Cheltenham Festival

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02 Mar 17 18:02
Date Joined: 23 Jun 07
| Topic/replies: 2,796 | Blogger: Hibore's blog
I always like to try to find something lurking in the handicaps and get a decent bet on.
My selection this year is Starchitect running in the Grand Annual. A proven festival performer who is running off a 8lb lower mark than his hurdles mark after some very clever placing. I believe this may be the best handicapped horse running all week and one of my main bets of the meeting. I think this could go off as low as 5/1 if momentum builds.

Any thoughts or other selections through the week ?
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Report tema March 2, 2017 6:16 PM GMT
Tell us more - county.
Report dunlaying March 2, 2017 7:55 PM GMT
Foxtail Hill could , possibly , be dropped in. One only has to look at his last effort to see why.
Report Can't Catch Me March 3, 2017 7:46 AM GMT
Peregrine Run in the Coral Cup.
Report charlieptl March 3, 2017 8:55 AM GMT
Peregrine Run in the Coral Cup is mine as well. Divin Bere in the FW is a close second
Report sageform March 3, 2017 9:10 AM GMT
Certainly not a snip but the Ultima handicap looks interesting for 2 trainers, Tizzard and Mulholland. Viconte de Noyer is only 3lb higher than when winning over c/d in November and Shantou Village is unbeaten when completing over fences and was trying to give 9lb to Frodon when falling last time. I won't be backing anything until the 5 day stage but those are the ones that catch my eye.
Report sageform March 3, 2017 9:13 AM GMT
On second thoughts I have just backed them nrnb in case you all pile onHappy
Report sabolah1 March 3, 2017 9:39 AM GMT
Sageform, shantou most likely to run in the plate, subject to ground, agree he looks well handicapped on his form amd profile and Neil likes the horse. Re Ultima Druids nephew , young master and pilgrims bay ( unlikely to get in) are targeted  , Druid is very well at home and very pleased with him at moment. Also has good chance in Kim muir with Southfield royale , strong form in Kauto star splitting tea for three and native river and again in 4 miler . Had a slight issue early in season and Doncaster run was needed, handicapper dropped him 6lbs for that so now off 141 and looks well treated given proximity to quality horses last season.
Report Jb23 March 3, 2017 9:45 AM GMT
Joe Tizzard napped Sizing Codelco in the Plate last night at a Preview evening. Seemed bullish over its chances but realise there is probably an element of bias.
Report duffy March 3, 2017 2:18 PM GMT
Bravission/Battleford MP.

Squouoateur Kim Muir.
Report duffy March 3, 2017 2:19 PM GMT
Bravissimo that should be.
Report wellchief March 3, 2017 2:49 PM GMT
Peace News in either the Martin Pipe or County Hurdle - strong favourite for the Royal Bond G1 this year, and likely to have finished second behind Airlie Beach, and was one of the early season favourites for the Supreme.  Tailed off since then, but been in G1's and G2's all year, so I think he could have a big run in him.

Rock the Kasbah is one I like in the 3m chase on day one.  142 is a very workable mark imo, fav for last year's Coral Cup but didn't run his race.  Only beaten 4 lengths by Politalogue, who is third fav for the JLT.  He has JLT and RSA entries, but this looks more up his street to me.

25/1 nrnb available for all three races.
Report Can't Catch Me March 3, 2017 3:32 PM GMT
Peace News has been a bit of a cliff horse for me this year WC as there was loads of hype about him... but he seems  to be regressing to me. His last run was awful. Just doesn't seem to be a horse that particularly enjoys racing to me.

But good luck anyway, I know I will be obliged to have a little something on him as have backed him every run so far!
Report wellchief March 3, 2017 3:49 PM GMT
Haha, yeah I get that mate - he seemed a really promising one after his debut - a few hype ones have been at the head of the Supreme market this year and fell away.  I agree his last couple of runs wouldn't make you want to back him, and not suggesting he has been laid out for a handicap, but there is ability in there somewhere having ran in Graded races all year (a bit like Hargam, who I know you like, but figures of 000 don't inspire confidence but you know you just need him on a going day off a lenient mark).

