had the change of gear and got caught out.

However, everything has it's price as it were and the more I think about it the more I like the idea of 3 miles for him, the times that he has been caught out particularly over hurdles have been against quicker horses over shorter trips. In this race he won't encounter that type of opposition and the ability he has to travel through his races will help him greatly, he's completely unexposed at the trip and if you look back to the Liverpool win he wasn't doing a tap in front.

The race looks to lack depth quality wise and I could definitely see him going off fav...I'm quite pleased with myself that I fancy him because I've proved to myself that I'm capable of fancying something that isn't "one of my horses"

Everything about Yanworth,his form,watching him etc, just screams staying hurdler to me.
Whether he is good enough is another matter,but i am pretty sure this is his best chance of success.

Chief
He was available at 10 nrnb when trainer said they were thinking about reverting back to hurdles.
Agree re 3/1 or so though.

Yanworth is a top class hurdler over any trip. His champion Hurdle run last year was just too bad to be true, he ran no race at all and finished well behind too many horses he had already beaten easily . It wasn't the trip it was just an off day and its just wrong to pigeonhole him as a 3 miler.

Apart from that one run he is actually otherwise unbeaten over 2 miles, hurdles and fences. This includes a Grade 1 where he comfortably beat the reliable yardsticks The New One and My Tent Or Yours, and had they gone the Champion Hurdle route with him this year I would have expected him to hit the frame, just as I would expect him to win ,or go very close ,in the Stayers Hurdle.

Otherwise unbeaten over 2 miles maybe but obvious that's not his trip. Prefer Sundae myself. Although Faugheen wasn't at his best in defeat, Sundae looks the improver. Would be hopeful trip, ground etc all falls into place on the day

Well his record over 2 miles is 6 wins from 7. He has beaten supposed 2m specialists like The New One, MTOY, Sceau Royal, Ch'tibello and Charbel over this trip so, no matter what way i look at it, I cannot see how its obvious 2 miles is not his trip. The fact is, his trip is any trip between 2 miles and 3 miles. His owner also owns Buveur D'air so it makes sense that they would run him in the Stayers Hurdle

I’ve said elsewhere that I thought that they should keep him over fences - but they haven’t and so probably think that this is the more winnable option. They may be right as the RSA looks a pretty hot race, but this one is no walkover either.
I’ve always said that the Stayers is a race for slow horses and it might just be that Yanworth fits the bill there, but it’s rarely won by anything less than a very good performance and I’m not sure he has one of them in him at the Festival. I just think he will come up short for the 4th season running, despite being well fancied in each of those races.

Has Supasundae improved? He was outstayed by Apple's Jade over 24f who is more effective over 20f, in my opinion; he was also beaten and outstayed by Yanworth in the Ryanair Hurdle at Aintree and adversary here (again). 

I think the improver Sam Spinner would be a shorter price than either Yanworth and Supasundae but for his stable.

Thought Sundae asked Jade a very serious question, then to beat Faugheen (still very useful) excellent form

The problem I (if it is a problem) always have with the Sam Spinners of this world, i.e. the improver out of handicaps is that I've got to see them do it at the highest level before I believe it, I mean his two last runs of been good but it's not long since he's been beaten getting 6lbs by Court Minstrel. 5/1...shocking price now.

Thing is though Duffy,hes now a different horse since stepping up to 3m,and he has to be priced around that after his last run imo.

Both Beer Goggles and Sam Spinner were overrated after beating Unowhatimeanharry but the Fry stable form might have a lot to do with that. Beer Goggles was well beaten next time and it won't surprise me if Sam Spinner does the same.

I hope you're right, and Uno's defeat was related to a his stable lack of form. If so, Yanworth could have a 'walk-in-the-park' for a fruitful Festival (finally).

Sam Spinner looks a much better horse than BG to me.
Certainly beat Harry a lot further,best 3m performance of the season by some way imo.

Could be Bud, but I still think that last years field was stronger and with the sad demise of Nicholls Canyon, Unow has the best form and the previous years Stayers has often been the best guide.

