Cheltenham Festival
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Along with the County Hurdle, my favourite handicap of the festival, and no, I have no idea who will win!
I suppose for this race you are either in the camp that Tombstone is absolutely thrown in at the weights and should have been raised more, and he's a potenital Champion Hurdle horse, or his last run was against Jezki who didn't run his race. I'm in the latter camp.
I think that Jezki bounced, on ground he wouldn't of liked and he is not a 167 horse (the rating he was going into that race). Don't get me wrong it was a good run by Tombstone, but he was only 5.25 lengths ahead of Rashaan, who was giving him 8lbs. Take Jezki out of that race and you'd say it was an ok run by a horse who was beaten by Renetti fair and square the time before; hardly the handicap standout for the festival imo - all revolves around how you view Jezki I suppose. I do think the step up to 2.5m is a positive for Tombstone though.
Modus looks a different horse this year, with two excellent handicap runs, but I think he has blown his mark now off 156, and he'd be the highest ever rated winner of this. Bleu et Rouge back hurdling is an interesting one, as his jumping was all over the place in his last couple of chase runs; he is the same weight as Tombstone, but he beat him fairly comfortably in the Deloitte last year and was only 1.5 lengths behind Limini at Aintree giving her 4lbs.
The one that I like is Kalondra of Neil Mulholland. This is his only entry and absolutely bolted up at Huntington last time, and has gone up 12lbs for that, but I think he was value for far more than the 11 length win, and could still find more improvement. He was being ridden along turning for home at the back of the field, and then got a second wind a sauntered home and won as he liked. A strongly run 2.5m is what he needs because he looked out of his comfort zone going slower than he would have liked.
He's as short as 12/1 with Coral, but 25/1 nrnb is available, which I think is a great price, and hopefully Noel Fehily will be on board again. He's been beaten fair and square by Modus this year, receiving weight, but with Modus' likely 11st 12 in this, that will be hard to carry in a Coral Cup.
This is a race where you could throw a dart at the race card to pick your winner, but any strong views on any runners would be welcomed. I've zoomed in on Kalondra and Bleu et Rouge, but I'm sure people will pick holes in both of them.
I suppose for this race you are either in the camp that Tombstone is absolutely thrown in at the weights and should have been raised more, and he's a potenital Champion Hurdle horse, or his last run was against Jezki who didn't run his race. I'm in the latter camp.
I think that Jezki bounced, on ground he wouldn't of liked and he is not a 167 horse (the rating he was going into that race). Don't get me wrong it was a good run by Tombstone, but he was only 5.25 lengths ahead of Rashaan, who was giving him 8lbs. Take Jezki out of that race and you'd say it was an ok run by a horse who was beaten by Renetti fair and square the time before; hardly the handicap standout for the festival imo - all revolves around how you view Jezki I suppose. I do think the step up to 2.5m is a positive for Tombstone though.
Modus looks a different horse this year, with two excellent handicap runs, but I think he has blown his mark now off 156, and he'd be the highest ever rated winner of this. Bleu et Rouge back hurdling is an interesting one, as his jumping was all over the place in his last couple of chase runs; he is the same weight as Tombstone, but he beat him fairly comfortably in the Deloitte last year and was only 1.5 lengths behind Limini at Aintree giving her 4lbs.
The one that I like is Kalondra of Neil Mulholland. This is his only entry and absolutely bolted up at Huntington last time, and has gone up 12lbs for that, but I think he was value for far more than the 11 length win, and could still find more improvement. He was being ridden along turning for home at the back of the field, and then got a second wind a sauntered home and won as he liked. A strongly run 2.5m is what he needs because he looked out of his comfort zone going slower than he would have liked.
He's as short as 12/1 with Coral, but 25/1 nrnb is available, which I think is a great price, and hopefully Noel Fehily will be on board again. He's been beaten fair and square by Modus this year, receiving weight, but with Modus' likely 11st 12 in this, that will be hard to carry in a Coral Cup.
This is a race where you could throw a dart at the race card to pick your winner, but any strong views on any runners would be welcomed. I've zoomed in on Kalondra and Bleu et Rouge, but I'm sure people will pick holes in both of them.
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I think Nicholls has aimed a couple at this, Lac Fortana & Tommy Silver are on my shortlist so far.
Lac Fortana ran a most promising race last time out, now on a similar rating to when he won the harder county hurdle a few years back. Looking forward to all Pauls entries in the handicaps, he is sure to have a few lined up as he has now woken up and adjusted his methods in line with the others. |
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Nice piece chief
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hargram and modus were my antepost bets for this one
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worried now my 2 are kalondra and tommy silver,great minds think alike or fools agree,
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I think Hargam will end up in the County dragon, I've backed him nrnb in this and the County, but I suspect he'll be in the latter, especially as he's unproven past 2m.