I only have a small play in the handicaps, so I'll have a couple of quid on a few outsiders like him and Hargam.
Report Ming_the_Merciless March 4, 2017 8:10 AM GMT
Sutton Manor in the Pertempts is a freekin joke. 16/1 right now, only Gigginstown runner and been ridden kindly until it had to win to get in the race, our handicapper has nailed him 10lb and Elliot says at the Betfair preview night that he cant win now.

Fill yer boots.
Report willie the milk March 5, 2017 9:38 AM GMT
I know he is getting on but Holywell has a cracking festival record with 2 wins a 2nd last year and was 4th to Coneygree in the GC. Jonjo always has him primed for Cheltenham and he gets into the Ultimo off 148, 5 less than last year when 2nd. 14s nrnb is decent and will be lower on the day. GL
Report The Dragon March 5, 2017 11:16 AM GMT
startichect is fav atb9/1 for grand annual
Report Hibore March 5, 2017 11:48 AM GMT
Starchitect was 14/1 nrnb and 16/1 straight antepost a few days ago. Interesting that Pipe hasn't mentioned the horse on his blog as far as I could see...normally comments one way or another regarding festival weights.
Report buddeliea March 5, 2017 11:57 AM GMT
Gordon Elliott is confident Diamond King will raise his game for the Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate at the Cheltenham Festival.
The eight-year-old won the Coral Cup at the showpiece fixture last season and looked an exciting recruit to the novice chasing ranks when bolting up on his debut at Galway in October.
He has since come up short in the Drinmore Novice Chase at Fairyhouse and a Grade Two at Limerick on St Stephen's Day, but Elliott feels his charge will show his true colours on his first start in a handicap over fences at Prestbury Park.
"Diamond King is great and on a bit of good ground you'll see a much better horse," said the Cullentra handler.
"He was very good in Galway and just couldn't get out of it in Limerick the last day. I'm looking forward to running him in the two-mile-five handicap."
Diamond King is just one of a whole host of leading chances in the Festival handicaps for Elliott, who currently leads the race to be crowned champion trainer in Ireland.

Discussing some of his other hopes, the trainer added: "Noble Endeavor goes for the Ultima Handicap Chase on the first day.
"Jamie (Codd) said he wasn't beaten in the four miler (National Hunt Chase) last year when he came down and he was only just behind Native River.
"His form round Cheltenham is good. He was second in a Martin Pipe and he was running a massive race last year.
"The Pertemps Final was a race we had in mind for Jury Duty, but when he won in Navan in November he got a nasty cut and we were running out of time to get him qualified.
"That's why we took him to Chepstow the other week and thankfully he's now qualified. He's a horse I'm looking forward to running.
"Automated is going for the Coral Cup. I think the race will suit him as he likes passing horses and he'll like the better ground.
"Cause Of Causes and Bless The Wings will run in the cross-country. Keith Donoghue will ride Bless The Wings and hopefully Jamie will ride Cause Of Causes.
"Tiger Roll goes for the four-miler. He could surprise you any day of the week. You'll know after jumping two fences if it's a going day or an off-day.
"If Jamie doesn't ride him I might let Lisa O'Neill ride him. She's working hard here in the yard and she's a hardy bit of stuff.
"It would be some double, a Triumph Hurdle and a four-miler, from one extreme to the other."
Report buddeliea March 5, 2017 11:59 AM GMT
Be nice to meet Lisa O'Neill !!!
Report The Dragon March 5, 2017 12:32 PM GMT
a hardy bit of stuff????????? oh dear
Report Cash Is King March 6, 2017 1:24 AM GMT
Lots of posters tipping the talking horses that are getting bigged up at the Preview Evenings - Noble Endeavour, Diamond King, Starchitect etc.  Coincidence or lack of original thinking?

I think Hobbs has got some interesting entries in the handicaps and I'm keen on Brother Tedd and Drumlee Sunset in the day 1 novice hcap chase and Golden Doyen and For Good Measure in the Pertemps on day 3.