Yanworth is firming up into jtfav (here)with Supasundae, the drifter is Sam Spinner. I think this is related to the media road show at Harrington. But I hope it is JP's money for the price contraction of Yanworth.

The rails turn they're back on jp but sure not to worry I'll get a few 10er on ante post

Is there only me that fancies The New One for the stayers? I've a very fair 18/1 about him for this race, level weights he must surely have a chance. The distance is the unknown of course, hence the decent price. Its a long time since he ran 21 furlongs at Cheltenham but won them all and finished a close second to Fishers Cross over half a furlong shorter, more recently finishing behind Buveur D'Air over 20 furlongs was a decent performance then giving away weight to L'Ami Serge in the Select Hurdle at Sandown after two hard races at Cheltenham and Aintree was another good performance.

Tough one to call TT.

Recent examples like Nichols Canyon and Solwhit both offer hope and Celestial Halo finished second in the Stayers at his first attempt at 3m.  I did think that The New One has a few too many miles on the clock these days, but Celestial Halo's place was his 35th race, this will be The New One's 37th.

It's one of those where if he won, I wouldn't be surprised, but I can personally see him placing, but will struggle to win - they've tried this a couple of years too late in my opinion.  When he was badly hampered behind Our Conor I think they had every right to try again the following year, but when he was thumped by Faugheen, I think they should have drawn stumps on 2m then.

I agree with all of that Wellchief, I'll be happy with a place having backed him each way. This is his busiest season ever having already had five races but he shows no signs of fatigue, that last race win was a cracking effort giving weight away to a 156 rated horse three years his junior. The going could be in his favour if it turns softer than soft, just the niggling doubt about the distance.

Good luck with it mate - if he wins then he'd be a really popular winner.

I personally think he'll get the distance ok, he never looked like stopping over 2.5m when he won those Grade 1's a few years ago - it's the number of hard slogs that he's had over the years that'd worry me.  You're dead right about beating Ch'tibello last time - no world beater by any means, but giving weight to a mid 150's is a decent run, especially over what is now a distance too short....of note, Yanworth beat that same rival by the same distance, over 2m, giving the same weight at this point last year and went off favourite for the Champion Hurdle!!!

You'll get a good run for your money and wouldn't put anyone off having an ew flutter at 18's.  Yanworth not one for me, Supasundae possible stamina doubts, Penhill not seen anywhere, Bacardys falling over fences, Sam Spinner still a bit of an unknown - I'm talking myself in to backing him

Its a real quality field for the Stayers this year, and along with the Gold Cup and  QM, these are the 3 races that intrigue me most.

I cant ever remember a better Stayers hurdle on potential. Its usually contested by horses who'd have no chance in a Champion Hurdle but Yanworth and Supasundae are proper Grade 1 winners at 2m. TNO also even if getting on in years.Harry getting on too but is consistent. Lil Rockefeller gave it a real go last year. Wholestone loves the place. Penhill and Bacardys were top class novices.

Yanworth will be my strongest bet of the week.

Ffs boys why is everyone still fascinated with the New 1. He's been winning the Champion every yr for the last few years and now the World Hurdle. He's no chance!!

Correct

Being 3rd, 4th and 5th twice in the Champion Hurdle hardly has failure written all over it!! It has no bearing on how he will run in the Stayers Hurdle over an extra mile. No one is 'fascinated' with the horse, just stating our opinions, thats all.

Fascinated? About 4 posts out of 155 in this thread relate to The New One.

Someone comes on here and tries to state a logical case for an outsider, I reckon the least people could do is hear them out and respect their opinion...it's how a good forum should work.

Every runner has a sporting chance especially The new One - he's credential and form but stamina is taken on trust. Yanworth is clear fav (here); he could start fav, all things being equal.