No shows in his last three runs, but he really needs good ground - Henderson always at pains to say that in his Triumph Hurdle year. If he can replicate that form off 140 (down 15lbs this year alone) then he has to go close. His one win since his Juvenile days this year wasn't too bad. He beat solid mid 140's horses like Court Minstrel, Mr Miyagi and Rayvin Black, so the ability must still be there and now off a winnable mark. His subsequent runs have JP plot written all over them. |
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1st time
, I think it's definitely the fools bit. |
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cheers wc will have a dip on him in the county as well then
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bred to stay .
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Henderson said he could ho further?
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Joined: 24 Dec 03 | Topic/replies: 266 | Blogger: Shrews's blog
Sporting Life stable tour (October 2016) http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/article/465/10624812/nicky-henderson-stable-tour-for-2016-17 "He has already run twice this season. He had difficult year but he is in the same boat as Top Notch. He would jump fence if we wanted him to but he would only be going around the little tracks as he is a little horse. "He is still a very good hurdler and I think he will get more than two miles. It takes lot to get him fit. He is tough, solid and game." |
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If he runs him in the Coral then so be it - I've backed him 33 nrnb in both. If running in this, I would have liked him to have at least tried 2.5m before though. From Gaultstats: 15 from last 18 had won in UK or Ire between 2m 2f and 2m 6f over hurdles
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Also, just seems stange to me that if he is bred to go further and could be stepped up in trip, why they have persevered with him over 2m for 14 races. Maybe the step up will bring some improvement - hope so
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Quite pleased with my book in this race. On Hargam at 50/1 and 33/1 NRNB, but as WC says, Inthink he will go for the County. Hope he does, as although he might improve for the step up in trip, it's a big unknown. He looks a nailed on plot and everything will be perfect for him in the County.
I'm in the Tombstone is absolutely thrown in camp myself and have backed him at 8/1. Was very surprised at the mark he was given and can't have him out of the frame. But my main fancy for this is Peregrine Run and on at 20/1. Connections were talking about the Albert Bartlett but when they saw his mark, they couldn't resist going down the handicapping route. His winning form over C&D looks fantastic to me. Beating Wholestone and West Approach. He travelled like a dream that day, has to have good ground and will get that here. |
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Peregrine Run does look to have good form CCM, he wasn't on my radar, but see he is now at 10/1.
You're right in that the run against Wholestone and West Approach is good form, and 140 looks a good mark. When I saw in his next run he was beaten by a 127 horse, it didn't look good, but then I saw it was Willoughby Court who is now 10's for the G1 Neptune, rated 147. All in all, his form ties in well with some of those at the top of the Neptune and Albert Bartlett markets. I'll keep an eye on his price, and may have a small ew punt when the bookies go 5 places ew. |
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Also, he hated the ground at Warwick I think mate, but still travelled amazingly well on it, then found nothing. They've been clear all along he's a different horse on decent ground. Not much juice left in his price, but he's a really big one for me for the week.
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Hendo has confirmed Hargam probably goes for this. Bit annoyed as hoped he and Peregrine Run would be in different races
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Hottest hcap by far. fancy so many for it
Tombstone Mister Miyagi Peregrine Run Hargam Supasundae Waxies Dargle Automated |
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Is Tombstone running in this and not the County Hurdle? Elliott was talking about the Friday race for him at the Betfair Preview night
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33.0 on here for county with virtually nothing to back 5.8 for Coral Cup with plenty to back just above so market currently says Tombstone .
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Hargam confirmed for the Coral Cup with Mark Walsh on board wearing first time cheekpieces.
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Scoire Mear @ 25/1 for me.
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Scoire Mear for me too. If he takes to the course, he good run well at a massive price.
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Also like Peregrine Run, the profile looks right, Irish had runs in England, got handicap weight known early, won at Chelters, best wins on good better ground, beaten on softer latest. That's my main fancy in this, with Scoire Mear next best, at rewarding odds.
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There is a whisper that Scoir Mear didn't travel over well
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Both Peregrine Run & particularly Tombstone on Jezki run look to be the classic handicap blots so either of these 2 could dot up. I have Tombstone as a cover bet @ 5's, but my main bet will be Taquin Du Seuil (around 20's on Betfair). Ran really well in a G3 handicap hurdle, staying on over 2m 4f on his reappearance, then won the big handicap Chase here in November off 156. With a current chase mark of 160, his hurdle mark of 148 looks very workable. Has other good course form and the trip looks ideal so can see a big run.
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have done The Romford Pele each way at a big price hoping the ground is much more good than good to soft
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