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Cheltenham Festival
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Doesn't seem to be huge confidence behind this one for this race? 3/1 + on here and pp and betfair longest on fixed odds. have included in accas at shorter and starting to thk he's a possible non runner.
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There's already a AB thread you didn't need to start a new one
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Whats wrong with the other thread?
And Gordon Elliot's recent stable tour comments were anything but negative. Just think he was too short in a race that is shaping up to be quite competitive now and the price is a correction rather than a drift. |
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For the next 2 weeks you will have people cluttering up this page with unnecessary new threads unfortunately.
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surely there must be a huge danger that some of these irish soft ground specialists get lapped on spring ground.
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By Shantou out of a Presenting mare. Should be less of a worry for him than most.
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Same argument every year and the Irish burn the UK horses for pace. There is no other ground in ireland to race on in the winter.
a lot of Irish relish good jumping ground. We have the best studs in Europe. They breed speed and stamina |
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I would say Death duty being 3/1 is more to do with the emergence of West Approach and Wholestone than a sign of him being withdrawn.
Just the market sorting itself out now there isn't just one overriding favourite |
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West Approach and Wholestone haven't emerged from anywhere, they have been in the betting for this race for nearly 6 months.
The original poster is right, he's a bigger price now than he was 6 weeks ago, and there isn't one new horse in the betting at under 10/1. |
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It's still just a correction though. It's not a 'drift' per se.
Augusta Kate now looks likely to go here and he was too short. |
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Never previously run 3m over hurdles. That's a huge negative if you look at the stats of past winners of the race.
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He'd get the trip standing on his head. I'm sure there was an interview earlier in the season where Elliot mentioned something to the effect that while he is a good horse and does everything right, he wouldn't rate him as highly as No More Heroes and not in the same parish as Don Cossack. I was looking for it there but can't find it.
Horses improve obviously and this lad has done nothing wrong, but I'd say its significant Mullins is so keen to take him on again with Augusta Kate. The combination of the above would nearly put me in the Augusta Kate camp. |
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Elliot said
He probably is a better hurdler than Don Cossack was at the same stage on form |
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on form, I'm talking about the esteem in which he holds him in.
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which to me is more important.
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You're talking about from after he became a chaser and won a GC, of course he holds him in greater esteem after that achievement!! erase the chasing career and go back to the equivalent positions as of where DD is now and he says that DD has the better form.......ultimately DD has to go on and do it over fences of course.
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Pretty sure Elliot recently said DD is the best novice hurdler he has ever had
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Not sure what would have happened had AK not fallen,but I am quiet confident DD will be better over 3m.
Looks as solid as anything all week imo.....bar Altior and Douvan. |
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The statement made by Elliot concerning Death Duty showed the highest regard Elliot has for the horse considering he'd Don Cossack and No More Heroes recently who without a doubt should have won this race in 2015 had Cooper not gone up the rails to challenge when blocked by Milsean (same ownership but trained by Mullins).
I do not feel the extra distance in the AB will inconvenience him given the way he powered away after the last in his last race. There seems to be quite a bit of rain forecast for the next two weekends prior to Cheltenham week, and neither will this inconvenience him. |
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Without a run over 3m he's not for me. Me may be the best potential stayer in the field, he may be the next GC winner, but in races like this I like to see a run over the distance. I'd be prepared to possibly invest if there was some ptp form over 3m, but even the ptp he won was 2m, which is odd? At the price I'm very happy to leave and clap back into the winners enclosure if I'm wrong. Wholestone for me, with a bit Augusta Kate on the day.
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Odd indeed is there such a thing as a P2P over 2m,I've been to a hell of a lot and yet to see 1
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Just had a look.....the P2P was over 2 and half miles.
He won impressively according to R Post. |
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Elliot is treading a path very similar to No More Heroes eg Navan Hurdle----> AB unlike Mullins (Shaneshill) Navan Hurdle----> Supreme; next year most probably (if crediting himself well here) will be RSA bound eventually the King George and then Gold Cup his targets.
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Lots of negatives for layers to latch on to i.e. long break, not run over 3m, maybe soft ground specialist & deep field. Personally think they're playing with fire as he looks like a beast.
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Immaterial now as was 2 years ago but i've just watched the albert bartlett back again there and paused it at key stages of the race and written it below. Not sure NMH would have won anyway but you make your own minds up on that dependant on pocket i suppose but anyways ........
"No more heroes not very fluent over the 4th had to be ridden away from it" I notice Blaklion jumped across him at the 5th, not one i would have been wanting to back at this stage in running either tbh strongly ridden into the flight at the top of the hill and strongly driven str8 after it, however back on the bridle rounding the bend, ish, Whip is extracted but not used as the round the bend, head to 2 out and some small niggles by cooper for the umpteenth time They jump 2 out no more heroes looks strongly ridden to me as cooper ups the ante and wants to win the race, Milsean for me doesn't come across that much, maybe half of a horses width but no more than that. If you ask me cooper went for a gap that was bearly there and paid the price. I doubt he would have won anyways but we will never know that. |
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Lots of show ponies turn up in this race but it’s nearly always won by the ugliest, hairiest, toughest and most brutish horse imaginable. If a trainer can't decide between the Neptune and the Albert Bartlett then, put simply, his horse won't have the guts to win the Albert Bartlett.
Death Duty may be a very special horse but at the prices I'll be more than happy to take him on and if he wins then he'll be the first horse to do so that hasn't previously won over hurdles at 3 miles. |
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The only two certainties in life are death and taxes, or could there be a 3rd one eg Death Duty, running here at Cheltenham tomorrow? Three supposedly good things have bitten the dust so far eg Douvan, Neon Wolf and Unowhatimeanharry.
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I keep rewatching the last race vs Augusta Kate
Still undecided as to whether she would have snatched it from him |
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interesting that a few of the english horses have achieved similar racing post ratings to death duty without receiving any of the kind of build up that he has.
maybe hype ruling it over objectivity but gordon eliot holds this horse in very high regard so will be interesting to see if that confidence is justified. |