I really fancy TNO and think he's a ridiculous price. I think he has the the touch of class that the others lack - plus he's as tough as old boots and invariably runs well at the festival.
I respect Supasundae, as he too could have the requisite class.
I'll take those two against the field.
After backing him the last three years, I'm finally confident that Yanworth just ain't a Festival winner. Cue romp.

just bet apples jade for this at 14 to 1 nrnb they can have my money for a couple of weeks but if something happens saddle slips, falls at the first in the mares, they could even change there mind i will have a nice bet

^^done Apple's Jade, and Samcro just incase the going is heavy.

How does heavy ground make them run here?

He's backed Samcro in every race he can think of (including the Mares Hurdle, most likely)
I wouldn't let it concern you AC.

What I meant was should the ground come up heavy Samcro could be diverted to the Supreme instead.

could miss the boat over too.

This is looking good for Yanworth with the likelihood of softish ground (at best) which would stretch the stamina of Supasundae to the limit; Yanworth is also a higher rated hurdler than Sam Spinner.

Very soft ground will just make Yanworth even slower and mean his mistakes are even more costly as making the ground back up will use up stmaina.
He might even fail due to lack of stamina anyway given he has mainly be campaigned over 2 to 2 1/2 miles and only ever raced once at 3m on good ground on a sharp track.
Clearly soft ground isn't in Supasundaes favour but there are plenty of proven stayers in there.

Unowhatimeanharry is gradually creeping back into contention. His price has contracted significantly the last few days. A forgotten horse, he is no longer, and only 12 from 22 here.

Not sure why!!

The Sizing John/Djakadam effect perhaps.

You mean the fact his proven to be high class and acts well at the Festival.

Sam Spinner tonked him and i cannot see that being turned around.
Could be an e/w shout i guess.

His trainer reckoned Unowhatimeanharry was turned out again too quickly post his seasonal debut victory. I hope he's correct;  Unowhatimeanharry was my banker for this at the outset of the new season.

In what world was he a banker?  He got well beat last year and is getting old.

PS: not saying he can’t win and depending on other results I’ll be cheering him on.

Yanworth is high class. Won over the trip. Far from ideal prep but he is the class act and has beaten supasunadae over the trip.

He also got beat by Beer Goggles who is below the required level.
All in all his form this season is not good enough,and as Uncle says hes getting on a tad now.
Tough stayer on his day though.

Yanworth hard to read but has more ability than all these combined. As such, will take a chance.

Yep,Yanworth the one to beat imo.

Has this ^ thing had an outing over hdls this season?

The horse has not.
Not at all bothered about that.

Sometimes they jump a bit big after reverting tho

47 horses have ran in a Grade 1 hurdle at the festival having NOT ran in a hurdle race lto.....All lost

im on penhill but i see sam spinner as a very big danger
penhill has the toe
and s s has the stamina
great race ahead

Supasundae going to take an awful lot of beating for me.

Yanworth only just beat him at Aintree and Jessie said she felt he was slightly over the top by then after a hard season. Has apparently matured, and filled out and improved no end this year. Had a great prep, wants better ground and has a great record at the Festival.

Think Yanworth will do very well to confirm that Aintree form myself on the back of their respective seasons and preps.

I've come round to thinking Sam Spinner is overpriced for this, especially with all the rain forecast next Wednesday (if it materialises).

Not convinced Supasundae stays. Think he flattered last time out. Not won at Cheltenham and far too short on what he has achieved for me.

Charwell. Supasundae hasn't won at Cheltenham?! Need to re-read the formbook mate

Yanworth beat him less than a length when they met over 3m and he seemed to stay well enough that day to my eyes.

Sorry CCM, meant to say at this trip @ chelt. Think the uphill finish will find him out.

Agree re Sam Spinner, should be fav on form this season.
I do think Yanworth has a touch of class that maybe others don't,but I do fear Sam Spinner as we know he stays well and has the best form we have seen this season imo.
I am also not convinced about Supasundae getting home well enough,but be silly to say he cant win.

I think the ones at the top of the market (unless Apple's Jade gatecrashes) that have no stamina issue at this trip are Sam Spinner, Yanworth, Penhill and Unowhatimeanharry. On the other hand, Supasundae has not won at the trip, was outstayed by Yanworth at Aintree and better on good ground. As such I'd tend to discount his chance in this competitive looking contest.