Three other horses that I'm very sweet on are No Comment (Coral Cup), Henderson's Rather Be (Martin Pipe) and King's William H Bonney (County) but looking unlikely that any of the 3 will make the cut for their chosen races,
Report sageform March 6, 2017 7:09 AM GMT
Philip Hobbs mentioned Brother Ted in an interview recently. I am a bit worried about stable form lately though. A few running well but a lot of fancied ones stopping to a trot as well.
Report charlieptl March 6, 2017 3:14 PM GMT
Re what you said Cash Is King, I think it depends on the price. Diamond King at 5's hardly requires any thinking and could hardly be described as lurking in the handicaps - he is short priced favorite. I have Noble Endeavor at a big price in the Ultima. Do I lack original thinking or have I punted well at a big price backing a horse that is receiving lots of support. Ps, that's not a bad thing.
Report duffy March 6, 2017 3:28 PM GMT

They had a go last year and it went off short in the MP off of 141. Been running over too short a trip all winter and gets into the Kim Muir off of 135. This horse wants a trip and  Elliott and Mcmanus won the race last year. Blue across the board on oddschecker, 12's now but will go off single figures by the looks of it.
Report Cash Is King March 6, 2017 4:02 PM GMT
Anyone who has backed one of the talking horses early doors at a big price deserves praise. Anyone tipping and backing one of the talking horses now that the value has gone probably needs their head examining.

Some people have no imagination - every Pipe or Elliott trained horse or McManus owned horse is likely to get a mention sooner rather than later.
Report ReaseHeath March 6, 2017 4:13 PM GMT
Kings Odyssey, Festival Plate

Only other entry is Ryanair - presumably in case he does n't get in the Plate (looks like he should do) - and I actually think he'd run a big race in the Ryanair.

Last run was bordering on the comical, before that traveled sweetly in the Caspian Caviar before capsizing and only other run this season behind Cloudy Dream at Haydock was surely a pipe opener for fitness over a trip too short.

Winning form is on soft ground but he's by Kings Theatre so normal festival ground should n't present a problem. 

The trouble is of course you need decent luck in running even if you've spotted one correctly.
Report maelduin March 7, 2017 1:58 PM GMT
Golden Spear - Martin Pipe (16/1 NRNB BFS)

Needs to win the Imperial Cup on Saturday to have a chance at getting in the County or Martin Pipe. I think the extra 4f of the MP would be ideal. Also Tony Martin has a really smart conditional in Donagh Meyler. Tough ask but the bonus has been done before.
Report Jb23 March 7, 2017 2:35 PM GMT
Nice shout with Donagh Meyler, maelduin. Just chucked a few quid at I shot the Sheriff in the MP. Ran an encouraging race on Sunday after a significant lay off for Tony Martin. Should almost definitely get a run, should this be his target. 25s NRNB bit of a bet to nothing for like you say, a really smart conditional.
Report Can't Catch Me March 7, 2017 4:19 PM GMT
I think Tombstone is an absolute stand out.

Looks like he wont be supplemented for the Champion Hurdle now, but will be taking up one of his entries in either the County or the Coral Cup. The fact they were even considering the CH speaks volumes imo. His never nearer 4th in the Supreme last year looks like top class form and suggests the step up in trip for the Coral Cup will be ideal, and based on the betting on here the last couple of days, that looks like it will be the race for him.

Im amazed he's only got a mark of 149 for winning the Red Mills last time, as I still think Jezki is a decent tool. Hes got everything I look for in a Festival handicap winner... Graded form and Festival form. Hardly a sexy price, but still available at 8/1 and I think he's absolutely thrown in.
Report easygold March 7, 2017 6:34 PM GMT
Tully East (Close Brothers H.Chase) Tues, the handbrakes will be taking off... caught the eye in the Martin Pipe last year... hopefully O`Regan is at his best
Report wellchief March 7, 2017 7:18 PM GMT
One of Gordon Elliot's that I like is Brelade; but he is entered into the County, Coral, Martin Pipe and Neptune, but the markets suggest he'll be in the Coral or the Martin Pipe off 143.

His most recent run behind Bacardys and Bunk off Early was a brilliant run against two very high class looking novices, who are near the head of the Supreme and Neptune.  Before that he ran Saturnas to a couple of lengths, back when Saturnus was the talking horse for the Supreme.

Both of these races look to be over a trip too short, and when you have a 2nd in a Future Champions Novice Hurdle and close 3rd in a Deloitte in a handicap, I like to take note.

