Cheltenham Festival
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He's drifted to 12 on here (from 8) while the other market leaders have shortened. Are we about to hear of a setback?
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No setback, but it seems strange how unfancied he is, both for Saturday's race and the Gold Cup.
With regard to the latter, he's the one they have to beat. His feat of winning the Irish, Cheltenham and Punchestown Gold Cups was remarkable. He's still only seven and, while the form may not be the strongest, there should surely be room for improvement on the one hand and, on the other, he may not need to improve. His price, in comparison to Thistlecrack, seems way too long. He's fit, (apparently) ready to go, and at 10/1 surely the value in the market at present. |
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Sizing John (SJ) and Don Cossack (DC) both beat Djakadam by almost the same margin (1 length difference only) yet the former is 7/1 here, but SJ never wins spectacularly; if DC was running he'd be a short price fav eg 2/1 for the Gold Cup, I believe. Maybe the stable of Harrington is not as high profile as Elliot.
A reigning GC champion at 7/1 is very rare. |
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I agree with your view of SZ's price but would have to take issue with the premise.
Don Cossack beat Djakadam by 7 lengths at Punchestown and 4 and a half lengths in the Gold Cup. The first occasion he powered clean away from him after the last, the second he went for home at the bend and was looking around and idling badly up the run-in. I'd say he was different class to Djakadam. However, Sizing John may not need to be in that class to win another Gold Cup and his price continues to surprise me. (As does Djakadam's - I've been picking up bits of 50 and 60 - though I doubt many will agree). |
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Of the main challengers to SJ eg:-
1) Thistlecrack (distance/well-being unsure) 2) Might Bite (GC distance/track unsure) 3) Native River (beaten last year) 4) Yorkhill (target/stamina unsure/susceptible to running freely/could revert back to hurdling if jumping left (again) 5) BDM (beaten last year/might not get very soft ground/track unsure SJ is only 8yrs old and improving. If showing his well-being in the John Durkan his price would shorten significantly. Personally, the two unknowns could be Our Duke (if back to his best after an injury), and Min (if GC bound). |