L'Ami Serge does not stay 3m either. He was outstayed in the JLT despite taking it up 2 out; he won a very weak race at Auteuil.

Penhill is talented but his prep is far from satisfactory; this is his 1st race back from an injury after about a year.

Sam Spinner has been running in handicap races, is improving beat and beat L'Ami Serge (travelled well but found nothing 1 out) and a below par Unowhatimeanharry. If the form is genuine he'll have a 1st class chance, but I'm yet to be convinced.

Yanworth (on merit and hope) and Unowhatimeanharry (hope) are my two against the field.

I think with doubts about some of them Wholestone could run into a place @ 16/1 too.

Definitely worried about Supasundaes stamina on soft tacky going (which I think looks assured).
Even on decent ground I can see him swinging on the bridle as they make the long run between the last two flights but then get done up the hill. Like Annie Power when she came 2nd.
Hope I'm wrong though.

L'ami Serge stays every yard of 3 miles, the problem is that he does nothing off of the bridal, if I could convince myself that they'd find an answer to that question I'd back him, the race looks wide open to me and wouldn't be surprised if something from left field came and won it.

^^I'd beg to differ. I understand his constitution is suspect and so is his stamina over 3m, I believe.

L'Ami Serge took it up with 2 to jump in the JLT but got past very soon after similarly in the Relkeel after jumping into the lead at the last. He was beaten by Shaneshill (not a 3m Gp1 horse), Agrapat , Afzal and Black Hercules; he's always flattered to deceive.

I think his best run was his 2nd in the Supreme behind Douvan after a poor start and troubled passage in the race.

He was fourth in Douvan's Supreme not 2nd.

He's only run three times over 3 miles plus - all since June last year - finishing 123.

Basically agree with Duffy - was disappointed - but not surprised - by his finishing effort behind Sam Spinner, on the other hand his effort behind Arctic Fire in last year's County should not be forgotten either.

Can't see him out of the first three but hard to trust him to be in the first one.

I meant L'Ami Serge's 4th in the Supreme and not 2nd.

A bit strange Yanworth has been drifting a touch lately given the probable conditions he'd like next week.

Speaking of L'Ami Serge, I see he has been left in the Ryanair. That race looks like cutting up and I can totally see him running in it now Top Notch is out. The owners would still have Wholestone for the Stayers Hurdle.

40/1 nrnb is a bit silly for Ryanair. He's far better than that.

We all love these "enigmas" don't we, I wouldn't want him in the Ryanair personally because for a horse like him, coming up the likes of UDS who basically tends to find extra on the run in forcing L'ami to seriously come off of the bridal is not what he'd want.

To be honest he'd have to do the same in a stayers albeit perhaps not to the same degree, however Yanworth is a bit iffy himself when hitting the front, Supasundae is a questionable stayer and SS is stepping up in class and is fav.

If we'd seen more from Penhill he'd be interesting, it's a big leap from an AB but I was really impressed with how he ran away from his rivals at the end of that race which is typically more grueling, he looked like he was just finishing off a 2 miler, Punchestown is probably his main target although he seems to be getting support, he's quite short.

The New One.......its all gone on the pink side!!!!

L'ami Serge is the ultimate bridle ponce. But a high class ponce nonetheless!

I have backed SamSpinner ante post, will back L'ami because he will be there 2 out on the bridle and a good trade and you never know he might love the red hot pace and find.

& i have to back Colin's Sister, i backed her for every race last cheltenham at odds of 500+. on the bus she was a nr  at least i saw a grade 2 orse, ridden differently she may improve.

Also on Bacardys but i dont think he is good enough.

Liking Harry's chances more with every drop of rain. 12/1 e/w looks very fair

Connections of Yanworth must be breathing a sigh of relief he was not in the RSA the way Presenting Percy hosed up. Could he do it here tomorrow? I hope so after last year's Neptune.

If tonight's rain comes as forecast, Yanworth will love the ground tomorrow.

If ur aunty had balls.....