143 would put him near top weight in the Martin Pipe, but would give him a nice racing weight in the Coral Cup.  His 30 runner maiden hurdle that he won shows he can cope with big fields too.

20/1 nrnb for the Coral and 25/1 nrnb for the Martin Pipe look very fair prices to me, considering the prices of Bacardys (5/1) and Bunk off Early (7/1) in Grade 1 novice races.
Report DECALEC March 7, 2017 8:32 PM GMT
What with 25 not off are you sure
Report maelduin March 8, 2017 12:26 PM GMT
@Jb23 Looks like GE has nabbed Donagh Meyler for The Storyteller. Sad Will be interesting to see the riding arrangements if Golden Spear manages to qualify for this race. GL
Report Brownie3 March 8, 2017 4:38 PM GMT

Mar 6, 2017 -- 9:28AM, duffy wrote:

SquouateurThey had a go last year and it went off short in the MP off of 141. Been running over too short a trip all winter and gets into the Kim Muir off of 135. This horse wants a trip and  Elliott and Mcmanus won the race last year. Blue across the board on oddschecker, 12's now but will go off single figures by the looks of it.

Think Codd will be riding also!

Report Cash Is King March 8, 2017 7:32 PM GMT
I had hoped that Harry Fry would run Air Horse One in either the County or the Coral Cup but it seems as if he's more likely to run at Sandown on Saturday.

Two I like for the Plate on Thursday are Gary Moore's Baron Alco and Kim Bailey's Un Ace.

Baron Alco has landed wins at Plumpton which mean he'll land a £60k bonus if he wins any race at the Festival. The Plate is the target and my only concern would be that he might not have the 7-12 lbs in hand of his current mark (of 146) that you generally need to land a Festival handicap.

Un Ace went off near favourite in the Plate 2 years ago since when he's run consistently well notwithstanding that Bailey has been running him over trips that he doesn't stay and/or on ground that he doesn't like. If it was good going and he made the cut I'd expect him to run well at a big price off a mark 7 lbs lower than the mark (of 144) that he raced off 2 years ago.
Report Deerhunter March 12, 2017 8:31 PM GMT
Day 1 - Brother Tedd in the last seems well treated as chase mark is nearly a stone below his hurdle rating. Hobbs thinks he should go well. Then Holywell in the Ultima, now 5lb lower than when a clear 2nd last year, won same race in 2014, good 4th in the Gold Cup in 2015 shows he goes well on the course. Now a 10 year old and out of form this year, but no doubt being primed for Tuesday. Not huge prices now @ around 12's & 14's respectively, but both look to have handicap marks they should be highly competitive off. We shall see....
Report easygold March 21, 2017 11:36 AM GMT
Nice ride Dennis
Report easygold March 21, 2017 11:37 AM GMT
One N
Report easygold December 14, 2017 5:36 PM GMT
Tully East (Close Brothers H.Chase) Tues, the handbrakes will be taking off... caught the eye in the Martin Pipe last year... hopefully O`Regan is at his best.

Ah yeah, people read everything but very few acknowledge the profits...... but if it lost ??????
Report easygold January 9, 2018 4:56 PM GMT
Report DontBeSakhee January 10, 2018 8:47 PM GMT
Nice EG. Wish I'd spotted the post last year, rather than the bump this year! Some friends I was with backed it, sadly I backed Gold Present and Two Taffs who both followed him home!
Report easygold January 10, 2018 10:42 PM GMT
Ah Sakhee, I wish I got it with a few others but wasn`t to be, sure we are still here to try again thank god.. I might have one next week when I finish the Coral Cup
Report DontBeSakhee January 11, 2018 4:57 PM GMT
The Coral Cup used to be my nemesis. Over 20 years of trying to find the winner and many seconds. I knew I was cursed when I lumped onto Kicks for Free only for a Fiddling Ferdy plot horse to beat the thing by a nose. The very first horse to be beaten that distance at the Festival.

Then suddenly I came good, I had a good AP bet on Diamond King in 2016 and backed Supasundae on the day last year.

Still hate the race as it has hurt me too often, but I have taken an early peek and I quite like the look of Kildisart.
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