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Cheltenham Festival
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With most of the Gold Cup protagonists looking for cut in the ground I've stick a sporting fiver on Zabana at 150s. If it does come up a bit better underfoot, we may have a Lord Windemere type boilover, and this chap has scraps of form on decent ground. A bit of a leap of faith on several fronts, but you can expect that at the price...
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no chance
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Thanks for your positive contribution.
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hmmm tricky.. with all due respect you're probably not going to get a big outsider winning one of the championship races, although the champion hurdle and gold cup look more open than usual.
I would be looking at the novice hurdles and perhaps the bumper for a boil over, perhaps the handicaps as well, will try to post something nearer the festival |
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Johnn, Zabana was one of my shortlist of 3 for this at the start of the season, and his price never went out too much on here during the winter, considering he we was never really mentioned. Highest I got was 100's, but was happy to get 190's and 250's last week. Too good to be true though, and should have realised....read an hour later connections were favouring Ryanair.
If he did take his chance in GC, he'd struggle off a couple of his runs this year, but I keep thinking of that run at Punchestown last May, and he looked great. I'd love him to line up, but I reckon it'l be Ryanair. |
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When was the last 100/1 winner?
Norton's Coin wasn't it? You might get a 'Mister McGoldrick' this season with all the injuries and confused targets, (before you even get to the likely change in going to what they've been racing on and general tomfoolery re handicap marks that goes on) but !00/1-plus? |
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Yep have the photo on my wall , SG riding on Budleigh beach , chances are probably zero though less so on the machine .
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Good post john.
I always believe that there are some under the radar that are way overpriced. Last year just missed out on something special having backed Fagan @ 90/1 (posts on here backing that up before the event, not aftertiming). I have one in mind for this year; won't be 100/1 but will be juicy, and will post on this thread once handicap entries are released and I've had a go myself. |
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yep, good post as it makes you think - two I thought were silly prices were King's Odyssey (750)for Ryanair and Shantou Village (330) for Stayers Hurdle but I won't be backing either because I don't think they're going to run in those races.
It looks like they're going to run King's Odyssey in a handicap at Chepstow over 2 miles on Saturday which is short of his best trip - suspect they're trying to protect his mark and that the target will be the Festival Plate. Shantou Village will probably run in the RSA. So really just two horses who I don't think have yet shown their best for various reasons. |
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Fab, same reasoning for me, if it's the Ryanair so be it, you don't need to lose much at 150. I've backed Djakadam at 16s, which appears more sensible. Cyclops, good luck with yours.
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The two i have done at wacky prices are Frodon for the JLT and intense Tango in the Mares
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I've got a couple with a chance that I backed earlier. £6 @ 1000 on Champagne West. I've laid a chunk, but still left with £2000 if he does it & 140 Acapella Bourgeouis for the RSA, hope Sandra Hughes lets him run obviously. Also on Glaring at 150 for the Supreme but thats looking less likely. Gilgamboa & The Last Samurai are down as neither entered for the Gold Cup.
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I went to have a look for one but the handicap prices are rubbish and the high prices for likely sorts in the better races are probably being placed by connections or stable staff looking for pocket money for non-runners.
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I chucked a few quid at Pingshou for the Supreme on here at 1000. Decent form against William Henry and while he needs to improve markedly to get involved thought it was worth a go. He's only entered for the one race too
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